CHARTING A TABLE

Quote: ontariodealer

over heard at our game today.....roll, 12......roll, 12......player says to newbie player "you should have bet a $5 twelve"

Gambling is sooooooo much easier when the outcome is already known, isn't it! :-)

DS, can you share details on how you make the correct adjustments? All I currently have to go on is Chapter 22 in FSs book, "CASINO CRAPS: Shoot To Win"
With so many variables that create the perfect throw/outcome, it seems like a real balancing act? "When That Happens, This Is What You Do" (Chapter 22)
entail a lot of concepts to juggle. Thank you for any thoughts you can provide.

You will also find out that what color socks you are wearing will have different results with the same set. REALLY If you have any doubts, do 100 rolls with yellow socks, then 100 rolls with green socs, all the while using the same set. You will be amazed at the difference !

Has Private Messaging disappeared? Have all the dice influence websites disappeared? Are we asking those who can't, help with those who can't. Really trying to not get suspended.

Quote: MathExtremist

If you decide to step outside your bubble of confirmation bias and willful statistical ignorance, there are lots of people here who can help you actually evaluate your results and make legitimate statistical conclusions as to whether -- and to what extent -- you are influencing anything. There is an entire branch of mathematics that deals with sampling random populations like dice rolls and evaluating whether they conform to predetermined distributions. A simple chi-squared test would reveal far more than all of your informal anecdotes.

Now, I don't expect you to do this investigation. Not only is it a fair amount of work, but it is almost surely going to reveal that you don't have the control that you think you do. Nevertheless, the tools are there should you wish to use them. But please, don't suggest that the mathematically-inclined members here don't know what we're talking about. Not only do I know what I'm talking about, I know what you're not talking about.

If you bought books, software expensive equipment and worked on something for years and years. Something that gave you happiness, joy, friends and an identity among other things. Would you want to know the truth? Then have to admit you were wrong all this time after defending it to the death, thus killing your passion and legacy?

Well


now you are asking the 64,000 question.

The adjustments I am talking about are in regards to your sets and how they affect
the finish of your dice.

Lets say you throw a GTC toss and you use the hard way set. If I use that shot and
have a couple or a few rolls where the dice look ok and I get a 3/4 4/3 way to often,
I am ending my shot on the same axis set up as it started. This finish I can get
a 4/3 3/4 5/2 2/5 and since my shot cant ever be perfect on every roll which would get
you a hard4,6,8,10 instead I end up with a 3/4 4/3..........

MY first adjustment is to land the dice 3-4 inches further from the back wall. Next adjustment
is to change to a 3/v 2/v set which if I land on that access more than 70% of the time, I
will only have 2 ways to make a 7.

My inline shot is a much harder shot to make correctly so I can vary more in the
quality of that shot. Lets say I use a 3v set with 52 and 61 x axis. If I make the shot
correctly and get a 7 and do it again next hand and get another quick 7, I change the
x axis on both. Next I change the y axis. Each change is done to move the position
of the 7 you are getting.

People talk about dice control...... pure nonsense, there is no control. What there is trying
to make a shot that is similar enough that day to produce some similar results, then make
a change to take advantage of that. I understand this sounds like nonsense to many, but in
truth it is just reality. Just because your shot varies from day to day which it does, does
not mean it is not consistent enough each day to hopefully take advantage of something
you see.

that's the point that most of the guys say hell that is just variance... makes sense to me, but
than again I have had to much success after making an adjustment to always have variance
show up when my shots looks good and I made adjustment in sets.

that's the great thing about doing what I am doing, I do it for me, I don't do it for them

dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Well


now you are asking the 64,000 question.

The adjustments I am talking about are in regards to your sets and how they affect
the finish of your dice.

Lets say you throw a GTC toss and you use the hard way set. If I use that shot and
have a couple or a few rolls where the dice look ok and I get a 3/4 4/3 way to often,
I am ending my shot on the same axis set up as it started. This finish I can get
a 4/3 3/4 5/2 2/5 and since my shot cant ever be perfect on every roll which would get
you a hard4,6,8,10 instead I end up with a 3/4 4/3..........

MY first adjustment is to land the dice 3-4 inches further from the back wall. Next adjustment
is to change to a 3/v 2/v set which if I land on that access more than 70% of the time, I
will only have 2 ways to make a 7.

My inline shot is a much harder shot to make correctly so I can vary more in the
quality of that shot. Lets say I use a 3v set with 52 and 61 x axis. If I make the shot
correctly and get a 7 and do it again next hand and get another quick 7, I change the
x axis on both. Next I change the y axis. Each change is done to move the position
of the 7 you are getting.

