Three Point Dolly

I find numbers repeat so much on bubble craps, just not the ones I bet on.

Quote: ChumpChange

I find numbers repeat so much on bubble craps, just not the ones I bet on.
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Same thing happens to me when I play keno. Then, as soon as I sit out a game or change my numbers, BAM, they hit!

Quote: camapl

Quote: ChumpChange

I find numbers repeat so much on bubble craps, just not the ones I bet on.
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Same thing happens to me when I play keno. Then, as soon as I sit out a game or change my numbers, BAM, they hit!
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Here's some good news for you guys: my numbers never hit.

Whenever I go to Red Rock for lunch I look at the Keno screen on the wall and I imagine I'm playing my ten numbers for their $3-million jackpot.

Never has more than 3 of my ten numbers ever hit on that screen of 80. Usually it's just one number. Sometimes two numbers.

Frankly it's hard enough rolling any number twice in craps. So perhaps the 3 number don't is the way to go?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Here's some good news for you guys: my numbers never hit.

That's not good news, Alan. Good news would be if you won the $3 Mil jackpot! Hey, I may not always agree with you, but I'm not rooting against you!

Quote:

Frankly it's hard enough rolling any number twice in craps. So perhaps the 3 number don't is the way to go?
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FWIW, 22% of the time, you only need to roll one number to win a line/come bet!

Instead of betting $1 on the line and $1 on the odds, I'm betting $2 on the line and doing a 9 in a row progression. Either way it's no substitute for playing the Don'ts when I'm the worst shooter at the machine over & over & over again, and the others aren't much better. I could be doing a 9 in a row progression on the DP instead.

Quote: billryan

When I'm having a really bad day, it's always good to read a long tuttigym post on math. Now that I'm off ice cream, nothing else puts a smile on my face.
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Anytime I can put a smile on anyone's face is a point for me in the win column.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: billryan

When I'm having a really bad day, it's always good to read a long tuttigym post on math. Now that I'm off ice cream, nothing else puts a smile on my face.
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Anytime I can put a smile on anyone's face is a point for me in the win column.

tuttigym
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Thats the spirit. Just keeping telling yourself they are laughing with me, not at me.

Quote: Ace2

Tuttigym: This is why we calculate standard deviation. For example, lets say you make 400 passline bets (about 13 hours of play). Your expectation is to lose 400 * 1.41% = 5.64 units and your standard deviation is 20 units. This means that about 68% of the time your result will be within 20 units of -5.64.

This is not hocus-pocus. If you played many 400 bet sessions (can be over multiple days) then you would see that about 68% of them fall into that range. You could even use a (god forbid) simulation to show this.

400 bets is a very small sample size. Most of us will play tens or even hundreds of thousands of hands in our gambling "careers". And at that volume you can be confident that your total loss will be pretty close to the expected edge %. Sure you will have some huge wins and some horrific losses along the way...and variance is what makes gambling fun...but in the long run it will all net out to the house edge, or close to it

The people who don't understand the basic numbers, thinking they can beat the house etc, are usually the ones that get in big trouble
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While your post may be correct, the basic flaw is the assumption that every player in every session wagers the same plays the same amounts every time without any deviation of plan or approach. I am pretty sure your play does not come close to the static plan associated with the "math" you espouse. You are inferring that the 400 bet sessions are identical and therefore the results would eventually mirror the "math" as in the computer simulations you so believe in. That just does not happen. It is not reality. In short, the "math" is an illusion put forth to justify the numbers which have yet to be proven or performed.

Again, let me emphasize that all of the math regarding the HA/HE such as the 1.41% PL is determined by doing, fictiously, (playing) the same thing for each and every roll of the dice and each and every hand played every time without deviation. The simple question: Is that how you or anybody you know play the game?

tuttigym

Quote: Wizard

Quote: tuttigym

They read stuff written by math savants that show ridiculously impossible loss numbers such as .08315 and jump headfirst into the casino and just get slaughtered at the table.
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When did they quit teaching the concept of an average in schools?
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When they started handing out "participation" trophies to everyone.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Again, let me emphasize that all of the math regarding the HA/HE such as the 1.41% PL is determined by doing, fictiously, (playing) the same thing for each and every roll of the dice and each and every hand played every time without deviation. The simple question: Is that how you or anybody you know play the game?

tuttigym
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yes. many people are flat bettors or close to it. They might double their bets sometimes and that's about it

Quote: Ace2

I just read that a US family has an average of 1.93 children. Sounds reasonable, but according to your logic that figure must be wrong since it's impossible to have 1.93 children. Averages are averages

Actually, I have met hundreds of people that are not "all there." So that number may be a bit high.

