Variation of the Iron Cross
May 17th, 2018 at 6:34:11 AM
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I have tried a variation on the Iron Cross that I would love some outside input.
On the simulator I use a $5 minimum bet as follows, after the point is established:
Place a $10 bet on the 5
Place a $12 bet on the 6
Place a $12 bet on the 8
And a $5 field bet
I let the point be made then my decision points are:
If I win three straight rolls, I take all my bets down.
If the point is made, I take down the Field bet, if necessary, then start over.
And obviously, if a seven is rolled, I lose and I start over.
Bank roll is $300, if I ever get over $100 profit, take those profits and restart the game.
On a cold run, I sometimes reduce to two straight wins.
I find this to be profitable here, what does anyone think?
On the simulator I use a $5 minimum bet as follows, after the point is established:
Place a $10 bet on the 5
Place a $12 bet on the 6
Place a $12 bet on the 8
And a $5 field bet
I let the point be made then my decision points are:
If I win three straight rolls, I take all my bets down.
If the point is made, I take down the Field bet, if necessary, then start over.
And obviously, if a seven is rolled, I lose and I start over.
Bank roll is $300, if I ever get over $100 profit, take those profits and restart the game.
On a cold run, I sometimes reduce to two straight wins.
I find this to be profitable here, what does anyone think?
May 17th, 2018 at 9:45:25 AM
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On the right track.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
May 17th, 2018 at 11:23:20 AM
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Rolls eyes*
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
May 17th, 2018 at 2:51:04 PM
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Quote: arthurdent33I have tried a variation on the Iron Cross that I would love some outside input.
I expect you will get about the same "input" as you received for your thread before your Vegas trip in January. Did you bet this Iron Cross in Vegas? Did you bet something else? Did you achieve your win goal frequently enough to pay for your trip expenses?
As you probably know, the Iron Cross works great if shooters have long rolls, but poorly if Red keeps crashing the party. You say you quit after 3 wins, which minimizes Red's opportunity to crush you. But, you miss out when shooters have a long roll. Also, it takes several small wins (as you describe) to recover from just one point-seven out, so it's easy to get way behind quickly. But, win or lose, betting the Iron Cross can sure be a lot of fun.
May 17th, 2018 at 6:10:29 PM
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We may want Red to remain a distant prospect but the simple math says otherwise. The next Red requires only two future tosses to accumulate a 31% probability of occurrence and only four future tosses to accumulate a 52% probability. The analysis of course begins anew as each toss becomes history rather than future.
Here is a suggestion: observe a very long string of tosses and note that Red occurs in bunches, just like cars on a highway and any other random phenomenon involving time. The descriptive math is too complex to discuss here. Simply try to anticipate and dodge those bunches with your Iron Cross.
Here is a suggestion: observe a very long string of tosses and note that Red occurs in bunches, just like cars on a highway and any other random phenomenon involving time. The descriptive math is too complex to discuss here. Simply try to anticipate and dodge those bunches with your Iron Cross.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
May 17th, 2018 at 6:26:08 PM
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Take your shota. Hit n run quickly. Fool the variance.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
May 17th, 2018 at 7:31:22 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfRolls eyes*
Rolls eyes back, brows down.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
May 18th, 2018 at 4:25:37 AM
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I did do this when I went to Vegas. I had the smarts to walk away after small losses and play hit and run a bunch of times. I didn't pay for the entire vacation but a large chunk of it - "too much" quality time with my significant other to spend a lot of time at the tables. And as much as I love her, she is a bit spoiled and rather than using my comp at Excal, for her first trip to Vegas since her dad took her in high school to see his friend Sammy Davis Jr perform, she wanted to stay at the Palazzo. Free went to $1000 real fast!!! BTW, we had a great time, great meals, we saw Love, we visited he ex MIL for some reason. I won net about $600 - that "system" is a slow grind. The variation I want to use is after hitting my escape amount, I want to let what is on the table ride without replacing the Field bet. I have had a bit of luck here and I plan on hitting the bubble craps here next weekend.
So you can roll your eyes if that makes you feel better but all I was asking was for an opinion.
