Guarantees for the Timid / Craps
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:26:54 AM
permalink
I'm thinking about guaranteeing someone who hasn't gambled at a casino before, and is convinced you can expect to lose all the time 'period' at a casino, that he won't lose more than $5 for every 30 come-out rolls if he is at a $5 table and bets the way I tell him [only].
I cover all his losses, for the session, over $5. He eats up to $5 in losses. All of this is session based btw.
He gets the first $5 of anything he wins. I get the next $10, so if he wins $15 I get $10 of it. Then I get half of any of his further winnings.
He has to bet the pass line only with no free odds. This sounds boring but but for a guy who has never played that ought to be OK. He lets me bet his free odds.
30 come-outs at $5, his EV is -$2.10. with these rules we will play up to 60 come-outs if he wants , and then re-evaluate. My purpose is to take all fear away but have my own EV for doing the favor to be slightly positive.
I think I have worked this out correctly, but I sure would like to hear it if I am wrong. Clearly I am setting myself up to possibly have a pretty bad day and if not, it is only going to be so good. I used the WoO webpage that works out some expectations, and decided to look at 2 standard deviations [sigmas]. I get one sigma to be 27.35 and two to be double that, 54.70 [sure hope that is right[g]. So roughly 96% of the time the most to win would be $56.60 and the most to lose $60.80 before any adjustment. Roughly 48% of time I lose $56 [$26.88} or less... or win $10 + [50% * $41.60] [$30.80] or less. Hopefully that is correct but I am worried that the "or less" is skewing things.
Can I get some opinions on this? Thanks a bunch in advance!
I cover all his losses, for the session, over $5. He eats up to $5 in losses. All of this is session based btw.
He gets the first $5 of anything he wins. I get the next $10, so if he wins $15 I get $10 of it. Then I get half of any of his further winnings.
He has to bet the pass line only with no free odds. This sounds boring but but for a guy who has never played that ought to be OK. He lets me bet his free odds.
30 come-outs at $5, his EV is -$2.10. with these rules we will play up to 60 come-outs if he wants , and then re-evaluate. My purpose is to take all fear away but have my own EV for doing the favor to be slightly positive.
I think I have worked this out correctly, but I sure would like to hear it if I am wrong. Clearly I am setting myself up to possibly have a pretty bad day and if not, it is only going to be so good. I used the WoO webpage that works out some expectations, and decided to look at 2 standard deviations [sigmas]. I get one sigma to be 27.35 and two to be double that, 54.70 [sure hope that is right[g]. So roughly 96% of the time the most to win would be $56.60 and the most to lose $60.80 before any adjustment. Roughly 48% of time I lose $56 [$26.88} or less... or win $10 + [50% * $41.60] [$30.80] or less. Hopefully that is correct but I am worried that the "or less" is skewing things.
Can I get some opinions on this? Thanks a bunch in advance!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 2nd, 2011 at 11:40:29 AM
permalink
removed
silly
silly
I Heart Vi Hart
July 2nd, 2011 at 3:18:17 PM
permalink
I think you would be better off giving him the first $20 of the winnings and keeping everything above that for yourself.
July 3rd, 2011 at 5:07:05 AM
permalink
Quote: pacomartinI think you would be better off giving him the first $20 of the winnings and keeping everything above that for yourself.
That's interesting. How could he say no?
Unfortunately I have been unable to figure out how to easily do a wincraps test for this. At least it automatically records things under the game log for ending bankroll. So far I am having to start and stop a separate game for each session. It won't be too hard to get to 10,000 rolls this way, but something better like 100,000 rolls I dunno.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:38:27 AM
permalink
Quote: odiousgambitRoughly 48% of time I lose $56 [$26.88} or less... or win $10 + [50% * $41.60] [$30.80] or less. Hopefully that is correct but I am worried that the "or less" is skewing things.
Since you can not lose exactly $5 for $5 wagers in any session of 30.
From 7Craps Blog table HERE:
From the row with 14 wins/16 loss:
45.8599545% chance of losing $10 or more or about 4 out of 9 sessions will cause this result.
39.74% chance of winning $10 or more or about 4 out of 10 sessions will cause this result
Looks like 7Craps blog has already answered your questions and has a few WC screen shots. Your math is fine, you are just applying it to a small sample size of 30 as 7Craps did. Your numbers (normal distribution) are an estimation of the binomial distribution and that is the reason they are off due to the small sample size.
Quote: odiousgambitThat's interesting. How could he say no?
Unfortunately I have been unable to figure out how to easily do a wincraps test for this. At least it automatically records things under the game log for ending bankroll. So far I am having to start and stop a separate game for each session. It won't be too hard to get to 10,000 rolls this way, but something better like 100,000 rolls I dunno.
