CRAPS ~ DICE UNBALANCE MYSTERY ~ DICE PHYSICAL DATA
June 28th, 2015 at 6:22:01 PM
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MathExtremist
I don't have any problem with your last post. there is no question that if a person can
at times influence the dice a tad and bend the HA, that difference from random would be
very small. There is no question that you cant rule out luck, particularly on long rolls
which are luck
But on the other hand, there is no way you can say there is no influence
being asserted on the dice by anyone and that all variance is luck.
I am not a lifetime winner, never will be, I spent 40 years playing this game and only
7 working on it. I am not a large better, wont ever be, so I will die a loser at the table,
but that last 7 have been much better than the first 33, and I continue to see
some things happen that I did not for 33 years....
I am 66, if this tends continues I have no complaints over the work I did.
dicesetter
I don't have any problem with your last post. there is no question that if a person can
at times influence the dice a tad and bend the HA, that difference from random would be
very small. There is no question that you cant rule out luck, particularly on long rolls
which are luck
But on the other hand, there is no way you can say there is no influence
being asserted on the dice by anyone and that all variance is luck.
I am not a lifetime winner, never will be, I spent 40 years playing this game and only
7 working on it. I am not a large better, wont ever be, so I will die a loser at the table,
but that last 7 have been much better than the first 33, and I continue to see
some things happen that I did not for 33 years....
I am 66, if this tends continues I have no complaints over the work I did.
dicesetter
June 28th, 2015 at 6:45:26 PM
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At anytime in that 33 years did you ever have a lucky run or a horrible run? Did you keep the same records then as you have in the past 7 years?Quote: dicesitterMathExtremist
I don't have any problem with your last post. there is no question that if a person can
at times influence the dice a tad and bend the HA, that difference from random would be
very small. There is no question that you cant rule out luck, particularly on long rolls
which are luck
But on the other hand, there is no way you can say there is no influence
being asserted on the dice by anyone and that all variance is luck.
I am not a lifetime winner, never will be, I spent 40 years playing this game and only
7 working on it. I am not a large better, wont ever be, so I will die a loser at the table,
but that last 7 have been much better than the first 33, and I continue to see
some things happen that I did not for 33 years....
I am 66, if this tends continues I have no complaints over the work I did.
dicesetter
You may be seeing what is just part of a lifetime of variance, and you are now averaging out.
If some random old grandmother can set the record for the longest roll. You could just be running slightly better than you should be. Somewhere someone has probably been running bad for 7 years.
If you can't achieve the highest level of DI in 7 years of practice, and achieve +EV results, then that's probably the 2nd best evidence that it's not possible to gain an advantage at craps. But most of us realized this long ago.
Just out of curiosity after year 3,,4 or 5 what kept you going?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 28th, 2015 at 10:15:24 PM
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Quote: dicesitterI don't have any problem with your last post. there is no question that if a person can
at times influence the dice a tad and bend the HA, that difference from random would be
very small. There is no question that you cant rule out luck
Not very small, indistinguishable. If you've been working on skill at throwing dice for seven years but your results are indistinguishable from what would occur randomly then you haven't developed enough skill to matter.
If you get to a statistically significant result, I'll be listening. Something where your results would have been less than 5% likely to have occurred by chance alone. In your case, that would be a roughly 0.9% gain on your total line bets, a total win of around $3000, give or take. But you're not there. After seven years of playing, you've lost money and you're well within the range of what anyone else would expect just by blindly hurling the dice down the table. There is no reason to chalk that result up to skill other than a case of confirmation bias.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
June 29th, 2015 at 7:02:56 AM
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Axelwolf
I have kept going for one simple reason...... in just the first year and a half after working on my shoot
I had 42 rolls over 40 a number over 50 and I cant count the ones over 30. That had never happened
before....
Now I am sure you will tell me this is all luck , but it was not and the folks playing with me would tell
you that as well.
But you cant just do what Ahigh did and stand there hour after hour and throw the dice off the back wall
and all around the table, that is not how you get influence.. You have to limit the bounce and the effect
of the back wall as much as possible.