People talk about dice control...... pure nonsense, there is no control. What there is trying
to make a shot that is similar enough that day to produce some similar results, then make
a change to take advantage of that. I understand this sounds like nonsense to many, but in
truth it is just reality. Just because your shot varies from day to day which it does, does
not mean it is not consistent enough each day to hopefully take advantage of something
you see.

that's the point that most of the guys say hell that is just variance... makes sense to me, but
than again I have had to much success after making an adjustment to always have variance
show up when my shots looks good and I made adjustment in sets.

that's the great thing about doing what I am doing, I do it for me, I don't do it for them

dicesetter

What's a 64,000 question?

Quote: dicesitter

if I land on that access more than 70% of the time, I
will only have 2 ways to make a 7.

Once again, total lack of understanding of DI concepts. The word is axis, please learn how to spill. 70% on axis, even short term, has never been claimed by anyone. Once again we are in the land of 18 yo's in a row. Cheesehead needs help, can't get it on this site, but won't quit spewing nonsense.

Quote: DeMango

The word is axis, please learn how to spill...

Cheesehead needs help, can't get it on this site, but won't quit spewing nonsense.

Really??? Glass houses...stones...bueller? Anybody?

Cheeseheads are proud to be cheeseheads, so I'm letting this ride, but your post is dripping with disdain, and you are RIGHT on the line. Do not cross into insults, please.

Quote: AxelWolf

If you bought books, software expensive equipment and worked on something for years and years. Something that gave you happiness, joy, friends and an identity among other things. Would you want to know the truth? Then have to admit you were wrong all this time after defending it to the death, thus killing your passion and legacy?

The quest for the truth is a far greater purpose than defending a legacy based on falsehoods. Refusing to consider new evidence and refusing to change one's understanding is not scientific inquiry, it is dogmatic zealotry. The difference between a scientist and a dogmatist is simple: scientists rely on rational inquiry in the pursuit of truth, regardless of what truth that may uncover, while dogmatists work backwards from their unquestioned beliefs and engage in whatever leaps of illogic are required to support them.

There are some people who still believe the Earth is flat. They are wrong. It's not a debatable point, they're just wrong. There are still many attempts to justify that belief despite the fact that anyone who's ever traveled around the world ("around" being the operative word) or seen pictures like this one knows otherwise:


There are also some people who believe that the Earth is 6000 years old, or that it is static and the sun revolves around it. Those people are wrong too. Fortunately we live in a time where saying as much won't lead to being victimized by the Inquisition and forced into house arrest for heresy (as it did for Galileo in the 1600s).

If someone's legacy is the fanatical, unthinking support of an obvious falsehood, that's not much of a legacy at all.

Quote: dicesitter

MY first adjustment is to land the dice 3-4 inches further from the back wall. Next adjustment
is to change to a 3/v 2/v set which if I land on that access more than 70% of the time, I
will only have 2 ways to make a 7.

There are two ways to interpret this percentage. One is that you mean your percentage of axial-face avoidance is 70% or more, which is significantly greater than the random figure of 44.44%.

The other way to interpret that percentage is that 70% of the time, you keep the dice on axis intentionally, and the other 30% of the time the dice tumble and avoid the axis faces with the same 44.44% frequency as normal. That means the total percentage of axial-face avoidance is 44.44% * 30% + 70% = 83.33% (or 5 out of every 6 throws).

If you can achieve this, the 3-V set yields a significant positive edge on the passline, all inside place numbers, and a double-digit edge on the hard 6 and 8. But that's not the best way to bet, not by a long shot. For example, if you're missing axial faces 5 out of 6 rolls, the 3-V yields a double-digit negative edge on the field. With that level of control, there are other sets that give you a positive double-digit edge on the field. That's really where you'll make your money -- double-digit player edges on single-roll bets.

You've studied this for seven years, you have the ability to avoid the axial faces 70% of the time or more (compared to 44.44%), yet you don't know how to bet in order to maximize your winnings? That doesn't seem credible to me.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Really??? Glass houses...stones...bueller? Anybody?

Cheeseheads are proud to be cheeseheads, so I'm letting this ride, but your post is dripping with disdain, and you are RIGHT on the line. Do not cross into insults, please.

The software here underlines, with red, all questionable spellings, including bueller. Spill was a sarcastic, deliberate mispilling on my part.

When we speak of throwing stones, please check your PM's, about a month ago, about a deliberate attack by one member about another out of the closet member. The silence in the last month or so is deafening.

Defiance is American, I think we may have invented it.
I'm trying to remember the term, I'm getting slow ( OK, slower than my old slow)
Got to go look it up now, back in a minute.....

