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WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
Joined: May 20, 2011
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October 29th, 2017 at 2:06:03 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I would love to know how any of those things are relevant to the topic at hand. That said, assuming it is somehow relevant:

A.) Couple months ago.

B.) Pass/2x Odds, Place 6/8, never press.

C.) Won a little, but was not expected to.

I'm not arguing whether or not your method wins frequently, I am arguing that no method of play, particularly not the one that you describe, yields a positive expectation.

EDIT: In the rare event I play, I buy in for $40 or $50 at an empty table, and either lose or double it. Sometimes I do neither, I'll often not double it or lose all because I typically quit after my first hand with a net loss.



Thank you for your reply. I would never play a game where I didn't expect to win. That is just giving money away freely. I guess we all have different perspectives of how to spend money. The entertainment value has its value I suppose for many. I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.

How are those questions relevant? Apparently, I wanted to hear how you play the game you are preaching on. Im not saying you are right or wrong, I just wanted to know if you win. Entertainment value is not a bad strategy.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 29th, 2017 at 2:27:01 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.

Your strategy is little more than Russian Roulette, So far, you encountered more than your share of empty chambers. Good for you.
Get the executors to your estate to post here on your behalf when you get to hear that bang.

Hit and run tactics, win goals, sessions. It's all loblocks.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1370
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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October 29th, 2017 at 2:51:57 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Your strategy is little more than Russian Roulette, So far, you encountered more than your share of empty chambers. Good for you.
Get the executors to your estate to post here on your behalf when you get to hear that bang.

Hit and run tactics, win goals, sessions. It's all loblocks.

https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/3/#post1370




You state that I have had more than my share of empty chambers, which you inadvertently are implying that I have no chance of losing since there are no bullets in the chamber. I appreciate you accolade , but I would say that there is at least one bullet in my chamber... but the slots are in the thousands. So far so good! Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. All that matters to me is the W at the end of the day. Good luck with your game of choice and however you play. I wish everyone to win.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 29th, 2017 at 10:02:16 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

You state that I have had more than my share of empty chambers, which you inadvertently are implying that I have no chance of losing since there are no bullets in the chamber. I appreciate you accolade , but I would say that there is at least one bullet in my chamber... but the slots are in the thousands. So far so good! Luck? Perhaps. Skill? Perhaps. All that matters to me is the W at the end of the day. Good luck with your game of choice and however you play. I wish everyone to win.

There must be greater differences than I thought between US English and English. I implied no such thing.

You have had good luck. Pure and simple. There are metaphorical bullets matey. You can't make it a winning game by spinning the chamber before each pull of the trigger.

Did you not read my blog post? It's absolutely dead easy to have high probability of a achieving a modest percentage win goal. It becomes progressively more likely that you give it all back as you stack up the sessions.

I don't know what session bankroll you walk in with or what session target dollar amount you have, but your hit and run strategy is abject nonsense. I won't say 'loblocks' again, because it seems you don't do anagrams.

Win targets and hit and run strategies only succeed to the extent that they make you play less and tend to lose less dollars. They may make playing more fun. They add nothing to your probability of making meaningful gains. E.g. the probability of doubling your starting bankroll over a lifetime sits at just under 50% and you can't change that. It doesn't mean that you won't do so or that you haven't done so.

Anyhow, You've baited me enough with your daft strategy. Others have tried to coax you to see the truth, I'm sure even more will take your bait. Enjoy your game. I'm sure the casino loves you and would love that you are trying to draw in more suckers for them.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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October 30th, 2017 at 2:49:18 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I won't say 'loblocks' again, because it seems you don't do anagrams.

actually that is where trans-Atlantic language differences kicked in .... Americans react to the word Bollocks as a quaint thing Brits say that 'probably means Ox Dung'. Note which cuss word I feel free to spell out and which one I changed a bit to remain US-polite. A small percent here would know what it means. BTW is 'bloody' a word still beyond the pale to use politely in the UK?

Quote:

I'm sure even more will take your bait.

Me this time. I'd say the reality in this matter ranks like this:

*the claim is all Bollocks and Ox Dung....................0% chance since we all know that is impossible and, besides, it is so bloody impolite to say so

*the man keeps no records and relies on foggy memory; thus doesnt know if overall he is up, down, or about even, but has been lucky at least not to have been taken to the cleaners.......................50% chance

*goes by the records generated by the casino on his player card, which shows him 'way up'. That would be me too btw....................................................................................25% chance

*selective memory problems have him overstating how much he has actually played, thus the plausibility of being up instead of down is more common .....................20% chance

*just has had the best positive variance possible, reserved for the 1-99.999% , and is accurately stating his results.....................................................................................5%

*his betting system of hit and run actually works, and all his detractors here and the info at wizardofodds.com on the matter is all wet.........................................................0% also
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Oct 30, 2017
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 30th, 2017 at 4:28:33 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgamb

Americans react to the word Bollocks as a quaint thing Brits say that 'probably means Ox Dung'.

Ok. Linguistics first... I used the anagram 'loblocks' to obfuscate the expletive 'b0!!0cks' which literally means testicles. In the UK we are probably more likely to say 'That's a load of bo!!0ck5’ than we are to use the expression 'bull ***t'.
Bloody is a very mild expletive here, Usage such as 'don't be bloody stupid' or as the mild exasperation 'bloody hell'. Not exactly in common polite use, but would not be out of place at nan's bingo club.

Apologies to all if my use of obfuscated expletives went too far.

