Poll

3 votes (21.42%)
1 vote (7.14%)
4 votes (28.57%)
1 vote (7.14%)
6 votes (42.85%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (7.14%)
1 vote (7.14%)
1 vote (7.14%)
9 votes (64.28%)

14 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1423
  • Posts: 24346
May 19th, 2022 at 12:27:47 PM permalink
Let me introduce a a new betting system. I'm sure people already use it, but does it have a name? The system name is the Three Point Dolly and is the opposite of the Three Point Molly.

Here is how it works.

  1. Player makes don't pass, don't come, and lays odds only.
  2. Don't pass and don't come bets should always be one unit.
  3. Player should lay the maximum odds allowed, which my simulation assumes is based on 3-4-5x (meaning the player always can lay 6x) the don't pass or don't come.
  4. Player always makes a don't pass or don't come bet on every rolls except if he already is on three numbers.
  5. Player quits on the seven out


Here are some results based on over 41 billion sessions played.

Average units bet per session = 30.313926
Average loss per session = .08315 units
Ratio amount won to amount bet = -0.002743
Probability session win = 67.98%

I know most player don't like to play this way, where there is usually a limited win and the worse case scenario can be very bad. Then again, the Martingale is much loved.

Here is a table of the count of each win in the simulation. I'm putting it in spoiler tags, because its rather big.

In case your wondering how the big wins are possible, the shooter might win on pass bets, preferably that the player didn't bet, and hit a seven on a come out roll, causing the player to win on other numbers previously established. For example shooter rolls: 4,5,6,8,9,10,8,7,.... In this situation, the player would win on the 4,5, and 6 and still be going.