Back, ....too lazy to find what I wanted, didn't look actually.
I'll go with 'Don't tread on me', that'll work for now.

Take that, all you authority figures in the world! ....;-)
Signed...rascal

I thought I posted this but cant find it.

Now I cant remember what I said


At any rate, Sue and I are back in Wisconsin, not to much worse for the journey.

It was the best casino trip we have taken, even better than the month in vegas
because Sue actually did ok on the slots and card games.

We hit about 13 casino's and I played 26 sessions.

26 sessions is about 6 months of play for me at home.

I came home ahead on craps, but barely. I guess when you play six months
worth of craps and are ahead that is better than random. However my
poor play cost me about $1000 which would have made the trip much
better. I ended the trip with a 7.8 SRR which if you would have said before I
left I would have that I would have thought the win would have been
much higher.

I hit a number of small fire bets and ATS wins, but never hit a 5 point fire bet
or the complete ATS.

I did meet a number of guys from the different craps schools and that
was fun, ran into Howard Rocknroller just after he hit the ATS bet for
a nice win.
Pretty much everything I believe about the game and shooting the dice
was what I saw. when I played well and my shot was on target I did
fine. When I played tired, played on tables that don't fit me or particularly
on the first day, I wanted to use my table top shot and I bet way more
than normal, and the shot was not good... i was stubborn and stayed
with it. When I made a change I would normally make much quicker
I was ok.

I bet way to much on others.

So my results were on me, when i played like a knucklehead it cost me, when
I played like a good player should player....I did very well.

I need to decide whether I want to be a player, or a good player.

dicesetter.

Math

We just got back from a couple of sessions tonight.

I started with the 3v set and had an ok roll and finished with
a 6-1... three shorter rolls all ended in a 6-1 . I knew where
the 7's were coming from . new how the axis finish played
into this and changed to a set to hopefully take advantage
of me repeats.... had a very good 24 roll and made very decent
money

We left with a good profit and heading to a casino with an ATS
feature bet. I started with the same base set, had a 10 roll, couple
short rolls and all the 7's but one were 6/1......... I changed to a set
again to take advantage of that and had a 25 roll.

We colored up and had over $1000 in profit.

Now I understand none of this seems credible to you......

Just ask my bubby how it seems to him.


dicesetter

Luck happens.

Congrats.

DS. Looks like you and the Mrs. had an enjoyable trip. And thank you for your reply to my question. A few observations. I read this on the forum somewhere before but I don't recall the poster. Everybody and his dog mentions the hardways set for avoiding the seven. I can't agree to the hardways set for this purpose and I just don't get it. Will somebody please explain to me exactly why it avoids the 7 because if on axis, the 7 has more ways of appearing; unlike the 3-v, 2-v or crossed sixes? Maybe it's because the shooter doesn't stay on axis then?

And, isn't making an adjustment to your set a convoluted way to justify a bad throw? Instead of making a set adjustment, wouldn't it make more sense to make an adjustment to your delivery mechanics? After all, isn't the idea to try an on axis throw? My thinking if that the dice don't land on my numbers, my throw is off in some way.

My angle, is to set for the all 7s set, and if both die are not on either a 2,3,4 or 5, my mechanics need changing: not the set.

Regards your landing tip, My understanding is to try and have the dice land 12-18 inches from the back wall. So, I don't understand how landing them 3 or 4 inches further out is working? (eg. 16-22 inches further?)

You mentioned discipline. Yes! Discipline is all about personal psychology and belief systems, another subject in itself.

Again, thank you for what I consider a meaningful dialog.

Quote: dicesitter

Math

We just got back from a couple of sessions tonight.

I started with the 3v set and had an ok roll and finished with
a 6-1... three shorter rolls all ended in a 6-1 . I knew where
the 7's were coming from . new how the axis finish played
into this and changed to a set to hopefully take advantage
of me repeats.... had a very good 24 roll and made very decent
money

We left with a good profit and heading to a casino with an ATS
feature bet. I started with the same base set, had a 10 roll, couple
short rolls and all the 7's but one were 6/1......... I changed to a set
again to take advantage of that and had a 25 roll.

We colored up and had over $1000 in profit.

Now I understand none of this seems credible to you......

Just ask my bubby how it seems to him.


dicesetter

You just described what happens at just about every craps session Ive ever had. Decent 10 roll. few short rolls and a good roll of 25 (not necessary in that order). The question is, were you on the numbers that happen to be falling in this session? With 1000 in profit, probably so. I dont think it had anything to do with any set change.

ME wrote:

For example, if you're missing axial faces 5 out of 6 rolls, the 3-V yields a double-digit negative edge on the field. With that level of control, there are other sets that give you a positive double-digit edge on the field. That's really where you'll make your money -- double-digit player edges on single-roll bets.

