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AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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August 25th, 2014 at 8:48:56 PM permalink
Quote: Sonny44

But, there's a lot of things about craps that defy the math.

How does it defy it odd occurrences are a part of the math. Streaks and hot shooters are real, AFTER THE FACT.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
spadeknight
spadeknight
Joined: Jan 21, 2012
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August 26th, 2014 at 4:01:24 PM permalink
I think the reason you see more sevens on the come out than any other time is because once a seven is thrown all bets lose and then you have the come out. you will always see more on the come out because sevens dont "ride along side points". Just today i was playing craps and leaving my bets working on the come out. I hit five of them in 2 hours. more of the time you will actually see a point rolled other than a seven on the come out because there are 12 ways to either roll a seven or craps but there are 24 ways to roll anything else. If you dont like keeping your bets working try lowering the amount on the odds so you dont "feel upset" if a seven wipes them all out. In the long run you will come out winning more odds bets by keeping them working all the time.
Winner 7! Pay the line
Ahigh
Ahigh
Joined: May 19, 2010
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August 26th, 2014 at 5:11:15 PM permalink
Quote: spadeknight

I think the reason you see more sevens on the come out than any other time is because once a seven is thrown all bets lose and then you have the come out. you will always see more on the come out because sevens dont "ride along side points". Just today i was playing craps and leaving my bets working on the come out. I hit five of them in 2 hours. more of the time you will actually see a point rolled other than a seven on the come out because there are 12 ways to either roll a seven or craps but there are 24 ways to roll anything else. If you dont like keeping your bets working try lowering the amount on the odds so you dont "feel upset" if a seven wipes them all out. In the long run you will come out winning more odds bets by keeping them working all the time.



30% of all rolls are comeout rolls.
70% of all rolls are non-comeout rolls.
1/6th of all rolls are sevens.

.30 * (1/6) = # of sevens on comeout
.70 * (1/6) = # of sevens on non-comeout
http://dumbass.website
DicePhD
DicePhD
Joined: Aug 24, 2014
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August 26th, 2014 at 5:26:09 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

30% of all rolls are comeout rolls.
70% of all rolls are non-comeout rolls.
1/6th of all rolls are sevens.

.30 * (1/6) = # of sevens on comeout
.70 * (1/6) = # of sevens on non-comeout



Hmmm. Where is the adjustment for a new stick man or when the shooter is really feeling it?
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
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April 5th, 2016 at 10:57:27 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Leaving odds on only reduces the house edge as a factor of total bet. It does not reduce the actual house edge as a dollar value. ... Odds bets to me are like getting free variance.



Yes, that concept is often misunderstood. People often advocate "you have to take max odds." But my odds bet does not impact my expected dollar loss at all! I don't care as much about the percent edge as I care about dollar EV. And furthermore, I care about dollar EV per hour, which is a concept I'm surprised doesn't get more discussion in gambling explanations. I'd rather play 20 hands an hour at a 2% disadvantage than 100 at a 1% disadvantage.

If I'm at a $10 table, max odds will have me risking about $40 extra for every established point (assuming 3x4x5x), which is more than I want. If the casinos I visit had a $1 table with 10x odds, I'd play max odds, but they don't.

I don't usually want more variance than I get with my normal strategy of pass line with 1x odds. I'll never go from $200 to $5000 with my low-variance style, but I probably won't bust in five minutes either. If I have the same dollar EV, I'd rather lower my chance of busting out quickly.
bodyforlife
bodyforlife
Joined: Feb 25, 2013
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April 12th, 2016 at 3:14:55 AM permalink
Quote: PaiGowFan

Quote: goatcabin

Quote: HotBlonde

"Turning the come odds off on a come out roll increases the combined house edge from 0.326% to 0.377% in a 5-times odds game, not counting returned odds bets as bets made. So if you want to maximize your return on resolved bets then keep those come odds turned on."



