arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
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May 17th, 2018 at 6:34:11 AM permalink
I have tried a variation on the Iron Cross that I would love some outside input.

On the simulator I use a $5 minimum bet as follows, after the point is established:
Place a $10 bet on the 5
Place a $12 bet on the 6
Place a $12 bet on the 8
And a $5 field bet

I let the point be made then my decision points are:
If I win three straight rolls, I take all my bets down.
If the point is made, I take down the Field bet, if necessary, then start over.
And obviously, if a seven is rolled, I lose and I start over.

Bank roll is $300, if I ever get over $100 profit, take those profits and restart the game.

On a cold run, I sometimes reduce to two straight wins.

I find this to be profitable here, what does anyone think?
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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May 17th, 2018 at 9:45:25 AM permalink
On the right track.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 17th, 2018 at 11:23:20 AM permalink
Rolls eyes*
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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May 17th, 2018 at 2:51:04 PM permalink
Quote: arthurdent33

I have tried a variation on the Iron Cross that I would love some outside input.



I expect you will get about the same "input" as you received for your thread before your Vegas trip in January. Did you bet this Iron Cross in Vegas? Did you bet something else? Did you achieve your win goal frequently enough to pay for your trip expenses?

As you probably know, the Iron Cross works great if shooters have long rolls, but poorly if Red keeps crashing the party. You say you quit after 3 wins, which minimizes Red's opportunity to crush you. But, you miss out when shooters have a long roll. Also, it takes several small wins (as you describe) to recover from just one point-seven out, so it's easy to get way behind quickly. But, win or lose, betting the Iron Cross can sure be a lot of fun.
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
Joined: May 15, 2010
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May 17th, 2018 at 6:10:29 PM permalink
We may want Red to remain a distant prospect but the simple math says otherwise. The next Red requires only two future tosses to accumulate a 31% probability of occurrence and only four future tosses to accumulate a 52% probability. The analysis of course begins anew as each toss becomes history rather than future.

Here is a suggestion: observe a very long string of tosses and note that Red occurs in bunches, just like cars on a highway and any other random phenomenon involving time. The descriptive math is too complex to discuss here. Simply try to anticipate and dodge those bunches with your Iron Cross.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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May 17th, 2018 at 6:26:08 PM permalink
Take your shota. Hit n run quickly. Fool the variance.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
DeMango
May 17th, 2018 at 7:31:22 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Rolls eyes*



Rolls eyes back, brows down.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
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May 18th, 2018 at 4:25:37 AM permalink
I did do this when I went to Vegas. I had the smarts to walk away after small losses and play hit and run a bunch of times. I didn't pay for the entire vacation but a large chunk of it - "too much" quality time with my significant other to spend a lot of time at the tables. And as much as I love her, she is a bit spoiled and rather than using my comp at Excal, for her first trip to Vegas since her dad took her in high school to see his friend Sammy Davis Jr perform, she wanted to stay at the Palazzo. Free went to $1000 real fast!!! BTW, we had a great time, great meals, we saw Love, we visited he ex MIL for some reason. I won net about $600 - that "system" is a slow grind. The variation I want to use is after hitting my escape amount, I want to let what is on the table ride without replacing the Field bet. I have had a bit of luck here and I plan on hitting the bubble craps here next weekend.

So you can roll your eyes if that makes you feel better but all I was asking was for an opinion.

Next sessions I will keep a log.
arthurdent33
arthurdent33
Joined: Dec 5, 2017
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May 18th, 2018 at 4:29:00 AM permalink
pwc, when I felt the table get cold, I reduced to two wins when possible and take down my bets. It is hard seeing too many rolls for numbers - especially after a bunch of 2's and 12's show up, but you get that special smirk when you take down your bets and a 7 shows up in a roll or two.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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May 18th, 2018 at 5:37:56 AM permalink
should somebody should step in and mention when fallacies and canards are prevalent in a certain thread? This happens with Craps and Baccarat threads in particular. We are all used to it, but on the other hand there are people who come to this site to be educated rather than to spread BS, what kind of minority that is I don't know. One thing I have become convinced about, though, is that to some degree it is up to each of us to separate out that which is accurate from that which is not.

Buzzkill of course. I'll just point out some of the dubious elements in this thread and the discerning newbie can take it from there.

Dubious or misleading claims or assumptions:

*hit and run as a viable strategy
*tables that were cold or hot will continue to be so
*clumping phenomenon of rolled numbers can be predicted
*betting scenarios being 'profitable'
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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