But My hands don't work as well at my age now so there are times my toss is not always consistent and
I understand that... I am sure you wont.... but then I don't care what you will accept and what you
wont.... I keep going because when I throw one of my shots correctly I get results, when I am off I don't
period.. when you have a set designed for certain numbers to be seen more than others and you
throw it right...you get them... that is not luck
Friday I went to play for an hour..... one of my shots was awful, the dice rotation was just awful
and I had terrible results.... I switched to a different shot and repeated pretty well, I went back to the
first shot and was awful.... that is not luck because I am not judging the wins or losses I am looking
at the dice reaction. Saturday night I played and the shot I was having problems with Friday was
on so I used it and the dice reacted well.
\You and others assume once you get a shot that works all you have to do is go to the table
and it is perfect..... that is total BS.. the :"throw" is just like the delivery in bowling, the swing
in golf or hitting a baseball.....your not always the same, and when your off it shows...
You don't understand that, you think it means nothing and everything is just variance.
I feel a tad sorry for you... I understand and accept the limitations of dice control and what
I can and cant do, I accept their are many others far better than I am that's for sure and
I respect them for being able to do something better than I can....but your so entrenched
in your position that you allow for nothing else..
That's not for me
dicesetter
I have kept going for one simple reason...... in just the first year and a half after working on my shoot
I had 42 rolls over 40 a number over 50 and I cant count the ones over 30. That had never happened
before....
Now I am sure you will tell me this is all luck , but it was not and the folks playing with me would tell
you that as well.
But you cant just do what Ahigh did and stand there hour after hour and throw the dice off the back wall
and all around the table, that is not how you get influence.. You have to limit the bounce and the effect
of the back wall as much as possible.
But My hands don't work as well at my age now so there are times my toss is not always consistent and
I understand that... I am sure you wont.... but then I don't care what you will accept and what you
wont.... I keep going because when I throw one of my shots correctly I get results, when I am off I don't
period.. when you have a set designed for certain numbers to be seen more than others and you
throw it right...you get them... that is not luck
Friday I went to play for an hour..... one of my shots was awful, the dice rotation was just awful
and I had terrible results.... I switched to a different shot and repeated pretty well, I went back to the
first shot and was awful.... that is not luck because I am not judging the wins or losses I am looking
at the dice reaction. Saturday night I played and the shot I was having problems with Friday was
on so I used it and the dice reacted well.
\You and others assume once you get a shot that works all you have to do is go to the table
and it is perfect..... that is total BS.. the :"throw" is just like the delivery in bowling, the swing
in golf or hitting a baseball.....your not always the same, and when your off it shows...
You don't understand that, you think it means nothing and everything is just variance.
I feel a tad sorry for you... I understand and accept the limitations of dice control and what
I can and cant do, I accept their are many others far better than I am that's for sure and
I respect them for being able to do something better than I can....but your so entrenched
in your position that you allow for nothing else..
That's not for me
dicesetter
June 29th, 2015 at 8:52:43 AM
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You're eyesight must be amazing.Quote: dicesitterAxelwolf
I have kept going for one simple reason...... in just the first year and a half after working on my shoot
I had 42 rolls over 40 a number over 50 and I cant count the ones over 30. That had never happened
before....
Now I am sure you will tell me this is all luck , but it was not and the folks playing with me would tell
you that as well.
But you cant just do what Ahigh did and stand there hour after hour and throw the dice off the back wall
and all around the table, that is not how you get influence.. You have to limit the bounce and the effect
of the back wall as much as possible.
But My hands don't work as well at my age now so there are times my toss is not always consistent and
I understand that... I am sure you wont.... but then I don't care what you will accept and what you
wont.... I keep going because when I throw one of my shots correctly I get results, when I am off I don't
period.. when you have a set designed for certain numbers to be seen more than others and you
throw it right...you get them... that is not luck
Friday I went to play for an hour..... one of my shots was awful, the dice rotation was just awful
and I had terrible results.... I switched to a different shot and repeated pretty well, I went back to the
first shot and was awful.... that is not luck because I am not judging the wins or losses I am looking
at the dice reaction. Saturday night I played and the shot I was having problems with Friday was
on so I used it and the dice reacted well.