I don't follow all of your explanations.

Can you please explain further about the best sets for a shooter with hypothetical DI? On the assumption of some DI, what in your opinion would be the best strategy for the highest risk/reward ratios?

Thank you for your insights.

ECLECTIC


Excellent post.

Your right on some things here. The hard way set is not a set to avoid a 7. Any on axis
finish in the hard way set offers 4 ways to make a 7 in that set,,, 3/4 4/3 5/2/2/5.

Your right again when you say dice do not stay on axis the whole roll.

Here is the thing, what Math and Axel and MRv says makes sense, I understand
their position, I thought exactly like that for 37 years. I even thought exactly like that
for five of the years I worked on my shot. Until you understand or accept the relationship
between set and shot and set and 7 you will never agree with anything I say.

If I throw a 3v set and I have a consistent shot which most days I do, and I get a 6/1 seven
and I get a 6/1 7 and I get a 6/1 7....that's tells you my shot is not finishing in the 3/v set
position, the left die is rotating and the right die is finishing on axis. Now remember we
talked about the hardway set. On axis finish is a killer 4 ways to make a seven.. but!!!!
if one die is off the axis with is a 1 or a 6 and the other is a 2,3,4,5 is on.... it is most difficult
to make a 7.

Now this is not magic it wont happen all the time, but enough to make a profit
with it.

You had asked about changing your mechanics instead of the set. First we have to agree
that your shot has to be similar enough each time so the adjustments are effective. If your
mechanics are bad.. nothing will help. if they are ok, then ask yourself what tweek could you
possibly make to your mechanics every time you have a bad outing before you are so
lost you cant even roll. I don't think it is possible.

If I throw a poor shot I don't make any adjustments in the set it is a waste of time, if it is
that bad I go home. Now if I make a good shot time after time, I can adjust my set to that
result.

In terms of your shot being closer or further from the back wall, well you change the
distance they travel you change the numbers they land on. When I am talking about that
I mean your shot has to hit in a circle about the size of a poker chip for you to use distance
as a correction. (this is with parr/gtc) shot.

The very most important thing is for your shot to be repeatable...first ..before you attempt to
make any changes in set to obtain a result closer to what you need.

dicesetter

Quote: eclectic

ME wrote:

For example, if you're missing axial faces 5 out of 6 rolls, the 3-V yields a double-digit negative edge on the field. With that level of control, there are other sets that give you a positive double-digit edge on the field. That's really where you'll make your money -- double-digit player edges on single-roll bets.

I don't follow all of your explanations.

Can you please explain further about the best sets for a shooter with hypothetical DI? On the assumption of some DI, what in your opinion would be the best strategy for the highest risk/reward ratios?

Thank you for your insights.

It will depend entirely on the nature and magnitude of the influence. How are the dice moving as they come to rest? That's what the DI believers never seem to understand. Everyone's always talking about "SRR" but that's a useless statistic by itself. That should be self-evident, especially when so many people track SRR, claim ridiculous numbers like "I can throw a 7 less than once every 7.5 rolls" but never seem to make any money. I've said it before: anyone who can bias the dice to that extreme degree and isn't making huge amounts of money doesn't understand the nature of their influence and doesn't know how to bet it.

The example I used above -- missing axial faces 5 out of 6 rolls -- assumes no other correlation between faces. There are other theories that depend on being able to make the dice rotate the same number of times. The real issue is that nobody is actually tracking their results properly in order to examine whether they have an influence over the trajectory of the dice. Recording just the final results isn't sufficient. Similarly, the crowd that tries to "keep the dice on axis" often records data simply by whether the final face was on or off the axis during the throw. That's an incorrect methodology. If you throw the dice and you're trying to keep them on axis, then you have failed if they tumble sideways at all. Even if they tumble some more and land with a non-axis face up by chance. You'll see a non-axis face 4 out of 6 times anyway, even if you just drop the dice from 5 feet up. Just like in billiards, slop doesn't count.

See, this is what I'm talking about:

Quote: dicesitter

Your right again when you say dice do not stay on axis the whole roll.

If the dice don't stay on axis the whole roll, they didn't stay on axis at all. "Staying" on axis is different than "ending" on axis.

It's like trying to stay balanced on one foot for sixty seconds. It doesn't matter if you're standing on one foot after sixty seconds if you had to stand on two feet several times in the interim.

Math

That is not at all relevant and you know it.



dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

That is not at all relevant and you know it.

What I actually know is apparently entirely different than what you think I know. Perhaps that's why we're having such a failure to communicate.

