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tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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January 13th, 2022 at 1:16:00 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Every combination of bets has a negative expectation. No system can beat that
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Please provide a "Webster" like definition of "negative expectation," and also provide the source of such. While you're at it, please define AP as opposed to "sure thing." Can an AP overcome the "negative expectation"? So, if a "combination of bets" has an overpowering advantage of beating the house on a onetime event, it still has a "negative expectation"? ("No system can beat that") Perhaps but players can and do all the time.

tuttigym
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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odiousgambit
January 13th, 2022 at 1:18:19 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

Every combination of bets has a negative expectation. No system can beat that
link to original post


Please provide a "Webster" like definition of "negative expectation," and also provide the source of such. While you're at it, please define AP as opposed to "sure thing." Can an AP overcome the "negative expectation"? So, if a "combination of bets" has an overpowering advantage of beating the house on a onetime event, it still has a "negative expectation"? ("No system can beat that") Perhaps but players can and do all the time.

tuttigym
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Oh, good. We'd gone far too long here without nonsensical arguments being made. Glad to have you back, Tuttigym.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
tuttigym
tuttigym
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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odiousgambit
January 13th, 2022 at 1:28:14 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Oh, good. We'd gone far too long here without nonsensical arguments being made. Glad to have you back, Tuttigym.
link to original post


Glad to oblige. So, are you going to answer the questions or do your dance and dodge thingy.? You know, the "I could, but it is a gambling fact, so I won't" or words of that nature like when I asked about the calculation of the odds of performing the 495 one time only come rolls to establish the 1.41% HA PL wager.

tuttigym
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Mission146
January 13th, 2022 at 1:32:22 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Mission146

Oh, good. We'd gone far too long here without nonsensical arguments being made. Glad to have you back, Tuttigym.
link to original post


Glad to oblige. So, are you going to answer the questions or do your dance and dodge thingy.? You know, the "I could, but it is a gambling fact, so I won't" or words of that nature like when I asked about the calculation of the odds of performing the 495 one time only come rolls to establish the 1.41% HA PL wager.

tuttigym
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I answered this question head on and in simple terms in the other thread it was brought up in. Donít recall you responding, but if you want to then please do in that thread.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
Joined: Dec 23, 2017
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January 13th, 2022 at 1:44:05 PM permalink
You would think someone could have created a mechanical device that would be able to toss the dice with the same amount of pressure and velocity and trajectory after setting the dice in a certain position to verify if this is even possible.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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January 13th, 2022 at 1:56:01 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: AlanMendelson

I have seen it work... but with fewer than 5 shooters. That's five in my lifetime.
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Describe one session with a "successful" DI that you have witnessed, i.e., the number of hands played and the number of rolls/hand and the number of point conversions within those hands. How many sessions with that DI did you witness? Did the "successful" DI 7 out at any time on a "short" hand? How long was he or she at the table, and was the shooter playing with green and black chips?

tuttigym
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I played with a cardiac surgeon many times at Caesars. On two other occasions I played with different DIs once.

What you are asking for is some statistic that shows these shooters win more than random shooters. Well, I have also reported that the biggest/longest rolls I've been on were by random shooters.

DI is not measured by wins. DI is identified by the (for lack of a better word) look of the roll of the dice.

Let me give you an example.

Put a sheet of aluminum foil on your bed and throw your dice so they hit the aluminum foil. Now look at the marks on the foil.

If you see impressions from the dice corners you dont have a controlled throw.

But if you see impressions of the two dice hitting flat or on the edges and the dice land close to each other then you have a controlled throw.

No one controls the dice after they hit the table. But if you have a controlled throw you have a better chance of limiting the movement of the dice after they hit the table.
Ace2
Ace2 
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unJon
January 13th, 2022 at 1:56:23 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

You would think someone could have created a mechanical device that would be able to toss the dice with the same amount of pressure and velocity and trajectory after setting the dice in a certain position to verify if this is even possible.
link to original post

They did built a machine to throw the dice perfectly every time. It could not influence the dice to any statistically significant degree. See attached link

https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1415&context=grrj

But that is not going to stop believers from believing. Nothing will
Itís all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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January 13th, 2022 at 2:02:14 PM permalink
I think my throws are more results orientated than means orientated, same with winning or losing at a gambling session.
Ace2
Ace2 
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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January 13th, 2022 at 2:07:09 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

Every combination of bets has a negative expectation. No system can beat that
link to original post


Please provide a "Webster" like definition of "negative expectation," and also provide the source of such. While you're at it, please define AP as opposed to "sure thing." Can an AP overcome the "negative expectation"? So, if a "combination of bets" has an overpowering advantage of beating the house on a onetime event, it still has a "negative expectation"? ("No system can beat that") Perhaps but players can and do all the time.

tuttigym
link to original post

Negative expectation is when the probability of winning times the winning payout is less than 1. If you are betting that the next roll will be a 7 (1 in 6 chance) then any payout less than 6 for 1 (6.00) is negative expectation. Over the long run, you will roll a 7 almost exactly 1 in 6 times, so you will lose money with any payout less than 6.00. Guaranteed

There is no AP in craps. Itís 100% a game of chance and every bet on the table is negative expectation. The most profitable strategy is to not play, the second best option is to play only the lowest house edge betsÖwhich are pass/DP with max odds
Itís all about making that GTA
Mission146
Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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January 13th, 2022 at 2:16:21 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Mission146

Oh, good. We'd gone far too long here without nonsensical arguments being made. Glad to have you back, Tuttigym.
link to original post


Glad to oblige. So, are you going to answer the questions or do your dance and dodge thingy.? You know, the "I could, but it is a gambling fact, so I won't" or words of that nature like when I asked about the calculation of the odds of performing the 495 one time only come rolls to establish the 1.41% HA PL wager.

tuttigym
link to original post



There is no possible question that you could ever ask that I would feel an obligation to answer, so, no. I'll respond to your posts if and when I feel like it, which won't be often. When I do, you can be sure that the tone will be condescending, sardonic, dismissive or some combination of the three.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219

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