\You and others assume once you get a shot that works all you have to do is go to the table
and it is perfect..... that is total BS.. the :"throw" is just like the delivery in bowling, the swing
in golf or hitting a baseball.....your not always the same, and when your off it shows...
You don't understand that, you think it means nothing and everything is just variance.
I feel a tad sorry for you... I understand and accept the limitations of dice control and what
I can and cant do, I accept their are many others far better than I am that's for sure and
I respect them for being able to do something better than I can....but your so entrenched
in your position that you allow for nothing else..
That's not for me
dicesetter
Bowling, darts, pool etc etc you can actually see skilled players repeat similar results constantly. Some shots in pool have to be extremely accurate. I'm not talking just getting it in the pocket. I'm talking about cutting a ball that needs to pass in between 2 balls that have a **** hairs leeway in between. then travel 4 feet and clear a pocket. Guys can do it one handed with a broom handle. Yet in years and years we have yet to find anyone that can show anything but random results in craps DI. We can't find anybody who is actually making money at it either, yet there's a significant amount to be had. You said people are far better than you. Millions should be disappearing from craps tables. Yet most casinos let you freely set and "influence" the dice and then comp you afterwards.
Remember how everyone believed guys could bend spoons and keys with their minds and do various other things?
Please explain why? Especially since there's
Can you show us one slow motion video of your best shot(or anyone's)that does something special after hitting the felt? Just one that doesn't become random?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 29th, 2015 at 9:19:17 AM
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Axel
You ever see a bowler have an off night, did you ever see an excellent dart player better one night
than the next....
Dicesetter
You ever see a bowler have an off night, did you ever see an excellent dart player better one night
than the next....
Dicesetter
June 29th, 2015 at 9:53:52 AM
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You can visually tell when a bowler or dart player has a bad game vs a good game. When a DI has a bad game vs a good game, how can you tell the difference? Where's the video that shows how your dice don't bounce around the way everyone else's do?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
June 29th, 2015 at 10:49:01 AM
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I see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it
dicesetter
dicesetter
June 29th, 2015 at 11:15:27 AM
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Quote: dicesitterI see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it
dicesetter
Well, yes, unless there's an element you can clue in to us to say what would be a 'bad day'.
Here's a thought experiment (you could probably do it as well). Say you threw dice who had no markings you could see. Would you be able to say 'good throw' or 'bad throw' after each, without knowing the values that ended up on top of the dice?
Variance happens, and with dice, there's a lot of it, and you have to show the separation of random effects with influence. Not seen anyone convincingly do that yet (though one of you recorded dice series from AHigh showed there might have been something, but it was a small sample, though with a large skew from the normal).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
June 29th, 2015 at 11:31:59 AM
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Quote: dicesitterI see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it
I hope that this is not taken the wrong way, but I don't expect that anyone honestly believes that you had any epiphany, here.
Luck is more commonly interpreted as skill than a lack of luck is interpreted as a lack of skill.
If you are only ever confronted with the confounds of bad luck (and never good luck) it might be a sign that you are a victim of one who associates good luck with skill more often than one who associated bad luck with a lack of skill.
This is a critical feature of the human brain (the brain's desire to deny there is a problem with perception of control over its environment). When someone does not have control over their immediate surroundings as they would like to believe that they still do, it's not uncommon for our brains to lie to us to make us feel better.
You may be experiencing this. And if you were, you would be more than intimately familiar with so-called "bad luck" than the "good" variety thereof.