Win Count Probability
-349 1 0.000000
-346 1 0.000000
-343 1 0.000000
-342 1 0.000000
-341 1 0.000000
-337 1 0.000000
-336 1 0.000000
-333 1 0.000000
-331 1 0.000000
-328 2 0.000000
-325 2 0.000000
-323 1 0.000000
-322 2 0.000000
-320 1 0.000000
-319 3 0.000000
-317 2 0.000000
-316 4 0.000000
-315 1 0.000000
-314 3 0.000000
-313 6 0.000000
-312 1 0.000000
-311 6 0.000000
-310 7 0.000000
-309 6 0.000000
-308 2 0.000000
-307 4 0.000000
-306 6 0.000000
-305 4 0.000000
-304 1 0.000000
-303 6 0.000000
-302 3 0.000000
-301 4 0.000000
-300 4 0.000000
-299 5 0.000000
-298 5 0.000000
-297 2 0.000000
-296 8 0.000000
-295 6 0.000000
-294 11 0.000000
-293 9 0.000000
-292 7 0.000000
-291 12 0.000000
-290 12 0.000000
-289 10 0.000000
-288 11 0.000000
-287 6 0.000000
-286 15 0.000000
-285 19 0.000000
-284 18 0.000000
-283 20 0.000000
-282 19 0.000000
-281 23 0.000000
-280 18 0.000000
-279 29 0.000000
-278 24 0.000000
-277 25 0.000000
-276 30 0.000000
-275 30 0.000000
-274 29 0.000000
-273 33 0.000000
-272 42 0.000000
-271 41 0.000000
-270 38 0.000000
-269 36 0.000000
-268 40 0.000000
-267 45 0.000000
-266 36 0.000000
-265 34 0.000000
-264 51 0.000000
-263 72 0.000000
-262 48 0.000000
-261 65 0.000000
-260 76 0.000000
-259 74 0.000000
-258 71 0.000000
-257 94 0.000000
-256 118 0.000000
-255 73 0.000000
-254 101 0.000000
-253 118 0.000000
-252 109 0.000000
-251 129 0.000000
-250 132 0.000000
-249 141 0.000000
-248 159 0.000000
-247 146 0.000000
-246 163 0.000000
-245 143 0.000000
-244 186 0.000000
-243 186 0.000000
-242 229 0.000000
-241 194 0.000000
-240 269 0.000000
-239 266 0.000000
-238 287 0.000000
-237 279 0.000000
-236 356 0.000000
-235 328 0.000000
-234 378 0.000000
-233 357 0.000000
-232 370 0.000000
-231 400 0.000000
-230 441 0.000000
-229 482 0.000000
-228 532 0.000000
-227 604 0.000000
-226 584 0.000000
-225 591 0.000000
-224 619 0.000000
-223 717 0.000000
-222 747 0.000000
-221 842 0.000000
-220 802 0.000000
-219 885 0.000000
-218 916 0.000000
-217 951 0.000000
-216 1,129 0.000000
-215 1,213 0.000000
-214 1,259 0.000000
-213 1,320 0.000000
-212 1,351 0.000000
-211 1,432 0.000000
-210 1,569 0.000000
-209 1,695 0.000000
-208 1,889 0.000000
-207 1,975 0.000000
-206 1,962 0.000000
-205 2,129 0.000000
-204 2,169 0.000000
-203 2,372 0.000000
-202 2,703 0.000000
-201 2,822 0.000000
-200 3,021 0.000000
-199 3,169 0.000000
-198 3,350 0.000000
-197 3,431 0.000000
-196 3,717 0.000000
-195 4,043 0.000000
-194 4,535 0.000000
-193 4,790 0.000000
-192 4,974 0.000000
-191 5,129 0.000000
-190 5,446 0.000000
-189 5,729 0.000000
-188 6,372 0.000000
-187 6,958 0.000000
-186 7,289 0.000000
-185 7,526 0.000000
-184 7,974 0.000000
-183 8,266 0.000000
-182 8,913 0.000000
-181 9,956 0.000000
-180 11,109 0.000000
-179 11,685 0.000000
-178 11,577 0.000000
-177 12,107 0.000000
-176 12,669 0.000000
-175 13,866 0.000000
-174 15,458 0.000000
-173 16,954 0.000000
-172 17,733 0.000000
-171 18,425 0.000000
-170 18,539 0.000000
-169 19,472 0.000000
-168 21,452 0.000001
-167 23,866 0.000001
-166 26,470 0.000001
-165 27,854 0.000001
-164 28,335 0.000001
-163 28,487 0.000001
-162 30,177 0.000001
-161 33,426 0.000001
-160 37,550 0.000001
-159 41,555 0.000001
-158 43,705 0.000001
-157 43,810 0.000001
-156 44,389 0.000001
-155 46,779 0.000001
-154 51,776 0.000001
-153 58,871 0.000001
-152 64,193 0.000002
-151 67,643 0.000002
-150 67,928 0.000002
-149 67,985 0.000002
-148 71,347 0.000002
-147 79,793 0.000002
-146 90,808 0.000002
-145 100,786 0.000002
-144 104,743 0.000003
-143 105,155 0.000003
-142 105,227 0.000003
-141 110,273 0.000003
-140 124,010 0.000003
-139 142,640 0.000003
-138 157,332 0.000004
-137 164,308 0.000004
-136 162,050 0.000004
-135 159,953 0.000004
-134 170,158 0.000004
-133 192,443 0.000005
-132 223,194 0.000005
-131 246,656 0.000006
-130 254,875 0.000006
-129 250,895 0.000006