Go To: WinCraps website HERE' rel='nofollow' target='_blank'>http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm]HERE
This WinCraps page has auto-bet files you can download and change if you wish and looks to all be free.
You want the 4th one down. They are all actually very good and gives one great ideas on how to program in WC.
"Download riskofruin.bet
This file plays Passline (and odds if selected) until insufficient bankroll remains to make a wager, a specified amount of action has transpired, a specified win goal has been reached, or a specified number of rolls have been reached (time) or a number of trials have been reached.
Plays multiple games using the hyper-drive.
Use the Games Log histograms to discover the risk of ruin."
You MUST have a registered version of WC to run multiple sessions in 'Hyper-Drive' meaning you have to pay the $20 reg fee.
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:57:21 AM
permalink
Quote: guido111Looks like 7Craps blog has already answered your questions and has a few WC screen shots.
I need to look at that again.
Quote:Go To: WinCraps website
Thanks for the specific help, I have been to the webpage before and found mostly files I wasn't interested in. I'll check what you recommend.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 3rd, 2011 at 8:02:30 AM
permalink
There is only downside here for you, as you will be only be keeping half of your winnings, but are responsible for all of the losses. Your expected value is $5 x .01414 x 30 = $2.12, but the variance is huge with the odds bet, and you only get to keep 1/2 of the positive variance over $20. Meanwhile, you are responsible for ALL of the negative variance over $5.
The EV of the odds bet is $0.
Try sticking your experiment into a binomial calculator with 30 trials, probability of success = 0.4929293 and plug in the number of successes, one by one.
You will see that your EV for this scheme is actually -$4.06631 with an EV on your odds bet of zero.
There is only downside as the EV of not participating in this scheme is -$2.12120.
You're much better off on teaching LIVE craps for an hourly fee of $50 and let the player decide whether to take risk or not.
The EV of the odds bet is $0.
Try sticking your experiment into a binomial calculator with 30 trials, probability of success = 0.4929293 and plug in the number of successes, one by one.
You will see that your EV for this scheme is actually -$4.06631 with an EV on your odds bet of zero.
There is only downside as the EV of not participating in this scheme is -$2.12120.
You're much better off on teaching LIVE craps for an hourly fee of $50 and let the player decide whether to take risk or not.
-----
You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
July 3rd, 2011 at 8:30:00 AM
permalink
Quote: odiousgambitHe has to bet the pass line only with no free odds. This sounds boring but but for a guy who has never played that ought to be OK. He lets me bet his free odds.
30 come-outs at $5, his EV is -$2.10. with these rules we will play up to 60 come-outs if he wants , and then re-evaluate. My purpose is to take all fear away but have my own EV for doing the favor to be slightly positive.
Now I see what you are up to.
He makes the pass bets, You make the free odds bet.
That gives you an EV = 0.
You would have to calculate how many odds you would take with each point with a given bankroll.
boymimbo is right, the odds bet for you would add a lot of variance depending on how much you take.
When you use the WinCraps file I suggested, make sure you set up your WinCraps with proper bankroll, NO negative bankrolls, max odds bets etc. The auto-bet file will do the rest.
Game / Configure. Both Bankroll and Bet tabs.
Under Misc tab / Notices Box: Auto-Bet messages normal play should be the only one checked. This one is so you can enter values BEFORE you run any sessions.
July 3rd, 2011 at 8:38:00 AM
permalink
Why not just let him play for thirty minutes and figure out what he wants to do.
Or
You play for him and he puts up the passline bets. He is not going to be quick enough to figure out how much in odds and get it down in time so you either do it yourself or you hand him the appropriate chip stack.
Settle up at the end and be done with it.
Or
You play for him and he puts up the passline bets. He is not going to be quick enough to figure out how much in odds and get it down in time so you either do it yourself or you hand him the appropriate chip stack.
Settle up at the end and be done with it.
July 3rd, 2011 at 9:35:28 AM
permalink
Quote: boymimboYou're much better off on teaching LIVE craps for an hourly fee of $50 and let the player decide whether to take risk or not.
This is a friend of mine so I'm not trying to start a new career or anything [g]. I have to figure there is a certain point at which taking some of his winnings equates to covering some of his losses. That's not to say I havent screwed the pooch with what I came up with so far. Hopefully I can use wincraps better to help determine this ... thanks for the help and opinions.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 3rd, 2011 at 10:46:17 AM
permalink
Quote: odiousgambitI cover all his losses, for the session, over $5. He eats up to $5 in losses. All of this is session based btw.
He gets the first $5 of anything he wins. I get the next $10, so if he wins $15 I get $10 of it. Then I get half of any of his further winnings.