Suppose you're setting the dice with 6s up and 2s forward. You throw the dice and they come to rest with 6s up and 3s forward. Did the dice "stay on axis"?

DS, thanks for your thoughtful reply. Maybe the answer to try and change delivery mechanics is a coach. But then, I have talked w/guys that have been to the seminars and they claim their throws are no better than anyone else's. Circular reasoning? Glad you agree about the fallacy of the hardways set. Clears that up for me. Right now, say I set for the all7s set and both die land on either a 2,3,4 or 5. Lets say I get a 3-2 or 4-2. I'm on axis. My reasoning then leads me to play $110 inside by placing the remaining numbers, and setting with the 3-v. If I hit one of those numbers, I then regress to say, 22 inside. If I do not stay on axis with the first throw, I can then try again--one more time--but still regress my bet to 22 inside. And this is why I posted the question to MathExtremist. I'm definitely a newbie, just trying to develop a workable and disciplined strategy for the DO side; while attempting to take this a less bit seriously.

Math

Math I don't know what you know, but I think your smart, and I think you
more than likely are much smarter in the math part than I am.

On the other hand I throw 18,000-20,000 practice rolls a year, I know much more
about my results than you do.

The answer to your question is I have no idea. You can only attest to the starting axis
with the 3/4 on the axle or a axis, 6/1 on the y and 5/2 on the z. They came to rest
with 5-2 on the x axis and so on, I have no idea how they got to that position.

dicesetter

ME, that also makes total sense to me. I like the words: incorrect methodology. Landing on axis and staying on axis is certainly two different events. There are certainly too many variables that impact a controlled throw. Hence the fallacy of the control argument. Tks for your reply. In an attempt to answer the question I posed to you, say you think or believe you have influence. Set for the all7s and if on axis on the comeout, just lay all numbers across the board, aiming for a repeat of the 7? What is the bet betting strategy assuming some DI?

Eclectic


100% correct there is no such thing as dice control the way a lot of people
want it defined...It is not possible for one reason......human affect.

None of us are the same from one day to another, so it stands to reason
your shot is not exactly the same.

Yes I feel I have influence as recorded on my table.....

To me that is enough to show me it is possible. the question is can you
take that advantage from your table to a casino. Even worse can you
take your shot which is going to vary from day to day to a casino and
win........

As far as sets are concerned I can tell you what set to use because I don't know
your shot.

Lets say you use the GTC shot..... take a set and throw 20 rolls record both dice
do it again and again and again and again you have 100 rolls. Is there any thing
that stands out, any number you tend to end up with on top on your right die
or our left die that is more than random...

Now do it again and again and so on. You do this to see if you shot is repeating
anything.

Then change sets and do that over again and so on. After a couple of thousand rolls
(IF) you have a decent shot you will begin to see some things.

Now I indicated that when I got 6/1 several times last night I changed to a set
that I felt would do better than the one I was using. So really I had two options,
first I could keep going the way I was, or I could change in a way that makes sense
based on the data I get from my practice.

I spent a good many years doing nothing, and I spend a good number of years after
I developed a shot not understanding a damn thing about it. I am learning
about the set, how it affects the outcome and how the specific 7 you get can
mean something.....

The betting strategy is again on you. Can you make money on your rolls??????
If you cant, then just bet as conservatively as possible using the lower HA bets, don't
press until you get your money back.

If you can make money on your rolls..... I mean for sure!!!!.... then bet more on yourself
and bet as little as possible on others. I wait 5 rolls and then make a com bet with
double odds. If the shooter makes his number, I cover than come bet with a pass line
bet equal to the base bet of the com bet. If I get ahead on the roll I play it like any good
roll.

I am very conservative starting out, I honestly don't know what shot or set I may
end up with. When I know for sure what I am going to use I will bet two places numbers
or two come bets and don't press until I get my money back. I would rather
have my money on the 4 & 10 than the 5 & 9.

I also use a regression bet ,but I wont go into that now.

dicesetter

dicesetter

Quote: eclectic

ME, that also makes total sense to me. I like the words: incorrect methodology. Landing on axis and staying on axis is certainly two different events. There are certainly too many variables that impact a controlled throw. Hence the fallacy of the control argument. Tks for your reply. In an attempt to answer the question I posed to you, say you think or believe you have influence. Set for the all7s and if on axis on the comeout, just lay all numbers across the board, aiming for a repeat of the 7? What is the bet betting strategy assuming some DI?

There really isn't any way to answer that without quantifying how much influence you have. If you crunch the numbers you'll see it's not a linear relationship between the amount of influence you exert and the house edge on a given bet. There are certain cases where a small amount of dice influence can turn a bet player-favorable but a stronger influence makes it house-favorable again and even worse than where you started.

