18yos in a row revisited -an OD-created thread

Alan Mendelson's claim of having seen 18 consecutive yos (elevens) at craps

The claim by Alan of 18 consecutive yos is the one that most disturbs me. There are many factors that are in the direction of tending to want to believe Alan:
- He uses his real name as his Forum id, and so he has no anonymity to hide behind.
- He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations).
- His claim is not a boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story.
- Indeed, he has no apparent incentive to lie, and furthermore he arguably has an incentive to never mention it again.
- IMO, his behavior in the forum is not consistent with a hypothesis that he is an egomaniac or an attention-seeker (and please be careful how you discuss that, so that you don't violate rules)
- He fully acknowledges that the event he claims to have seen is unbelievable because it is statistically very unlikely to have happened
- He has made no other preposterous claims of this sort that I am aware of that stain his reputation for credibility

Now the odds of throwing 2 dice 18 times and having them all be elevens (an unordered pair of 5,6) is easily calculated: 2.54E-23. Or, about 1 in 39 thousand billion billion.

But that's not the correct calculation. Because Alan isn't claiming he's only seen craps dice rolled 18 times in his life. So, lets assume he has seen 10,000 throws of the dice in his life. Maybe that's high, or maybe that's low. But, as a simplification, I state that each of 10,000 throws he has seen could have been the start of 18 consecutive yos (that were followed and preceded by a throw that was not 11). And once having seen 2 or three in a row, he would have stayed around to observe the streak.

So, again, doing a simplistic analysis, that would roughly reduce the probability to about 2.54E-19.

But that still isn't the most relevant calculation. Because no one is saying "I can believe that 18 consecutive yos have been thrown, but I just don't believe that AlanMendelson saw it. What people don't believe is that it ever happened and that anyone has seen it. And what I hypothesize is that if it ever actually happened during the past 40 years, then someone would be in our forum claiming to have seen it -whether the person is Alan Mendelson or someone else is of no importance to the statistical analysis.

Well how many dice throws have there been on craps tables in casinos in the world during the last 40 years? Well I know how many hours there have been in the past 40 years, let me estimate that at an operating craps table the dice get thrown about 60 times per hour. (If that's wrong someone please provide a better number and we'll plug it in.) Now, I understand that the number of casino craps tables in operation fluctuate, but I will use an assumption that, on average, 200 craps tables are operating worldwide (24/7,365.25 days per year.) So, using those assumptions, I calculate that, worldwide. there were 4.2 billion dice throws at craps tables during the past 40 years. So, doing a simplistic calculation, the chance of 18 consecutive yos having been thrown at a casino anywhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.07e-14.

But even that may not be the best possible calculation. Because no one is objecting by saying, "I cannot believe 18 consecutive yos, but I would have believed 18 consecutive rolls of 3 (i.e., 2,1) or 18 consecutive rolls in which the dice came up with a 5 and a 1 showing. The essence of what people are saying is that they cannot believe 18 consecutive dice rolls occurred with outcomes that are the same two dice faces - whether it was yos, or threes, or (4,3) or (6,1) or whatever.

So, given all of my assumptions, the odds of two identical die faces being rolled 18 consecutive times in a casino craps game somewhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.6e-12 or about 1 in 600 billion.

Which, IMO, is still an unbelievably low probability. It very hard to have any confidence in the reliability of this claim. For truly random dice rolls.

So one last question: what if the dice rolls were not truly random? Could it be that the roller substituted his own weighted pair of dice? Or could there have been some other way of controlling the outcome of the dice rolls? Is it reasonable to suppose that this (non-random dice rolls) might have happened once during the past 40 years somewhere in the world? I'm just wondering.

Quote: gordonm888

Alan Mendelson's claim of having seen 18 consecutive yos (elevens) at craps

The claim by Alan of 18 consecutive yos is the one that most disturbs me. There are many factors that are in the direction of tending to want to believe Alan:
- He uses his real name as his Forum id, and so he has no anonymity to hide behind.
- He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations).
- His claim is not a boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story.
- Indeed, he has no apparent incentive to lie, and furthermore he arguably has an incentive to never mention it again.
- IMO, his behavior in the forum is not consistent with a hypothesis that he is an egomaniac or an attention-seeker (and please be careful how you discuss that, so that you don't violate rules)
- He fully acknowledges that the event he claims to have seen is unbelievable because it is statistically very unlikely to have happened
- He has made no other preposterous claims of this sort that I am aware of that stain his reputation for credibility

Now the odds of throwing 2 dice 18 times and having them all be elevens (an unordered pair of 5,6) is easily calculated: 2.54E-23. Or, about 1 in 39 thousand billion billion.

But that's not the correct calculation. Because Alan isn't claiming he's only seen craps dice rolled 18 times in his life. So, lets assume he has seen 10,000 throws of the dice in his life. Maybe that's high, or maybe that's low. But, as a simplification, I state that each of 10,000 throws he has seen could have been the start of 18 consecutive yos (that were followed and preceded by a throw that was not 11). And once having seen 2 or three in a row, he would have stayed around to observe the streak.

So, again, doing a simplistic analysis, that would roughly reduce the probability to about 2.54E-19.

But that still isn't the most relevant calculation. Because no one is saying "I can believe that 18 consecutive yos have been thrown, but I just don't believe that AlanMendelson saw it. What people don't believe is that it ever happened and that anyone has seen it. And what I hypothesize is that if it ever actually happened during the past 40 years, then someone would be in our forum claiming to have seen it -whether the person is Alan Mendelson or someone else is of no importance to the statistical analysis.

