Fire bet question
His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.
He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.
I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?
I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!
Quote: YoyomamaI've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.
His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.
He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.
I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?
I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!
The founder of this web site would say no. NO HEDGING (unless it involves life changing money).
Quote: Yoyomama
I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?
Did you NEED to lock in that profit for some sort of life-changing need?
Otherwise you are paying the house edge on the lay bet just like any other bet.
Personally I do not understand this mindset. You made a fire bet with a 20 percent house edge (ouch) because you wanted to pay for variance. This is an understandable exchange and the basis that all negative-expectation casino games are built on.
So now you're on the precipice of realizing that very positive variance you paid so much for, and you want to pay a further fee to reduce it? Why did you make the fire bet to begin with?
Quote: YoyomamaI've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.
His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.
He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.
I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?
I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!
You can answer this question yourself using a simulator to experiment with various fire bet - lay bet amounts. I wrote a script for WinCraps which does this.
If Initializing script Then
AutoHandle Winning Bets = "Take bet and winnings" :
AutoHandle Losing Bets = "No bet" :
name cs1.Firebet as "Amount to wager on Fire bet" :
name cs2.Last2ptsLay as "Amount to lay on next to last unmade point" :
name cs3.LastPtLay as "Amount to lay on last unmade point" :
name cs13.#lays5thpoint as "Number of lays on 5th unmade point" :
name cs14.#lays6thpoint as "Number of lays on 6th unmade point" :
show message
"This script plays the Fire bet with Lay bet hedges on the last " &
"and/or next to last unmade points." :
cs1.Firebet = input("How much do you want to wager on the Fire bet?") :
cs2.Last2ptsLay = input("How much do you want to lay on the next to last unmade point?") :
cs3.LastPtLay = input("How much do you want to lay on the last unmade point?")
EndIf
If New shooter Then
bet cs1.Firebet on Fire :
cs4 = 0 :
cs5 = 0 :
cs6 = 0 :
cs8 = 0 :
cs9 = 0 :
cs10 = 0 :
cs11.numfirepoints = 0
EndIf
If A point is decided FOR any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) Then
If cs(Last Point) = 0 Then add 1 to cs11.numfirepoints EndIf
cs(Last Point) = 1
ElseIf a point is established Then
If cs11.numfirepoints = 4 Then
If cs(point) = 0 Then
bet cs2.Last2ptsLay on Lay(point) :
add 1 to cs13.#lays5thpoint
EndIf
ElseIf cs11.numfirepoints = 5 Then
If cs(point) = 0 Then
bet cs3.LastPtLay on Lay(point) :
add 1 to cs14.#lays6thpoint
EndIf
EndIf
EndIf
Just copy and paste the code onto the auto-bet screen. I recommend starting with zero bankroll, selecting "Allow negative bankroll", and running the hyper-drive.
Steen
Quote: YoyomamaI only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!
This is FOMO, a human weakness/fear that drives people into making bad decisions.
You want to be that guy who rolls all six numbers and not have a fire bet. It shows mental strength and discipline because you realize that you would lost way more money on the times you bet the fire and nothing hit.
I want to be the guy who plays 3CP, doesn’t play the PP, and hits the SF. I’ve never hit the SF (I’ve only played like 50 hands total in my life), but I once hit trips, and the other players reactions were priceless.
Quote: YoyomamaI've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.
His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.
He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.
I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?
I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!
I think it would be foolish not to hedge the 5th and 6th points in fire bet. It is guaranteed money. I only hedge when guaranteed money is involved.... unless hedging stock options where I am limiting my risk exposure.
In the case of the 5th fire number... I would hedge 700 on the no 5 to guarantee myself around 500 profit no matter what the outcome of the roll is. On the 6th number I would run a similar hedge to ensure equal payout regardless of the outcome.
Quote: wilbsmittSodawater, that is brilliant. Best explanation for not hedging I've seen in quite a while.
It's pretty simple as it guarantees you a win when the fifth point is established. A $5 fire bet after the 5th point pays $1250 (made) or $125 (lost). By laying the 5th point you can guarantee a larger win.
The expected value with no hedge on a 5/9 with a $5 fire bet is 4/10 * 1125 = $450
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/8 with a $5 fire bet is 5/11 * 1125 = $511.36
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/10 with a $5 fire bet is 3/9 * 1125 = $375
On the 5/9 Laying $653 ($630 + $23 vig) to pay $450 gives you $450 if the point is not made and (1125 - 653) $472 if the point is made. EV at $462.20 is higher than the EV of the fire bet alone.
On the 6/8 Laying $621 ($595 + 26 vig) to pay $510 gives you $510 if the point is not made and (1125 - 621) $504 if the point is made. EV is $507.27
On the 4/10 laying $779 ($760 + $19 vig) to pay $380 gives you $380 if the point is not made and (1125 - 779) $346 is the point is made. EV is $368.67.
So hedging on the 5/9 makes sense as your EV increases and removes variance.
Hedging on the other numbers costs you $3 - $7 but removes variance.
I also don't bother with odds on the PL with a fire bet riding.
Quote: boymimboIt's pretty simple as it guarantees you a win when the fifth point is established. A $5 fire bet after the 5th point pays $1250 (made) or $125 (lost). By laying the 5th point you can guarantee a larger win.