For example, as an exercise, compute the edge on the Place 6 bet when using the hardway set for (a) 0% on-axis control, (b) 10% on-axis control, and (c) perfect 100% on-axis control. Assume no face correlations.

Quote: dicesitter

The answer to your question is I have no idea. You can only attest to the starting axis
with the 3/4 on the axle or a axis, 6/1 on the y and 5/2 on the z. They came to rest
with 5-2 on the x axis and so on, I have no idea how they got to that position.

I didn't ask how they got to their resting position, I asked whether the dice stayed on axis. If the dice started on the 3/4 axis and didn't end up on the 3/4 axis, why is that a hard question?

Math


You asked if they stayed on axis.......... that could mean did they come to rest on
the same axis, did they finish on the axis they started on, or did the two dice in
fact both stay exactly on the same access during flight.

With all due respect, and I mean that, this is foolish. What we get paid on is the
numbers we end up with......period......if a guy can throws enough he will understand
his shot if???? it is so similar to the last one and so on so that he can patterns. Once
that happens you can change that set to see if their are changes in patterns, and so on.

Math on my last trip, playing for 15 days straight, I saw wins on the ATS bet, I had five.
I saw 3 wins on the fire bet, I had two of those. Of 8 guys that left the table with a decent
profit, 6 of those were people that either had developed a shot or recorded every shot
on the table. There were 9 shots I recorded over 20 shots, I had 6 of those. Last night
we played. my buddy and myself, We played at two different casino's on two different
types of tables. There were two players that left both tables well ahead, the two of
us. there were 3 rolls well over 20, I had two of them, my buddy had the other.

I understand you are using all your ability, which I believe is considerable, to prove what I just
said was not so.... but you cant do it, because it is so. and it has been so for a couple
of years now. I just glanced at my practice record since I got home.... daily SRR... 8.25. 17.2
6.1, 6.9 , that is a good average and trip of 14 days with a 7.8 average,

Now lets be honest, it was never me on here that talked about making millions, it was you. It was
never me that said if you had any influence at all it could be managed to make millions it was
you. It was never me that suggested because I have proven to myself I can change the HA
some, I should be able to take that to any casino at any time and work wonders ,,it was you.

I have said over and over dice control is a myth. But I have also said if you do enough work
you can alter the effect of the HA on your bank roll, and by making bets with a lower HA
and extending your SRR you can over-come some of that advantage and finish the year of
play even or a tad ahead..

Math can you try to show how smart you are, you can try to say things differently than I do, you
can even say I am not explaining this properly, you can go on and on, you can have me kicked
off the forum for being silly about this stuff......but you cant change the fact that the other night
I made some changes in set because what I saw at the casino is something that I have seen
on my table, and the change I made is a change that has worked on my table and it worked
at the casino.

You think that was silly because it could not have had any real effect, I think it would have
been damn stupid not to make that change.

Math if I was as smart as you are, I would damn sure figure out how to do what I am doing.

Dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

If you can make money on your rolls..... I mean for sure!!!!.... then bet more on yourself
and bet as little as possible on others.

EXACTLY.

This poses the question.... Mr. dicesitter why aren't you betting more on yourself? Especially if what you said about either being even or up a tad at the end of the year is true.

If you had a stock that guaranteed you would be up a tad or even at the end of every year wouldn't you invest as much as possible? Craps is even better than a stock because you seem to love doing it.

If you bet big enough that tad would be a big score on the winning years. The even years could generate significant comps, free bets, tournaments, gifts, free trips and various offers.

I wish I had a game I loved, one that I could play around the world 24/7 365 and bet as much as possible and guarantee a win or break even.

You have spent years doing all this and from what I have gathered is it hasn't been profitable.

If you have the time to practice 20k rolls per year surly you could easily set up a camera and record everything.
Show proof that you can influence the dice and I'm certain you'll become very respected and wealthy.

Please none of that "I'm not in it for the money crap"
If it wasn't about winning you could've chosen any other hobby

AW wrote:

If you had a stock that guaranteed you would be up a tad or even at the end of every year wouldn't you invest as much as possible? Craps is even better than a stock because you seem to love doing it.

Actually one can make a case there is less risk in craps from this perspective. On a craps table you are guaranteed to lose only what you have on the table. With the stock market, you there is no guarantee of losing what you may have set as a 'stop loss'. You may lose more...even a lot more...if the stock or the market fails to open.
Investing and gambling have a lot in common: the illusion of control.

Quote: dicesitter

You asked if they stayed on axis.......... that could mean did they come to rest on
the same axis, did they finish on the axis they started on, or did the two dice in
fact both stay exactly on the same access during flight.

