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odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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August 22nd, 2014 at 3:27:20 AM permalink
OK, yeah, but what happens to the HE when you hit the field then *take down* the hardway, and give it to me *per roll* like that. I think we are finally zeroing in on IMPORTANT Craps statistics!

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
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August 22nd, 2014 at 4:09:22 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

OK, yeah, but what happens to the HE when you hit the field then *take down* the hardway, and give it to me *per roll* like that.



I don't understand what you mean exactly.

Any Hardway bet per roll has an EV = -2.7778% (-1/36), as does a Field bet with a triple-pay 12. So, if you take the Hardway bet down, the EV doesn't change; you just have the Field by itself.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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August 22nd, 2014 at 5:17:39 AM permalink
Quote: NowTheSerpent

I don't understand what you mean exactly.



I'm poking fun at those who take the calculation of the HE of bet combinations - which seems to me to be heading in the direction of smoke and mirrors - and further mystify it by looking at a 'per roll' change - and further mystify it by looking at 'per roll if part of combination is taken down after other part wins'.

It may be true that I am just showing how dense I am. If so, further examples of bet combination HE isn't going to clear it up for me. A complete need to show how this isn't as muddled thinking as 'betting systems that win' bet combinations seems to exist.

You may have missed some of the threads.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
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August 22nd, 2014 at 5:52:45 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

I'm poking fun at those who take the calculation of the HE of bet combinations - which seems to me to be heading in the direction of smoke and mirrors - and further mystify it by looking at a 'per roll' change - and further mystify it by looking at 'per roll if part of combination is taken down after other part wins'.

You may have missed some of the threads.



I probably have; I've been away for a while, but your point is well taken. I also think that the terms "per bet resolved" and "per decision" don't always make for a clear distinction from "per roll", as one can speak of "per roll losses per bet resolved" and think of multi-roll bets on box numbers or hardways against the seven being resolved "per roll" as push "decisions" whenever the box number (win) or seven (loss) doesn't roll.
Ahigh
Ahigh
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August 22nd, 2014 at 6:16:37 AM permalink
I don't know how many times I have to say this, but I'll say it again. If you want to compare one bet to another bet, the "per roll" is the only way to do it.

When the field pays triple (the ONLY time you should EVER bet the field if you do bet it at all) the edge is 2.78% per roll.

The same as the hardways here in America.

No difference.

I corrected the Wizard about his edge per roll on the hardways in his FAQ. I don't know if he has updated it.

Please don't be confused when it comes to comparisons of one bet to another. IMO, *ALWAYS* use the edge per roll AND DONE

If you were to count the number of threads where people argue about comparing one bet to another bet with a different number of rolls, it's a high number.

For the math inclined on this thread (especially those who are new to the forum) you have to realize that most people reading the craps forums are interested in learning the game, not debating the technical details of terms used to describe the ten billion combinatorial possibilities for bets you can come up with and what the edge per resolved bets are and/or whether or not "pushes" count. To many of these readers, a "push" is what you give when you leave the table.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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August 22nd, 2014 at 7:00:00 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

If you want to compare one bet to another bet, the "per roll" is the only way to do it.



Perhaps I take too many cues from the Wizard, but he does evidently think it is valid to look at HE per roll. I can see that it should be for players who constantly pick up their bets and make different bets.

Quote: Ahigh

If you were to count the number of threads where people argue about comparing one bet to another bet with a different number of rolls, it's a high number.



It can be valid or not, depending on the player; not everybody picks up bets. If you don't pick up bets, the rolls that don't affect your bet are like rolls that never happened.

In the context of bet combinations and HE, it seems to me that smoke and mirrors are around the corner; when bet per roll is thrown in when the OP did not have that, or vice-versa, I really get suspicious.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
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August 22nd, 2014 at 1:55:08 PM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

Most people reading the craps forums are interested in learning the game, not debating the technical details of terms used to describe the ten billion combinatorial possibilities for bets you can come up with and what the edge per resolved bets are and/or whether or not "pushes" count. To many of these readers, a "push" is what you give when you leave the table.



Most people? The game is the numbers. And I never (and I repeat, never) invoke combinatorics when dealing with craps! Yahtzee, maybe, but never craps! And, of course, eight-card poker.
NowTheSerpent
NowTheSerpent
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August 22nd, 2014 at 2:07:41 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

not everybody picks up bets. If you don't pick up bets, the rolls that don't affect your bet are like rolls that never happened.



Right. I think of the Place-8 as an eleven-sided die, with five faces bearing an 8 and six faces bearing a 7. One throw, and done. Same math. I never take bets down per roll. It annoys dealers. But, when you combine multi-roll with one-roll, e.g. on the Iron Cross or Buffalo, the model changes somewhat. You need to think about 36 rolls at a time. For per-roll, box bets have to be "resolved" somehow on every roll, to put them on equal ground with ORBs.
spadeknight
spadeknight
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August 25th, 2014 at 4:30:12 PM permalink
The reason why its better to leave them working is because a seven can roll on any throw including the come out roll. the seven isnt more probable on the come out roll just because its the come out roll. The seven can roll at any time. If the seven doesnt roll however and you hit a number you get paid the full amount of your odds bet instead of just the flat bets which always work when going through the come. some may say......" you can lose all your bets on one roll if you turn them on". yea but you can lose them all in one roll on the next throw as well. since the odds are free bets with no house edge you will be giving up a bet with no edge in exchange for one with a house edge of 1.41 instead.
Winner 7! Pay the line
Sonny44
Sonny44
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August 25th, 2014 at 8:45:26 PM permalink
Quote: spadeknight

The reason why its better to leave them working is because a seven can roll on any throw including the come out roll. the seven isnt more probable on the come out roll just because its the come out roll. The seven can roll at any time. If the seven doesnt roll however and you hit a number you get paid the full amount of your odds bet instead of just the flat bets which always work when going through the come. some may say......" you can lose all your bets on one roll if you turn them on". yea but you can lose them all in one roll on the next throw as well. since the odds are free bets with no house edge you will be giving up a bet with no edge in exchange for one with a house edge of 1.41 instead.


There is something mystical/mysterious about the come out. For example, it seems to me that I see more 7s in succession on the come out than any other time. Well, and in many cases the 11, and craps numbers. When I'm only a few $$ above going broke, I'll be damned if I don't see more craps numbers successively than any other time. Probably just a matter of perception. But, there's a lot of things about craps that defy the math.

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