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TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
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April 18th, 2016 at 9:53:31 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

<snip>
so
that fact still remains (and many craps players do know) that when a 7 does roll,
and it always will,
it does more often on a come out roll
compared to any other roll not being the come out roll.

it is because how the game is set up to play
the event is a come out roll
this is easily seen in actual roll data (and simulation data too)
1 million rolls

More often on a come out roll?
You're teasing me aren't you?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
rushdl
rushdl
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
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April 18th, 2016 at 10:10:17 AM permalink
No I don't subscribe to that theory since the dice are not sentient beings and do not know what a come-out roll is.
MrGoldenSun
MrGoldenSun
Joined: Apr 1, 2016
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April 18th, 2016 at 12:33:36 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

and over 60 such bets in one session (happens a lot)
that gives you a 52.334% chance to show a net loss for that session (all thanks to the shooters of course where one might be you)
compared to only a 49.245% chance when taking no odds



That makes sense that the chance of a session loss increases, given that the odds have exactly zero house edge but you win any given odds bet under half the time.

My odds bets depend on how much variance I feel like having at that moment. There's no algorithm behind it. I don't mind a lower-variance game, so I often play a craps style that would be pretty boring for some people, but it's exciting for me. Playing $5 on the line allows me to profit $30 on my odds bets, which is an amount with which I'm happy.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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April 18th, 2016 at 4:25:31 PM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

More often on a come out roll?
You're teasing me aren't you?

no
"when a 7 does roll, and it always will,
it does more often on a come out roll
compared to any other roll not being the come out roll."

It is a simple concept because the probability of a 7 rolling on any roll is constant.

It is by far the reason come odds are off on that come out roll
I guess I could do the math on it too, later
<<< >>>
same concept as "wait time" for an event
(simple ones like in craps)

'SEE A HORN, BET A HORN'
comes to mind

and craps experts all over laugh at the saying
but that saying IS true. 100% as it goes

given the last roll was a Horn #

the wait time starts
the 1st roll has a 1 in 6 probability of being another Horn # (16.7%)

when the 1st roll is not a Horn (prob = 5/6)
but it is on the 2nd roll after a Horn
we have the sequence of 5/6 * 1/6 = 5/36 *100 = 13.9%
less chance it happens on the 2nd roll than the first
this is the distribution beginning and it continues

both NBA and MLB is starting up
dinner party time
Sally

so in closing
players that have their come odds off on the come out roll
are missing the roll that the 7 rolls on the most (the distribution starting on the come out roll)
it is that simple
I Heart Vi Hart
rushdl
rushdl
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
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April 18th, 2016 at 4:53:20 PM permalink
I think, that, 100% of the rolls end on 7.
bodyforlife
bodyforlife
Joined: Feb 25, 2013
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April 19th, 2016 at 12:56:05 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

I think, that, 100% of the rolls end on 7.



What if you hit your point and quit?
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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April 19th, 2016 at 5:06:42 AM permalink
Quote: bodyforlife

What if you hit your point and quit?



your session may be over but the roll keeps going.

What happens if you are the only one at the table and you just quit? Do they clear the table and start over when the next person comes or does the next person continue the roll?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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April 24th, 2016 at 7:53:37 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Second session in a row where my working come bets got murdered. I had 3 come bets with $20 odds lose on a 7 come out 8 times. I did win a few 4s and 10's though on come out. I was down a bunch from the working come bets but overall only lost $60 in 90 minutes because of 1 shooter repeating a 10 7 times in 1 roll. Would have had a huge win if I wasn't working my odds.

The really frustrating part is I would have a 5,6,9 working. They would throw a 7 and then a 9. That happened all but 1 time.



The box man must have felt bad for me and rated me really high. For next month I have 5 $100 match play coupons. Have never been given match play for more than $25 at this casino. Now gotta figure out what to do with them since my line bets are always $5.

I guess doey don't and a few on 12. What would thst even be, I guess 100+match/150 don't and 8 on 12. Or maybe since I have 5 just risk the 100 on the line.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

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