With all due respect, and I mean that, this is foolish. What we get paid on is the
numbers we end up with......period......

You do indeed get paid only on the numbers you end up with. However, without understanding how those numbers got to where they are, you have no ability to accurately quantify whether your throw is actually influencing the outcomes or whether you are just getting lucky. That is precisely your problem: you are ignoring the *how* and focusing only on the *what*.

It should go without saying that if you throw the dice and they do not stay on axis during their flight, they did not stay on axis even if they end up on a desired number. Yet you're arguing over this obvious tautology.

Quote:

But I have also said if you do enough work
you can alter the effect of the HA on your bank roll, and by making bets with a lower HA
and extending your SRR you can over-come some of that advantage and finish the year of
play even or a tad ahead..

You have said it, but you can't quantify it because you don't understand it. That means you are just guessing. It's just wishful thinking that you are "making bets with a lower HA." You cannot know your HA if you don't understand your hypothetical altered outcome distribution, and you don't understand that outcome distribution because you are only tracking SRR. SRR, by itself, is not enough information to know the HA on any given bet. HA and SRR are not well-correlated.

However, if you actually do have a long-term 7.8 SRR, that is indicative of a very strong influence, not just a minor one. The fact that you are only breaking even or coming out a tad ahead, with that level of influence, is really quite sad. It means you have no idea how to play in order to truly profit from your alleged influence. (More likely is that your recordkeeping is awful and you don't actually have the influence you think you do in the first place.)

Quote:

Math if I was as smart as you are, I would damn sure figure out how to do what I am doing.

If you were as smart as I am, and you actually had the dice influencing skills you say you do, you'd use those skills to make serious money, not just break even. Why would anyone put in years of practice just to break even?

Math


Math do you have any understanding of dumb it is to spend your
time telling me what I cant do. If I have been working on this for
7-8 years don't you think I am smart enough to see the difference
between what my records show over that time, how I do at the
casino over that time. How many years do think you can blame
variance ?????

Do you think I kept track of every roll on my trip so I could end up
with an SRR of 6.1 and tell you I had a 7.8.... Sorry your just
not that important to me.

dicesetter

if you think you have an advantage with some numbers using certain sets, why don't you hit those number
s hard.....you talk of "regressing'???????????

Quote: OnceDear

Your link is broken.

Should be http://edell.casinocitytimes.com/article/the-secrets-of-charting-the-tables-31931

But utter bunkum! That whole site is full of crap(s)!

You can chart past results till the end of time, but past rolls (That's all you can chart) give no indication of future rolls (That's all you can bet on)

UNLESS you spend your winnings on a time travel machine. *
'...a successful betting strategy could be exploited based on an ability to bet yesterday, based on tomorrows analysis of yesterdays rolls'.
But then you wouldn't need to chart the results, just bet on the exact outcome that you've already observed tomorrow.

*Nice little paradox there. 'Buy time machine today, from yesterdays massive winnings: Make massive winnings yesterday by using time machine to travel there.'

I answered this already in my short story here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/3663-the-foolproof-system-for-beating-roulette/

and the sequel: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/3704-another-fool-proof-system-for-beating-roulette/

Quote: MathExtremist

Just like in billiards, slop doesn't count.

So then, it's call shot not call pocket?

Can't do that without slo mo. Slo mo reveals.

What are the chances of calling a shot,,,, a week in advance?

ontariodealer



One would use a regression system not because he was afraid, but because it
allows you to actually get more money on the table, with a smaller bank roll.

now I am sure you already knew that.


dicesetter

one of the things I have noticed is that during the bad rolls players are willing to lose x amount of dollars...but during the good rolls they are scared to make xx amount of dollars and start turning bets off, taking them down and regressing. Its why nobody ever wins in the long term.

ontariodealer



It is pretty easy to set on the other side of the table and tell people later
what they should have done.... not different than coaching from your arm
chair during a foot ball game.

Money management is a game the casino will always win, because they
never run out of money.

If you want to win over time, there are going to a very good number of
sessions where you make very little, and yes that can mean there are
times you take your bets down. You say, well that's why they wont make
any money. The question I have for you is how many times you see a
red chip player start with $6 6 & 8 and maybe $5 5 and 9 and work it
up to 3 units on each and then here comes the 7. I will tell you that
happens 10 times more than the roll goes on long enough to make
enough additional money to cover what they could have collected
had they taken that bet down there.

Had they not pressed until there covered their place bets and then
taken down with they got to 3 units they would have $94 on their
rack for a bet of $26..... I will take type of return on investment
any day of the week.

dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

Math do you have any understanding of dumb it is to spend your
time telling me what I cant do. If I have been working on this for
7-8 years don't you think I am smart enough to see the difference
between what my records show over that time, how I do at the
casino over that time.