Well how many dice throws have there been on craps tables in casinos in the world during the last 40 years? Well I know how many hours there have been in the past 40 years, let me estimate that at an operating craps table the dice get thrown about 60 times per hour. (If that's wrong someone please provide a better number and we'll plug it in.) Now, I understand that the number of casino craps tables in operation fluctuate, but I will use an assumption that, on average, 200 craps tables are operating worldwide (24/7,365.25 days per year.) So, using those assumptions, I calculate that, worldwide. there were 4.2 billion dice throws at craps tables during the past 40 years. So, doing a simplistic calculation, the chance of 18 consecutive yos having been thrown at a casino anywhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.07e-14.

But even that may not be the best possible calculation. Because no one is objecting by saying, "I cannot believe 18 consecutive yos, but I would have believed 18 consecutive rolls of 3 (i.e., 2,1) or 18 consecutive rolls in which the dice came up with a 5 and a 1 showing. The essence of what people are saying is that they cannot believe 18 consecutive dice rolls occurred with outcomes that are the same two dice faces - whether it was yos, or threes, or (4,3) or (6,1) or whatever.

So, given all of my assumptions, the odds of two identical die faces being rolled 18 consecutive times in a casino craps game somewhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.6e-12 or about 1 in 600 billion.

Which, IMO, is still an unbelievably low probability. It very hard to have any confidence in the reliability of this claim. For truly random dice rolls.

So one last question: what if the dice rolls were not truly random? Could it be that the roller substituted his own weighted pair of dice? Or could there have been some other way of controlling the outcome of the dice rolls? Is it reasonable to suppose that this (non-random dice rolls) might have happened once during the past 40 years somewhere in the world? I'm just wondering.
link to original post

That was a great post. Thank you

Gordonm888 I have another possibility for you which I mentioned once in passing.

What if the two dice were not balanced dice?

The shooter may not be responsible but perhaps the factory was?

Consider this: each shooter gets to choose two of five dice for his turn. Now, what if this particular shooter happened to have picked one die which favored a 5 and one die which favored a six?

What are the chances one shooter would pick those two particular dice?

Here's something NO ONE EVER ASKED ME BEFORE:

How long was this shooter's roll?

Well, except for the 18 yos it wasn't long at all.

The shooter established a point and then had his run of yos and then a couple more numbers. And then 7 out.

The more I think about it, the 18 yos in a row could have been helped by off balance dice... two off balanced dice which THIS SHOOTER had chosen.

I also wrote about how I once chose from a new stick of dice that had just been unwrapped... and a pip from the 6 on one die was missing.

Quality control is not perfect.

Let me add:

If the next shooter chose the die that favored the 6 but the second die was balanced his roll would appear normal and random.

I should also add: the stickman checked the dice three times during the 18 yos and found nothing wrong. But what he did was move the dice with his stick. Perhaps that small motion was not enough for the off balance of the dice to show.

Quote: gordonm888

Alan Mendelson's claim of having seen 18 consecutive yos (elevens) at craps

The claim by Alan of 18 consecutive yos is the one that most disturbs me. There are many factors that are in the direction of tending to want to believe Alan:
- He uses his real name as his Forum id, and so he has no anonymity to hide behind.
- He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations).
- His claim is not a boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story.
- Indeed, he has no apparent incentive to lie, and furthermore he arguably has an incentive to never mention it again.
- IMO, his behavior in the forum is not consistent with a hypothesis that he is an egomaniac or an attention-seeker (and please be careful how you discuss that, so that you don't violate rules)
- He fully acknowledges that the event he claims to have seen is unbelievable because it is statistically very unlikely to have happened
- He has made no other preposterous claims of this sort that I am aware of that stain his reputation for credibility

Now the odds of throwing 2 dice 18 times and having them all be elevens (an unordered pair of 5,6) is easily calculated: 2.54E-23. Or, about 1 in 39 thousand billion billion.

But that's not the correct calculation. Because Alan isn't claiming he's only seen craps dice rolled 18 times in his life. So, lets assume he has seen 10,000 throws of the dice in his life. Maybe that's high, or maybe that's low. But, as a simplification, I state that each of 10,000 throws he has seen could have been the start of 18 consecutive yos (that were followed and preceded by a throw that was not 11). And once having seen 2 or three in a row, he would have stayed around to observe the streak.

So, again, doing a simplistic analysis, that would roughly reduce the probability to about 2.54E-19.

But that still isn't the most relevant calculation. Because no one is saying "I can believe that 18 consecutive yos have been thrown, but I just don't believe that AlanMendelson saw it. What people don't believe is that it ever happened and that anyone has seen it. And what I hypothesize is that if it ever actually happened during the past 40 years, then someone would be in our forum claiming to have seen it -whether the person is Alan Mendelson or someone else is of no importance to the statistical analysis.

Well how many dice throws have there been on craps tables in casinos in the world during the last 40 years? Well I know how many hours there have been in the past 40 years, let me estimate that at an operating craps table the dice get thrown about 60 times per hour. (If that's wrong someone please provide a better number and we'll plug it in.) Now, I understand that the number of casino craps tables in operation fluctuate, but I will use an assumption that, on average, 200 craps tables are operating worldwide (24/7,365.25 days per year.) So, using those assumptions, I calculate that, worldwide. there were 4.2 billion dice throws at craps tables during the past 40 years. So, doing a simplistic calculation, the chance of 18 consecutive yos having been thrown at a casino anywhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.07e-14.

But even that may not be the best possible calculation. Because no one is objecting by saying, "I cannot believe 18 consecutive yos, but I would have believed 18 consecutive rolls of 3 (i.e., 2,1) or 18 consecutive rolls in which the dice came up with a 5 and a 1 showing. The essence of what people are saying is that they cannot believe 18 consecutive dice rolls occurred with outcomes that are the same two dice faces - whether it was yos, or threes, or (4,3) or (6,1) or whatever.

So, given all of my assumptions, the odds of two identical die faces being rolled 18 consecutive times in a casino craps game somewhere in the world during the past 40 years is roughly 1.6e-12 or about 1 in 600 billion.

