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Mission146
Mission146
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October 30th, 2017 at 10:13:55 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

NO. It is not.
Oh sure if you look ONLY at the math of "amount wagered" times "house edge" you get the same results. That much is indeed true.

The changed factors are things such as: sobriety, exhaustion, mistakes, distractions, memory, judgment. One marathon session or a few "mini sessions" are mathematically equivalent but people gamble for a variety of reasons, not just the math involved. Most don't even know the math that is involved. That woman I encountered eons ago at The Venetian was astounded to learn it was 7:00am. She had gambled the whole night of her arrival and had absolutely no idea of it. Did she win or lose? I don't know, but I'm sure she was having fun prior to deciding to go to sleep "for the night".



I'll grant that point, but I'm speaking specifically to the methods of play that WMW is advocating in favor of. I'm not speaking in terms of external factors, just in terms of fixed odds bets on the table, which we're agreeing on. If you go, "On tilt," or whatever and start making greater bet amounts, then that increases the expected loss. If you start making worse bets, then that increases the expected loss. My point is that Placing 6 twenty times at fifty different tables for $6 (or whatever) is the same as Placing 6 for $6 1,000 times at one table...even though the latter is not really feasible.

Fact is, if WMW trust the PRNG, then he would not even need to play his method in a casino. It would cost less (gas/time) and be more convenient just to do it online. That's not going to happen, though, because the method does not work long term. No method does.

Quote:

Circumstances like that are different than short sober sessions of maximum alertness. There is no sense of desperation if you are "chipping" (a term from heroin use). It its a marathon session, your feet are sore, you are "well lubricated", you are aware of your bankroll situation, you are probably too drunk to be much fun to be around.



Agreed, I'm just talking about the betting options on the table.

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But ofcourse to a mathematician the formula only includes WagerAmount x HouseEdge.= minusSomething.

The guy who is chipping can take a break and go spend some time in his room with his wife.
The marathoner who finally goes up to his room may find his wife has already checked out.
Mathematicians don't factor that into their equations.



The House Edge is inviolate. I grant that there are many variables from one player to another, many players are individuals who abstain from drinking completely regardless of how long they are playing. It is better to play whilst alert for a wide variety of reasons that go above and beyond the betting options on the table. You can't factor those into a mathematical equation, though.

Either way, the fundamental rule will always be the same: Don't walk to a Craps Table expecting to win, because if you are, then your prior is already out of whack with reality.
Vultures can't be choosers.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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October 30th, 2017 at 10:50:00 AM permalink
There are psychological reasons to believe that your variance will net out after awhile and that you can come close to expected value.

For example, I will ride VP until a big hand comes out and then quit (4D on a DW, a good 4 of a K on a DDB machine, etc). But there are times when the hand never comes before I run out of bankroll, or that to catch up on bankroll requires impossible luck (a royal). That's when I have to learn to get up and walk. I'm good at getting up and walking when the winner hits, but not so good on riding the bad luck.

On table games with bonus bets, I might ride out Pai Gow until I see a SF or higher (I bet Fortune) and then leave. But once again that might not happen in a session.

On craps, I would ride out the losses until a good stretch of wins, but sometimes that just never happens on a cold, desolate night.

Because of my play style, I win most of the time, but when I lose, it is complete (aka all of my planned bankroll, and then some), and it happens enough to where the loss outweighs all of the smaller wins.

For craps, if you are betting PL or place or Don'ts and don't come, there will be streaks where you cannot win, where the 10 in a row of Point dot dot sevens occur and you just have to walk. There are betters who just bet "how they feel" and find that the table is so choppy that you can't win then.

But good bankroll management and planned stop/win/loss goals are great ways to gamble reasonably well, to stay in the casinos, and get enjoyment from gambling.
RFB and free-plays help as well.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 30th, 2017 at 11:06:34 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

But good bankroll management and planned stop/win/loss goals are great ways to gamble reasonably well, to stay in the casinos, and get enjoyment from gambling. RFB and free-plays help as well.

I can't disagree with that. I've played lots of -EV blackjack and a little very -EV roulette. Sometimes sober and 'in control' and sometimes tired and intoxicated. I've woken up some mornings after a non-sober session and stared silly losses or silly profits in the face. I'd definitely suggest the more sober and 'managed' play is less risky. The discipline to bet small, win small or lose small beats the recklessness of going on tilt and betting stupid. Better to lose x% of a small number than x% of a large number. It's still x%
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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October 31st, 2017 at 4:40:43 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

There must be greater differences than I thought between US English and English. I implied no such thing.

