MousseTheDog
MousseTheDog
Joined: Mar 14, 2022
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
March 14th, 2022 at 3:28:01 PM permalink
Math Question for the Wizard, please.

What is the probability of one shooter, making five passes. The passes may result from naturals on the come out and or points won.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 110
  • Posts: 5417
Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
March 14th, 2022 at 3:45:11 PM permalink
Five consecutive passes? Sounds simple enough - the probability of making one pass is 244 / 495, so the probability of five in a row is (244 / 495)^5, or about 1 / 34.36.
MousseTheDog
MousseTheDog
Joined: Mar 14, 2022
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
March 14th, 2022 at 4:10:38 PM permalink
Thank you for your answer and the math. This too is very helpful. I did not consider this possibility.

However, no, not necessarily consecutive passes. Say the shooter rolls naturals as two of the passes, along the way, and makes three points. Mixing naturals with winning points. The order probably makes a difference? But for my purposes, I am after the probability for the event to occur.

While making the three points the shooter could roll 18 more or less times. Just a hypothetical example. Shooter could achieve the three points with less rolls or more rolls. Just attempting to produce a reasonable example here, if it at all helps.

How about without the naturals, five winning points?

You are kind to indulge my questions.
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 3473
March 14th, 2022 at 4:21:50 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Five consecutive passes? Sounds simple enough - the probability of making one pass is 244 / 495, so the probability of five in a row is (244 / 495)^5, or about 1 / 34.36.
link to original post



Would it count if he throws craps on some come out rolls but keeps rolling?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 1686
Thanks for this post from:
ChumpChange
March 14th, 2022 at 4:37:15 PM permalink
Assuming your question was "what's the probability of 5 consecutive pass line wins", which I think it was, TDG answered correctly

The probability of 5 consecutive pass line wins with 5 points won (not necessarily distinct points) is (134/495)^5 = apprx 1 in 688
Itís all about making that GTA
MousseTheDog
MousseTheDog
Joined: Mar 14, 2022
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
March 14th, 2022 at 4:39:51 PM permalink
Fantastic question! No craps on the come out. Thank you for catching this.
MousseTheDog
MousseTheDog
Joined: Mar 14, 2022
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
March 14th, 2022 at 4:51:34 PM permalink
Ace, thank you very much. You are kind to join in the game. That answer was powerful.
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
  • Threads: 78
  • Posts: 845
March 15th, 2022 at 11:42:50 AM permalink
Pass line wins can be duplicate? Or are you interested in separate pass line number wins which would be more in line with Fire Bets.
MousseTheDog
MousseTheDog
Joined: Mar 14, 2022
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
March 15th, 2022 at 12:34:30 PM permalink
Yes, duplicated is okay, any pass line win. Any Pass Line win, either during the come out cycle or during the point cycle, total wins five, before the seven-out and without any craps during the come out.

Example: Come out 7 / 11 / 8. Point is 8, point is made. Come out 7 / 9. Point is 9, point is made. Five wins on the pass line. Thank you for asking.

What is the probability of five random passes, on the pass line, before the seven-out, and with no craps on the come out, to include naturals and points won?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 110
  • Posts: 5417
March 15th, 2022 at 1:05:16 PM permalink
Quote: MousseTheDog

What is the probability of five random passes, on the pass line, before the seven-out, and with no craps on the come out, to include naturals and points won?
link to original post


I am pretty sure it is (244 / 495)^5, or about 1 / 34.36. I do not see why this was not acceptable the first time.

This is the probability of winning five Pass Line bets without losing any - five combinations of naturals / points made without any craps on the comeout or missed points.

  • Jump to: