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Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 15th, 2022 at 4:37:58 AM permalink
Better still, I guess, is that there are people who believe negative expectation systems can overcome the House Edge in the long run. Many casinos employees don't know a whole lot more about gambling than the gamblers do; they often know less.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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January 15th, 2022 at 4:45:01 AM permalink
This is a fun thread. Many posters that I think of as rational and evidence based seem to me to be irrationally invested in their opinion on this topic.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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January 15th, 2022 at 5:22:49 AM permalink
People never see me set the dice on a Bubble Craps machine, but they wonder how I'm such a good shooter on it.
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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January 15th, 2022 at 7:41:47 AM permalink
Quote: Dieter

I don't speak for everyone.
I'm actually pro-DI.
Unfortunately, like perpetual motion, I haven't seen it work yet.


So, does anything work for you?? Ace2 says it cannot happen. Is he correct??

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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January 15th, 2022 at 7:56:33 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I think my throws are more results orientated than means orientated, same with winning or losing at a gambling session.


Outstanding. There you have it all. Mr.CC is a PLAYER. So, I will ask you--is Ace2 correct? When you play are the vibes for you "negative expectations"? Does those thoughts even control your play?

tuttigym
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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January 15th, 2022 at 9:00:48 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Oh, good. We'd gone far too long here without nonsensical arguments being made. Glad to have you back, Tuttigym.


I ask reasonable question(s), and you reply with inflammatory rhetoric. Love it.

tuttigym
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 15th, 2022 at 9:31:03 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Mission146

Oh, good. We'd gone far too long here without nonsensical arguments being made. Glad to have you back, Tuttigym.


I ask reasonable question(s), and you reply with inflammatory rhetoric. Love it.

tuttigym
link to original post



No need to thank me; it's enough that I keep myself entertained.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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January 15th, 2022 at 9:55:47 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Negative expectation is when the probability of winning times the winning payout is less than 1. If you are betting that the next roll will be a 7 (1 in 6 chance) then any payout less than 6 for 1 (6.00) is negative expectation. Over the long run, you will roll a 7 almost exactly 1 in 6 times, so you will lose money with any payout less than 6.00. Guaranteed


First, thank you for answering my question. Unless I am misunderstanding, your "Guaranteed" does not hold up in that players many times walk away from the table winners and therefore have beaten the perceived "negative expectation." What I am trying to convey is that "negative expectation" is not necessarily an automatic outcome which is what I am interpreting from your definition. However, your second paragraph does, in part, address that perception.

Quote: Ace2

There is no AP in craps. It’s 100% a game of chance and every bet on the table is negative expectation. The most profitable strategy is to not play, the second best option is to play only the lowest house edge bets…which are pass/DP with max odds


Here is where we part ways, and of course, will drive many members of the forum ballistic. (You will tell by their frantic and possibly hysterical rebuttals.) After the point is established there are 30 ways to win a bet and only six ways to lose the bets placed. That translates to a 5 to 1 advantage over the house of winning A BET on any given roll of the dice thereafter. Is that win guaranteed? Absolutely not, but is a win more likely to occur? Yes.
$600 across ($100 place bet on each number) plus a $20 horn gives me that coverage. Two rolls without a 7 will usually net just over $200. (Oh yes, a 7 out wipes the player out but that is gambling.) Bringing all the bets down and playing $64 across will be AP because the PLAYER cannot lose the hand even with an immediate 7 out. If the hand continues, the player continues to reap the rewards of that AP.

While the assertion "100% ..game of chance" is correct (what gambling venues is not?), my depiction above does not provide the dire consequences you have portrayed with one exception as noted.

I obviously disagree with your last sentence about strategy.

tuttigym
Dieter
Administrator
Dieter
Joined: Jul 23, 2014
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January 15th, 2022 at 10:21:07 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Dieter

I don't speak for everyone.
I'm actually pro-DI.
Unfortunately, like perpetual motion, I haven't seen it work yet.


So, does anything work for you?? Ace2 says it cannot happen. Is he correct??

tuttigym
link to original post



Does anything work for me? Nope! I don't like dice.
I just think something might be possible, even if nobody has mastered it yet.
I have a hunch that reducing the number of sevens rolled is the wrong approach; just try to win a long series of pass line bets on the come out.
I think that a lot of people will find that less interesting than going for the longer odds.
May the cards fall in your favor.
TDVegas
TDVegas
Joined: Oct 30, 2018
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January 15th, 2022 at 10:24:21 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

After the point is established there are 30 ways to win a bet and only six ways to lose the bets placed.


“After”…?

You don’t have to wait for “after”. You can make that bet anytime you want. Are you accounting for the fact that you are risking $620 to win a LOT less on one roll and that one bad roll is also the most common combination and wipes out everything?

Quote: tuttigym

$600 across ($100 place bet on each number) plus a $20 horn gives me that coverage. Two rolls without a 7 will usually net just over $200. (Oh yes, a 7 out wipes the player out but that is gambling.) Bringing all the bets down and playing $64 across will be AP because the PLAYER cannot lose the hand even with an immediate 7 out.


It’s still a negative expectation. Why only $600? Make it $6,000…if it works. It doesn’t work, long term.

If you are ahead and you bring your bets down to a lower denomination…you’re an AP player? Huh?

In this type of thinking, if true…the only viable play would be to max out every place bet. If it works for $5, it works for $50 or $500 or $5,000. (Kelly criterion). It’s simply a factor of building bankroll over the long term AND, obviously, establishing that this “system” works.
Last edited by: TDVegas on Jan 15, 2022

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