Quote: Ace2

How many trials are needed in a simulation varies. Yes, it does sometimes take millions of trials (or more) before the answer converges to three significant digits, which is usually enough. Not sure why you continue referencing my prior statement about simulations... it's like you think it invalidates my comments
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No, this paragraph along with your prior referencing on simulations actually VALIDATES (emphasis) my points regarding performance and reality.

tuttigym

Quote: AlanMendelson

I can sum up come betting vs place betting this way:

Come bettors win more with a hot roll.
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I can sum up everything you've ever posted on this message forum this way:

Sensational!

Please have a look at my new page on the Three Point Dolly at WoO. I welcome all comments and corrections.

Can I take up two spots at a craps table and have two racks of chips and play Dolly on spot 1 and Molly on spot 2? By the time I lose 25 bets on one, I'll have won 25 bets on the other, but for the HA on the line namely the boxcars. The higher odds might make that a bit moot.

Quote: ChumpChange

Can I take up two spots at a craps table and have two racks of chips and play Dolly on spot 1 and Molly on spot 2? By the time I lose 25 bets on one, I'll have won 25 bets on the other, but for the HA on the line namely the boxcars. The higher odds might make that a bit moot.
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You can play do/don't with only one position at a craps table.

Quote: ChumpChange

Can I take up two spots at a craps table and have two racks of chips and play Dolly on spot 1 and Molly on spot 2? By the time I lose 25 bets on one, I'll have won 25 bets on the other, but for the HA on the line namely the boxcars. The higher odds might make that a bit moot.
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You don't need two spots to do that and it would be perfectly allowed. The Keefer Roulette System, which I analyzed, makes a lot of offsetting bets. No rule against it.

Quote: Wizard

Please have a look at my new page on the Three Point Dolly at WoO. I welcome all comments and corrections.
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'to cover a point' is not typical Craps lingo, I don't think, so I think I would add a definition.

Quote: odiousgambit

'to cover a point' is not typical Craps lingo, I don't think, so I think I would add a definition.
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Thank you. What would you recommend as the proper way to say to stop making don't pass and don't come bets when you have money on three numbers already?

Quote: Wizard

Quote: odiousgambit

'to cover a point' is not typical Craps lingo, I don't think, so I think I would add a definition.
link to original post

Thank you. What would you recommend as the proper way to say to stop making don't pass and don't come bets when you have money on three numbers already?
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you wrote "Make a don't pass or don't come bet every roll, until you have three numbers covered."

you could say "Make a don't pass or don't come bet every roll, until three numbers have traveled to be resolved, from here on defined as 'covered' points."

As a regular 3-point molly/dolly player, my practical question is as follows. Let's say I take a weekend trip to Vegas and I estimate I'm going to play craps for 12 hours total (assume 400 pass line decisions in 12 hours), I'll play a 3 Point Dolly the entire time with $100 flat bets plus max odds on a 3-4-5 table.

Using the second column of the data table below, what is the expected result and standard deviation for my trip? That's generally all I want to know for any game or version of game I play, but I can't figure it out

Expected units bet 21.318409 30.313926
Expected win -0.086295 -0.083150
House Edge 0.004048 0.002743
Probability Win 0.304783 0.679841
Probability Loss 0.673288 0.299207
Average win given win 15.880052 7.393417
Average loss given loss 7.316730 17.076796
Average rolls 8.525470 8.525547
Standard deviation 13.966288 14.635488

Quote: odiousgambit

'to cover a point' is not typical Craps lingo, I don't think, so I think I would add a definition.