You really do not need to run sims to come up with answers.
Use boymimbo's math example (and yours) and 7Craps table and you can do the math at each step.
Good Luck!
Example:
In the 'Exact' Column
13.89% (1389 out of 10,000 sessions) of losing exactly $10
11.77% of losing exactly $20 and so on.
Do the math and you should come up with an average 'loss' when the session is a loss at -$26.00945817
an average 'win' when the session is a win at $24.67912634
an average 'win' when the session is a win OR a break even at $18.11360425
From this you should be able to see how to 'split' the winnings since you cover all the losses.
Then calculate your EV.
I almost forgot, you could do the same for your odds bets.
Just calculate the $SD for each odds multiple not using the flat bet part in your calculations. Another fun math exercise.
Example:
odds event net mean diff squared ways gross var
1 cor 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 cor 0 0 0 0 0 0
1 5,9 -1 0 -1 1 264 264
1 4,10 -1 0 -1 1 220 220
1 6,8 -1 0 -1 1 300 300
1 5,9 1.5 0 1.5 2.25 176 396
1 4,10 2 0 2 4 110 440
1 6,8 1.2 0 1.2 1.44 250 360
1980/1320
var 1.5
sd 1.224744871
Just because the odds bet have a 0 edge and $0 expected loss does not guarantee you can not lose during 30 pass line trials.
You will average only 20 odds bets (sd of 2.582) during the time your friend makes his 30 pass line bets.
WinCraps does not separate the pass line/odds win/loss totals for multiple sessions. You would have to track that yourself using chip stacks.
All in All a good exercise for you!
July 3rd, 2011 at 12:31:19 PM
permalink
I should have some time tomorrow to look at your various suggestions. Thanks again.
One thing to make clear: the free odds will not be factored at all. If I put them up behing my playing or behind his playing, it will all be my bankroll, any wins or losses there will be kept separate. So if wincraps proves useful, I will run trials with no free odds.
One thing to make clear: the free odds will not be factored at all. If I put them up behing my playing or behind his playing, it will all be my bankroll, any wins or losses there will be kept separate. So if wincraps proves useful, I will run trials with no free odds.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 4th, 2011 at 8:01:57 AM
permalink
Progress report: crunching some numbers using the 7craps' blog entry, looks like the problem is you can't guarantee a small loss without limiting the guaranteed win to an even smaller amount. Bear in mind this has to be made attractive in some manner or other or 'forget it' will be the answer to your proposition. So I wouldn't be able to propose I would cover most all of his losses, but then say he can't win anything. I'll have to emphasize that it is low risk for him to give it a whirl, but admit he can win very little. Perhaps I can include winning something if he breaks even.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 4th, 2011 at 11:46:42 AM
permalink
Well that was quite tedious but do-able with the 7craps blog figures. I have a reasonable confidence level I did it right, could probably modify that table to show you what I did, but that's later if ever.
>Perhaps I can include winning something if he breaks even.
I think the best I can do to dangle a carrot, is to say he keeps it all at a certain win goal.
Assuming I am using the figures right, so far the best sounding proposal to me is the below, again for a 30 come-outs session at a $5 table:
"If you bet only the pass line for $5 for 30 times, I cover your losses for anything you lose past $9. You keep the first $4 of your winnings and I keep the rest, unless you win $80 or more, in which case you keep it all."
If he accepts, when we win I get +$8.06 on average versus -$7.80 on average if we lose. If he wants to negotiate that, I would reluctantly accept him keeping the first $5 won and anything over $100 his keep-it-all. Winning in that case reduces to +$7.82 on average, when we win. Certainly I would only do that for a friend to get him past his cold feet when it comes to craps .
I might propose the above in quotes, but altering it to guaranteeing only not losing more than $10, then go down to $9 in any negotiating.
>Perhaps I can include winning something if he breaks even.
I think the best I can do to dangle a carrot, is to say he keeps it all at a certain win goal.
Assuming I am using the figures right, so far the best sounding proposal to me is the below, again for a 30 come-outs session at a $5 table:
"If you bet only the pass line for $5 for 30 times, I cover your losses for anything you lose past $9. You keep the first $4 of your winnings and I keep the rest, unless you win $80 or more, in which case you keep it all."
If he accepts, when we win I get +$8.06 on average versus -$7.80 on average if we lose. If he wants to negotiate that, I would reluctantly accept him keeping the first $5 won and anything over $100 his keep-it-all. Winning in that case reduces to +$7.82 on average, when we win. Certainly I would only do that for a friend to get him past his cold feet when it comes to craps .