It is the "good luck" that you have to bring into thought and allow to manifest; hopefully you are crediting luck sufficiently enough and keeping your awesomeness out of the equation for explanation when things go your way. It's imperative to keep your senses aware of reality more than your own little bubble-universe where awesomeness is attributed to your abilities even a little bit too much in order to be honest with yourself.
aahigh.com
June 29th, 2015 at 11:46:41 AM
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Quote: dicesitterI see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it
dicesetter
Yes, exactly. And when they have a good day it's the same thing.
You seem like a smart enough person, although a little stubborn, you would think you could see the difference in skills. Here is the difference between dice influence and the other activities you mentioned.
Bowling - A very skilled bowler can tell you ahead of time what they are trying to do and then accomplish it real time on video with no editing. They might be attempting to get a strike or pick up a spare. They will do this far more often then the average player. This can be proven.
Darts - A very skilled dart player can tell you ahead of time exactly what they are aiming for and accomplish it real time and on video with no editing. They might say I am going for a bullseye or a triple 10. They will do this far more often then the average player. This can be proven.
Billiards - A very skilled pool player can tell you ahead of time exactly what they are trying to do and accomplish it in real time and on video with no editing. They might say they are going to do a specific combo shot, or maybe a very difficulty bank shot. They will do this far more often then the average player. This can be proven.
Dice Influence. Dice influencers have not been able to prove they are accomplishing anything they are trying to do in real time or on video with no editing. They have shown no influence over normal variance and no additional skills over a normal person rolling or throwing out of a cup. Dice influencers can't prove any of their claims using any form of proof that would be acceptable to any semi-intelligent person.
My guess is you've thrown more 30/40 rolls recently because you were probably working before that and are probably retired now. You probably play more now. So it would be normal you would have many more good rolls in total. I friend of mines wife played craps for the first time about a year and a half ago. She rolled about 30 times on her first ever time with the dice. Everyone was cheering her on and telling her how great she was doing. I've done the same and I don't even look at the dice when I pick them up or when I throw them.
It's cool that you have fun and that you think you save yourself money. More power to you. But you don't. And I'm guessing you don't want to play with anyone from here or stream it live because that would end your fun game. But that's ok. Just don't claim you can do things you can't without proof.
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
June 29th, 2015 at 2:51:35 PM
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Quote: dicesitterI see so when when a dice setter has a bad day it is variance.... now I get it
dicesetter
You are fooling yourself.
Not that long ago I had three hands in a row over 40 tosses, I know this for sure because they have a promotion where they keep track of the number of tosses each shooter makes at my local casino. You want to know my secret to those long tosses? Variance. I pick up the dice no matter how the stick man sends them to me and chuck em against the far wall.
I've also, using the exact same throwing technique, had several PSO's since them. Wanna know why? Variance.
June 29th, 2015 at 3:07:26 PM
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Ahigh
You could be right, but I don't think so.... you are coming at this from a different perspective because you
spent many hours trying and could not show any influence, so the very last thing you want to admit is
some one can show it....
But just for kicks and giggles lets see.... you select a box number an indicate it on here so we all can see it
and then throw a hundred rolls see if it varies from random.... I trust you and unlike you, I wont call you
a liar no matter what the results are.
I will also select a number and indicate it on here... and then I will throw a hundred rolls.. see what happens.
It may not prove anything.. but it is only a hundred rolls.
dicesetter
You could be right, but I don't think so.... you are coming at this from a different perspective because you
spent many hours trying and could not show any influence, so the very last thing you want to admit is
some one can show it....
But just for kicks and giggles lets see.... you select a box number an indicate it on here so we all can see it
and then throw a hundred rolls see if it varies from random.... I trust you and unlike you, I wont call you
a liar no matter what the results are.
I will also select a number and indicate it on here... and then I will throw a hundred rolls.. see what happens.
It may not prove anything.. but it is only a hundred rolls.
dicesetter
June 29th, 2015 at 3:16:56 PM
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Quote: dicesitterAhigh
You could be right, but I don't think so.... you are coming at this from a different perspective because you
spent many hours trying and could not show any influence, so the very last thing you want to admit is
some one can show it....