I don't see an issue with the word "covered". Then again, I'm still a newbie relative to some of the true veterans so maybe I don't have all the jargon down yet

As the 3PD page states that we assume the player knows the rules of craps, I think the easiest and most accurate way to describe a 3PD is simply: "You make don't pass and don't come bets until you have three total bets in play. Back everything with max odds" Same for 3PM but use pass and come.

The 3PM (and 2PM and 4PM and 5PM and 6PM) are very basic. As long as you know what a passline and come bet are, there's really nothing to explain except what you're EV and SD are. Same goes for dolly

Quote: Ace2

As a regular 3-point molly/dolly player, my practical question is as follows. Let's say I take a weekend trip to Vegas and I estimate I'm going to play craps for 12 hours total (assume 400 pass line decisions in 12 hours), I'll play a 3 Point Dolly the entire time with $100 flat bets plus max odds on a 3-4-5 table.

Using the second column of the data table below, what is the expected result and standard deviation for my trip? That's generally all I want to know for any game or version of game I play, but I can't figure it out

Expected units bet 21.318409 30.313926
Expected win -0.086295 -0.083150
House Edge 0.004048 0.002743
Probability Win 0.304783 0.679841
Probability Loss 0.673288 0.299207
Average win given win 15.880052 7.393417
Average loss given loss 7.316730 17.076796
Average rolls 8.525470 8.525547
Standard deviation 13.966288 14.635488
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you kinda lost me there ... but if I were you I'd look at EV/SD ... as EV approaches one SD, it becomes foolish to keep betting. This is the other side of Kelly, which is a determination based on having player advantage... yet the same concept of 'net zero' is related

as far as whether 'covered' should be used in the Wizards thing, veteran Craps players will be fine with that term. It might confound someone just learning Craps tho

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Ace2

As a regular 3-point molly/dolly player, my practical question is as follows. Let's say I take a weekend trip to Vegas and I estimate I'm going to play craps for 12 hours total (assume 400 pass line decisions in 12 hours), I'll play a 3 Point Dolly the entire time with $100 flat bets plus max odds on a 3-4-5 table.

Using the second column of the data table below, what is the expected result and standard deviation for my trip? That's generally all I want to know for any game or version of game I play, but I can't figure it out

Expected units bet 21.318409 30.313926
Expected win -0.086295 -0.083150
House Edge 0.004048 0.002743
Probability Win 0.304783 0.679841
Probability Loss 0.673288 0.299207
Average win given win 15.880052 7.393417
Average loss given loss 7.316730 17.076796
Average rolls 8.525470 8.525547
Standard deviation 13.966288 14.635488
link to original post

you kinda lost me there ... but if I were you I'd look at EV/SD ... as EV approaches one SD, it becomes foolish to keep betting. This is the other side of Kelly, which is a determination based on having player advantage... yet the same concept of 'net zero' is related

as far as whether 'covered' should be used in the Wizards thing, veteran Craps players will be fine with that term. It might confound someone just learning Craps tho
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You also lost me.

I'm simply trying to figure out: if I play 3PD for x time period, what's my expected loss and standard deviation. This is one of the most common/basic statistical calculations and has nothing to do with stopping points or kelly

Quote: Ace2

As a regular 3-point molly/dolly player, my practical question is as follows. Let's say I take a weekend trip to Vegas and I estimate I'm going to play craps for 12 hours total (assume 400 pass line decisions in 12 hours), I'll play a 3 Point Dolly the entire time with $100 flat bets plus max odds on a 3-4-5 table.

Using the second column of the data table below, what is the expected result and standard deviation for my trip? That's generally all I want to know for any game or version of game I play, but I can't figure it out

Expected units bet 21.318409 30.313926
Expected win -0.086295 -0.083150
House Edge 0.004048 0.002743
Probability Win 0.304783 0.679841
Probability Loss 0.673288 0.299207
Average win given win 15.880052 7.393417
Average loss given loss 7.316730 17.076796
Average rolls 8.525470 8.525547
Standard deviation 13.966288 14.635488
link to original post

you give answers ... 2 sets .... but the simplest part is EV. If you figure how many bets you make on average, that would give the answer?

If a gambler played for 12 hours with 3 point molly, we need to know how many bets that is I think. Your answer would be the same as if you waited till one was resolved before making another.... EV has to be the same.

So maybe someone knows the answer based on the rolls per hour. At a busy table that is expected to be about 100 rolls.

Quote: Ace2

As a regular 3-point molly/dolly player, my practical question is as follows. Let's say I take a weekend trip to Vegas and I estimate I'm going to play craps for 12 hours total (assume 400 pass line decisions in 12 hours), I'll play a 3 Point Dolly the entire time with $100 flat bets plus max odds on a 3-4-5 table.

Using the second column of the data table below, what is the expected result and standard deviation for my trip? That's generally all I want to know for any game or version of game I play, but I can't figure it out

Expected units bet 21.318409 30.313926
Expected win -0.086295 -0.083150
House Edge 0.004048 0.002743
Probability Win 0.304783 0.679841
Probability Loss 0.673288 0.299207
Average win given win 15.880052 7.393417
Average loss given loss 7.316730 17.076796
Average rolls 8.525470 8.525547
Standard deviation 13.966288 14.635488
link to original post

Here is how I would do it:

400 pass line decisions (at 3.38 rolls per decision) would take an average of this many rolls: (400)(3.38) ≈ 1352

1352 rolls would decide an average of this many 3PDs: 1352 / 8.525547 ≈ 159

The standard deviation of the win/loss over 159 3PDs, based on a unit bet is: (14.635488)(sqrt 159) ≈ 184

The standard deviation for 159 3PDs, based on $100 per bet, is: (184)(100) = $18,400

The average loss playing 159 3PDs at $100 per bet is: (100)(159)(0.083150) ≈ $1,319

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: Wizard

Quote: odiousgambit

'to cover a point' is not typical Craps lingo, I don't think, so I think I would add a definition.
link to original post

Thank you. What would you recommend as the proper way to say to stop making don't pass and don't come bets when you have money on three numbers already?
link to original post

you wrote "Make a don't pass or don't come bet every roll, until you have three numbers covered."

you could say "Make a don't pass or don't come bet every roll, until three numbers have traveled to be resolved, from here on defined as 'covered' points."
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I say “covered” and think that’s a common craps term when betting come. If I bet come I usually just keep coming until the bases are loaded.

If I'm going to buy-in for a 3 Point Dolly with 15 bets ($15 Table Minimum + $90 @ 6X odds = $105 x 3 bets = $315), it'd cost me $4,725 ($315 x 15).
Don't plan on that buy-in lasting long. I'd double it to $10K.

So I'm trying a bit of 3 Point Dolly on WinCraps. My latest shooter had $30 on the DP and 2 DC's with $180 odds on each, total bet of $630. I won $30 + $90 on the 4, $30 + $120 on the 5, $30 + $150 on the 8. Total win of $450. If this were a Bubble Craps machine starting with $1,000, I'd be down to $370 on the 1st 3 bets with odds, and back up to $1,450 on the win, $1,080 paid on the win. I don't remember if I should be laying or placing to lose if I wanted those extra 4X odds on the bubble craps, and how much less they'd pay.

From Wizard's site: https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/
As mentioned above, Place to Lose and Lay bets are exactly the same thing, but with different odds. Here is the better bet, according to the number bet on:
6 and 8: Place to Lose bet always better.
5 and 9: Place to Lose bet always better, unless commission on Lay is on win only.
4 and 10: Lay bet always better.

