WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 4:21:20 PM permalink
Everyone has a system and everyone has a preferred style of play.... but who here consistently wins in craps? If there is anyone here who does, it would be great to hear your strategy.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Boz
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December 27th, 2016 at 4:29:21 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Everyone has a system and everyone has a preferred style of play.... but who here consistently wins in craps? If there is anyone here who does, it would be great to hear your strategy.



I don't think Frank Scoblete posts here much anymore but it can't hurt to message him. He is the worlds foremost Craps expert.
RS
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December 27th, 2016 at 4:34:25 PM permalink
I always win at craps usually.
charlestfuller
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December 27th, 2016 at 4:59:29 PM permalink
I've taken down enough data to show a pretty good track record over the past 6 months. Leave with more than I came with about 75% of the time.
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 5:25:04 PM permalink
Hey Charles, That is great! Where do you normally play? What strategy do you use?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
GWAE
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December 27th, 2016 at 5:32:20 PM permalink
Quote: RS

I always win at craps usually.



I sometimes always win too.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
GWAE
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December 27th, 2016 at 5:34:57 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Everyone has a system and everyone has a preferred style of play.... but who here consistently wins in craps? If there is anyone here who does, it would be great to hear your strategy.



Does anyone ever win at craps? If u play a 2 hour session I bet you see no more than 2 players actually cash out with a profit.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 5:41:27 PM permalink
Agree GWAE.... Thats why you have to hit and run.. Its the only way!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 6:49:28 PM permalink
Discipline, along with a deep knowledge and strategy of the game, shadowed by realistic expectations, can bring consistent winnings.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Calder
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December 27th, 2016 at 6:52:16 PM permalink
What constitutes a "deep knowledge" of craps?
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 7:00:14 PM permalink
If you play long enough (meaning years of playing, not long sessions) and often enough... then you will have a deep understanding of the game.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
Calder
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December 27th, 2016 at 7:08:25 PM permalink
I've heard this before, and I'm truly curious.

There's knowing the odds & proper payouts, understanding the HA, respecting table etiquette, and....what's left?
charlestfuller
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December 27th, 2016 at 7:17:21 PM permalink
I primarily play the field (making sure the 12 pays triple), but also don't pass sometimes with odds. Increase your bets a little after a loss, but bring it back down after consecutive losses. Minimize losses by having a threshold that once your bankroll hits that point, you leave regardless since it's going to be very difficult to bring it back to even at that point. Bets are awfully close to 50/50, but given a small sample size, you can be up or down pretty quick sometimes. Some sessions will be brief.
SanchoPanza
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December 27th, 2016 at 7:17:22 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

who here consistently wins in craps?

Just what does "consistently" include? It could mean coming out ahead more than half the sessions. It could mean walking away after reaching a win goal. It could mean lots of little wins yet losing that advantage to a major loss. It could mean any one of dozens of things.
FleaStiff
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December 27th, 2016 at 7:29:01 PM permalink
Consistent cras winners are fishermen and poker players.

You think those free drinks and Tray Lizards don't cost money?

Remember Babs signature line: If the house lost every time, they would not spread the game.

The casino wins consistently, no one else does.
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 7:50:38 PM permalink
Quote: Calder

I've heard this before, and I'm truly curious.

There's knowing the odds & proper payouts, understanding the HA, respecting table etiquette, and....what's left?



I think we just all need to meet up sometime and play craps together. Some things just need to be seen live. I will be in Vegas during march madness. I am also in AC and Foxwoods often.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
billryan
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December 27th, 2016 at 7:59:39 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Consistent cras winners are fishermen and poker players.

You think those free drinks and Tray Lizards don't cost money?

Remember Babs signature line: If the house lost every time, they would not spread the game.

The casino wins consistently, no one else does.



Keep telling yourself that.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
WatchMeWin
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:00:28 PM permalink
Quote: SanchoPanza

Just what does "consistently" include? It could mean coming out ahead more than half the sessions. It could mean walking away after reaching a win goal. It could mean lots of little wins yet losing that advantage to a major loss. It could mean any one of dozens of things.