Next sessions I will keep a log.
So you can roll your eyes if that makes you feel better but all I was asking was for an opinion.
Next sessions I will keep a log.
May 18th, 2018 at 4:29:00 AM
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pwc, when I felt the table get cold, I reduced to two wins when possible and take down my bets. It is hard seeing too many rolls for numbers - especially after a bunch of 2's and 12's show up, but you get that special smirk when you take down your bets and a 7 shows up in a roll or two.
May 18th, 2018 at 5:37:56 AM
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should somebody should step in and mention when fallacies and canards are prevalent in a certain thread? This happens with Craps and Baccarat threads in particular. We are all used to it, but on the other hand there are people who come to this site to be educated rather than to spread BS, what kind of minority that is I don't know. One thing I have become convinced about, though, is that to some degree it is up to each of us to separate out that which is accurate from that which is not.
Buzzkill of course. I'll just point out some of the dubious elements in this thread and the discerning newbie can take it from there.
Dubious or misleading claims or assumptions:
*hit and run as a viable strategy
*tables that were cold or hot will continue to be so
*clumping phenomenon of rolled numbers can be predicted
*betting scenarios being 'profitable'
Buzzkill of course. I'll just point out some of the dubious elements in this thread and the discerning newbie can take it from there.
Dubious or misleading claims or assumptions:
*hit and run as a viable strategy
*tables that were cold or hot will continue to be so
*clumping phenomenon of rolled numbers can be predicted
*betting scenarios being 'profitable'
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 18th, 2018 at 6:51:26 AM
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How on earth can 'hit n run' not be a successful strategy. You win... you leave. You stay... you give back. Very simple concept to grasp... unless you work for the casino industry and want to brainwash people to put in long amounts of time and never leave the tables, which is a losing strategy. You can stay on the craps table and play and play waiting for that long roll... but i guarantee you will go broke so quick waiting for that long roll. But everyone has their own method and style of play. I know the secret sauce.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
May 18th, 2018 at 6:55:32 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit
Buzzkill of course. I'll just point out some of the dubious elements in this thread and the discerning newbie can take it from there.
Dubious or misleading claims or assumptions:
*hit and run as a viable strategy
*tables that were cold or hot will continue to be so
*clumping phenomenon of rolled numbers can be predicted
*betting scenarios being 'profitable'
So leaving a table after being in the black is not a good strategy then....
I do not think anyone who plays craps believes that a table will run either hot and cold forever
Was clumping even a part of this thread?
Do you having a betting scenario to play craps or are you just a buzzkill? Or am I obligated to research your 7000+ posts? Relatively new here, sorry.
May 18th, 2018 at 7:12:14 AM
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I try to think as this on a hit and run on a much smaller basis - waiting for the big kill gets you killed, so I take small victories
May 18th, 2018 at 9:02:06 AM
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like I say, just throwing an assertion out there the same as the rest of you, each person to do his own research anymore. Sorry it's a buzzkill.
I have only come up with two ways to have positive expectation with craps. One is to be over-comped with freeplay, that has happened to me in my day, a fond memory for now. And I have no control over it being offered or not.
The other way is very hard to implement, really I have failed to get it going but rarely, but it is indisputable that it is +EV if you can set it up. Yeah, you have to read all my posts to find out what it is.
I have only come up with two ways to have positive expectation with craps. One is to be over-comped with freeplay, that has happened to me in my day, a fond memory for now. And I have no control over it being offered or not.
The other way is very hard to implement, really I have failed to get it going but rarely, but it is indisputable that it is +EV if you can set it up. Yeah, you have to read all my posts to find out what it is.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 18th, 2018 at 9:41:54 AM
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Quote: odiousgambit
The other way is very hard to implement, really I have failed to get it going but rarely, but it is indisputable that it is +EV if you can set it up. Yeah, you have to read all my posts to find out what it is.
So I am to search thru 7000+ post to find a +EV system that your have failed to get going, if I can set it up? maybe just let me know what drugs you are taking so I can be like you. I prefer sherry cask single malts - that works for me.