Place to Lose bets to lose are the opposite of Place bets. They win on a seven, and lose on the the number you're betting against. As far as I know, Place to Lose bets are found only in Australia, England, and some Internet casinos. The odds paid are as follows.
6 and 8: 4 to 5
5 and 9: 5 to 8
4 and 10: 5 to 11

So a $30 DP bet with $60 odds, and $120 on the Place to Lose except Lay on the 4/10.
The 6/8 would pay $96 + $50 odds + $30 DP/DC = $176 (-$4 from odds bets)
The 5/9 would pay $75 + $40 odds + $30 DP/DC = $145 (-$5 from odds bets)
Bubble craps is commission on win only. So the 5/9 lay bet would pay $76 + $40 odds + $30 DP/DC = $146 (-$4 from odds bets)
The 4/10 would pay $57 + $30 odds + $30 DP/DC = $117 (-$3 from odds bets)
So Place to Lose on the 6/8, and Lay the 5/9 & 4/10 on the Bubble Craps.
The craps table doesn't have Place to Lose and it isn't needed except on a table with less than 3X, 4X, 5X odds.

If I had $100 on the DP, the point was 6/8, with $200 odds and $400 on Place to Lose, the payout would be $700 bet + $100 + $166.67 odds + $320 P2L = $1286.67 which is just too much over $1200. If the point was 5/9 the payout would be $700 bet + $100 + $133.33 odds + $266.67 Lay - $13.33 vig = $1186.67 which is just enough below $1200 by just the vig.
I shouldn't be doing a 3 Point Dolly above $30 with 2X odds & 4X lay/P2L to keep under a $1200 payout on a 7-out. Just cash out and find a table to play at.

Playing some more WinCraps and noticing I'm losing like WinCraps wants me to playing the 3X,4X,5X odds 3 Point Molly. Losing up to 3 bets per shooter is no substitute for losing on 50 shooters in a row on the Do side. Losing over 315 units already. Guess I'll need to win 315 units on the 3 Point Dolly to catch up, but WinCraps will turn that into yet another 315 unit loss.

Quote: unJon

I say “covered” and think that’s a common craps term when betting come. If I bet come I usually just keep coming until the bases are loaded.
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I'm going to drop this but I will point out that you are undoubtedly a veteran player ... all those, including me, know what it means

I'm perhaps kind of an odd guy in that I remember going through a distressful period like approaching a Craps table and being intimidated by it all. Others, I notice, forget all about that and often even instead develop contempt for those 'not in the know' even though, sometimes just a short period earlier, they also knew next to nothing.

Present company excluded from such I'm sure, and I do mean that.

Quote: unJon

I say “covered” and think that’s a common craps term when betting come. If I bet come I usually just keep coming until the bases are loaded.
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btw that's a good way to get "too much in action" for my taste. At just about any table minimum, wins or losses can get into the $thousands fairly quickly. Since we are talking about 3 point mollies and dollies, I'll praise again that it is a great way to limit how much you have in action which, on the dark side, is not quite as intuitive

apologies, I seem to have gotten up this morning in quite an opinionated condition. Certainly it is a matter of personal taste what you want to do

Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

Again, let me emphasize that all of the math regarding the HA/HE such as the 1.41% PL is determined by doing, fictiously, (playing) the same thing for each and every roll of the dice and each and every hand played every time without deviation. The simple question: Is that how you or anybody you know play the game?

tuttigym
link to original post

yes. many people are flat bettors or close to it. They might double their bets sometimes and that's about it
link to original post

Really? You know this how? Want to give out a percentage of players who might engage in this type of play? Are you prepared to venture accurate results of those who play that way? So do any of them win? Or do they walk away after several hours of play just losing say $141 after buying in for $10k?

tuttigym

Duplicate

Quote: tuttigym

Really? You know this how? Want to give out a percentage of players who might engage in this type of play? Are you prepared to venture accurate results of those who play that way? So do any of them win? Or do they walk away after several hours of play just losing say $141 after buying in for $10k?

tuttigym
link to original post

Jeez it's just an observation. On the other hand, I do sometimes see people that vary their bets immensely..like they normally bet $50 per hand but once in a while they bet $500. But, from what I've seen, that's a very small percentage of people. Most stay in a stable range.

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

Again, let me emphasize that all of the math regarding the HA/HE such as the 1.41% PL is determined by doing, fictiously, (playing) the same thing for each and every roll of the dice and each and every hand played every time without deviation. The simple question: Is that how you or anybody you know play the game?

tuttigym
link to original post

yes. many people are flat bettors or close to it. They might double their bets sometimes and that's about it
link to original post

Really? You know this how? Want to give out a percentage of players who might engage in this type of play? Are you prepared to venture accurate results of those who play that way? So do any of them win? Or do they walk away after several hours of play just losing say $141 after buying in for $10k?

tuttigym
link to original post

I dont know where the statistic comes from but the average craps player plays with double odds.

Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym

Really? You know this how? Want to give out a percentage of players who might engage in this type of play? Are you prepared to venture accurate results of those who play that way? So do any of them win? Or do they walk away after several hours of play just losing say $141 after buying in for $10k?

tuttigym
link to original post

Jeez it's just an observation. On the other hand, I do sometimes see people that vary their bets immensely..like they normally bet $50 per hand but once in a while they bet $500. But, from what I've seen, that's a very small percentage of people. Most stay in a stable range.
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I agree, so having posted that what is the actual message and the end game regarding all the "math"? Virtually, all the "math" or conversations regarding the HE/HA become or are irrelevant for actual play. Craps players such as yourself or Mr. W or Mr. Mendelson play with their particular strategy or "system." Their success or failure at any given session is totally dependent on the table play at that time. There is no "long term" at that moment. Winning sessions and losing sessions have nothing to do with STD's, ooops. SD's (standard deviations), and the ever present HA/HE can go by the boards depending on which side one is playing (right or dark) when the table is hot or cold. A player who can navigate a choppy table is really quite rare and is disciplined and patient so as not to go off the rails and either leave the session or wait for some eventual change. Discussing the "math" is a total distraction IMO simply because it fails to speak to the reality of actual play. Your post above basically proves that statement.

tuttigym

Tuttigym, as mentioned previously, one of your main issues is that you are not thinking beyond the next few minutes of play. Think of gambling sort of like investing in the stock market: how good or bad you did today or this year is usually irrelevant to the big picture...it's just noise and normal short-term variance. It's your cumulative return over decades that actually matters and you will realize something fairly close to the long-term average rate of return if you stay invested in quality stocks long enough

PS there is no such thing as a hot, cold or choppy table...except in the past tense. Regardless of the past, you have a 241/495 chance of winning your next passline bet. It's that simple

Quote: Ace2

Regardless of the past, you have a 241/495 chance of winning your next passline bet. It's that simple
link to original post

I think it's 244/495 = 49.29%.

1 - 2*49.29% - 1 = 1.41%, the house edge.

Quote: Wizard

Quote: Ace2

Regardless of the past, you have a 241/495 chance of winning your next passline bet. It's that simple
link to original post

I think it's 244/495 = 49.29%.

1 - 2*49.29% - 1 = 1.41%, the house edge.
link to original post

Good catch. Typo on my part

241/495 is actually the probability that a tourist wins his next passline bet haha

Quote: Ace2

Tuttigym, as mentioned previously, one of your main issues is that you are not thinking beyond the next few minutes of play. Think of gambling sort of like investing in the stock market: how good or bad you did today or this year is usually irrelevant to the big picture...it's just noise and normal short-term variance. It's your cumulative return over decades that actually matters and you will realize something fairly close to the long-term average rate of return if you stay invested in quality stocks long enough

PS there is no such thing as a hot, cold or choppy table...except in the past tense. Regardless of the past, you have a 241/495 chance of winning your next passline bet. It's that simple
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Ace2, Your assumption of my play is pretty right on. I play in the moment because for me, there is no "long term." I got out of the market in 2007 right before the "crash." I had an old annuity I had purchased during the Carter years when the interest rates were sky high. That financial instrument paid a guaranteed rate of 4.5% and still does today. I took all those stock assets (cash) and put them in the annuity. It took 11 plus years for the market to recover. In the meantime and to this date that investment is producing six figures a year tax deferred. There is no way that those investments I sold off in '07 would be at the level I now have or the return, In Sept of 2020, I took part of my IRA and purchased thousands of share of one stock, XOM (Exon-Mobil) at $45/ share. Earlier this month I sold them all at $91+/share. I was living in the moment then, and I am living in the moment now. That is my "big picture." I believe that you might agree that my "average rate of return" far surpassed the "long term average rate of return."

