18yos in a row revisited -an OD-created thread
Quote: MrVif as the Wiz claims the odds are such that such an event is impossible in the real world, that leaves only door number three.
Do you really want to go there?
Your existence is a far more unlikely event than 18 consecutive yos.
Here or there?...Which side of door #3 are you on?
Quote: MrVQuote: AlanMendelsonMrV do you understand that making false statements about my health are damaging, even libelous to someone who posts using their real name?
Sorry, that dog won't hunt.
A: You're a public figure, with the enhanced burden that imposes.
B: More importantly I never claimed anything, I simply wondered whether that might be the reason.
OK, you emphatically deny that you imagined, hallucinated or misremembered: got it.
If you didn't imagine it, and if as the Wiz claims the odds are such that such an event is impossible in the real world, that leaves only door number three.
Do you really want to go there?
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I'm waiting for someone who was there to tell me that the dealers, the shooter, his buddy and I all miscounted.
Until that happens your math doesn't mean it didnt happen. It means perhaps you doubt it happened or its unbelievable. Well, it was quite unbelievable. And if I didnt see it I wouldn't believe it either.
By the way, Mr Attorney, what if I wondered on a public forum if you beat your wife, used escrow money, and paid kickbacks to judges?
Just "wondered."
Quote: AlanMendelson... your math doesn't mean it didnt happen
The math speaks LOUDLY: "• Probability of 18 totals of 11 in 18 rolls of the dice = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000"
Hello, truly IMPOSSIBLE!
Get a grip, man.
Quote: rxwineI tried to think of something unbelievable that really happened to me, but came up with nada. What are the odds of nothing unbelievable happening to a person in a lifetime? I guess there’s still time.
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I don’t believe you.
Quote: unJonQuote: rxwineI tried to think of something unbelievable that really happened to me, but came up with nada. What are the odds of nothing unbelievable happening to a person in a lifetime? I guess there’s still time.
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I don’t believe you.
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Heh.
You're just gullible :o)Quote: rxwineI tried to think of something unbelievable that really happened to me, but came up with nada. What are the odds of nothing unbelievable happening to a person in a lifetime? I guess there’s still time.
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But that is pretty believable.
He used to do that a lotQuote: rxwine…although there was that time, Elvis called me up to the stage, to take over for him, ‘cause he saw me on my YouTube channel, and I took over for him, and played his guitar behind my back and got 3 ovations of my finale’ of Heartbreak Hotel.
But that is pretty believable.
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Quote: OnceDear]He used to do that a lot
I wonder what the odds are that he did it eighteen times in a row?
It seems the argument here is after the 17th Yo, the dice should have known better than to roll an eleven again.
Collectively, 18Yo's is highly improbable but the throwing of an eleven isn't.
And each of the 18 throws would have been independent, correct?
At any rate, I can't speak for 18 Yo's but I do know I saw 32 reds in a row at roulette so if the prevailing argument is 32 reds in a row is impossible to have witnessed then I have to side with Alan because I know I witnessed it.
Quote: MDawgI don't know why people just have to assume that reports of improbable events are inaccurate.
All sorts of improbable events have happened throughout history.
I myself observed 22 Players in a row, at Baccarat, which is certainly less probable than 32 Reds in a row at Roulette. By the way, DarkOz, was it a single or double 0 wheel?
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Too bored to do the math, but 22 players in a row has to be far more likely than 32 reds in a row at roulette.
Quote: coachbellyQuote: Mission146Strictly speaking, only someone who was there could absolutely declare that it didn’t happen.
What are you talking about "could"?
They certainly could, can, and they do just that...it happens all the time around here.Quote: SOOPOO18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN.
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Could definitively declare based on his own experience of the incident that is the subject matter of the claim, not that you didn’t know what I mean. A person can type anything.
Quote: darkozI thought the whole mathematical argument was that Craps and Roulette are independent events with absolutely no bearing on previous events.
It seems the argument here is after the 17th Yo, the dice should have known better than to roll an eleven again.
Collectively, 18Yo's is highly improbable but the throwing of an eleven isn't.
And each of the 18 throws would have been independent, correct?
At any rate, I can't speak for 18 Yo's but I do know I saw 32 reds in a row at roulette so if the prevailing argument is 32 reds in a row is impossible to have witnessed then I have to side with Alan because I know I witnessed it.
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The bigger problem, when arguing the claim from a purely mathematical standpoint, is that any sequence of eighteen rolls is pretty darn near, “Impossible,” it’s just that nobody would notice the other, “Nearly impossible,” ones.
Quote: Mission146not that you didn’t know what I mean.
I think know what you mean.