8 years of postgraduate study is sufficient for a PhD in many fields. You should be the world's expert in dice throwing by now, yet you don't even know what your edge is on each wager, how to spread your bets to maximize your hypothetical advantage while minimizing bankroll variance, or how to do better than "breaking even or coming out a tad ahead."

I wouldn't consider that a successful 8 years.

dc, I play the game too......I even set the dice but I play craps for what it is, a great way to gamble...i press early and often

Quote: dicesitter

Money management is a game the casino will always win, because they
never run out of money.


dicesetter

It's the players who never run out of money. Money management is a game the casino will always win on craps because the house has the advantage.

Unless you know how to set the dice

Wizard

Exactly right, you cant bet your way past the HA, you cant outlive the casino's
money supply, and simply setting the dice means nothing....

Your catching on even though the last three posts are an attempt to
ridicule what I posted.

To be real honest math may be smart but I have no respect for him , nor does
he deserve any. I don't insult him for spending eight years learning nothing.
I am happy with the results of 8 years, now I understand things today that
if i wish I had learned much quicker, but that's life.

In the end you trade your time for what you get in return, I think I got a good
value for that effort, what in the hell did math get for his, the ability to cut
everyone else's work down......that is a damn poor return on his 8 years.

dicesetter

Dicesitter, Congrats on your positive results after 8 years of shooting dice. What are the DOs and DON'Ts which enable you to do well in craps? Perhaps you may have 10 Commandments of dice for a winning shooter, if so, please share with readers.

Quote: dicesitter

To be real honest math may be smart but I have no respect for him , nor does
he deserve any. I don't insult him for spending eight years learning nothing.
I am happy with the results of 8 years, now I understand things today that
if i wish I had learned much quicker, but that's life.

You misapprehend my objection, friend. I think you've wasted eight years and countless hours throwing dice on your practice table, but that's your time to waste and you're within your rights to waste it.

However, you have also suggested that anyone can practice the way you have and actually achieve enough influence to change the house edge. That's wrong. Based on the data you collect and don't collect, your results don't allow you to actually know how or whether you have changed the edge. You are just guessing.

You are welcome to guess, and you are welcome to make all sorts of leaps of illogic and spend eight years doing it. But you are not welcome to recommend that others follow your lead based on that guesswork and illogic. That is the same kind of innumeracy and greed that leads people to buy roulette or baccarat betting systems, and I would argue that your approach is more dangerous. With a roulette or baccarat betting system, the mark learns very quickly that they have been conned because the system doesn't work and they've only lost a little money and time. But if someone tries to replicate your claimed dice influencing results, they may spend years trying and failing. That's far more costly.

And I don't care about winning the respect of someone who tries to pass off innumeracy, greed, and wishful thinking as a worthy use of one's time. I'd much rather earn the respect of someone who avoids falling for your nonsense as a result of reading my posts.

Quote: dicesitter

Wizard

Exactly right, you cant bet your way past the HA, you cant outlive the casino's
money supply, and simply setting the dice means nothing....

Your catching on even though the last three posts are an attempt to
ridicule what I posted.

To be real honest math may be smart but I have no respect for him , nor does
he deserve any. I don't insult him for spending eight years learning nothing.
I am happy with the results of 8 years, now I understand things today that
if i wish I had learned much quicker, but that's life.

In the end you trade your time for what you get in return, I think I got a good
value for that effort, what in the hell did math get for his, the ability to cut
everyone else's work down......that is a damn poor return on his 8 years.

dicesetter

Can you explain why you kept going after 2, 3 , 4 , 5, 6 years or whatever it was until you" learned what you were doing"? Especially if you kept losing money? It's hard to believe that suddenly after many disappointing years that suddenly you figured something new out. Can you explain what it was that took you so long to figure out, because certainly that's the key. That information is worth a fortune.

Is it possible that you were just running bad or average at the beginning and you chalked that up to lack of skill and now that you're running good you're contributing that to skill when in fact its all just variance?

Artemis



Its simple, takes classes in throwing the dice, more than one type of throw, and then
find what works for you. Don't do what I did, just throw for 4-5 years hoping to get
better, have people watch what your doing so you can improve and then practice
and record so you can document to yourself what works and what does not.

I have a wonderful life, and I don't know how in the hell it happened, but i just love the
game of craps. Everyday is a different challenge because it is always a challenge
against yourself, and that is the best kind.

I tell you, i am damn near 70, and there are days I can hardly contain my excitement for
the next session... how lucky can you get.

dicesetter