You are probably correct about the table conditions described above, however, I personally believe sessions have trends which can be ridden or taken advantage. As far as the PL bet, I rarely play it. For me, it is a real loser especially after the point is established. That 244/495 figure flips dramatically after the point is established. I am pretty sure you recognize that too, and so does Mr. W.

tuttigym

Arguing against a turnip is never a good idea. Doing so is futile and risks appearing foolish. It also annoys the turnip.

Quote: tuttigym

I got out of the market in 2007 right before the "crash." I had an old annuity I had purchased during the Carter years when the interest rates were sky high. It took 11 plus years for the market to recover.

That 244/495 figure flips dramatically after the point is established. I am pretty sure you recognize that too, and so does Mr. W.

tuttigym
link to original post

11 years?!! The S&P was setting new highs within 5 years of the 2007 crash.

It's true that your probability of winning changes substantially once a point is established. However, you cannot bet on just part of the passline bet...you must bet on all of it. When you find a casino that allows you to turn off passline bets after a point is established (or turn off don't pass bets during come out rolls) please let me know. That would give the player over a 20% advantage on the house. You can stick with your place/buy bets and lose about ten times what you'd lose with line bets + odds

Quote: pwcrabb

Arguing against a turnip is never a good idea. Doing so is futile and risks appearing foolish. It also annoys the turnip.
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I am not sure who the "turnip" is to whom you are referring. In any event, this debate has been polite and might be enlightening to some. I am not personally "annoyed," and I would hope Mr.Ace2 is not either. I do not believe we are "shouting" at each other; it is a respectful conversation with differing points of view.

tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

11 years?!! The S&P was setting new highs within 5 years of the 2007 crash.

Yes it did, but I was not going to take that gamble at the time and my alternative plan worked out quite well with a guarantee return that was better than anything out there at the time and tax deferred (did interest rates ever recover?), plus my portfolio was reduced in value by 70+% and did not fully recover for quite some time.

Quote: Ace2

It's true that your probability of winning changes substantially once a point is established.

You have validated my position again, so thank you for that.

Quote: Ace2

However, you cannot bet on just part of the passline bet...you must bet on all of it.

As I stated, for me, the PL including odds, is a terrible bet especially since you have stated, indirectly, a 20% HA.

Quote: Ace2

When you find a casino that allows you to turn off passline bets after a point is established (or turn off don't pass bets during come out rolls) please let me know.
That would give the player over a 20% advantage on the house.

It is not necessary for my play, so don't hold your breath.

tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

When you find a casino that allows you to turn off passline bets after a point is established (or turn off don't pass bets during come out rolls) please let me know.
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At any time you can turn off of take down any and all don't bets.

If you dont want to bet pass or dont pass during come out rolls you dont have to.

After a point is established you can place the point or lay the point.

These are basic rules.

Great idea.

Does the 0.27% house edge change, if the table limits odds to a different number? i.e. if odds are limited to 2x?
Given the lower odds bets, the units lost / units won figures would change.. I imagine raising that edge..?

The amount lost to the HA would stay the same. The amount bet on odds would be reduced, so the overall HA percentage goes back up. The variance is what you will likely notice.

So if I lost 105 units at a 3X, 4X, 5X table, it would have been 45 units lost at a 2X odds table.
1/2.3333333 x 105 = 45.

Quote: TwelveOr21

Does the 0.27% house edge change, if the table limits odds to a different number? i.e. if odds are limited to 2x?
Given the lower odds bets, the units lost / units won figures would change.. I imagine raising that edge..?
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Yes, the less odds you can lay, the higher the house edge.


The house edge is 0.455% with double odds and 0.431% with "full double" odds.

Interestingly my local CET casino gives slot club points on bets made at stadium gaming, bubble craps, and Casino Wizard machines, at $50 to 1 credit. The Casino Wizards have a 3X maximum odds with a $1 minimum bet. A 0.34% house edge for the low roller compares favorably to the 1.56% house edge on 9/5 Jacks or Better (at $10 for 1 point) with much less volatility and no need to remember or look up strategy.