The expected value with no hedge on a 5/9 with a $5 fire bet is 4/10 * 1125 = $450
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/8 with a $5 fire bet is 5/11 * 1125 = $511.36
The expected value with no hedge on a 6/10 with a $5 fire bet is 3/9 * 1125 = $375
On the 5/9 Laying $653 ($630 + $23 vig) to pay $450 gives you $450 if the point is not made and (1125 - 653) $472 if the point is made. EV at $462.20 is higher than the EV of the fire bet alone.
On the 6/8 Laying $621 ($595 + 26 vig) to pay $510 gives you $510 if the point is not made and (1125 - 621) $504 if the point is made. EV is $507.27
On the 4/10 laying $779 ($760 + $19 vig) to pay $380 gives you $380 if the point is not made and (1125 - 779) $346 is the point is made. EV is $368.67.
So hedging on the 5/9 makes sense as your EV increases and removes variance.
Hedging on the other numbers costs you $3 - $7 but removes variance.
I also don't bother with odds on the PL with a fire bet riding.
Thank you for that. I have only been at a table 1 time when the 6th was lit. I told this story last month. I had $1 fire. I hedged for $280. The guy next to me said I was stupid for it. I was like whatever I don't care. He also made a big deal of me not taking odds.
Quote: GWAEThank you for that. I have only been at a table 1 time when the 6th was lit. I told this story last month. I had $1 fire. I hedged for $280. The guy next to me said I was stupid for it. I was like whatever I don't care. He also made a big deal of me not taking odds.
I threw a 6 point fire back in 2010 at Casino Niagara. Paid for a trip to Maui. I didn't hedge the sixth point. Dealers got a 1K tip (put a $1 on for them). Also took all of my other bets down. I couldn't hedge the 6th point anyway because I had lost most of my chips for hedging the 5th point.
I feel like my math is wrong somewhere. I would expect the Vig to bring down the EV. My math IS wrong. It's because when you bet and "win" you lose the VIG.
That means that if you bet $500 to win $250 you pay the VIG of $13 and lose that VIG meaning that you only win $237 if the point does not hit.
This makes the EV less by the vig * the odds.
So for 5/9 you only get $427 if the point is not made and $472 if the point is made which sets the EV at $445 (less than $450).
You pay vig for losing variance.
Quote: klimate10This is FOMO, a human weakness/fear that drives people into making bad decisions.
You want to be that guy who rolls all six numbers and not have a fire bet.
NO!! I DON'T want to be that guy! I only bet the fire bet when I roll.
I am a pass line full odds and come bet with full odds player. That's pretty much all I bet.
omgQuote: boymimboI feel like my math is wrong somewhere. I would expect the Vig to bring down the EV. My math IS wrong. It's because when you bet and "win" you lose the VIG.
bottom line is ALL craps players want to winQuote: boymimbo<snip>
You pay vig for losing variance.
when they FEEL like they can win by betting a certain way, that makes them FEEL much better about winning or losing
I mean,
show me a craps player that likes to lose and I show you
a special quarter I found in my change purse.
It is all about having fun while winning!
fire bet is on it's way out
not many places have it as it used to be
just my observation
I feel
thank you for sharing
Sally
Quote: YoyomamaI've shot craps for 10 years now and this is the 1st time I've seen this bet. Shooter has made four fire bet points and will get at least 25 X's his fire bet of $5. Rolls a 5 for is 5th number and lays $180 on the 5.
His thinking is that he already has a $125 and lays the 5 to increase his winnings. If he 7's out he gets a $120 for his $180, plus his $125, if he makes the 5 he's going to get $1250 less the $180. Or $5000 If he makes the 6th fire point. I my guessing if he would have gotten to the 6th point he might have layed that also.
He 7's out on the 5 so he ends up winning $245.
I rolled 4 points the day before the with a $5 fire bet. Do you think I should have laid the 5th point?
I only bet the fire bet when I roll. Don't wanna be that guy that rolls 6 numbers and didn't have a fire bet!
People who choose to hedge a fire bet are just insecure about themselves.
Try this instead of hedging:
*when the 4th point is rolled you're a guaranteed winner of 125.00
Invest up to 125 on some numbers in the meantime.
*when the 5th point is established you know you're about to win 1250
Invest up to 125 on some numbers in the meantime.
*when the 5th point is rolled you're a guaranteed winner of 1250.00
Invest up to 1250 + 125 on some numbers in the meantime.
*when the 6th point is established you know you're about to win 5000
Invest up to 1250 +125 on some numbers in the meantime.
*when the 6th point is rolled you're a guaranteed winner of 5000.00
Invest up to 5000 + 1250 + 125 on some numbers in the meantime until seven out.
Don't hedge
Quote: SOOPOOThe founder of this web site would say no. NO HEDGING (unless it involves life changing money).
You're absolutely right.
Quote: mustangsallyI mean,
show me a craps player that likes to lose and I show you
a special quarter I found in my change purse.
I'm interested in the quarter.
Quote: WizardI'm interested in the quarter.
Me too. I’d pay two bits.
Quote: WizardI'm interested in the quarter.
Me too. I’d pay two bits.