-128 247,073 0.000006
-127 260,710 0.000006
-126 297,807 0.000007
-125 348,598 0.000008
-124 385,362 0.000009
-123 396,886 0.000010
-122 386,098 0.000009
-121 378,076 0.000009
-120 399,790 0.000010
-119 461,508 0.000011
-118 542,355 0.000013
-117 606,451 0.000015
-116 619,362 0.000015
-115 596,253 0.000014
-114 579,807 0.000014
-113 614,138 0.000015
-112 716,824 0.000017
-111 849,465 0.000021
-110 949,523 0.000023
-109 964,534 0.000023
-108 919,200 0.000022
-107 885,786 0.000022
-106 942,423 0.000023
-105 1,113,293 0.000027
-104 1,333,139 0.000032
-103 1,485,696 0.000036
-102 1,504,049 0.000037
-101 1,412,457 0.000034
-100 1,349,589 0.000033
-99 1,441,825 0.000035
-98 1,725,585 0.000042
-97 2,090,861 0.000051
-96 2,335,996 0.000057
-95 2,336,960 0.000057
-94 2,173,303 0.000053
-93 2,060,412 0.000050
-92 2,208,374 0.000054
-91 2,678,764 0.000065
-90 3,282,556 0.000080
-89 3,670,435 0.000089
-88 3,646,581 0.000089
-87 3,333,674 0.000081
-86 3,125,240 0.000076
-85 3,378,054 0.000082
-84 4,159,761 0.000101
-83 5,169,380 0.000126
-82 5,774,776 0.000140
-81 5,679,152 0.000138
-80 5,110,291 0.000124
-79 4,742,732 0.000115
-78 5,155,616 0.000125
-77 6,469,426 0.000157
-76 8,141,988 0.000198
-75 9,093,149 0.000221
-74 8,840,044 0.000215
-73 7,809,482 0.000190
-72 7,164,587 0.000174
-71 7,863,075 0.000191
-70 10,063,019 0.000245
-69 12,849,179 0.000312
-68 14,334,094 0.000348
-67 13,776,483 0.000335
-66 11,922,391 0.000290
-65 10,791,886 0.000262
-64 11,959,468 0.000291
-63 15,664,666 0.000381
-62 20,299,422 0.000493
-61 22,621,260 0.000550
-60 21,448,092 0.000521
-59 18,147,199 0.000441
-58 16,189,989 0.000393
-57 18,163,881 0.000441
-56 24,374,015 0.000592
-55 32,152,120 0.000781
-54 35,739,302 0.000869
-53 33,401,907 0.000812
-52 27,542,783 0.000669
-51 24,187,100 0.000588
-50 27,552,095 0.000670
-49 37,968,841 0.000923
-48 50,990,211 0.001239
-47 56,508,926 0.001373
-46 52,002,969 0.001264
-45 41,642,600 0.001012
-44 35,945,342 0.000874
-43 41,677,542 0.001013
-42 59,153,276 0.001438
-41 80,971,038 0.001968
-40 89,444,790 0.002174
-39 80,984,922 0.001968
-38 62,779,226 0.001526
-37 53,125,188 0.001291
-36 62,893,192 0.001528
-35 92,113,076 0.002238
-34 128,847,712 0.003131
-33 141,704,041 0.003444
-32 126,120,841 0.003065
-31 94,141,256 0.002288
-30 77,840,920 0.001892
-29 94,505,017 0.002297
-28 143,361,839 0.003484
-27 205,391,652 0.004991
-26 224,815,834 0.005463
-25 197,062,105 0.004789
-24 141,479,917 0.003438
-23 114,400,372 0.002780
-22 141,937,586 0.003449
-21 222,893,289 0.005417
-20 327,625,530 0.007962
-19 356,565,298 0.008665
-18 306,893,201 0.007458
-17 208,617,391 0.005070
-16 162,538,120 0.003950
-15 210,664,910 0.005119
-14 345,995,246 0.008408
-13 525,862,376 0.012779
-12 575,094,059 0.013976
-11 506,186,057 0.012301
-10 355,267,152 0.008633
-9 287,758,280 0.006993
-8 328,454,031 0.007982
-7 536,504,683 0.013038
-6 838,154,135 0.020368
-5 903,714,844 0.021961
-4 757,019,526 0.018397
-3 451,972,081 0.010984
-2 324,182,693 0.007878
-1 470,993,547 0.011446
0 862,177,144 0.020952
1 1,475,802,637 0.035864
2 1,966,020,072 0.047777
3 3,134,801,174 0.076180
4 3,227,145,242 0.078424
5 2,925,595,450 0.071096
6 1,070,503,000 0.026015
7 1,328,049,870 0.032273
8 2,245,337,384 0.054565
9 2,437,755,805 0.059241
10 2,001,363,460 0.048636
11 900,248,512 0.021877
12 383,862,607 0.009328
13 534,359,330 0.012986
14 947,140,171 0.023017
15 1,444,149,683 0.035095
16 1,084,274,535 0.026349
17 632,653,447 0.015374
18 164,648,522 0.004001
19 45,249,571 0.001100
20 16,597,713 0.000403
21 6,458,485 0.000157
22 2,274,071 0.000055
23 762,051 0.000019
24 261,002 0.000006
25 91,611 0.000002
26 32,066 0.000001
27 11,170 0.000000
28 3,924 0.000000
29 1,397 0.000000
30 480 0.000000
31 177 0.000000
32 49 0.000000
33 23 0.000000
34 11 0.000000
35 3 0.000000
36 2 0.000000



