What if Dice control works
Quote: alphastormSo let's just assume dice control is a real thing. How would you go about betting?
I am sorry. I would be forced by common sense to bet on the casinos, which of course means that dice control does not work since the casinos have been surviving it for donkey's years.
If you know how the dice are biased, bet that way. If you don't, bet according to the numbers that are showing up the most. Either that bias will persist and you'll make money, or it won't and it will all average out to the normal expectation anyway. The only way you lose if someone is biasing the dice is if you bet against their bias.Quote: alphastormSo let's just assume dice control is a real thing. How would you go about betting?
ZCore13
I think the total cost of ownership of a Shetland Pony is probably greater than 8.46%. I'd stay at the craps table for an extra few days.Quote: Zcore13I would whisper in the DI's ear " What number are you going to throw?" And then I'd bet on it. And then just to make sure he does it some more I would tip him half of all my winning. Then I'd ask him again very quietly "When are you coming back?" And as sure as the day is long I would return at that time with a very large sum of money that I had just borrowed from a bank at 8.46% interest and quadruple it. I would then go back to the bank and pay off my loan the next day and go buy a Shetland Pony.
Do your kids have one?Quote: GWAEYou guys are ridiculous. Why would you buy a fat pony. You should buy a miniature horse.
The don't bet doesn't have a new edge. It has a lower conditional probability of winning, but those are different things. The odds bet is the new bet and that has an edge of 0. The question you should ask yourself is "do I want to make a no-vig lay bet on the 10 or do I want to put my money elsewhere?"Quote: lilredroosterThis is not about dice control but I heard an interesting comment about dice strategy. The poster said that if you bet Don't Pass and then got through to a number such as 10 for example that there's no way you should lay odds. Because after getting past the past line roll and not sevening or elevening out and landing on a number your bet now has an edge. If you lay odds you reduce that edge with the two bets, the number and the lay. Interesting. But what's the point anyway in looking for an edge unless you believe in DI because overall your total bet is still negative EV.
Quote: MathExtremistI think the total cost of ownership of a Shetland Pony is probably greater than 8.46%. I'd stay at the craps table for an extra few days.
It would only be a 1 day loan. I'd make sure there were no prepayment fees. Also, I'd like it to be an indoor pony. So I should probably consider the chance of damage on my projections.
ZCore13
If it's an indoor pony, you're going to need a place for it to sleep.Quote: Zcore13It would only be a 1 day loan. I'd make sure there were no prepayment fees. Also, I'd like it to be an indoor pony. So I should probably consider the chance of damage on my projections.
I suggest a craps table. With no legs of course, otherwise how would it climb in?
Quote: pwcrabbAbsent other factors, over time the big bankroll wins.
False.
PB = personal bankroll
CB = casino bankroll
Risk of ruin is therefore: CB/(PB+CB) in a fair game or wager. So you either end up with all the money (yours + casino's) or the casino ends up with all the money (yours + casino's).
But the casino doesn't always win, even though they are more likely to win (assuming you play forever until one has all the money).
In the short run, of course, the limited bankroll can prevail. That is why we play.
But I still prefer to Take Odds rather than to Lay them.
I've done that on occasion. Even better is if you find a don't player who is in the habit of pulling their bets down on numbers they don't like (e.g., 6 or 8). Offer to buy the bet from them for face value. If they say yes, you're getting a +EV bet that pays even money more than half the time. You can even buy the bet from them at greater than face value if it's big enough (e.g. you pay $105 to buy a $100 bet), splitting some of the +EV with them but keeping some for yourself. The dealer will still pay the player, but then the player will (or should) hand everything over to you. Buying a 6 or 8 is a 9.1% player edge, minus whatever you pay extra to the player. Buying a 5 or 9 would be a 20% player edge and 4 or 10 would be 33.3%, but I've never seen anyone pull down a 4 or 10.Quote: lilredroosterFrank Scoblete whose books and claims I don't consider to be legitimate nonetheless made an interesting comment. He said that if a player bets pass or come and does not choose to bet the free odds then you, if you are at the table can ask him if you can make a free odds bet on his number and if he says okay then you can do it. He didn't say it but I'm assuming that he is claiming that the dealers or boxman will not object to this. So then you have made the only bet in a casino (excluding an AP's bet at blackjack) that does not have negative EV. It has an edge of zero. Of course, the bet is technically his bet, so if it is won I guess he could claim that it is his but that would be a pretty bold move on his part. Kind of interesting.
