tfooteau
tfooteau
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June 25th, 2017 at 5:34:05 PM permalink
This community is an outstanding source for new craps players, thank you. I have a question for a strategy based around the 8.5 shooter rolls that each player gets on average before "7ing out". I know hedging your bets is foolish, I'm wondering if this qualifies as a hedge. Passing up the pass line with odds is as well. So, there's a good chance this is whole thing is foolish but golly I just can't help myself I want the expert feedback. Here goes:

Roll 1: Come out roll, Place the 6 & 8 only (24$) and keep them working.
Roll 2 - 6: Wait, hope for 6s and 8s
Roll 7: Shooter is close to average number of rolls, transfer your 6 & 8 to a (48$) Lay 4 (or 10) and wait for the inevitable

My hope was to maximize early likelihood of 6/8 while minimizing the potential of losing a Lay bet. I'm wondering if anyone has had any luck with a strategy like this turning to the dark side mid-shooter. I know the requirement of betting Don't Pass before come out keeps most people from doing things like this. Thanks, y'all are great.
SanchoPanza
SanchoPanza
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June 25th, 2017 at 8:40:23 PM permalink
Actually, you can make lay bets at any time without any "requirement" for another bet.
RS
RS
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June 25th, 2017 at 11:58:55 PM permalink
The odds don't change the further into a shooter's roll it is.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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SanchoPanza
June 26th, 2017 at 5:38:13 AM permalink
Serious Answer: as long as the past doesn't matter and the future is random, it cannot matter when you make Craps bets. It is an illusion, a fallacy, [that I have to shake off too] that a shooter resolving a point is creating a sequence of rolls that is making the 7-out more imminent as he keeps rolling. The past in fact does not matter in Craps no matter the situation.

Frivolous Answer: the dice hate side-switchers. Change bets as you please [you won't find advantage] but never switch sides in a session, the dice will go after you bigtime. This frivolous part here I have internalized from having bad luck with it and I stand by it except when asked to prove it!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DeMango
DeMango
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June 26th, 2017 at 6:27:20 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

The past in fact does not matter in Craps no matter the situation.



So the laws of physics are suspended for this game?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
RS
RS
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June 27th, 2017 at 3:01:08 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

So the laws of physics are suspended for this game?


?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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DeMango
June 27th, 2017 at 3:01:12 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

So the laws of physics are suspended for this game?

Most of us post what we have to say with the expectation that everyone will understand that we are assuming effective dice control is not being employed.

At least I am assuming you don't question the difference between a deck of cards that can change composition and a pair of dice that have no memory.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
alphastorm
alphastorm
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DeMango
July 25th, 2017 at 4:37:20 AM permalink
He's clearly a dice controller who can also bend the laws of physics.
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