May 18th, 2018 at 10:20:24 AM
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Quote: arthurdent33I try to think as this on a hit and run on a much smaller basis - waiting for the big kill gets you killed, so I take small victories
Art, what state or casinos do you like to play craps at?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
May 18th, 2018 at 10:27:16 AM
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Quote: arthurdent33So I am to search thru 7000+ post to find a +EV system that your have failed to get going, if I can set it up? maybe just let me know what drugs you are taking so I can be like you. I prefer sherry cask single malts - that works for me.
nonetheless it is there to be found.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
May 18th, 2018 at 11:36:48 AM
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I get to Vegas once a year - I like Mirage and downtown for gambling there.
AC once or twice a year - no clue why, it seems like there is a vacuum cleaner attached to my wallet down there. We went for a foodie thing at Borgata early winter.
We had a golf outing a few weeks ago in the Poconos and we went to Mt Airy - I used this "system" for the short time we were there (about an hour - my friends are cranky old men) and finished up $100.
I haven't hit the "new casino" near me yet - this Jake's 58 - but when I have an afternoon free I will try it.
then I go to either Parx or Sugarhouse to play poker occasionally.
Once there is sports betting in the area, I will probably concentrate on that area - Jersey is soon but I have to believe NY cannot be far behind.
AC once or twice a year - no clue why, it seems like there is a vacuum cleaner attached to my wallet down there. We went for a foodie thing at Borgata early winter.
We had a golf outing a few weeks ago in the Poconos and we went to Mt Airy - I used this "system" for the short time we were there (about an hour - my friends are cranky old men) and finished up $100.
I haven't hit the "new casino" near me yet - this Jake's 58 - but when I have an afternoon free I will try it.
then I go to either Parx or Sugarhouse to play poker occasionally.
Once there is sports betting in the area, I will probably concentrate on that area - Jersey is soon but I have to believe NY cannot be far behind.
May 18th, 2018 at 3:21:58 PM
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Well if someone had a winning system, they would be playing not posting. Most of us don’t need to inflate our post count by rolling eyes. One question for WMW: how do you insure success before you hit and run??
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
May 18th, 2018 at 3:37:05 PM
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It should be obvious as there is a small worldwide groupQuote: DeMangoOne question for WMW: how do you insure success before you hit and run??
that KNOWS every gambler with any system is
UP at some point in ANY session. (hehe)
They need to stop when up. (hehehaha)
of course, they do not say how UP is enough...
and when to stop when you know it ain't going to happen...
and when to start again.
this is funny stuff, a good laugh is always welcomed!
Hey, btw,
the OP has done this twice now... asking, maybe 3 times will be the charm!
thank you for sharing!
good luck with your fun system of play!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
May 18th, 2018 at 5:14:06 PM
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Arthurdent33, that special smirk is delicious. Taking down one's exposure is the best way to grow your rails. Doing so only one or two tosses before Red is doubly sweet.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
May 21st, 2018 at 6:29:05 AM
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Thanks for the wishes Sally. Actually, this thread is a little bit different but sorry if asking twice offended you. But if you will enjoy me asking a third time (perhaps I can change the order of the sentences to make it a bit different again), I would be happy to oblige.
June 12th, 2018 at 6:03:12 AM
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I had my first chance to actually try this at the local "casino" on their bubble craps game.
$10 minimum game - and with the machines, they pay based on the actually payouts so it was easier to place the 5, 6 & 8 at $20 and a field bet of $10. With the first few sets of rolls, I ran out of time trying to get the 6 & 8 to $18 - the machine rolls every 30 seconds and my inexperience with using a machine for craps contributed to that.
After about 45 minutes of play, I was up $215 and cashed out with taking down my bet after two wins after the point was made. When I was up $100, I cleared my bets but placed a $10 bet on both the six and eight and let that play. I would have stayed longer but I had to meet up with some friends.
The guy next to me got creamed with the crazy way he was playing and kept on feeding $20s into the machine. Looking forward to returning and trying again. Hoping it wasn't beginners (for this "system") luck!!!