You have had good luck. Pure and simple. There are metaphorical bullets matey. You can't make it a winning game by spinning the chamber before each pull of the trigger.



Perhaps it is not the barrier between or English, mate, but rather the lack in you ability to grasp the sarcasm in my statement. I did not actually think you were giving me accolades, mate....lol I know you were insulting me, but that is all good. I have thick skin. So , when I return the favor, please have thick skin as well and don't suspend me.

And.... METAPHORICALLY speaking, again, if there are no bullets in the chamber, which you stated, then there is no way of blowing my brains away... METAPHORICALLY.

Now back to the topic at hand... you can play craps any way you like, and I wish you the best... but, maintain, if you stick around on the table, you will lose. Playing the probabilities, discipline, management, realistic expectation will put one in a greater position to be a winner. And ask 100 dealers if they believe there are rhythm and flows to the game, I bet 90% would agree.

See you at the Cage cashing winnings! Good luck.... MATE!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
boymimbo
boymimbo
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October 31st, 2017 at 9:43:35 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Now back to the topic at hand... you can play craps any way you like, and I wish you the best... but, maintain, if you stick around on the table, you will lose. Playing the probabilities, discipline, management, realistic expectation will put one in a greater position to be a winner. And ask 100 dealers if they believe there are rhythm and flows to the game, I bet 90% would agree.



Of course there are rhythms and flows to the game. That's the beauty of the stupid game. Those streaks in any game where the "improbable" happen are just streaks of bad luck and good luck hitting you and are expected in the game. For me, craps is the quintessential game where luck (and bad luck) streaks emerge that you can attribute to a number of outside influences, including the dice, the shooter, the wife of the shooter, the drink servers, the dealers, the air conditioning, the humidity, the chips, gravity, magnets, bouncy tables, the back wall, the don't players and anything else not mentioned here.

Just talking about it makes me want to get into the car and drive to Reno. Sniff ;}

Edit: Thanks BBB for the edit.
Last edited by: boymimbo on Oct 31, 2017
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 31st, 2017 at 10:33:04 AM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

Sniff ;}


BM, would you please fix that mis-attributed quote?
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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October 31st, 2017 at 12:53:54 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

BM, would you please fix that mis-attributed quote?



Edited. See above.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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October 31st, 2017 at 1:03:07 PM permalink
Just another bullet escaping day I suppose. I walked up to the craps table and noticed many angry players... cussing and yelling. I knew there was nothing good that was going to come out of that table. So, I just hung around and waited for the table to empty out. As I was waiting, I saw 7 out after 7 out. I took a walk around, grabbed a bite to eat. Talked to a couple of my favorite waitresses. Then proceeded back to the craps table. There were only 5 people there at this point. The dealers told me that once a few of the angry guys left the table, the numbers started to flow. I decided to jump in when the dice went to a seemingly innocent woman with no apparent dark cloud above head. I quickly went 300 per number ( which is 1830 across the board.. 4 n 10 are bought). First number was a 10. Second number was a 5. Next roll , the dice went off the table. So, I went off and took my bets down. Next roll was a 7 out.
I walked away a winner, while others stayed and lost. Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. But knowing who, what, when, where, why, and how cant be taught.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
boymimbo
boymimbo
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October 31st, 2017 at 1:19:03 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

. First number was a 10. Second number was a 5. Next roll , the dice went off the table. So, I went off and took my bets down. Next roll was a 7 out.
I walked away a winner, while others stayed and lost. Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. But knowing who, what, when, where, why, and how cant be taught.



Anecdotes like these drive me crazy.

First number a 10: Odds 1 in 12.
Second number a 5: Odds 1 in 9.
Next roll a 7 out: Odds 1 in 6.

There are plenty of times when dice go off the table and the next roll is actually a different number than 7.

Luck? Yes. Skill? No.

There is no skill in craps. Would you have even told the story if the next number was not a seven? How many times have you not told this story when the next number after dice leave the table is not a seven? I would bet probably 5 out of 6 times. Confirmation bias at its best. Believe what you want to believe.

Next time, if you are so sure, why not throw that $300 + the amount you just won on any seven?
Tell us how you do.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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October 31st, 2017 at 1:26:20 PM permalink
Haven't we gone through this same nonsense with the baccarat and roulette players?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!

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