Back to WMW's posts. . .
His problem might be that he has no defined bankroll, just the few hundred or thousand that he has on him for any session. He may have conveniently forgotten the odd ATM visit. With selective memory or selective reporting he may have a gut feeling that he is up overall. He may even be right. After all, a one in ten probability is quite credible.
In an earlier post he mentioned his hit and run goal was 33% session profit. By OnceDear's rule of thumb, his probability of success is approximately 75%. So maybe WMW believes winning 3 out of 4 sessions is consistently winning, then I'll concede that. Shame about the other session, where he busts out.
I'd say there is a 50:50 chance that he has a bankroll which is above some baseline.
Regardless of that, we need to guess whether he believes the dangerous nonsense that he espouses or whether his posts are mischievous trolling. He did start the thread and others like it, so make your own assessment. It would be insulting for me to call him the T word, so I won't.
I would call the hit and run way of gambling 'a load of b0!!0cks' but with one amusing caveat... this weekend I decided that I might like a £70 treat today. So I set a win goal of turning £50 into £120 (or belay the treat if I went bust). I then went online and took my £50 deposit up to £121 and then onward to £150. It was mathematically stupid but added amusement to the treat.
You see, I don't discount amusement value with such silliness. But to espouse the system as 'the only way to consistently win... 'What a load of ....'
Last edited by: OnceDear on Oct 30, 2017
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
sabre
sabre 
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October 30th, 2017 at 8:04:46 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.



Playing a negative expectation game and saying you play strictly to win is kind of like drinking used toilet water and saying you do it strictly to improve your health.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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October 30th, 2017 at 8:32:19 AM permalink
Quote: sabre

Playing a negative expectation game and saying you play strictly to win is kind of like drinking used toilet water and saying you do it strictly to improve your health.

He only takes sips, Little and often. Also, it keeps him hydrated which is another essential.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Mission146
Mission146
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October 30th, 2017 at 8:44:47 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Thank you for your reply. I would never play a game where I didn't expect to win. That is just giving money away freely. I guess we all have different perspectives of how to spend money. The entertainment value has its value I suppose for many. I dont play for entertainment. I play strictly to win.

How are those questions relevant? Apparently, I wanted to hear how you play the game you are preaching on. Im not saying you are right or wrong, I just wanted to know if you win. Entertainment value is not a bad strategy.



I suppose you made them relevant.

My point is that my, "Style," of play does not greatly differ from your own, with the main difference being whether or not each person believes himself to have a positive expectation. I know that I don't. Ironically, my expectation grows more negative as I am winning simply because I am making more bets in a winning session. Place 6/8's are winning (resolved) and I'm leaving them up, that's another bet to resolve (I look at the House Edge as per resolution, rather than per roll, because I have no intention of taking the bets down).

Anyway, I'm not really paying a whole lot for the entertainment. If you look at a $5 minimum table, it would take a really good hand(s) to run me up into even so much as -$1.00 EV. Most of the time my -EV is well under that as I will have a losing hand before then and quit. In actual dollars and cents, I might lose as much as $27 on a, "Bad hand," (Point 4/5/9/10, 2x Odds, Place 6/8 $6 each, seven-out) but my actual $-EV is extremely low; barely more than twenty-five cents.

I'm also not preaching about anything, Craps is a fixed odds game, every bet on the table is a fixed odds bet. You could look at overall expectation, taking into account mail, points, potential for dealer mistakes...etc...but aside from stuff like that, it's a fixed odds game. Fixed odds games, one way or another, are either fundamentally positive (100%+ VP) or negative (Craps) and cannot be mathematically beaten by way of anything other than a mechanism external to the game itself as the game is meant to be played and according to the rules.

That's really the only difference between us. I don't dispute that with, "Hit & Run," whatever that specifically means to you, that you have a high probability of a winning session. Of course you do. The guy with a million dollars running a seventeen or an eighteen step Martingale (starting at $5) and quitting has a very high probability of winning, too, but that doesn't make it a smart or mathematically sound thing to do. He eventually loses.

The thing to understand is that twenty rolls at fifty different tables/times is the same thing as 1,000 rolls at one table. It literally doesn't matter. With enough time, everyone playing your style would regress to the mean and the mean, in this case, is losing some amount of money. Hit & Run doesn't do anything except delay the inevitable, but fortunately, you may not play enough into the, "Long run," to absolutely guarantee a net lifetime losing result.

Anyway, you look at the players who stay at the table, "Forever," and who have, in your opinion, no chance of winning as a result. Unfortunately, your method of play is no different, you're still staying at the table for the same, "Forever," you're just doing it at different tables.
Vultures can't be choosers.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 30th, 2017 at 9:28:08 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The thing to understand is that twenty rolls at fifty different tables/times is the same thing as 1,000 rolls at one table. It literally doesn't matter.

NO. It is not.
Oh sure if you look ONLY at the math of "amount wagered" times "house edge" you get the same results. That much is indeed true.

The changed factors are things such as: sobriety, exhaustion, mistakes, distractions, memory, judgment. One marathon session or a few "mini sessions" are mathematically equivalent but people gamble for a variety of reasons, not just the math involved. Most don't even know the math that is involved. That woman I encountered eons ago at The Venetian was astounded to learn it was 7:00am. She had gambled the whole night of her arrival and had absolutely no idea of it. Did she win or lose? I don't know, but I'm sure she was having fun prior to deciding to go to sleep "for the night".

Circumstances like that are different than short sober sessions of maximum alertness. There is no sense of desperation if you are "chipping" (a term from heroin use). It its a marathon session, your feet are sore, you are "well lubricated", you are aware of your bankroll situation, you are probably too drunk to be much fun to be around.

But ofcourse to a mathematician the formula only includes WagerAmount x HouseEdge.= minusSomething.

The guy who is chipping can take a break and go spend some time in his room with his wife.
The marathoner who finally goes up to his room may find his wife has already checked out.
Mathematicians don't factor that into their equations.

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