But just for kicks and giggles lets see.... you select a box number an indicate it on here so we all can see it
and then throw a hundred rolls see if it varies from random.... I trust you and unlike you, I wont call you
a liar no matter what the results are.
I will also select a number and indicate it on here... and then I will throw a hundred rolls.. see what happens.
It may not prove anything.. but it is only a hundred rolls.
dicesetter
So basically you want to have a test that, if you lose, proves nothing?
June 29th, 2015 at 3:26:58 PM
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Quote: AtGame7So basically you want to have a test that, if you lose, proves nothing?
At least he's consistent.
"What, me worry?"
June 29th, 2015 at 7:29:41 PM
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One thing I did like about the GTC forum when I was on it several years ago was the various sock puppets that came on every now and then and say something bogus, stupid or un PC. The regulars would be stirred up and foam at the mouth while correcting this puppet. Very entertaining and kept people coming back and often. I see this here too. The shame is using the "T" word here gets you silenced. Then there is the whack a mole thing. One gets nuked and he shows up again. When will it end?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 29th, 2015 at 8:08:44 PM
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What's the T word? Testable? Theoretical advantage? Tevidence?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
June 29th, 2015 at 8:21:16 PM
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Quote:What's the T word?
My guess: "trends."
"What, me worry?"
June 29th, 2015 at 8:23:00 PM
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Math
well I tried everyway I know to get you to be reasonable, but in the end
you are so tied what you have been exposed to you cant.
If you ever wake up and want to see some interesting things. let me know.
dicesetter
By the way, I 100 rolls I was talking about I would have chosen the combination
of 5 & 9.... out of a 100 rolls you would have expected a combination of
22 hits on the 5 & 9
well I tried everyway I know to get you to be reasonable, but in the end
you are so tied what you have been exposed to you cant.
If you ever wake up and want to see some interesting things. let me know.
dicesetter
By the way, I 100 rolls I was talking about I would have chosen the combination
of 5 & 9.... out of a 100 rolls you would have expected a combination of
22 hits on the 5 & 9
June 29th, 2015 at 8:47:18 PM
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Perhaps you missed this.
You said people are far better than you. Millions should be disappearing from craps tables. Yet most casinos let you freely set and "influence" the dice and then comp you afterwards.
Only slightly better would be incredible, Far better = Millions.
Why don't we have ONE person, one video, something, anything that can prove anything?
Why can't someone show us it's possible under the best conditions? 2 feet away from back wall. A mechanical device, dropping the dice from the same spot.
You said people are far better than you. Millions should be disappearing from craps tables. Yet most casinos let you freely set and "influence" the dice and then comp you afterwards.
Only slightly better would be incredible, Far better = Millions.
Why don't we have ONE person, one video, something, anything that can prove anything?
Why can't someone show us it's possible under the best conditions? 2 feet away from back wall. A mechanical device, dropping the dice from the same spot.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
June 29th, 2015 at 9:53:39 PM
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Exposed to what, math? Without putting too fine a point on it, I don't think you're in a position to judge what's reasonable. You've spent seven years trying to get an edge in casino craps through physical skill, but the expected distribution is so variable that your results have proven impossible to distinguish from random (i.e., anyone else's results). If you had truly developed enough skill to change the edge, you'd know it. The fact that you don't know it, after seven years, speaks volumes.Quote: dicesitterMath
well I tried everyway I know to get you to be reasonable, but in the end
you are so tied what you have been exposed to you cant.
The only reasonable thing to do would be to stop wasting your time. But it's your time to waste, so carry on.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
June 30th, 2015 at 12:54:16 AM
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Quote: MathExtremistWhat's the T word? Testable? Theoretical advantage? Tevidence?
Well my name is not yet in red so "Tr***"
I have gotten away with "Cheesehead"!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 30th, 2015 at 4:11:58 PM
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Mathextremist
Your not even close to being right,, you have no idea what my data shows. The only thing you
know for sure is that what ever I have provided is not good enough for you, so I assume
what ever I do provide wont be good enough either.
I have never commented on how I have done the past 7 years....