$10 minimum game - and with the machines, they pay based on the actually payouts so it was easier to place the 5, 6 & 8 at $20 and a field bet of $10. With the first few sets of rolls, I ran out of time trying to get the 6 & 8 to $18 - the machine rolls every 30 seconds and my inexperience with using a machine for craps contributed to that.
After about 45 minutes of play, I was up $215 and cashed out with taking down my bet after two wins after the point was made. When I was up $100, I cleared my bets but placed a $10 bet on both the six and eight and let that play. I would have stayed longer but I had to meet up with some friends.
The guy next to me got creamed with the crazy way he was playing and kept on feeding $20s into the machine. Looking forward to returning and trying again. Hoping it wasn't beginners (for this "system") luck!!!
June 12th, 2018 at 6:37:04 AM
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Quote: arthurdent33Looking forward to returning and trying again. Hoping it wasn't beginners (for this "system") luck!!!
Hey, beginner's luck can happen. Just look at Dennis Rodman... he did pretty well as a first-time negotiator of world peace! Beginner's luck is Lady Luck's way of getting you hooked.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1.
The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
June 12th, 2018 at 6:42:20 AM
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Been hooked for years, just trying to walk away a winner
June 12th, 2018 at 7:28:04 AM
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Quote: arthurdent33Been hooked for years, just trying to walk away a winner
Trust me on this one, OK? You will never win playing casino craps unless you're cheating or sitting on the other side of the table. There are no winning strategies. Vegas was not built on winners. If you're hooked, then try to quit. If you can't quit, get help. Don't throw your hard-earned money away trying to beat the game of craps.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1.
The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
June 12th, 2018 at 7:37:42 AM
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I hope you take this in a mathematical way, not being rude or snide... but yes, it was just luck. 100%. Your system has a negative expected value. Hit and Run does NOT work because the game doesn't magically "reset" every time you come back up to it. ALL of the roles you see with bets all add up and overtime you will eventually hit a large enough sampling size that you will fall prey to the natural math of the game. There is no beating the math. You need a promotion, cheating, etc, etc, but the game of craps straight up is not something you will ever mathematically beat with a "system" such as the one you've described. Every single bet in your "system" has a house edge and a negative expectation. No mixture of all negative bets will yield a positive system.Quote: arthurdent33... Hoping it wasn't beginners (for this "system") luck!!!
You were asking for opinions on your system, and I'm simply just letting you know the math behind it. It's not even an opinion at that point, it's a mathematical certainty that once you get enough of a sampling size you will be down, 100%, mathematically guaranteed. The only question is how much...
Craps is fun. I've been known to play it rarely on occasion... just don't fool yourself in to thinking you're not playing a negative expectation game.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
June 12th, 2018 at 11:15:00 AM
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Thanks for the input Romes, I do not take it personally at all.
I have been toying with it here on the play for fun game and have been in the positive way more than the negative and decided to try it with real money on a bubble craps machine. Not really a way to make friends with the crew at a live table with so many times of taking my bets off and the place closest to me is only slots and virtual craps, BJ and baccarat.
I just took the odds I found here of average number of rolls after a point is made. If the average number of rolls per decision is 3+, and I exit after 2, doesn't that make a little bit of sense?
And I reserve the right to be stubborn AND not take critique personally as long as it doesn't get personal!
Trying to get back to give it another go. And I will gladly accept beginners luck each time I try it.
I have been toying with it here on the play for fun game and have been in the positive way more than the negative and decided to try it with real money on a bubble craps machine. Not really a way to make friends with the crew at a live table with so many times of taking my bets off and the place closest to me is only slots and virtual craps, BJ and baccarat.
I just took the odds I found here of average number of rolls after a point is made. If the average number of rolls per decision is 3+, and I exit after 2, doesn't that make a little bit of sense?
And I reserve the right to be stubborn AND not take critique personally as long as it doesn't get personal!
Trying to get back to give it another go. And I will gladly accept beginners luck each time I try it.
June 12th, 2018 at 11:16:10 AM
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And I would say try it for yourself here and see what you come up with.
