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PlayYourCardsRight
PlayYourCardsRight
Joined: Dec 29, 2011
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May 5th, 2015 at 10:05:48 AM permalink
Saw this play last night... and while I'm more than aware that the hop bets cannot be beaten (just as any other bet on the table) ... I was curious as to if there are any changes to the expectations.

A player made hop bets on all of the numbers on the easy side, without the sevens or the craps/yo.

That's a total of 10 bets at $5 each. When one hit, he made $30. That's a 3:5 payout.

He had a 20 winning combinations and 16 losing combinations (or a 5:4 positive expectation).

How do I figure the combined house edge of the bet? Seems like it's not a horrible way to bet, but then again, it is a center bet, and I know those are for suckers.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 5th, 2015 at 10:56:31 AM permalink
nice question
Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

A player made hop bets on all of the numbers on the easy side, without the sevens or the craps/yo.

i have seen this a few times in me time at the tables too
but the players also covered the hardways as they are not a one roll bet

Quote: PlayYourCardsRight

That's a total of 10 bets at $5 each. When one hit, he made $30. That's a 3:5 payout.

He had a 20 winning combinations and 16 losing combinations (or a 5:4 positive expectation).

How do I figure the combined house edge of the bet? Seems like it's not a horrible way to bet, but then again, it is a center bet, and I know those are for suckers.

at least the hops paid 15 to 1 instead of 15 for 1
like this


try
20/36 * 30 +
16/36 * -50 = ev
then
ev/50 = he

hint
all the bets have the same he, i think, so i doubt it will change combined

let us know if you need more and/or different help
Sally
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YouCanBetOnThat
YouCanBetOnThat
Joined: Nov 7, 2012
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May 5th, 2015 at 4:24:25 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally


all the bets have the same he, i think, so i doubt it will change combined


I agree. The bets combined have the same house edge as each individual bet (~11.11%).

So, this player is losing ~$5.56 each roll in the long run on these wagers. ($50.00 * 11.11% = $5.56)
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mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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May 5th, 2015 at 10:02:37 PM permalink
betting the 10 hops has created a multi-bet Lay bet
like place bets across

a high probability of a small win (relative to the total wager)
and a lower probability of a larger loss (the total bet)

say he has $500 to start
10X the bet

the chance to turn $500 into at least $1000 is abouts 2.4% (1 in 42)
yuk

with this Lay bet
13% chance to be totally wiped out, oh much nicer
the other is to have less than $50 to at least eat and drink something B4 the trip home
(comps could be good)
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