The question for the poll is what do you think of this strategy?
Last edited by: Wizard on May 22, 2022
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 3083
May 19th, 2022 at 12:57:59 PM permalink
Average units bet per session = 30.313926
Average loss per session = 08315 units

So 4 DP with odds bets and two DP bets per 7-out on average.
I'm gonna have to assume the 08315 units is missing the decimal place, so it's either -.08315 units or -0.8315 units per 7-out. (If I multiply 0.0138 by 6 DP bets per 7-out, no odds, that about equals the -0.08315 units number)
If you can lose 70 bets before a 7-out, that'd be 10 DP with Odds bets at 6X odds.
If you can lose 350 bets before a 7-out, that'd be 50 DP with Odds bets at 6X odds.
There's a never-ending supply of losers in this Dolly, versus the Molly which was capped at 3 losses per 7-out.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 1671
May 19th, 2022 at 1:07:03 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

There's a never-ending supply of losers in this Dolly, versus the Molly which was capped at 3 losses per 7-out.
link to original post

You will lose less with the Dolly (or any form of Don't Pass) compared to Molly. Lower edge
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 67
  • Posts: 3083
May 19th, 2022 at 1:15:14 PM permalink
Even at single odds, I have a 150 unit buy-in (25X expected betting rounds per 7-out at single odds) for the 3 Point Molly. I don't know how to convert that to the Dolly.

At triple odds, I have a 300 unit buy-in (25X expected betting rounds per 7-out at 3X odds) for the 3 Point Molly.
At 5X odds, I have a 450 unit buy-in (25X expected betting rounds per 7-out at 5X odds) for the 3 Point Molly.
At 6X odds, I have a 525 unit buy-in (25X expected betting rounds per 7-out at 6X odds) for the 3 Point Molly.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on May 19, 2022
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 314
  • Posts: 8825
May 19th, 2022 at 2:01:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ChumpChange

There's a never-ending supply of losers in this Dolly, versus the Molly which was capped at 3 losses per 7-out.
link to original post

You will lose less with the Dolly (or any form of Don't Pass) compared to Molly. Lower edge
link to original post

I've heard the variance is lower too. I'm not sure about that... Lay bets might tend to have that effect, but the average bet is higher too due to the way the odds are done
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 1671
Thanks for this post from:
odiousgambit
May 19th, 2022 at 2:26:01 PM permalink
The variance is almost identical. SD of 4.92 for pass with 3-4-5 odds and 4.91 with DP with 3-4-5 odds.

If I were a betting man I'd say that slight difference is due to the half bet being returned when 12 is rolled during DP come-out.
It’s all about making that GTA
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
  • Threads: 558
  • Posts: 3478
May 20th, 2022 at 12:28:30 AM permalink
Instead of 2 min DC bets at max odds, I take that amount of $ and put it into the DP.
So instead of $10dp and two $10 DC, I have a $30 DP/Max odds.

Mathematically, it's the same.
But how is my variance compared to 3point Dolly?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 314
  • Posts: 8825
May 20th, 2022 at 3:26:08 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Instead of 2 min DC bets at max odds, I take that amount of $ and put it into the DP.
So instead of $10dp and two $10 DC, I have a $30 DP/Max odds.

Mathematically, it's the same.
But how is my variance compared to 3point Dolly?
link to original post

you are increasing your variance. With these things, where the EV is the same, and the total action is the same, the way I look at it is that you are 'allowing the variance to work' ... that the EV is the same can be confounding.

The player who bets 20 $10 pass line bets has the same EV as the player who bet $200 on one pass line bet ... yet the latter is considered smarter IF that is also his total action [which typically perhaps it is not!]

That variance can go against you too, instead of helping you. But if the EV is negative, variance is the only hope
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
  • Threads: 149
  • Posts: 5009
May 20th, 2022 at 4:58:11 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ChumpChange

There's a never-ending supply of losers in this Dolly, versus the Molly which was capped at 3 losses per 7-out.
link to original post

You will lose less with the Dolly (or any form of Don't Pass) compared to Molly. Lower edge
link to original post



Chump Change is correct.

House edge has nothing to do with it. A monster roll will kill a don't player.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
  • Threads: 314
  • Posts: 8825
May 20th, 2022 at 7:20:55 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

Quote: ChumpChange

There's a never-ending supply of losers in this Dolly, versus the Molly which was capped at 3 losses per 7-out.
link to original post

You will lose less with the Dolly (or any form of Don't Pass) compared to Molly. Lower edge
link to original post



Chump Change is correct.

House edge has nothing to do with it. A monster roll will kill a don't player.
link to original post

to avoid that you just pick up your bet when the point turns out to be 6 or 8 ... or better yet, keep them up and sell them to me
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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