Which, IMO, is still an unbelievably low probability. It very hard to have any confidence in the reliability of this claim. For truly random dice rolls.

So one last question: what if the dice rolls were not truly random? Could it be that the roller substituted his own weighted pair of dice? Or could there have been some other way of controlling the outcome of the dice rolls? Is it reasonable to suppose that this (non-random dice rolls) might have happened once during the past 40 years somewhere in the world? I'm just wondering.
link to original post

- His claim is not a "boast; i.e., he is not the hero of his story"

One must go back and read what lead to that and other incredible claims he has made. If memory serves me correctly, In Alan's case's it's usually rooted in some kind of 'teaching moment' to prove a point. Once others do a double-take and the calculators come out, this...." - He is a journalist, and journalists are presumably trained (or at least instructed) on the importance of telling the truth (more so than for most other occupations)." MUST BE PROTECTED AT ALL COSTS!!

Axelwolf specifically what other incredible claims have I made?

Be specific because you have been attacking me for years.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quality control is not perfect.

It's not you Alan.

If anyone had shown up here and written that he witnessed a group of players win every single hand of baccarat over a 3 hour+ period the regulars here would have been all over his case for years.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Gordonm888 I have another possibility for you which I mentioned once in passing.

What if the two dice were not balanced dice?

The shooter may not be responsible but perhaps the factory was?

Consider this: each shooter gets to choose two of five dice for his turn. Now, what if this particular shooter happened to have picked one die which favored a 5 and one die which favored a six?

What are the chances one shooter would pick those two particular dice?

Here's something NO ONE EVER ASKED ME BEFORE:

How long was this shooter's roll?

Well, except for the 18 yos it wasn't long at all.

The shooter established a point and then had his run of yos and then a couple more numbers. And then 7 out.

The more I think about it, the 18 yos in a row could have been helped by off balance dice... two off balanced dice which THIS SHOOTER had chosen.

I also wrote about how I once chose from a new stick of dice that had just been unwrapped... and a pip from the 6 on one die was missing.

Quality control is not perfect.

Let me add:

If the next shooter chose the die that favored the 6 but the second die was balanced his roll would appear normal and random.

I should also add: the stickman checked the dice three times during the 18 yos and found nothing wrong. But what he did was move the dice with his stick. Perhaps that small motion was not enough for the off balance of the dice to show.
link to original post

I think the imbalance in the dice would have to be quite large to be able to cause the dice to have the same outcome on almost every roll. I'm no expert, but I suspect the amount of imbalance needed to reliably get the same roll is probably outside the realm of manufacturing defects. In other words, it would be a monstrously large defect to get this result so many times in a row.

I wasn't there, so my imagination is not constrained by any of the actual details of what you experienced. But is it conceivable that this was a stunt -a publicity stunt - on the part of some over-zealous casino employees (including an employee or friend of an employee posing as the shooter) in order to impress the gambling reporter and create publicity for their casino? Intentionally weighted dice are (as I understand it) capable of generating the same outcome on repeated rolls. The fact that the 18 yos were almost the totality of this shooter's session is a detail that itself seems odd.

I cant imagine it was a stunt.

No one at the table bet on the yo -- not the shooter or his buddy. There was a fourth player at the table on the other end but I dont remember him staying at the table thru the whole run.

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quality control is not perfect.

It's not you Alan.

If anyone had shown up here and written that he witnessed a group of players win every single hand of baccarat over a 3 hour+ period the regulars here would have been all over his case for years.
link to original post

You are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?

Quote: AlanMendelson

You are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?

That's right...imagine the mathsplaining of how that was impossible...imagine the snarky insults directed at the reporter.

Oh wait, you don't have to imagine that...you lived it and you're still living it.

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

You are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?

That's right...imagine the mathsplaining of how that was impossible...imagine the snarky insults directed at the reporter.

Oh wait, you don't have to imagine that...you lived it and you're still living it.
link to original post

And I'm still waiting for Axelwolf to specifically write about all my "other incredible claims."

Alan, didn't you claim that either you or your son had about four or so royals in one day?

Didn't you recently walk it back?

As for the claim of you seeing eighteen yo's, I flat out never believed for one minute that it happened, and I still don't believe it.

You knowl that if in fact it happened Caesars would have publicized it, tracked it, kept the tape and told the press about it: IT"S GREAT PUBLICITY and the gambling public in sin city would eat it up like an aarvark sucks up ants.

Hell, The Cal memorializes much lesser events, i.e. someone holding the dice for an hour: 18 yo's in a row not only trumps that feat, it surpasses in importance the three plus hour long roll in AC.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

You are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?

That's right...imagine the mathsplaining of how that was impossible...imagine the snarky insults directed at the reporter.

Oh wait, you don't have to imagine that...you lived it and you're still living it.
link to original post

And I'm still waiting for Axelwolf to specifically write about all my "other incredible claims."
link to original post

I can't remember everything, but here are some, perhaps the total...seen 18 yo's in a row, 20 losses in a row BJ, son 5 Royals in a day and lost, some super-duper DI guy.

Quote: MrV

Alan, didn't you claim that either you or your son had about four or so royals in one day?

FIVE.

Quote: MrV

Alan, didn't you claim that either you or your son had about four or so royals in one day?

Didn't you recently walk it back?

As for the claim of you seeing eighteen yo's, I flat out never believed for one minute that it happened, and I still don't believe it.

You knowl that if in fact it happened Caesars would have publicized it, tracked it, kept the tape and told the press about it: IT"S GREAT PUBLICITY and the gambling public in sin city would eat it up like an aarvark sucks up ants.

Hell, The Cal memorializes much lesser events, i.e. someone holding the dice for an hour: 18 yo's in a row not only trumps that feat, it surpasses in importance the three plus hour long roll in AC.
link to original post

So... like Axelwolf you want to bring up an issue from another forum. Not only do you want to bring up an issue from another forum but you are also bringing up an issue that was settled years ago. And I even responded to the issue just a couple of days ago when Axelwolf brought it up again from the other forum.