When I say win 'consistently', that means walking out of the casino with more than you walked in with in monetary terms. I typically look for a modest 33% on my money. I dont get greedy and I dont stay long. Losses do occur at times , but not so significant that it wipes away prior gains.

Expectations and discipline are so important. The casinos are in business not only because they have the house edge on all games, but also because most people do not walk away when they are ahead. Most people are looking to make 500% on their investment. Greed kills and pigs get slaughtered.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
djatc
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bobbartopZcore13odiousgambitAxelWolfRSEnvyBonus
December 27th, 2016 at 8:09:40 PM permalink
It's like whack a mole in here. One system player leaves, another takes his place
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Calder
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:35:15 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Some things just need to be seen live.



Well, as a midwesterner who makes just one trip to Las Vegas per year (in February), a meet up is unlikely, though thank you for the invitation.

It seems I'm doomed to flounder in my shallow understanding.
MrV
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:39:52 PM permalink
I keep records of my gambling wins and losses, every casino, every time.

My craps play hasn't been too profitable of late, but WHOA, my slots play has me slightly ahead over the past couple of years.

It's just luck, aka variance.

None of us who play negative expectation casino games are in fact the Golden Child (possible AP exception, but to them it ain't gambling or a game, it's just a job: ugh).

FWIW, I agree that discipline and knowledge of the game are helpful, especially over time.
"What, me worry?"
Calder
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:43:26 PM permalink
Ah, V, but is it Deep Knowledge?
SanchoPanza
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December 27th, 2016 at 8:47:55 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Most people are looking to make 500% on their investment. Greed kills and pigs get slaughtered.

You have to wonder, especially for a 49.3-49.3 game like craps, why in the world people would even fantasize about reaping 500%. Fire bet, anyone?
But the variance does occur with frightening regularity both up and down. One big key, as you pointed out, is leaving the table at that certain point when you're ahead and avoiding the next swing down. All the while, not looking back.
monet0412
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December 27th, 2016 at 9:37:31 PM permalink
I have a friend who has played dice for most of his life. I seen him run up two big scores. The first was about 150k which he lost in about a month afterwards. Five years later he ran up a half a million after an odd session where he bought in for 3k and ran it up to 75k then dumped it to zero... Next he went to the apartment and grabbed his case 10k and ran it up to just under half a million which took about 12-14 hours of inebriated play. It seems that once you start playing with those 5000 dollar white chips it is hard to go back to red and green checks! Needless to say about 10 weeks later he was busted and I mean flat out busted! It was fun to watch him move from black checks to betting 2k flat with 10k and 20k behind in several spots! Now it seems that he is on an endless journey to repeat the past :(

If you want to win at dice you either get on a crew that is cheating or you go around and find weak dealers who like to Over Pay.

The other way to win at dice is to just not play!
MrV
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December 27th, 2016 at 10:33:59 PM permalink
Or own a casino.

Ah, what fools these mortals be!
"What, me worry?"
Zcore13
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December 28th, 2016 at 4:16:21 AM permalink
WatchMeWin,

Make sure you are well rested. It increases your chance to win by about 0.32%

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
FleaStiff
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December 28th, 2016 at 5:04:29 AM permalink
I don't know about this 0.32 percent precision, but I try to cram as much gambling into a trip as possible so well rested and entirely sober are not states likely to be encountered in festive Vegas. And not encouraged by the casino though sometimes encouraged by the craps crew.
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 28th, 2016 at 5:25:37 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

WatchMeWin,

Make sure you are well rested. It increases your chance to win by about 0.32%

ZCore13



I do not drink and always stay rested. An inebriated and tired mind certainly affect play.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
SOOPOO
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December 28th, 2016 at 6:28:07 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Everyone has a system and everyone has a preferred style of play.... but who here consistently wins in craps? If there is anyone here who does, it would be great to hear your strategy.



The nice forum members have been politely beating around the bush. No one here believes you consistently win at craps. You can say it 100 times all in different ways, but no one will believe you. Unless you find an overpaying dealer, comps that exceed expected negative EV, or some other cheating mechanism, you will not consistently win at craps.