IMO, this is quite misleading, because it sounds like you are saving money, but you are not. You are only increasing the denominator (the total bet handle), not affecting the expected loss one iota.

The only way you "save money" is by exposing less of your money on bets that have a house edge. Taking odds or leaving them on does not do that.



You're somewhat right, but I think you're being misleading. There are two questions. (1) what is the house edge and how do I lower it? (2) How much do I want to risk? They are separate questions. Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here. I know that and know I will have my odds working, so if I am concerned about how much I will be exposed to, I can put less on the pass and come bets, less on odds and therefore less at risk. I do not look to reduce risk by not placing fair value bets (or working the odds on a comeout roll).


Just to be clear, the odds bets are like flipping coins - that is, it is a fair value bet. It is not that the odds bet is favorable to the bettor. It is that if I'm going to gamble, I might as well bet as much as possible at fair value (or better if that was possible).



Leaving the odds on (working) on a come out roll reduces the house edge. Period. There is no debate here.

And

Do I want to risk $5 at a 33.33% house edge or $55 dollars at a 3.03% house edge?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

THIS!

Clearly the best reduction of the house advantage on any game in a casino is not to play. But if I'm choosing to play, I'm hoping in the "short run" I might actually win. I seriously doubt I will get to that goal by playing a game where the casino has an 11% advantage versus a game that has a !% advantage. Why we have to twist things and try to make them so difficult is beyond me. Thank you Hot Blonde and Pai Gow Fan.
Last edited by: bodyforlife on Apr 12, 2016
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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April 12th, 2016 at 5:09:06 AM permalink
Someone else said it before me -- but it's true: Saying increasing (or working) your odds decreases the house edge is like saying adding water to a eggs & flour reduces the calories.

Want to eat 3 Big Macs and be healthy? Just drink a gallon of water! Water away those calories..


As said by me: To say having odds on a come or line bet decreases the house edge is to say that the odds bet has a house edge. Or in other words, water by itself has no calories, but if you pour it into a coke - now water has calories.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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April 12th, 2016 at 8:12:09 AM permalink
the only thing indisputable is that the guy who puts $50 on the pass line and never adds odds could lower his EV and HE both by putting $10 on the line and $40 on free odds.

everything else is how you want to look at it. After Steen shocked me with his argument I've decided everyone is going to view it his way and is going to be deaf to all other arguments.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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April 12th, 2016 at 8:46:15 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the only thing indisputable is that the guy who puts $50 on the pass line and never adds odds could lower his EV and HE both by putting $10 on the line and $40 on free odds.

this does not at all result in average bets (and total action) being equal.

the no odds has an average of $50

$10 with $40 looks like $50
looks like $50

buts only 2/3 of the time IS $50
the other 1/3 = $10
1/3*10 + 2/3* 50 = 10/3+100/3 = 110/3 = $36.67

I say $10 with $60 odds has the same average bet as a $50 flat
or even
$30 flat with $30 odds = $50 average bet (even)

yes/no
no/yes
Sally

of course
the expected loss from the average $50 bet is different
with different flat bets - as expected.
I Heart Vi Hart
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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April 12th, 2016 at 9:27:23 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

the only thing indisputable is that the guy who puts $50 on the pass line and never adds odds could lower his EV and HE both by putting $10 on the line and $40 on free odds.

Sure, but once you've bet the $50, taking odds doesn't change your expected loss at all, whether you keep them working during comeouts, only when a point is established, or not at all. RS's example of adding water to flour and eggs is on point here. A 150-calorie shortbread cookie is small, and a 150-calorie slice of challah is large, but both have 150 calories. The focus on house edge as a percentage is misplaced in craps when it comes to the odds bets because that house edge percentage is reduced not by decreasing the numerator (the expected loss), but by increasing the denominator (the total wager). It's a qualitatively different issue than, say, doubling down vs. hitting on 11 vs. dealer 6.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563

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