guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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June 6th, 2015 at 3:13:55 PM permalink
Last night I saw a guy buy in for like 5 grand and he got *BURIED* on the don'ts. It was a cold table so there weren't a lot of points but he had no odds, he would just bet $300 on the don'ts and if the shooter made a point or if they rolled a natural he'd put $500 or $600 on the don'ts.

Anyways there were lots of 7's and 11's in the come out rolls but I'd say the shooter didn't make his point more than usual as probably about 70 to 75% of the shooters didn't make their point but this guy still got killed.

My question is was he unlucky or is betting big on the flat and nothing on the odds a dumb way to play?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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June 6th, 2015 at 6:14:41 PM permalink
Quote: guitarmandp

My question is was he unlucky or is betting big on the flat and nothing on the odds a dumb way to play?



yes, dumb. Any simulation will show he was doomed [assuming the table min was anything like the usual]

Pass or Don't Pass either one, the variance is too low. SD is close to 'one'. Pretty much means you wind up predictably close to expectations.

Probably when someone, maybe a dealer, told him the old canard about it making no sense to take a bet that is going to pay even [the don't], and then add bets that pay less than even [laying odds] ... he bought it. That can make perfect sense to the verbal mind - but of course no sense at all mathematically.

Oh, and he probably wanted "no action" a lot too.

PS: recently a dealer brightly asked me if I knew I could move my Don't bet to the Pass line once the point was set. This guy would buy into that too, no doubt.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
drjohnny
drjohnny
Joined: Sep 2, 2012
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June 6th, 2015 at 6:23:55 PM permalink
Optimal play according to the Wizard is to bet the table minimum on the don't and lay max odds.

7's and 11's during the come out will definitely destroy a Dark Side player who plays like that guy.
guitarmandp
guitarmandp
Joined: Mar 17, 2014
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June 6th, 2015 at 6:41:46 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

yes, dumb. Any simulation will show he was doomed [assuming the table min was anything like the usual]

Pass or Don't Pass either one, the variance is too low. SD is close to 'one'. Pretty much means you wind up predictably close to expectations.

Probably when someone, maybe a dealer, told him the old canard about it making no sense to take a bet that is going to pay even [the don't], and then add bets that pay less than even [laying odds] ... he bought it. That can make perfect sense to the verbal mind - but of course no sense at all mathematically.

Oh, and he probably wanted "no action" a lot too.

PS: recently a dealer brightly asked me if I knew I could move my Don't bet to the Pass line once the point was set. This guy would buy into that too, no doubt.



Now that I think of it, I do remember one instance where 8 was the point, and he pulled his bet and said loudly "I'm not messing with this shooter trying to make an 8", he then put it on the don't come where the shooter rolled a 5. Shooter ended up making the 8 so he would have lost anyway, but the player wasn't happy when the shooter rolled an immediate 5 knocking off his $300 don't come bet.

Oh yeah, table minimum was $15 so he bet 20-40 times the minimum on the donts.
TheWolf713
TheWolf713
Joined: Feb 12, 2013
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June 6th, 2015 at 7:31:43 PM permalink
Man that's #TUFF...... DP with max odds is the way to go if you're going to do it.
"I'm a DO'er and you my friend, are a Don'ter" -Mark Walberg pain and Gain

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