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guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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October 3rd, 2015 at 7:02:13 PM permalink
Was watching a craps tournament last week. It was the final round, 15 rolls. Somebody went all in on the don't pass at about the 8th or 9th roll.

At the 15th roll this guy with almost the same bankroll as the don't player puts his entire bankroll in the field. The don't pass player kept it on the donts

Wouldn't it make sense to move the don't bet to the field since it's the last roll and there are 16 ways to win on the field and only 6 to win on the don't?
Mission146
Mission146
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October 3rd, 2015 at 9:21:14 PM permalink
Was the guy who bet the Field behind? If so, then yes, the Don't Player should have put his bet on the field by virtue of the fact that the other guy couldn't beat him regardless of what happened.

The only exception is if there were other Players that still had chips and a Field loss 20/36 would have caused one of them to win. Keeping the Don't bet, you have a better chance of the guy missing the Field than you do of hitting it yourself. Basically, you're just trying to avoid the point.
Vultures can't be choosers.
petroglyph
petroglyph
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October 3rd, 2015 at 10:32:36 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

Was watching a craps tournament last week. It was the final round, 15 rolls. Somebody went all in on the don't pass at about the 8th or 9th roll.

At the 15th roll this guy with almost the same bankroll as the don't player puts his entire bankroll in the field. The don't pass player kept it on the donts

Wouldn't it make sense to move the don't bet to the field since it's the last roll and there are 16 ways to win on the field and only 6 to win on the don't?

Isn't there 8 ways to win the don't pass?
petroglyph
petroglyph
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October 3rd, 2015 at 10:33:41 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Was the guy who bet the Field behind? If so, then yes, the Don't Player should have put his bet on the field by virtue of the fact that the other guy couldn't beat him regardless of what happened.

The only exception is if there were other Players that still had chips and a Field loss 20/36 would have caused one of them to win. Keeping the Don't bet, you have a better chance of the guy missing the Field than you do of hitting it yourself. Basically, you're just trying to avoid the point.

I've never been to a craps tourney, but that is brilliant.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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October 3rd, 2015 at 10:49:09 PM permalink
He needed to win that bet to win the $20,000 tournament grand prize. He would have won the tournament if the shooter 7'd out, if the shooter rolled a 6 he would have busted, anything else and the game stops and he doesn't have enough to win the tournament.

I think if you need to win on that last roll the field is a great bet. The don't is mathematically a better bet but it's also a grinder bet that can take a while to win or lose. If you need to quickly double your money, you probably have a better chance doing it in the field than the donts, even if you already survived the come out roll.
Mission146
Mission146
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October 5th, 2015 at 8:13:07 PM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

I've never been to a craps tourney, but that is brilliant.



Thanks! I've not done one either, actually.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
Mission146
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October 5th, 2015 at 8:17:45 PM permalink
Guitarmandp,

I think I'm misunderstanding your initial scenario. Why did the DP bettor need to win that bet? Does he not get his chips pushed back if the last roll fails to resolve the DP?
Vultures can't be choosers.
Exoter175
Exoter175
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October 5th, 2015 at 10:08:41 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Guitarmandp,

I think I'm misunderstanding your initial scenario. Why did the DP bettor need to win that bet? Does he not get his chips pushed back if the last roll fails to resolve the DP?



They shouldn't, in every craps tournament I've ever played in, all bets standing after the last roll are returned to the players. It seems like in every tournament there's a guy betting DP/DC and half the guys are worried about him winning because of a 7. When in all reality, he's betting more to win less with a higher probability of success. In such a short window, its actually likely more favorable to do something like a heavy IC with a whirl/any7's/hop7's bet on top, rather than the DP/DC.

I know a few guys who will do something like $25 4/5/9/10, $30 6/8 with $25 whirl/world bet, or $25 5/9 $30 6/8 w/ $25 4/10 hardways w/ $25 any 7's and/or $15 hop 7's. These are the guys that almost always tend to win the tournaments because their action is steady and not ultimately too risky to lose placement in a multi-round setting. The last one I was in, I won with a $25 horn high aces bet on our first roll, and used a similar strategy to the above to grind out the remaining rolls.
NokTang
NokTang
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October 6th, 2015 at 3:29:02 AM permalink
Quote: petroglyph

Isn't there 8 ways to win the don't pass?



Six with a seven out. If you count the come out roll, I still don't come up with eight? I think the point was established so only six in this instance. The field is a one roll bet as you know. Often, in tournaments, the other one roll bets have limits on them. All depends on the circumstances. In addition, in a few I've played in, if you are there for the last roll, you bet in order so that impacts it. It's usually a resolution of the last shooter as well. All strange in this example.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
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October 7th, 2015 at 1:58:57 PM permalink
Moving your bet from the don't to the come would be better than leaving it on the don't pass. If it's on the come and the shooter rolls a 6 it's a push because your money gets returned to you after the last roll. If you leave it on the donts you lose on a 6. If the shooter rolls a 7 you still win on the come.

If you need a decision that roll which is what this player needed the field is the best bet

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