But MrV, the difference between YOU and AXELWOLF is that Axelwolf knew it was improper to bring up issues from A DIFFERENT FORUM and Axelwolf deleted his comment shortly after posting it.

But since you chose not to read my response on this forum (responding to Axelwolf) I'll again put this to rest with this comment: MY SON GAVE ME THE WRONG INFORMATION AND I REPEATED HIS WRONG INFORMATION. He did not hit five single line royals in one day but he did hit one or two $4000 royals in one day and the other wins for a total of five were also around $4000 each. And yes, as he confirmed on THE OTHER FORUM he still had a net loss on the day.

You have been riding my ass for years MrV and you brought over to this forum the same crap from the other forums that you started about 20 years ago with the AOL newsgroup about craps.

You question why Caesars didnt publicize the 18 yos in a row. Well I dont know. It didnt get any attention outside of the people at the table.

And for the record, Caesars did not publicize when a craps player had a million dollar win and when I asked about it Caesars said "these things happen all the time." And I put that on TV.

And Caesars did not publicize when a player broke the "grandma's record" for the longest craps roll, beating the AC record.

But I'll tell you what Caesars did do: they set up my wedding at a craps table. And it not only was in the Review Journal but Robin Leach wrote about it on his website and column. THAT Caesars publicized.

Stop trolling me.

Quote: coachbelly

Quote: AlanMendelson

You are referring to the unshuffled cards, I believe?

That's right...imagine the mathsplaining of how that was impossible...imagine the snarky insults directed at the reporter.

Oh wait, you don't have to imagine that...you lived it and you're still living it.
link to original post

Whenever something out of the ordinary comes up that creates a situation where events are no longer random, it's fairly easy to understand.

Quote: AxelWolf

I can't remember everything, but here are some, perhaps the total...seen 18 yo's in a row, 20 losses in a row BJ, son 5 Royals in a day and lost, some super-duper DI guy.
link to original post

I'll respond.

18 yos in a row: I saw it.

20 losses in a row at BJ. Yep, I was playing $1 blackjack at the Sahara. I lost $20.

My son and the 5 royals: my son gave me the wrong info. He did have five jackpots of about $4000 each. He confirmed he had a net loss.

I've seen in my life three and maybe four craps players who I believe have a true controlled throw. That's all I ever said.

Stop trolling me.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: MrV

Alan, didn't you claim that either you or your son had about four or so royals in one day?

Didn't you recently walk it back?

As for the claim of you seeing eighteen yo's, I flat out never believed for one minute that it happened, and I still don't believe it.

You knowl that if in fact it happened Caesars would have publicized it, tracked it, kept the tape and told the press about it: IT"S GREAT PUBLICITY and the gambling public in sin city would eat it up like an aarvark sucks up ants.

Hell, The Cal memorializes much lesser events, i.e. someone holding the dice for an hour: 18 yo's in a row not only trumps that feat, it surpasses in importance the three plus hour long roll in AC.
link to original post

So... like Axelwolf you want to bring up an issue from another forum. Not only do you want to bring up an issue from another forum but you are also bringing up an issue that was settled years ago. And I even responded to the issue just a couple of days ago when Axelwolf brought it up again from the other forum.

But MrV, the difference between YOU and AXELWOLF is that Axelwolf knew it was improper to bring up issues from A DIFFERENT FORUM and Axelwolf deleted his comment shortly after posting it.

But since you chose not to read my response on this forum (responding to Axelwolf) I'll again put this to rest with this comment: MY SON GAVE ME THE WRONG INFORMATION AND I REPEATED HIS WRONG INFORMATION. He did not hit five single line royals in one day but he did hit one or two $4000 royals in one day and the other wins for a total of five were also around $4000 each. And yes, as he confirmed on THE OTHER FORUM he still had a net loss on the day.

You have been riding my ass for years MrV and you brought over to this forum the same crap from the other forums that you started about 20 years ago with the AOL newsgroup about craps.

You question why Caesars didnt publicize the 18 yos in a row. Well I dont know. It didnt get any attention outside of the people at the table.

And for the record, Caesars did not publicize when a craps player had a million dollar win and when I asked about it Caesars said "these things happen all the time." And I put that on TV.

And Caesars did not publicize when a player broke the "grandma's record" for the longest craps roll, beating the AC record.

But I'll tell you what Caesars did do: they set up my wedding at a craps table. And it not only was in the Review Journal but Robin Leach wrote about it on his website and column. THAT Caesars publicized.

Stop trolling me.
link to original post

The original statement I read regarding the five Royals was posted, discussed, and debated on here. The fact that your son debunked that claim has also been discussed here.

I still have no clue what you are talking about regarding deleted posts, I can't swear I didn't delete something, but I'm thinking at least nothing significant, but feel free to let me know what I delete. I thought you said I also deleted something on a different forum as well.

I never discussed my son and his five video poker jackpots on this site until you brought it up.

My son's (false) statement was discussed about FIVE YEARS AGO on VCT.

YOU Axelwolf brought it up here trying to discredit me. But FIVE YEARS AGO on VCT my son made it clear about the single line royals and the other wins of about $4000 each resembling a single line royal.

MY SON HAS NEVER POSTED ON THIS FORUM AND THERE WAS NO REASON FOR ME TO BRING IT UP HERE.

What short memory you have about editing your posts to delete comments.

Stop trolling me.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: AxelWolf

I can't remember everything, but here are some, perhaps the total...seen 18 yo's in a row, 20 losses in a row BJ, son 5 Royals in a day and lost, some super-duper DI guy.
link to original post

I'll respond.

18 yos in a row: I saw it.