The only one that is sure I have no influence or that no other person has any influence is
you...... and that makes sense... it would be a person that has never tried to explain to others
why they should not try as well.
I tried to get you to understand that just like most things in life, your results can and do vary
from day to day......your not buying it, you assume dice control is the one thing In life where
the person throwing never changes from day to day and the throw is always perfect.
Now I know you know better than that.... so I have to assume you have some other motives.
That's ok, I am having fun, and I know others are to, i called them all yesterday and they
assured me they will be ok even if you assume they are all stupid.
dicesetter
Your not even close to being right,, you have no idea what my data shows. The only thing you
know for sure is that what ever I have provided is not good enough for you, so I assume
what ever I do provide wont be good enough either.
I have never commented on how I have done the past 7 years....
The only one that is sure I have no influence or that no other person has any influence is
you...... and that makes sense... it would be a person that has never tried to explain to others
why they should not try as well.
I tried to get you to understand that just like most things in life, your results can and do vary
from day to day......your not buying it, you assume dice control is the one thing In life where
the person throwing never changes from day to day and the throw is always perfect.
Now I know you know better than that.... so I have to assume you have some other motives.
That's ok, I am having fun, and I know others are to, i called them all yesterday and they
assured me they will be ok even if you assume they are all stupid.
dicesetter
June 30th, 2015 at 4:28:43 PM
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Quote:That's ok, I am having fun, and I know others are to, i called them all yesterday and they
assured me they will be ok even if you assume they are all stupid.
Wow, you called some DI's, told them about this thread, and to a man they all assured you that they will be OK, even though ME assumes they are all stupid?
Such a narrow, circumscribed world you describe.
"What, me worry?"
June 30th, 2015 at 4:56:51 PM
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Quote: MrVWow, you called some DI's, told them about this thread, and to a man they all assured you that they will be OK, even though ME assumes they are all stupid?
The amazing thing is he doesn't post on any dice/gambling board at all, or very sparingly. He just comes over here to get flagellated.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
June 30th, 2015 at 5:20:34 PM
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Demango
I am on 4 boards altogether, but this is the most fun because this is the one
place where the dice mean nothing.. and that is interesting.
But I was glad that a couple of others I spoke with were not so
heart broken that they decided to quit playing craps. We feel even
though we are just wasting our time we will keep plugging away..
who knows maybe we can stay lucky a little longer.
dicesetter
I am on 4 boards altogether, but this is the most fun because this is the one
place where the dice mean nothing.. and that is interesting.
But I was glad that a couple of others I spoke with were not so
heart broken that they decided to quit playing craps. We feel even
though we are just wasting our time we will keep plugging away..
who knows maybe we can stay lucky a little longer.
dicesetter
June 30th, 2015 at 5:28:33 PM
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Sure you did. You said:Quote: dicesitterI have never commented on how I have done the past 7 years....
Quote:There is no question that you cant rule out luck
Were you not talking about your results? Because if you can't rule out luck then there is no reason to believe your skill is having any impact on your results.
The way to demonstrate that your skill is affecting your results is to be able to (statistically) rule out random luck. Can you? Are your results over the past seven years within what would be expected from a random shooter or are they outside that boundary?
Do you even know what that boundary is? If you don't, how can you feel confident claiming that your results are based on skill?
Here's the thing. If you're a net loser over the time you've been using your skilled dice throwing techniques, then one of two things is the case. One is that you don't have enough skill (if any at all) to swing the edge in your favor. That's the most likely scenario, especially if you're unable to "rule out luck". The other is that you have enough skill to beat the game but you're betting improperly and failing to take advantage of it. That's where I could help you craft a betting structure to maximize your return and capture the edge that your skill would potentially allow. But I'm not going to do that unless you demonstrate that you have some skill, and since you're unwilling to show anyone a video of your skillful throws, this conversation has reached its conclusion.