When he writes "18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN" or "60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN"
Dr Feelgood doesn't know what he's talking about...he's just talking out his ass.
Is that what you mean?
Quote: coachbellyQuote: Mission146not that you didn’t know what I mean.
I think know what you mean.
When he writes "18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN" or "60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN"
Dr Feelgood doesn't know what he's talking about...he's just talking out his ass.
Is that what you mean?
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No, I mean that he’s offering an educated opinion based on the improbability of an event, the event’s description and the lack of corroborating evidence or account of any kind.
In other words, I mean that he doesn’t know in an empirical sense of the word.
Quote: Mission146nobody would notice the other, “Nearly impossible,” ones.
Naysayers would notice, question and browbeat the reporter over any "nearly impossible" sequence they post here.
It has more to do with the personalities involved than any math.
Nobody harassed the chick who reported hitting the same roulette number 8 times in a row.
So, seeing something extremely and impossibly unique is possible, ONCE. But likely, never again.
Am I right?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_R._Ginther
Perhaps the world imagined it.
Quote: coachbellyQuote: Mission146nobody would notice the other, “Nearly impossible,” ones.
Naysayers would notice, question and browbeat the reporter over any "nearly impossible" sequence they post here.
It has more to do with the personalities involved than any math.
Nobody harassed the chick who reported hitting the same roulette number 8 times in a row.
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No, they wouldn’t. If I went to the Craps Table, or anyone, and record an exact sequence of twenty, or so, results…that specific sequence would be, “ Nearly impossible,” by the same standard, but we know the dice must be rolled twenty times.
Anything is highly improbable…is my point; 18 Yos is just nearly impossible in a noteworthy way.
Quote: darkozAn event of odds 1 to 18 septillion.
Stop sweating the small stuff...math theorists are certain that their own existence is impossible.
see: InfiniteMonkeyTheorem.
Quote: coachbellyQuote: darkozAn event of odds 1 to 18 septillion.
Stop sweating the small stuff...math theorists are certain that their own existence is impossible.
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For those who thought it was impossible to enjoy a CoachBelly post, the above post proves them wrong. I like it!
Quote: MrVI'd group the 18 yo's in a row claim with the Infinite Monkey Theorem.
see: InfiniteMonkeyTheorem.
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Or as David Letterman said…
An infinite number of monkeys, in front of a infinite number of typewriters…
Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.
Unique events happen all the time.
Quote: linksjunkieWrap your brain around this.
Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.
Unique events happen all the time.
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8.0658x10^67
Good point.
Quote: linksjunkieWrap your brain around this.
Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.
Unique events happen all the time.
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I’ve tried to make that point many times. If someone says they shuffled a deck and the results were 3S, 8H, 9D, JC, 10C,etc….you would have no reason to disbelieve him. If he said it was AS, AH, AD, AC, 2S, 2H, 2D, 2C, 3S,etc… you WOULD have a reason to disbelieve him.
For those who don’t understand why, I won’t be able to explain it to them.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: linksjunkieWrap your brain around this.
Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.
Unique events happen all the time.
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I’ve tried to make that point many times. If someone says they shuffled a deck and the results were 3S, 8H, 9D, JC, 10C,etc….you would have no reason to disbelieve him. If he said it was AS, AH, AD, AC, 2S, 2H, 2D, 2C, 3S,etc… you WOULD have a reason to disbelieve him.
For those who don’t understand why, I won’t be able to explain it to them.
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So a random shuffle means cards cant be shuffled in order???
Then how do you account for dealt royals in table games such as Mississippi Stud and Ultimate Texas Holdem... not to mention getting quad aces in order in Aces Bonus poker?
https://images.app.goo.gl/DLwA98dpYPQDKReq6
The photo is to illustrate the game.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: linksjunkieWrap your brain around this.
Every time you shuffle a deck of cards it is probably the first time in human history the deck is in that exact order.
Unique events happen all the time.
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I’ve tried to make that point many times. If someone says they shuffled a deck and the results were 3S, 8H, 9D, JC, 10C,etc….you would have no reason to disbelieve him. If he said it was AS, AH, AD, AC, 2S, 2H, 2D, 2C, 3S,etc… you WOULD have a reason to disbelieve him.
For those who don’t understand why, I won’t be able to explain it to them.
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Your disbelief at a shuffled but ordered deck of cards is unremarkable. But your lack of disbelief over the less likely occurrences you come across, including (to paraphrase coachbelly) your own existence, is truly remarkable.
Quote: darkozAn event of odds 1 to 18 septillion.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joan_R._Ginther
Perhaps the world imagined it.
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For an accurate figure, how many lifetime tickets did she buy?????
