Anyways there were lots of 7's and 11's in the come out rolls but I'd say the shooter didn't make his point more than usual as probably about 70 to 75% of the shooters didn't make their point but this guy still got killed.
My question is was he unlucky or is betting big on the flat and nothing on the odds a dumb way to play?
Quote: guitarmandpMy question is was he unlucky or is betting big on the flat and nothing on the odds a dumb way to play?
yes, dumb. Any simulation will show he was doomed [assuming the table min was anything like the usual]
Pass or Don't Pass either one, the variance is too low. SD is close to 'one'. Pretty much means you wind up predictably close to expectations.
Probably when someone, maybe a dealer, told him the old canard about it making no sense to take a bet that is going to pay even [the don't], and then add bets that pay less than even [laying odds] ... he bought it. That can make perfect sense to the verbal mind - but of course no sense at all mathematically.
Oh, and he probably wanted "no action" a lot too.
PS: recently a dealer brightly asked me if I knew I could move my Don't bet to the Pass line once the point was set. This guy would buy into that too, no doubt.
7's and 11's during the come out will definitely destroy a Dark Side player who plays like that guy.
Quote: odiousgambityes, dumb. Any simulation will show he was doomed [assuming the table min was anything like the usual]
Pass or Don't Pass either one, the variance is too low. SD is close to 'one'. Pretty much means you wind up predictably close to expectations.
Probably when someone, maybe a dealer, told him the old canard about it making no sense to take a bet that is going to pay even [the don't], and then add bets that pay less than even [laying odds] ... he bought it. That can make perfect sense to the verbal mind - but of course no sense at all mathematically.
Oh, and he probably wanted "no action" a lot too.
PS: recently a dealer brightly asked me if I knew I could move my Don't bet to the Pass line once the point was set. This guy would buy into that too, no doubt.
Now that I think of it, I do remember one instance where 8 was the point, and he pulled his bet and said loudly "I'm not messing with this shooter trying to make an 8", he then put it on the don't come where the shooter rolled a 5. Shooter ended up making the 8 so he would have lost anyway, but the player wasn't happy when the shooter rolled an immediate 5 knocking off his $300 don't come bet.
Oh yeah, table minimum was $15 so he bet 20-40 times the minimum on the donts.