bodyforlife
bodyforlife
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Joined: Feb 25, 2013
August 22nd, 2024 at 7:08:07 AM permalink
When I go to Vegas, I typically stay consistent with my wagers placing the 6 and the 8. I realize the pass line with odds gives a lower house edge, but I tend to last longer on my bankroll with the aforementioned strategy .

What I'm not understanding is how the wizard comes up with a 1.52% house edge by placing the 6 or the 8.

Obviously the true payout should be 1.2 to 1. And what you're actually getting on a place wager with the 6 is 1.167 to 1. I'm not the greatest with math but it just seems like the edge is actually 3.3%.

Can anyone explain in very basic terms how the 1.52% is derived and in particular, where I'm off on my math calculation. There is an advanced calculation on the wizardofodds site, but honestly it makes no sense to me (so please don't just copy that).
Last edited by: bodyforlife on Aug 22, 2024
ChesterDog
ChesterDog
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August 22nd, 2024 at 9:44:34 AM permalink
Quote: bodyforlife

When I go to Vegas, I typically stay consistent with my wagers placing the 6 and the 8. I realize the pass line with odds gives a lower house edge, but I tend to last longer on my bankroll with the aforementioned strategy .

What I'm not understanding is how the wizard comes up with a 1.52% house edge by placing the 6 or the 8.

Obviously the true payout should be 1.2 to 1. And what you're actually getting on a place wager with the 6 is 1.167 to 1. I'm not the greatest with math but it just seems like the edge is actually 3.3%.

Can anyone explain in very basic terms how the 1.52% is derived and in particular, where I'm off on my math calculation. There is an advanced calculation on the wizardofodds site, but honestly it makes no sense to me (so please don't just copy that).
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The fair odds on a winning six would be 6 to 5, but it actually pays only 7 to 6. The difference is 6 / 5 - 7 / 6 = 1 / 30 ≈ 3.3%.

However, to get the house edge of the place bet on six, we divide the above number by one plus the fair odds, so the house edge is (1 / 30) / (1 + 6/5) = 1 / 66 ≈ 1.52%.


The EV of a bet is: p win * odds - p lose
P lose = 1 - p win,
so EV = p win * odds - (1 - p win) = (p win)(odds + 1) - 1.

For a fair bet, EV = 0 = (p win)(fair odds + 1) - 1.
Solving for p win: p win = 1 / (fair odds + 1)

EV = (p win)(odds + 1) - 1 = [1 / (fair odds + 1)](odds + 1) - 1 = (odds - fair odds) / (fair odds + 1)

House edge = - EV = (fair odds - odds) / (fair odds + 1)
bodyforlife
bodyforlife
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ChesterDog
August 22nd, 2024 at 12:17:26 PM permalink
Thank you so much ChesterDog! I really appreciate it.
tuttigym
tuttigym
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August 24th, 2024 at 6:15:40 AM permalink
Quote: bodyforlife

Thank you so much ChesterDog! I really appreciate it.
link to original post


OK. So, now that you know the math, why is that important? I mean, how will it affect your craps play? Does the HE directly relate to the actual odds of winning a placed 6 or 8? For me, getting into the "weeds" creates confusion.

tuttigym
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