Yoyomama
Yoyomama
Joined: Oct 11, 2010
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March 11th, 2018 at 4:54:31 PM permalink
I've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.

His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.

He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.

I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?

I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 11th, 2018 at 5:31:26 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

I've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.

His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.

He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.

I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?

I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!



The founder of this web site would say no. NO HEDGING (unless it involves life changing money).
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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March 11th, 2018 at 7:25:51 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama



I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?



Did you NEED to lock in that profit for some sort of life-changing need?

Otherwise you are paying the house edge on the lay bet just like any other bet.

Personally I do not understand this mindset. You made a fire bet with a 20 percent house edge (ouch) because you wanted to pay for variance. This is an understandable exchange and the basis that all negative-expectation casino games are built on.

So now you're on the precipice of realizing that very positive variance you paid so much for, and you want to pay a further fee to reduce it? Why did you make the fire bet to begin with?
Steen
Steen
Joined: Apr 7, 2014
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March 11th, 2018 at 8:16:54 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

I've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.

His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.

He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.

I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?

I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!


You can answer this question yourself using a simulator to experiment with various fire bet - lay bet amounts. I wrote a script for WinCraps which does this.


If Initializing script Then
AutoHandle Winning Bets = "Take bet and winnings" :
AutoHandle Losing Bets = "No bet" :

name cs1.Firebet as "Amount to wager on Fire bet" :
name cs2.Last2ptsLay as "Amount to lay on next to last unmade point" :
name cs3.LastPtLay as "Amount to lay on last unmade point" :

name cs13.#lays5thpoint as "Number of lays on 5th unmade point" :
name cs14.#lays6thpoint as "Number of lays on 6th unmade point" :

show message
"This script plays the Fire bet with Lay bet hedges on the last " &
"and/or next to last unmade points." :

cs1.Firebet = input("How much do you want to wager on the Fire bet?") :
cs2.Last2ptsLay = input("How much do you want to lay on the next to last unmade point?") :
cs3.LastPtLay = input("How much do you want to lay on the last unmade point?")
EndIf

If New shooter Then
bet cs1.Firebet on Fire :
cs4 = 0 :
cs5 = 0 :
cs6 = 0 :
cs8 = 0 :
cs9 = 0 :
cs10 = 0 :
cs11.numfirepoints = 0
EndIf

If A point is decided FOR any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) Then

If cs(Last Point) = 0 Then add 1 to cs11.numfirepoints EndIf
cs(Last Point) = 1

ElseIf a point is established Then

If cs11.numfirepoints = 4 Then
If cs(point) = 0 Then
bet cs2.Last2ptsLay on Lay(point) :
add 1 to cs13.#lays5thpoint
EndIf
ElseIf cs11.numfirepoints = 5 Then
If cs(point) = 0 Then
bet cs3.LastPtLay on Lay(point) :
add 1 to cs14.#lays6thpoint
EndIf
EndIf

EndIf


Just copy and paste the code onto the auto-bet screen. I recommend starting with zero bankroll, selecting "Allow negative bankroll", and running the hyper-drive.

Steen
klimate10
klimate10
Joined: Feb 6, 2012
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March 12th, 2018 at 12:58:06 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!



This is FOMO, a human weakness/fear that drives people into making bad decisions.

You want to be that guy who rolls all six numbers and not have a fire bet. It shows mental strength and discipline because you realize that you would lost way more money on the times you bet the fire and nothing hit.

I want to be the guy who plays 3CP, doesnít play the PP, and hits the SF. Iíve never hit the SF (Iíve only played like 50 hands total in my life), but I once hit trips, and the other players reactions were priceless.
DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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March 12th, 2018 at 1:56:32 AM permalink
Fire Bet blows. Play the All, Tall, Small, full pay. The best part is that you can't lay the horn numbers as a hedge.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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March 12th, 2018 at 6:28:21 AM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

I've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.

His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.

He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.

I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?

I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!



I think it would be foolish not to hedge the 5th and 6th points in fire bet. It is guaranteed money. I only hedge when guaranteed money is involved.... unless hedging stock options where I am limiting my risk exposure.

In the case of the 5th fire number... I would hedge 700 on the no 5 to guarantee myself around 500 profit no matter what the outcome of the roll is. On the 6th number I would run a similar hedge to ensure equal payout regardless of the outcome.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
wilbsmitt
wilbsmitt
Joined: Mar 16, 2015
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March 12th, 2018 at 8:17:10 AM permalink
Sodawater, that is brilliant. Best explanation for not hedging I've seen in quite a while.
boymimbo
boymimbo
Joined: Nov 12, 2009
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March 12th, 2018 at 9:40:32 AM permalink
Quote: wilbsmitt

Sodawater, that is brilliant. Best explanation for not hedging I've seen in quite a while.



It's pretty simple as it guarantees you a win when the fifth point is established. A $5 fire bet after the 5th point pays $1250 (made) or $125 (lost). By laying the 5th point you can guarantee a larger win.

The expected value with no hedge on a 5/9 with a $5 fire bet is 4/10 * 1125 = $450
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/8 with a $5 fire bet is 5/11 * 1125 = $511.36
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/10 with a $5 fire bet is 3/9 * 1125 = $375

On the 5/9 Laying $653 ($630 + $23 vig) to pay $450 gives you $450 if the point is not made and (1125 - 653) $472 if the point is made. EV at $462.20 is higher than the EV of the fire bet alone.
On the 6/8 Laying $621 ($595 + 26 vig) to pay $510 gives you $510 if the point is not made and (1125 - 621) $504 if the point is made. EV is $507.27
On the 4/10 laying $779 ($760 + $19 vig) to pay $380 gives you $380 if the point is not made and (1125 - 779) $346 is the point is made. EV is $368.67.

So hedging on the 5/9 makes sense as your EV increases and removes variance.
Hedging on the other numbers costs you $3 - $7 but removes variance.

I also don't bother with odds on the PL with a fire bet riding.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
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March 12th, 2018 at 10:09:24 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

It's pretty simple as it guarantees you a win when the fifth point is established. A $5 fire bet after the 5th point pays $1250 (made) or $125 (lost). By laying the 5th point you can guarantee a larger win.

The expected value with no hedge on a 5/9 with a $5 fire bet is 4/10 * 1125 = $450
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/8 with a $5 fire bet is 5/11 * 1125 = $511.36
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/10 with a $5 fire bet is 3/9 * 1125 = $375

On the 5/9 Laying $653 ($630 + $23 vig) to pay $450 gives you $450 if the point is not made and (1125 - 653) $472 if the point is made. EV at $462.20 is higher than the EV of the fire bet alone.
On the 6/8 Laying $621 ($595 + 26 vig) to pay $510 gives you $510 if the point is not made and (1125 - 621) $504 if the point is made. EV is $507.27
On the 4/10 laying $779 ($760 + $19 vig) to pay $380 gives you $380 if the point is not made and (1125 - 779) $346 is the point is made. EV is $368.67.

So hedging on the 5/9 makes sense as your EV increases and removes variance.
Hedging on the other numbers costs you $3 - $7 but removes variance.

I also don't bother with odds on the PL with a fire bet riding.



Thank you for that. I have only been at a table 1 time when the 6th was lit. I told this story last month. I had $1 fire. I hedged for $280. The guy next to me said I was stupid for it. I was like whatever I don't care. He also made a big deal of me not taking odds.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.

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