I play a negative EV game- Pai Gow Poker. Yesterday it was definitely positive EV, the dealer was pathetic and couldn't see a straight if you counted it out for him. He freely admitted he sucked at the game and doesn't understand why they would assign him to it! I had bad luck (negative variance) and still ended up $11. My buddy had average luck and ended up $200. I don't play craps enough to know if there are enough similar situations to make it + EV, but I would guess that is very rare.
WatchMeWin
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December 28th, 2016 at 6:37:37 AM permalink
I do. It doesnt matter if you believe it or not. My pocket is happy. I picked up another 500 last night... how did you do?

Where do you play soo poo?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
SOOPOO
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December 28th, 2016 at 6:50:44 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I do. It doesnt matter if you believe it or not. My pocket is happy. I picked up another 500 last night... how did you do?

Where do you play soo poo?



I play at Seneca Niagara in Niagara Falls USA. I play craps maybe once a year, usually because whoever I'm going with wants to play craps. When I play I play pass line with some odds and lots of come bets with odds, and occasionally bet on 6 and 8. So I will tend to lose but have a decent chance of getting lucky and win. But I do not expect to win when I play craps. When I play my favorite game at Seneca Niagara (they don't have Tiles), there are some times due to weak dealers I have an advantage, like definitely yesterday, but most days I just play against the 1-2% house edge, and hope to win (luck) but will more likely lose.
And you are correct, it doesn't matter whether anyone believes you or not. I am just telling you that no one here believes you have found some magic system that will reliably beat craps. No matter how many times you type it. No matter how many different ways you say it.

Just out of curiosity, your system was working last night so that you made $500. Why weren't you betting double so you could have made $1000?
After making $500, why didn't you just start over and make another $500?
WatchMeWin
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:01:11 AM permalink
As I mentioned before... greed kills and pigs get slaughtered. Discipline is key. It is not something that can be explained, but learned over time. I will just tell you that I whole heartedly believe that dice rolls are not random and independent of previous rolls. I know 95% of the board are going to say bs to that... however, if you have played enough, you will know that I am correct. You really just need to know how and when to bet certain ways.... and never get too greedy.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:18:24 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

It's like whack a mole in here. One system player leaves, another takes his place

Do moles hibernate or just LIE in dormant for a while?

Wack-A-Troll sounds like a fun game.

Ask (google) and ye shall recive
http://www.silvergames.com/whack-a-troll
http://www.roomrecess.com/pages/WhackATroll.html
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Romes
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:21:41 AM permalink
Well, it's certainly fun to think of new ways to play a game you enjoy, but I hope you know something at the end of the day... no one ever 'consistently' wins at craps. Anyone who tells you they consistently win is either lying or referring to a very short term number of rolls of the dice. The game, straight up, can not be beaten with any combination of negative expectation bets. They ALL carry a house edge except odds, which is a ZERO edge bet that will result in NEITHER the house nor the player coming out ahead on that bet alone over time... and in order to even make that bet you MUST make a negative edge line bet.

Math can't be argued with, bartered with, nor bought. Expectation is what it is. Every single bet on the craps table (other than odds) comes with a negative expectation that WILL be reached in the long run. As sure as you can be that a good card counter will realize their expected profits in the long run you can be sure that you will LOSE your expected amount in the long run in craps.

Playing short sessions (hit and run) or changing up how you bet or betting 6 because today is Tuesday all have ZERO EFFECT on the game. Sure, you can have fun with it and FEEL like you win more often by hit and running for a small amount, but the math will come to roost when you go and just lose your entire buy in several sessions in a row which will squash all of your tiny wins and then some. Same principle as the Martingale betting system... It works, until it doesn't.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
AxelWolf
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:22:50 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

As I mentioned before... greed kills and pigs get slaughtered. Discipline is key. It is not something that can be explained, but learned over time. I will just tell you that I whole heartedly believe that dice rolls are not random and independent of previous rolls. I know 95% of the board are going to say bs to that... however, if you have played enough, you will know that I am correct. You really just need to know how and when to bet certain ways.... and never get too greedy.

Quote: WatchMeWin

if blue jay is out there listening.... how many live craps sessions would it take for you to put your money up ? Meaning, If I told you I would consistantly win in real life craps (we will talk winning %'s later), how many actual live craps sessions in a casino would be enough to satisfy your doubt that someone can consistantly win? 10? 20? 50? 100? 200? 1000? 200,000? I would go up to 20x. Any amount after that would take to long.