20 losses in a row at BJ. Yep, I was playing $1 blackjack at the Sahara. I lost $20.

My son and the 5 royals: my son gave me the wrong info. He did have five jackpots of about $4000 each. He confirmed he had a net loss.

I've seen in my life three and maybe four craps players who I believe have a true controlled throw. That's all I ever said.

Stop trolling me.
link to original post

I'm not trolling you. You seem to have come here to defend people who make imprabable claims.
I'm attempting to show that one should be very leery in believing gamblers when they make improbable claims.

Yes, you want to water down the 5 Royal thing into a simple mistake reporting what your son told you. Not so fast, It didn't quite go down that way. Without going back(yet) and showing all the times it was repeated, discussed, debated, and called out over the years,( remember, you got nasty with me regarding this and you were willing to bet 5k that it happened.)

How is it that a successful investigative reporter can't pick up the phone/email/in-person/PM(IIRC your son had even been participating on that forum at some point before the truth came out) and simply ask his son for details? <<Mindboggling.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I never discussed my son and his five video poker jackpots on this site until you brought it up.

My son's (false) statement was discussed about FIVE YEARS AGO on VCT.

YOU Axelwolf brought it up here trying to discredit me. But FIVE YEARS AGO on VCT my son made it clear about the single line royals and the other wins of about $4000 each resembling a single line royal.

MY SON HAS NEVER POSTED ON THIS FORUM AND THERE WAS NO REASON FOR ME TO BRING IT UP HERE.

What short memory you have about editing your posts to delete comments.

Stop trolling me.
link to original post

And if I(or someone) can prove differently can we then safely assume that all your other gambling-related claims are incorrect as well?

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: AxelWolf

I can't remember everything, but here are some, perhaps the total...seen 18 yo's in a row, 20 losses in a row BJ, son 5 Royals in a day and lost, some super-duper DI guy.
link to original post

I'll respond.

18 yos in a row: I saw it.

20 losses in a row at BJ. Yep, I was playing $1 blackjack at the Sahara. I lost $20.

My son and the 5 royals: my son gave me the wrong info. He did have five jackpots of about $4000 each. He confirmed he had a net loss.

I've seen in my life three and maybe four craps players who I believe have a true controlled throw. That's all I ever said.

Stop trolling me.
link to original post

I'm not trolling you. You seem to have come here to defend people who make imprabable claims.
I'm attempting to show that one should be very leery in believing gamblers when they make improbable claims.

Yes, you want to water down the 5 Royal thing into a simple mistake reporting what your son told you. Not so fast, It didn't quite go down that way. Without going back(yet) and showing all the times it was repeated, discussed, debated, and called out over the years,( remember, you got nasty with me regarding this and you were willing to bet 5k that it happened.)

How is it that a successful investigative reporter can't pick up the phone/email/in-person/PM(IIRC your son had even been participating on that forum at some point before the truth came out) and simply ask his son for details? <<Mindboggling.
link to original post

There you go again Axelwolf.

Well for the record I was a member of this forum before Mdawg and it's wrong to call me someone who is here to defend people who make improbable claims.

You continue to bring up information about posts from another forum which I never discussed here until you brought them up. You persist in using false information from my son (which I believed as a father should believe) to try to discredit me.

Isnt it wonderful Axelwolf or whatever your real name is to go after (troll, accuse, torment) someone who not only posts with his real name but is a public figure? What pleasure and sense of accomplishment that must give you!

Stop trolling me.

Quote: AlanMendelson

What short memory you have about editing your posts to delete comments.

Please enlighten me, I've made quite a few posts, I have no doubt I have edited and deleted some( I have edited many), however, you're making it sound as if I have done so for some nefarious reason, or in some attempt to hide some comments. That would be unusual for me to do so.

If you are talking about a post where I responded to Wellbush, I honestly didn't think I posted it before I deleted it. If That's what you're talking about 😴. I wanted to clarify what he was talking about before I responded(I even saved what I wrote so I could respond I'm if he answered, I still intend to) Certainly wouldn't have been up there for very long at all, perhaps SOME 60 seconds.

Quote: gordonm888

Alan Mendelson's claim of having seen 18 consecutive yos (elevens) at craps

I've split this off from the 60 win's thread as it is really a separate topic.
For those visiting this topic for the first time, it relates to a claim by Alan that he witnessed 11 being rolled 18 times consecutively at a live craps table. He originally claimed it on or before Jan 2016 and it was discussed to death in this thread

He still asserts that he absolutely did witness the event.

Gordon has tried to present a case for Alan's account to be literally true. A noble effort, but he seems to overlook certain possibilities in deference to Alan. Not meant as a personal insult, but we might note that Alan is human.

I do not for one second believe or even suspect that Alan or anyone else ever actually witnessed 18 Yos in a row.
I also accept that Alan is NOT deliberately lying, or trying to deceive in any way.

We may draw our own conclusions about the credibility of the claim, but I WARN. personal attacks on Alan or anyone in this thread WILL result in suspensions. It happened before. It will happen again. I do recognise how it's almost impossible to challenge the claim without making, possibly derogatory, observations about Alan, but that's all the rules allow.

Post thoughtfully in this thread, or not at all.

Rule #1. Absolutely no personal insults. If you disagree with another forum member, politely attack the writing, not the writer. This policy also applies to family members of forum members, but is considered a more severe infraction, especially female family members. (Amended 2/23/14 to not allow personal insults at all. The previous policy was more lenient. Amended again 1/31/19 to include family members.)

Quote: AlanMendelson

You said this. "I never discussed my son and his five video poker jackpots on this site until you brought it up."

Do you stand by that statement, yes or no?

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

What short memory you have about editing your posts to delete comments.

