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sarah.hruby
sarah.hruby
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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December 23rd, 2019 at 1:45:37 AM permalink
I'm relatively new to craps. I think about it and run wincraps files more than I actually play. I've been overseas for awhile and my brain is going crazy. I only have my mac and I can't test this (wincraps is windows only dur) . So- here's my question/theory. Are cumulative odds a thing or aren't they? For example, if the odds of winning a field bet in a single roll are 44.4% (i think?) . the odds of hitting the field at least once in 2 rolls is 60%. At least once in 3 rolls - 83%? roughly. So what's to stop someone from betting after each sequence of 2 non field rolls? Wouldn't that bet pay out 83% of the time? This seems ridiculously simple. Please tell me how I'm wrong here. Thanks! Oh, and if you have access to wincraps could you run it for me?
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
sarah.hruby
December 23rd, 2019 at 2:11:11 AM permalink
You’re wrong. Google “gambler’s fallacy.”
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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December 23rd, 2019 at 2:16:51 AM permalink
Ain't got a computer, just a recalcitrant tablet that drives me crazy.

Ain't got WinCraps.

Ain't got no idea what you are talking about.

A Field Bet at 44 % ??? Its nowhere near that high.
Now you be talkin' something 'bout Field Rolls and No-Field Rolls, so i'ze want to asks you "do the dice know the difference and remember what they've recently rolled? If so, do the dice know that you are lurking nearby and are about to make a field bet?
sarah.hruby
sarah.hruby
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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December 23rd, 2019 at 2:19:47 AM permalink
googled it. good reading. but then how do cumulative odds work? and what are they worth?
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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December 23rd, 2019 at 2:27:52 AM permalink
Quote: sarah.hruby

So what's to stop someone from betting after each sequence of 2 non field rolls? Wouldn't that bet pay out 83% of the time? simple.




2 non field rolls didn't make the 3rd roll more likely to win
those percentages are based on the long run - thousands or millions of rolls

each roll is an independent trial - 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒆 𝒉𝒂𝒗𝒆 𝒏𝒐 𝒎𝒆𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒚

each roll carries the same disadvantage - the same negative expectancy

your thought has been around forever - it even has a name - the patience or waiting system - it has zero validity


if something seems too good to be true it probably isn't true



have fun playing craps - even with a disadvantage you can sometimes win
Good Luck
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
sarah.hruby
sarah.hruby
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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December 23rd, 2019 at 2:37:21 AM permalink
'those percentages are based on the long run - thousands or millions of rolls

each roll carries the same disadvantage - the same negative expectancy

your thought has been around forever - it even has a name - the patience or waiting system - it has zero validity'

so on the one hand "those percentages" work "over thousands or millions of rolls"

but for a short period of time they don't work? that makes absolutely no sense
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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December 23rd, 2019 at 2:44:52 AM permalink
Quote: sarah.hruby



so on the one hand "those percentages" work "over thousands or millions of rolls"

but for a short period of time they don't work? that makes absolutely no sense





it makes perfect sense

imagine if it were true that 1 out of 25 people your age had cancer

the Doctor lines up 25 people to take a blood test to determine if they have cancer

the first 24 don't have cancer - you're next - do you think that means you're very likely to have cancer?

good news - you're not likely to have cancer - the same 4% chance applies to you - again, those percentages are only valid for the long run
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
sarah.hruby
sarah.hruby
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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December 23rd, 2019 at 2:51:06 AM permalink
OK, but if you lined up 75 people, and you had a chance to bet weather one of them had cancer out of all 75, I'd take that bet. (assuming 4 percent cancer rates) Especially if I could make it over and over again
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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December 23rd, 2019 at 2:58:57 AM permalink
Quote: sarah.hruby

OK, but if you lined up 75 people, and you had a chance to bet weather one of them had cancer out of all 75, I'd take that bet. (assuming 4 percent cancer rates) Especially if I could make it over and over again




yes, and if a bookie or casino priced that bet they would price it so that when you win you would get paid less than the true odds indicate


if you bet $100 and got paid back even money it would be a great bet
but it won't be priced that way

if you bet $100 and win only a very small amount when you win (the book or casino would figure it out exactly so that the bettor has a disadvantage) it would not be a good bet
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾
sarah.hruby
sarah.hruby
Joined: Dec 23, 2019
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December 23rd, 2019 at 3:02:12 AM permalink
We digressed, and you missed my point. That's ok, I take yours, and concede the likelihood that you are right. However, id like to see the wincraps results on it. It'd be easy enough to run.

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