Quote: WatchMeWin

Im not looking for an investor at all... dont need one. I simply love the challenge.



How did this go?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:29:01 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I think we just all need to meet up sometime and play craps together. Some things just need to be seen live. I will be in Vegas during march madness. I am also in AC and Foxwoods often.

What's your average bet on craps?

Average bankroll you are willing to risk during a session?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:35:35 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How did this go?



He would not accept the challenge.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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December 28th, 2016 at 7:36:13 AM permalink
Boy, you like to go back into the archives , huh..lol
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
MrV
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December 28th, 2016 at 8:17:10 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I whole heartedly believe that dice rolls are not random and independent of previous rolls. I know 95% of the board are going to say bs to that...



Really?

They're NOT?

*back to the drawing board*



Hey, thanks for the tip?

This changes EVERYTHING!
"What, me worry?"
WatchMeWin
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December 28th, 2016 at 8:26:28 AM permalink
Let's just have a fun trip somewhere and play craps together. We will play on the same table, same shoots, etc... and lets see who comes out winners. Hopefully we all win... but I know what my outcome is most likely to be.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
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December 28th, 2016 at 8:51:21 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

He would not accept the challenge.

He wouldn't? Why is that? Oftentimes the challenger will just make the terms difficult on purpose knowing the challenge/bet won't be accepted as a way to save face.

I have a simple "challenge" proposal for system players.

Bet the table the table minimum, or whatever you want however you want. Whatever you win Ill match, double, triple etc, whatever we agree on. Whatever you lose you owe me the same as to whatever we agreed on. You or I can quit and settle up whatever one of us wants to.

I won't honor any dealer mistakes, player tips, or funny business.

And NO, this offer isn't for +EV games or situations.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
rushdl
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December 28th, 2016 at 9:08:02 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Everyone has a system and everyone has a preferred style of play.... but who here consistently wins in craps? If there is anyone here who does, it would be great to hear your strategy.



I'm still up on my original bankroll, taking 5-10K per year, all at $5 bank craps. It's a system I wrote called the Loophole and its absolutely positively from the DONT-PASS line.
Romes
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December 28th, 2016 at 9:32:59 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I whole heartedly believe that dice rolls are not random and independent of previous rolls. I know 95% of the board are going to say bs to that...

Yeah, 99.9% of all those mathematicians, engineers, programmers with simulations, etc, etc... What the hell would all of them (that make up the 99.9% that say you're crazy) know, am I right?

It DOES take guts and innovation to look the world in the face and know the world is wrong, but it also takes a lot of guts to admit when you're wrong and the world is right. We have mathematical proof that each roll is an independent trial... What evidence do you bring, other than your superstitions, that they are in fact not independent trails?

I once had a thought... What if someone flipped a coin every year until they died (let's say 80) and they saw an overwhelming majority of heads... Like 60/80. Well, then the mathematicians of the world would look at you and say "You're in the short run, you don't have enough trials to get to the long run odds so you could see a variance like this." However, to that person that lived 80 years and flipped 60 heads, that coin is NOT a 50/50. It was biased to the heads side of the coin for their entire life. What it comes down (in the short run) is perspective. To the rest of the world if we went on flipping that coin it would in fact come out to 50/50 in the long run, assuming a fair coin of course... However for that mans LIFE, which for what we know is all we get, the coin WAS NOT a 50/50.

What you should take away from this story is not the fact that you "could" be right. The reality of the story is the coin was NEVER BIASED the entire time, just from the dead guys SINGULAR PERSPECTIVE which was perceived from THE SHORT RUN. So while it's "fun" to think about and play with superstitions and betting patterns that seem to win "frequently" (for now) you must eventually come to the realization that you will lose. It is a mathematical certainty the more you approach the long run and minimize your standard deviations. Either way, even if you plug your ears and close your eyes you will inevitably lose. Math does not require your belief to work.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
MrV
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December 28th, 2016 at 9:42:14 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

I'm still up on my original bankroll, taking 5-10K per year, all at $5 bank craps. It's a system I wrote called the Loophole and its absolutely positively from the DONT-PASS line.