I wanted to clarify what he was talking about before I responded(I even saved what I wrote so I could respond I'm if he answered, I still intend to) Certainly wouldn't have been up there for very long at all, perhaps SOME 60 seconds.
link to original post

It's perfectly acceptable to edit posts within the available window of opportunity, to correct errors or even to redact technical rule breaches. If a moderator notices or quotes the errant part of the post, then that is the misfortune of the poster, but it didn't happen this time.

Minor rebuke to Axel for importing the 5 royal's claim in from that other forum, but it was salient, addressing Gordon's assertion that Alan is not known for a history of making outrageous claims.

Thank you for writing the caution above, Once Dear. But why don't you just put an end to this. I have.

I am being attacked because I can believe MDawg's claims. I guess I have an open mind. As a journalist I was taught to have an open mind. I was also taught to report and not to judge. I also know that things happen that not only push the envelope but break the envelope.

As an example, who ever thought casinos in Las Vegas would close their doors for weeks at a time? Well... no one did which is why many Vegas casinos weren't built with doors that could NOT be locked!

I am disappointed that the moderators have allowed discussions from another forum to be brought here for no other reason than to try to discredit me. And these discussions in another forum have NOTHING to do about the 18 yos AND NOTHING to do with my position about MDawg's posts. These discussions from another forum were ONLY made here to discredit, belittle and dishonor me.

Quote: OnceDear

Gordon has tried to present a case for Alan's account to be literally true. ]

This was attempted many times. One must go back and read. Alan seems to resist anything other than some random roller legitimately rolled 18 yo's in a row.

IE: Alan, Perhaps the dice were loaded.
Only then was it mentioned that the stick man rattled them around a bit with the stick.

Quote: OnceDear

Minor rebuke to Axel for importing the 5 royal's claim in from that other forum

Ya think?

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: AlanMendelson

What short memory you have about editing your posts to delete comments.

I wanted to clarify what he was talking about before I responded(I even saved what I wrote so I could respond I'm if he answered, I still intend to) Certainly wouldn't have been up there for very long at all, perhaps SOME 60 seconds.
link to original post

It's perfectly acceptable to edit posts within the available window of opportunity, to correct errors or even to redact technical rule breaches. If a moderator notices or quotes the errant part of the post, then that is the misfortune of the poster, but it didn't happen this time.

Minor rebuke to Axel for importing the 5 royal's claim in from that other forum, but it was salient, addressing Gordon's assertion that Alan is not known for a history of making outrageous claims.
link to original post

Excuse me, Mr Moderator. Do you think repeating what your son tells you is making an outrageous claim?

Do you even know what that original discussion was about? No you don't.

The original discussion was about how could someone lose all of their winnings after a big win. The point was my son had $20,000 of W2Gs but finished the night with a net loss. THAT is what the discussion was really about.

For the record AGAIN my son came over to me after a night of playing (we were in different parts of Caesars) and told me he hit five single line royals of $4000 each but lost it all because after each royal he moved up in denomination.

In reality he only hit, if I remember now, two $4000 royals but he hit three other pays of about $4k each.

I did NOT challenge my son. He's my son, I'm his father, over the number of royals. He gave me the wrong info.

But the point of the story didnt change: he still finished the night with a net loss.

So did I make an outrageous claim? No I didnt.

Neither did I make an outrageous claim when I lost 20 $1 hands playing blackjack or when I said I saw three and possibly four craps shooters who I thought had controlled throws. What's outrageous about saying those things?

What's outrageous is that I've been insulted and trolled.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: OnceDear

Gordon has tried to present a case for Alan's account to be literally true. ]

This was attempted many times. One must go back and read. Alan seems to resist anything other than some random roller legitimately rolled 18 yo's in a row.

IE: Alan, Perhaps the dice were loaded.
Only then was it mentioned that the stick man rattled them around a bit with the stick.
link to original post

You really need to review the original thread AND what I posted tonight about how the dice might have been off balance.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Thank you for writing the caution above, Once Dear. But why don't you just put an end to this. I have.

You have not put an end to it. You made the 18Yos claim. You own it. You have no need to defend it.

Quote:

I am being attacked because I can believe MDawg's claims. I guess I have an open mind. As a journalist I was taught to have an open mind. I was also taught to report and not to judge. I also know that things happen that not only push the envelope but break the envelope.

You use the word 'I' almost as often as I do $:o)
Don't you see that you, your cognitive ability, your memory, your credibility are inseparable from the claim. That's somewhat unfortunate and makes moderation of this topic difficult.

We could say that 'As a journalist' you were trained to write exciting headlines and sell lots of sensational editorials, to grow audience. Let's not get into defending the whole journalist profession, or your choice of that profession.

Quote:

As an example, who ever thought casinos in Las Vegas would close their doors for weeks at a time? Well... no one did which is why many Vegas casinos weren't built with doors that could NOT be locked!

A bit of bad design there, from unprepared managers and fools. But they were only human and no doubt did cost/benefit analysis.

Quote:

I am disappointed that the moderators have allowed discussions from another forum to be brought here for no other reason than to try to discredit me. And these discussions in another forum have NOTHING to do about the 18 yos AND NOTHING to do with my position about MDawg's posts. These discussions from another forum were ONLY made here to discredit, belittle and dishonor me.
link to original post

Valid point, but this wasn't exactly fresh drama from that other forum. That other forum used to be a facet of your journalism career, wasn't it?
I've referred this 'complaint' to Wizard and the other mods for our deliberation.

Let me make this clear. I made no claim regarding Mdawg. I don't know who he is, I never saw him play.

All I have said is that I have an open mind to what he has said.

No one has provided any proof that what he has posted is false. NO ONE.

Stop attacking me for having an open mind.

There is NO connection whatsoever between what I saw at Caesars and what Mdawg has posted.

==============

Regarding the other forum. That discussion came up AFTER I gave the forum to Todd Witteles and I no longer was an owner, moderator or had any control over its content. I was only a participant.

