Timbo
Timbo
Joined: Dec 5, 2022
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December 5th, 2022 at 2:36:08 PM permalink
I have played craps at tables for years but I was in Biloxi recently and the Palace Casino only had one craps table open and it was full of players but I did see an Bubble Craps Machine. I wasn't crazy about playing the Bubble Craps Machine (I thought it might be rigged) but I decided to play anyway to determine if it was fair or not. I played the bubble craps machine for maybe 12 hours on my trip and it seemed to be fair. I walked out with a modest profit because most of my wagers were small. The great thing is the machine only requires a 1 dollar min bet! For the most part, I was just playing the pass line combined with small bets on the 6 and 8. After a couple of hits, I would usually come down or at least reduce my bets to insure a profit. Boring, but profitable.

But if indeed the machine is fair, it seems like you could make some money if you just sat there and did a lay bet on 4 on every roll of the dice. If the dice rolls a 4, then multiply your wager by 3 and lay the 4 again and then continue with that logic. It's a slow grind, but it appears to be very successful and effective with the simulation craps game on the wizard's "play for fun" craps game that I play to test systems. This approach is boring but seems like it would work but that's assuming you have a large enough bankroll AND the machine allows you make big bets because at some point you are going to encounter an hot shooter who might throw a few 4's in a row.....But as long as you can make big bets (over $100), you should be able to beat this machine.

I don't know if the machine limits the amount of your wagers or not which is a key thing to know before you try this one out. I appreciate everyone's feedback (good or bad).
Last edited by: Timbo on Dec 5, 2022
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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December 5th, 2022 at 2:48:56 PM permalink
I'm more of a lay the 5 or 9 guy. But Hot Shooter me will hit those numbers be they 4/10 or 5/9 despite my lay bets, and hit them so hard I'd be rich if I was betting the other way.

Bubble Craps is a good game for those without a several hundred dollar budget for a $15/$25 table, but I miss setting the dice or playing the Don't Come on a 5 count for other shooters. With Bubble Craps I have to shoot constantly, or if other players are around they can be qualified as potential Hot Shooters because I've seen them before. Other people just roll up to the machine, put money in, then when it's their turn to shoot, they cash-out instead of bet and if I was betting Don't Pass on them, suddenly it's my turn to shoot and I'm stuck with a DP bet against myself.

The individual Bubble Craps machine doesn't rely on a rotating circle of shooters, and I'm not sure they can time when the dice pop up, so I prefer not to play that one, but I haven't been near one yet either.
Timbo
Timbo
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December 5th, 2022 at 5:20:20 PM permalink
I meant the individual bubble craps machine. Any idea what the max bet is? I'm assuming there is no limit to the money I can buy in for.....
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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December 5th, 2022 at 5:59:46 PM permalink
It varies by casino, but the best bet is to make sure your bet and winnings on any single roll of the dice don't total $1,200 or more. For a Buy bet on the 4, a $400 bet would pay $780 + your bet, which equals $1,180. For a PL bet with 2X odds, a $195 PL bet with $390 odds on the point of 4 would pay $975 plus your bet of $585 which equals $1,560 and will give you a time-out with the slot attendant during a hot roll. A $150 PL bet with $300 odds would total to a $1,200 payout on the 4/10 and also give you a taxable win headache. So tread carefully if taxes are not your thing. It's not always the maximum bet of the machine that limits you. The machine is likely to start spitting out vouchers if your wins put you over the $3,000 threshold. You win $600 on a roll and you had $2,500 in credits, it will spit out a $600 voucher that you can put back into the machine when you have less than $2,400 in credits. Some people just collect a dozen or so vouchers then go to the cage and cash them in, or they keep feeding the machine.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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December 5th, 2022 at 8:40:14 PM permalink
Welcome to the forum, Timbo.

If it is a fair machine, there is NO SYSTEM that you can devise to overcome the house edge. It’s as simple as that.

That DOES NOT mean on a relatively low house edge game like craps that on a single 12 hours of play you cannot come out ahead.

But get it out of your head that you can reliably ‘grind’ out a win on a negative expectation game like craps.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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December 5th, 2022 at 9:05:04 PM permalink
If I'm ahead after 20,000 dice rolls, am I really ahead?
100xOdds
100xOdds
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December 6th, 2022 at 1:25:38 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If I'm ahead after 20,000 dice rolls, am I really ahead?
link to original post

i've played maybe 10hrs total of triple double bonus vp in my life and i started 10yrs ago.
2 of those hrs was one session. i had $10k worth of w2g's. (awk, and 3 baby quads with kicker.)

the other 8hrs i have no idea how long nor the win/loss.
none of the sessions i went broke but i didnt get a w2g either.
but overall, i think i'm ahead.

if i keep averaging 1hr of play per year, i think i'll be ahead on tdb till i die unless great negative variance appears to counter my great positive variance.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Timbo
Timbo
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December 6th, 2022 at 6:54:36 AM permalink
Good Morning,

Sounds like you didn't real my post carefully. When I played the bubble machine for 12 hours, I wasn't running any sort of progressive strategy to beat the casino. I was just testing the machine to see if it was rigged or not. Based on that time, I don't think it is rigged.

All games in the casino are a negative expectation game. With that said, based on my experience, there are some strategies that can win a majority of the time. Notice I didn't say all the time, but most of the time. One strategy that has worked very well for me in the past, is to make either a DP or Pass line bet and if you win, you go down one unit on your next bet, and if you lose, you go up one unit. In most cases, it "grinds" out a small win most of the time. The problem with this strategy, is that it is boring and you aren't going to score a big win.

My "lay 4" strategy may only work on a bubble machine because you can actually make a very small (for example 1 dollar) lay on the bubble machine. You obviously can't do that at a real table game. And if you lose that lay bet, then you multiply that lay bet times 3 or 4 and you keep doing that until the 7 shows up. I'm in the early stages of testing this strategy with the wizards of odds "play craps" website which appears to be the same software that the bubble machine uses. I'm not saying that you will win with this strategy or beat the "house edge" but based on the small sample size I've employed, it looks like it could be effective most of the time. When I say "most of the time", that might mean you win 55%-65% of the time.

About 14 years ago, I would go to the casino about once a month. I had an incredible run where I won 13 straight trips. There were not all big wins, but they were wins. For the most part, I would play the inside numbers and after a couple of hits, I would take my bets down or regress to insure a profit. The dealers didn't like this because they had to work a little. Once I would get up and playing with "house money", I would start to get more aggressive. So when I went on my 14th trip, I employed the same strategy at the casino and got KILLED. So I guess my point is that no matter how strong your strategy or betting system is, it can and will lose at some point.

Sorry to ramble on....But I think we all look at ways to give ourselves the "best chance" to win.
wilbsmitt
wilbsmitt
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Thanks for this post from:
pwcrabb
December 6th, 2022 at 12:11:16 PM permalink
Your lay stratagy is a simple Martingale betting scheme. This stratagy produces many small wins, but there will come a time when the series of losses either bumps up against the table max or your bankroll, and your series of small wins will be wiped out.

Next time you're at the casino, look at the machine. I assume max bet is posted on it somewhere.

Why would you think that a casino would risk it's license to rig a game which already has a built in advantage for the casino?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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December 7th, 2022 at 12:35:53 AM permalink
Quote: Timbo

I was just testing the machine to see if it was rigged or not.

How does one do that? If they were to rig the thing how do you think they would go about that?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

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