Best be careful where this line of thought takes you: see rule 10:

"Betting systems: Methods of varying bet size, based on previous wins and losses, not only can't overcome the house edge, they can't even dent it. However, if you're one of the many mathematically ignorant gamblers who think adding up negative numbers can result in a positive one, please keep your comments restricted to the betting systems sty."

You're wallowing in the wrong "sty."
"What, me worry?"
charlestfuller
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December 28th, 2016 at 10:42:24 AM permalink
The system that I use still comes out occasionally positive after 2000 rolls. I created an excel table that uses random numbers and wagers how I would. Again, that's occasionally positive, and often enough for me to take notice. Whether it would count as consistently winning, I'm too scared to look deep enough haha. I like to think it's a net positive system.
MathExtremist
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December 28th, 2016 at 10:58:49 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

We have mathematical proof that each roll is an independent trial...
...
Math does not require your belief to work.

We also have physical proof. Roulette wheel clocking leads to predictable results, under the right circumstances, because there is a physical basis for it. It's been tested and repeated not only in lab settings but in casino settings ("Eudaemonic Pie," etc.) We also know that dice sliding leads to predictable results, and that the whip shot is predictable against a flat backboard, but those aren't consistently repeatable in a casino. Moreover, we also know that generic throwing on a generic table is *not* predictable. Physicists have studied this and concluded that at the level of imprecision in a casino dice game, the dynamical system of throwing dice onto a craps table "approximates the random process." (M. Kapitaniak, et al., “The three-dimensional dynamics of the die throw,” CHAOS 22, 047504 (2012))

In other words, to continue your thought, physics does not require his belief either. Denying the physics of dice throwing is like denying the physics of a round Earth or of heliocentricity. It might make instinctive sense to a child who is innocently naive about the world, but childlike naivete in an adult is not so innocent. It's the same sort of naivete that leads to anti-science denial in other guises (anti-vaccine, climate change denial, insisting that abortions cause breast cancer, etc.) It's also been the source of thousands of people spending money on bogus "guaranteed winning" gambling systems for roulette, or taking "precision dice shooting" seminars.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RS
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Joined: Feb 11, 2014
December 28th, 2016 at 11:24:15 AM permalink
If you can consistently win using some method or system at a game like baccarat or craps......why in the hell are you only winning $500? There are thousands and thousands of these tables across the USA. Liquidate as many assets as you can, put together a bankroll, and start making at least $1M a year.


Or does your BS system only work with $5 chips?
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
  • Threads: 105
  • Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
December 28th, 2016 at 12:20:02 PM permalink
I have a simple "challenge" proposal for system players.

Bet the table the table minimum, or whatever you want however you want. Whatever you win Ill match, double, triple etc, whatever we agree on. Whatever you lose you owe me the same as to whatever we agreed on. You or I can quit and settle up whatever one of us wants to.

I won't honor any dealer mistakes, player tips, or funny business.

And NO, this offer isn't for +EV games or situations.



Im up for it. Where are you located Axel?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 169
  • Posts: 22553
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
December 28th, 2016 at 12:40:26 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

I have a simple "challenge" proposal for system players.

Bet the table the table minimum, or whatever you want however you want. Whatever you win Ill match, double, triple etc, whatever we agree on. Whatever you lose you owe me the same as to whatever we agreed on. You or I can quit and settle up whatever one of us wants to.

I won't honor any dealer mistakes, player tips, or funny business.

And NO, this offer isn't for +EV games or situations.



Im up for it. Where are you located Axel?

Las Vegas. I see you mentioned something about visiting during March. We can agree on a 3rd party to hold the money and verify everything.

Please give me an estimate of what levels you are interested in betting and how much I need to cover.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
iamnomad
iamnomad
  • Threads: 5
  • Posts: 108
Joined: Nov 3, 2014
December 28th, 2016 at 12:45:26 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Im up for it. Where are you located Axel?

Las Vegas. I see you mentioned something about visiting during March. We can agree on a 3rd party to hold the money and verify everything.

Please give me an estimate of what levels you are interested in betting and how much I need to cover.



We need an independent third party to observe and report all this for the enjoyment of the rest of us. Should be 'effin hilarious, if it ever actually happens...
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