I havent posted there or even visited that forum in a very, very long time. I dont know if it still exists.

Once Dear I do want to comment on this from your post above:

"We could say that 'As a journalist' you were trained to write exciting headlines and sell lots of sensational editorials, to grow audience."

I was well trained. And the first three rules of journalism that I was trained to follow were:

1. Accuracy
2. Accuracy
3. Accuracy

What you see now when you watch CNN, MSNBC, Fox, Newsmax is not journalism but opinion masquerading as journalism.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I havent posted there or even visited that forum in a very, very long time. I dont know if it still exists.
link to original post

I'm not calling you a liar.
It's a very, very long time since you posted there in June
116 days by my reckoning.

Everything's relative.

You really don't know if it still exists?

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: OnceDear

Gordon has tried to present a case for Alan's account to be literally true. ]

This was attempted many times. One must go back and read. Alan seems to resist anything other than some random roller legitimately rolled 18 yo's in a row.

IE: Alan, Perhaps the dice were loaded.
Only then was it mentioned that the stick man rattled them around a bit with the stick.
link to original post

You really need to review the original thread AND what I posted tonight about how the dice might have been off balance.
link to original post

I would love to. Link please.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Excuse me, Mr Moderator. Do you think repeating what your son tells you is making an outrageous claim?

Do you even know what that original discussion was about? No you don't.

The original discussion was about how could someone lose all of their winnings after a big win. The point was my son had $20,000 of W2Gs but finished the night with a net loss. THAT is what the discussion was really about.

For the record AGAIN my son came over to me after a night of playing (we were in different parts of Caesars) and told me he hit five single line royals of $4000 each but lost it all because after each royal he moved up in denomination.

In reality he only hit, if I remember now, two $4000 royals but he hit three other pays of about $4k each.

I did NOT challenge my son. He's my son, I'm his father, over the number of royals. He gave me the wrong info.

But the point of the story didnt change: he still finished the night with a net loss.

So did I make an outrageous claim? No I didnt.

Neither did I make an outrageous claim when I lost 20 $1 hands playing blackjack or when I said I saw three and possibly four craps shooters who I thought had controlled throws. What's outrageous about saying those things?

What's outrageous is that I've been insulted and trolled.
link to original post

I think the discussion was prompted after somebody ask a question about hitting two Royals and their current or future results of what was possible.

Yes, you were trying to make a point! Unfortunately, that point was trying to be made using incorrect information. I was absolutely certain this information was incorrect. I clarified and reclarified multiple times... FIVE SINGLE-LINE ROYALS IN ONE DAY. No funny games, no multiple lines, or wild card BS. You continued to say it happened. I wasn't even really arguing the AND lost once the multiple denominations was a factor, I didn't care about all that, it was the 5 royals I was certain absolutely didn't happen.

well, there certainly is some irony that Mr. 888 is the one who decided to start a thread that is so likely to result in multiple ejections

I would think it would be possible to write a rule that no one should make a post about probability and have it connected to some member's credibility. The 18 YOs should be strictly off limits

You could discuss probability of course, just not in this connection [if I made the rules]

and nothing about pot roasting either

I just wasted a bunch of minutes reading Axel/AM back and forth. As to the title of this thread…. 18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. Exactly why a poster would make such claims is really the topic for discussion.

When the entire 18 yo's originally came up on the other forum, my offering was that someone, presumably the house, had accidentally inserted weighted dice onto the table. My supposition, and it doesn't really matter if it was 15 or 16 or 18 yo's, the odds being so long, was that it was the only Ockham's Razor explanation.

Could such a thing happen, the house accidentally inserting rigged dice that were usually employed to guarantee results under other circumstances? I don't see why not. And I'm not saying the dice would be rigged for the house; certainly there have been occasions when the house rigs events for specific players.

I'm always sensitive to the possibility of events like this. Las Vegas has more top notch magicians than any other city in the world. Mechanics exist. Rigged dice exist. I would think it quite likely, for example, that if someone were identifiably mugging various card games on a consistent basis for high stakes, eventually he would run into a mechanic so skilled that he'd make Penn and Teller look like five-thumbed amateurs.

Quote: AlanMendelson

For the record AGAIN my son came over to me after a night of playing (we were in different parts of Caesars) and told me he hit five single line royals of $4000 each but lost it all because after each royal he moved up in denomination.

In reality he only hit, if I remember now, two $4000 royals but he hit three other pays of about $4k each.

I did NOT challenge my son. He's my son, I'm his father, over the number of royals. He gave me the wrong info.

Yes, you should believe your son when he originally tells you something. You should even feel comfortable repeating it. However, once you have been challenged multiple times and get "angry" at people challenging the claim over years of discussion off and on, even up to a point where you toss out a 5k bet that you can prove it with W2G's(or whatever) a reasonable person would get some facts. NO??

After reading the above how your son told you afterward, I find it very odd that you had so many details about how it all went down, in just the following post alone, well after the original post...

Alan: " that was my son who in about 24 hours hit five $4,000 royals and still lost money. One of the royals was about $4,300 on a $1 progressive at Gold Strike in Jean. He played almost continuously for 24 hours but after each $4,000 royal he moved up to $5 and $10 video poker for a period of time. He never hit a royal at $5 and $10 but only when he returned to $1 vp. Just one royal at $5 or $10 and he would have had a big profit -- instead of a loss. Had he stayed at $1 he would have had a nice win, we figure.:

Quote: redietz

When the entire 18 yo's originally came up on the other forum, my offering was that someone, presumably the house, had accidentally inserted weighted dice onto the table. My supposition, and it doesn't really matter if it was 15 or 16 or 18 yo's, the odds being so long, was that it was the only Ockham's Razor explanation.

Could such a thing happen, the house accidentally inserting rigged dice that were usually employed to guarantee results under other circumstances? I don't see why not. And I'm not saying the dice would be rigged for the house; certainly there have been occasions when the house rigs events for specific players.