Really, there's nothing else to say. You said "I'm a skilled shooter;" I said "show me;" and you said "no." So be it. But don't expect the other readers of this forum to buy into your naked assertions any more than I did (which is not at all). Proclaiming "I can skillfully throw the dice" might go over well in other corners of the Internet, where they believe in other assorted gambling superstitions, but the readers of this particular forum are too skeptical to accept such an unverified and improbable claim. If you have learned nothing else from this exchange, learn that.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
June 30th, 2015 at 9:27:03 PM
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mATH
Laughing....... your good, it does not do me any good to say anything
because you decide for yourself what I said or should have said.
You need to go back and read..... I never said I was a skilled thrower, I said my toss
shows there is some influence.... I never said I was better than anyone else.. in fact I
have been careful to indicate others that helped me are much than I am.
I provided two videos which showed much more limited bounce after the dice hit the table,
hardly any affect of the back wall and a much closer relationship of both dice when they came to
rest than any video Ahigh ever presented
I never claimed influence was consistent, in fact I have gone out of my way to indicate it can
vary from day to day depending on how well you deliver your shot.
Ahigh is the only person on here that indicated he was the best shot he had ever seen.
I have been honest with you, never claimed anything I don't feel I showed.
You cant except that, you must have your reasons for being so adamant that no human being
can anything you don't agree with... you are pretty sure you know what people you have never
met cant do...... i am sure of what i have seen.
You just need to live with it.
dicesetter
Laughing....... your good, it does not do me any good to say anything
because you decide for yourself what I said or should have said.
You need to go back and read..... I never said I was a skilled thrower, I said my toss
shows there is some influence.... I never said I was better than anyone else.. in fact I
have been careful to indicate others that helped me are much than I am.
I provided two videos which showed much more limited bounce after the dice hit the table,
hardly any affect of the back wall and a much closer relationship of both dice when they came to
rest than any video Ahigh ever presented
I never claimed influence was consistent, in fact I have gone out of my way to indicate it can
vary from day to day depending on how well you deliver your shot.
Ahigh is the only person on here that indicated he was the best shot he had ever seen.
I have been honest with you, never claimed anything I don't feel I showed.
You cant except that, you must have your reasons for being so adamant that no human being
can anything you don't agree with... you are pretty sure you know what people you have never
met cant do...... i am sure of what i have seen.
You just need to live with it.
dicesetter
June 30th, 2015 at 11:25:48 PM
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Quote: dicesitterI never said I was a skilled thrower, I said my toss shows there is some influence.... I never said I was better than anyone else
You don't recognize your self-contradiction. That's why we're talking past each other. As long as you're unwilling to show anyone why you think you have influence, and I don't mean a video of a few rolls, there's nothing for me to add. I gave you the experimental design for collecting the data to test the question of on-axis dice influence, but you rejected it in favor of "I am sure of what I have seen." So are people who believe in UFOs. A fervent belief in something doesn't make it true. EvenBob fervently believed Mitt Romney was going to win the last election.
And you keep talking about consistency for some reason. That's not the way variance works. The house has the edge in roulette despite the variance in results (or lack of consistency) because in the aggregate the house has a quantifiable edge. You don't need to be able to execute a controlled shot every throw in order to achieve a quantifiable edge. But you do need to be able to execute it with a given probability. If you don't know how often you're successful at influencing the dice, you can't quantify anything. And if you can't even tell for a given shot *whether* you've influenced the dice, then you can't tell anything.
So do the experiment. Roll 1080 times and indicate which rolls are the ones that exhibit "influence" as you define it. How many did you have? Over 5? Over 50? Over 500? All of them?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
July 1st, 2015 at 1:20:59 AM
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Dicesitter can you logically explain any of this?Quote: AxelWolfPerhaps you missed this.
You said people are far better than you. Millions should be disappearing from craps tables. Yet most casinos let you freely set and "influence" the dice and then comp you afterwards.
Only slightly better would be incredible, Far better = Millions.
Why don't we have ONE person, one video, something, anything that can prove anything?
Why can't someone show us it's possible under the best conditions? 2 feet away from back wall. A mechanical device, dropping the dice from the same spot?
