Number Of Consecutive Rolls?

This following information was taken from an article debunking the DC7 system.
I took notice of this answer from the author in the comments section.

"you may be interested in this determination of the craps game from ERIC ST. GERMAIN,
HE HAS PUBLISHED MANY GAMBLING BOOKS.
94.6 % of the streak patterns weather PASS or DON’T PASS are 4 or less in length, with only 5.4% of the streaks being five or longer."

After an internet research, I was not successful in finding any books by St. Germain, but apart from that my question is about
streaks and consecutive rolls.

I'm wondering if there is any optimal number of rolls which lead to those 20, 30, or more consecutive rolls before the shooter PSO?

For example, someone told me that if a shooter reaches 9 rolls before 7ing out he is likely to continue on a successful roll?

Thank you for any thoughts or comments.

If the shooter has rolled x times, he's far more likely to hit y rolls than had he only rolled z times for all z<x<y. Fact, not opinion.

Quote: eclectic

For example, someone told me that if a shooter reaches 9 rolls before 7ing out he is likely to continue on a successful roll?

Anyone who would say that is a quack. The word "streak" should be a red flag that the writer is a "phony and a fraud" to quote Mitt Romney.

Quote: eclectic

"you may be interested in this determination of the craps game from ERIC ST. GERMAIN,
HE HAS PUBLISHED MANY GAMBLING BOOKS.
94.6 % of the streak patterns weather PASS or DON’T PASS are 4 or less in length, with only 5.4% of the streaks being five or longer."

He was the retired Doctor who compiled actual results into books like "Craps System Tester" and some on Roulette and Baccarat in the 1990s
when I was young

I have the complete CD package in a computer I got from me uncle
yep, that is him
Zumma publishing

Quote: eclectic

For example, someone told me that if a shooter reaches 9 rolls before 7ing out he is likely to continue on a successful roll?

only IF those 9 rolls are voted to be successful
not like
7,2,2,3,6,12,3,6winner,12

I say wait until one has 15 rolls
that is halfway to 30
just has to do it again

at 10 and going to 20
could be just a loser that is lucky
(I bet against the losers)

Yes but that's what the captain called the rhythmic roller. It's what I call The Illusory Correlation.

Eric St Germaine got his results before Scoblete was taking millions off the craps table. He wrote the book, you could look it up. (Thanks Casey)

Quote: eclectic

I'm wondering if there is any optimal number of rolls which lead to those 20, 30, or more consecutive rolls before the shooter PSO?

For example, someone told me that if a shooter reaches 9 rolls before 7ing out he is likely to continue on a successful roll?

A couple of terms need to be defined:
First, what is meant by "optimal number of rolls"?
Second, what is meant by "likely to continue"?

The expected number of rolls before somebody sevens out can be calculated easily, but keep in mind that the number is the same for every comeout roll. You are not any more (or less, for that matter) likely to make a point following a seven out than you are following six made points in a row - or six missed ones, for that matter.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

The expected number of rolls before somebody sevens out can be calculated easily, but <snip>

i agree and that value is meaningless, imo

Quote: ThatDonGuy

You are not any more (or less, for that matter) likely to make a point following a seven out than you are following six made points in a row - or six missed ones, for that matter.

disagree big time

points and pass line winners are directly the result of how GOOD the shooter IS.
not the dice or time of day.

It is what it is.
Poor shooters have awful hands and one should NEVER bet on them only against them.
the math says so too.

not all shooters are created equal
but many think they are

that is HILARIOUS
right Hillary!
right Sally

Quote: DeMango

Eric St Germaine got his results <snip>

from actual casino tables, not from a computer or a home table made NOT to casino standards.

the REAL deal

looks like hitting points is a good indicator of a long roll
and a good shooter

the first shooter in the book past 20 rolls is at 40 rolls with 6 points hit
then a 23 with only 1 point hit (7 8,9,9,9,8)
looking...
then a 20 roller with 0 points hit
then a 23 roller with 2 points hit
looking (lots of bad result shooters)

this looks good
or bad
depends on how you want to win money

Excellent points everyone. I was looking for an inverse to the 5-count; which purportedly eliminates X% of random shooters. Even if a 5-count is reached, it still does not eliminate all random shooters. So, how far past the 5-count does a shooter have to get before it would be safe to start pressing big, hoping for a 20+, 30+ roll etc? That would define the optimal number. As a filter, I think that number would also have to end on a box number, like the 5-count.

Sally, not a critique but I find some of your posts hard to understand, since I'm a newbie. Probably over my head with the math. Are you saying that the optimal number is 15? or is this just a guess? From this post, that optimal number looks random, and isn't that what the math shows?

I'm thinking that optimal number can be determined from an analysis of long rolls based on total number of rolls and total 7s. But then again I saw the poll where
most members thought any type of back testing was waste of time.

Oh, and thank you Sally for the background history you posted on Eric St. Germain. I don't know about your Uncle, but the best way to learn anything is to have a mentor.