I'm always sensitive to the possibility of events like this. Las Vegas has more top notch magicians than any other city in the world. Mechanics exist. Rigged dice exist. I would think it quite likely, for example, that if someone were identifiably mugging various card games on a consistent basis for high stakes, eventually he would run into a mechanic so skilled that he'd make Penn and Teller look like five-thumbed amateurs.
link to original post

I think it's highly unlikely that 18 yo's in a row would come up AND NO ONE BET IT, NOT ONCE, AND NO ONE WOULD CHECK THE DICE CLOSELY.

Doesn't one start betting it after a certain amount of times? it's not like this is some super fast game people are not noticing this type of stuff. It's craps for god sake, that's all people do is notice this type of stuff.

Just imagine the situation after roll🎲🎲 7, 🤨8,🧐9 😮, People start looking around at each other, a silent do you see what I'm seeing look on their faces. 😏🤐

10.. 😵11....🤔. 12,.....😲 13,........🤤 14............🤑🤑🤑 15...............🤑🤑🤑16.🤯🤑🤯..17 🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑 18 🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑🤑🤯🤑. 19💩💩💩

18 Yos in a row?

I believe it 100%.

I just noticed that since this is a craps thread the advertisements on the side changed to the best craps bonuses online.

Quote: odiousgambit

well, there certainly is some irony that Mr. 888 is the one who decided to start a thread that is so likely to result in multiple ejections

link to original post

Point of order: OnceDear started this thread by splitting it off from another.

I may as well as this here as it is somewhat on topic. I'm writing an article on the such topics as the fallibility of memory and free speech. Here are three examples I plan to site:

• Witnessing a total of 11 rolled 18 consecutive times in craps
• Winning 60 hands in a row in blackjack
• Witnessing 48 Player wins out of 49 hands in baccarat in the same shoe

Here are the odds of each, by the way:

• Probability of 18 totals of 11 in 18 rolls of the dice = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
• Probability of 60 winning hands in a row in blackjack, not counting ties = 1 in 107,557,145,896,478,000,000.
• Probability of streak of 48 Player wins in 49 hands of baccarat in the same shoe = 1 in 21,922,409,835,345.

Are there any good ones I'm missing? Please don't suggest Alan's son's five royals, as the claim wasn't made here and was walked back.

Quote: SOOPOO

I just wasted a bunch of minutes reading Axel/AM back and forth. As to the title of this thread…. 18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. Exactly why a poster would make such claims is really the topic for discussion.
link to original post

You wasted Time? I just read through the old two dice puzzle thread!!!!! I'm going to need years in therapy again after that doozy.

You are right, that the topic for discussion should really be WHY a poster would make some claims. But then some names would inevitably come forward and some characters would be insulted to be examined and described.

I toyed with creating a thread to discuss the psychology of posters, generally, but let's not.

It would be a BanFest like nothing ever experienced.

Quote: Wizard

I may as well as this here as it is somewhat on topic. I'm writing an article on the such topics as the fallibility of memory and free speech. Here are three examples I plan to site:

• Witnessing a total of 11 rolled 18 consecutive times in craps
• Winning 60 hands in a row in blackjack
• Witnessing 48 Player wins out of 49 hands in baccarat in the same shoe

Here are the odds of each, by the way:

• Probability of 18 totals of 11 in 18 rolls of the dice = 1 in 39,346,408,075,296,500,000,000
• Probability of 60 winning hands in a row in blackjack, not counting ties = 1 in 107,557,145,896,478,000,000.
• Probability of streak of 48 Player wins in 49 hands of baccarat in the same shoe = 1 in 21,922,409,835,345.

Are there any good ones I'm missing? Please don't suggest Alan's son's five royals, as the claim wasn't made here and was walked back.
link to original post

Wizard, You're a braver man than I, opening up such a BanFest of a topic. If it's about fallacy and free speech, I'll add the following events that did actually happen:-
OnceDear was abducted by aliens and on the mothership was greeted by Elvis and Michael Jackson. he escaped on Pegasus who flew him to safety. Described in the third person, because it was seen from out of body.

I know that's not an event you could calculate the probability of, but examine my absolute right to assert it, but no other members right to say I'm trolling, outright lying, high on something or mentally unwell.

I'm seriously trying to add to the debate. And that really did happen in 1979. I remember it like it was yesterday.

PS. It's cite, NOT site.

I have seen the strangest things.

32 reds in a row at roulette. Saw it once and I was betting so definitely counted correct. Wasn't betting high because I figured the streak would end.

Saw the following at E-roulette:

Guy places $50 on number 9. Every spin. At least twenty spins in a row he loses.

Give or take around this point the ball shoots out but you hear a loud CRACK as it hits the glass. Ball plops into number 9 slot without revolution around the wheel and the electronic dealer says no spin!

The guy cursed and because the ball had just landed in 9 he skips the very next spin. Of course, the ball once again lands in number 9.

The look on that guy's face was classic!

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: SOOPOO

I just wasted a bunch of minutes reading Axel/AM back and forth. As to the title of this thread…. 18 yo’s in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. 60 BJ wins in a row DID NOT HAPPEN. Exactly why a poster would make such claims is really the topic for discussion.
link to original post

You wasted Time? I just read through the old two dice puzzle thread!!!!! I'm going to need years in therapy again after that doozy.

You are right, that the topic for discussion should really be WHY a poster would make some claims. But then some names would inevitably come forward and some characters would be insulted to be examined and described.

I toyed with creating a thread to discuss the psychology of posters, generally, but let's not.

It would be a BanFest like nothing ever experienced.
link to original post

Extremely improbable events do happen.

Hypothetically if you witnessed 18 yo’s in a row, would you just keep it to yourself to avoid ridicule? Like the time I was abducted and probed by little green men.