I might propose the above in quotes, but altering it to guaranteeing only not losing more than $10, then go down to $9 in any negotiating.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 26th, 2011 at 9:12:09 PM
permalink
I invite you to come to Reno to play on a table with me..I'll let you take my odds all the time, as long as I get the player rating.
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
July 27th, 2011 at 2:49:16 AM
permalink
Quote: TIMSPEEDI invite you to come to Reno to play on a table with me..I'll let you take my odds all the time, as long as I get the player rating.
If I did this right, I worked it out to be player edge for me [only seems right] and ultimately boring for the newbie. At the point he realizes that, time to play on his own with my blessings. He should get the player rating if he wants it, in spite of the fact I am setting myself up at great risk for some big losses.
Reno I do not see in my crystal ball!
PS, Progress report: after a recent conversation with him, this might go as planned. I am finding I have to take it super slow, unbelievably slow, or he scares off like Miss Muffet or something. I get the feeling a lot of forum members don't know someone like this, but it is perhaps my lot in life to know plenty of these folks. They might drink like a fish or have other vices, but for them gambling is a profoundly stupid or dangerous thing, beyond the pale.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
July 27th, 2011 at 9:50:49 PM
permalink
Quote: odiousgambitI get the feeling a lot of forum members don't know someone like this, but it is perhaps my lot in life to know plenty of these folks. They might drink like a fish or have other vices, but for them gambling is a profoundly stupid or dangerous thing, beyond the pale.
That's EXACTLY how everyone I know is..they thing gambling is the ultimate evil sin, worse than 1st degree murder!
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
July 28th, 2011 at 2:26:31 AM
permalink
Perhaps they are afraid of their own emotional reaction to something that can be addicting. We all have various views as to dangers and responses to dangers. I just read a headline about some railway wreck that prompted an evacuation only for someone to later point out that the tanker cars involved were empty. Clearly someone over reacted. To someone who looks at a lottery and thinks its absurd to gamble we might only say that its absurd to buy a lottery ticket. Clearly there is some merit to this "A Town Built By Losers" slogan.Quote: odiousgambitI am finding I have to take it super slow, unbelievably slow, or he scares off like Miss Muffet or something. I get the feeling a lot of forum members don't know someone like this, but it is perhaps my lot in life to know plenty of these folks. They might drink like a fish or have other vices, but for them gambling is a profoundly stupid or dangerous thing, beyond the pale.
Many things in life are far less foolish than we at first think. Alligator wrestling is relatively safe. Stock car racing is relatively safe. Spectators may be under various impressions as to the risks involved but when you get past the hoopla, its rather safe. Yet, a spectator walking past a casino might just be wise to cling to a sense of caution: they invite you in, provide free alcohol, have lots of half-naked women around the place and try to get you to bet money on something that is in their favor.
Some people were raised to equate gambling with gin-drinking, tattoos and dancing. If your friend really doesn't want to let go of misconceptions then fine. If he is merely misinformed about the risks involved then that is a separate matter. If you want to arrange a demonstration for him at the craps table, then simply make it a simple one and let him test the waters for himself. Don't make it a complex thing with odds. He wont understand it or follow instructions correctly anyway, so just make it a simple and short session and see what happens. If he is there three hours later making hardway bets, you will each have had your answer.
July 28th, 2011 at 6:23:01 AM
permalink
My wife actually had to drag me to Vegas the first time. That ship has long sailed and now I go by myself all the time. If your friend has not ever been to a casino before maybe their preconception of what to expect will change once they get there. Gambling is no different then any other hobby or vice as long as it does not control you. You have to spend your money somewhere. I use to golf, I would go three times per week. What do you think that cost, including golf and food and drinks ect? I actually spend less (counting wins and losses) going to the casino twice a month and Vegas every so often. It is much more enjoyable and I can tell you I never wish I was at work in the casino but I have thought that on the golf course. I would also expose him to other games so he can find something he likes which may be totally different than what you like.
July 28th, 2011 at 7:44:15 AM
permalink
I am convinced you either love it or you don't. Sure there are some that like it but dont get too enthused but I think its one way or the other. My wife and in laws love gambling and could go to a casino weekely(money permitted). My brother in law couldn't care less. We have taken him to casinos, he has tried different games and it does nothing for him. Last time he brought a book to an OTB and VP/Slots parlor! Our friends are harrah's 7 stars, their daughter loves Vegas but won't gamble, even if they give her money. She gets bored with it, would rather hit the supermalls. My parents always take us to a casino when we visit them in FLorida or here near Charlestown. My dads brother looks at us like we are crazy every time we tell him a night out there. This is why I think its either in you or its not. I mean here are people that have grown up with it and have been totally exposed to it and yet it does nothing for them.