----------------------------------------
Why do you keep bringing up what Ahigh did or didn't do? Is it more misdirection or something? It's like when a kid gets caught doing something he tattles on his sibling for something else.
-------------------------------------------
I agree if DI was possible your shot is more consistent of what DI should look like. Back when DI was all the rage and people blindly believed it worked. You would've had people following you around like a god. Yes you have a nice LOOKING shot. It's obvious you have spent lots of time on it. You're probably underestimating yourself. Unfortunately you're probably overestimating what's possible. People who claim to be good DI's with a winning record don't shoot as well as what I seen in the video you provided us.
There's some really smart guys out there who originally believed in and participated in DI they actually won more than the average american makes over a course of a year or so. But they seen the slow motion videos, listened to reason and logic, and put there dedication and brains elsewhere.
I'm not here to dog on you I'm here to see if anyone can come up with something that can either prove
If you took whoever is considered the best DI in the world (not the luckiest) and he played for as many hours as I assume you have, and actually kept track, I bet he would be losing as well.
------------------------------------------
Again with some added questions,.
You said people are far better than you. If so, Millions should be disappearing from craps tables. Yet most casinos let you freely set and "influence" the dice and then comp you afterwards. I haven't heard of anyone making any real money from DI. Explain the logic here. (perhaps all the good DI's are red chippers)
Only slightly better would be incredible, Far better would = Millions. ( At the least more people would be getting tossed out, or major changes would be taking place.
Why don't we have ONE person, one video, something, anything that can prove anything? Why has nothing materialize?
Why can't someone show us it's possible under the best conditions? 2 feet away from back wall. A mechanical device, dropping the dice from the same spot?
Dicesitter can you logically explain any of this?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 1st, 2015 at 4:31:08 AM
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Dice control only works in theory, there are too many limitations.
July 1st, 2015 at 5:44:26 AM
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Oh boy, please don't use the word contro.l Dicesitter will lecture us again. It's influence.Quote: Dicenor33Dice control only works in theory, there are too many limitations.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 1st, 2015 at 6:58:35 AM
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Well
Why don't we have a start and finish to this.
1......Have you seen the videos of dice finish I posted on you tube......????
dicesetter
Why don't we have a start and finish to this.
1......Have you seen the videos of dice finish I posted on you tube......????
dicesetter
July 1st, 2015 at 8:25:31 AM
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Axelwolf
I understand your not trying to dog me.... I am retired so talking about craps is fun for me... even with you.
You need to explain something to me..... it is rather simple...
Why in the world cant you get it through your skull that dice influence can vary from day to day
given the fact that the dice have to be thrown by people, and like any other physical activity, the people vary
from day to day.
You assume that any change in any other activity can be accepted,, they had an off day, they were sick etc..
but when it comes to craps.... there is no off day, it is all variance... that makes no sense at all.
You allow that the dice can be different, you allow that the tables can be different, you allow that tables can be longer
or shorter, but you don't allow that the guy throwing them from day to day can be different.... it blows my mind that
a guy as intelligent as you seem to be cant understand the very basic human concept of variance on a daily basis inherent in
the thrower..... there are days my shot is dead on and I get good results, there are days like Friday night where I could
not for the life of me get my dice to react the way I wanted them to in germs of bounce.. that is not variance it is me, I
was not good enough.
Variance I accept and that would be if my shot was constant, some times I win and some times I lose, but any change would be
due to the normal variance of the game...your lucky or not. If my shot was always the same and I win or lose depending on
luck... well I am on your side 100% but that's not what I see in my case.
I expect that is the same with others.
dicesetter
I understand your not trying to dog me.... I am retired so talking about craps is fun for me... even with you.
You need to explain something to me..... it is rather simple...
Why in the world cant you get it through your skull that dice influence can vary from day to day
given the fact that the dice have to be thrown by people, and like any other physical activity, the people vary
from day to day.
You assume that any change in any other activity can be accepted,, they had an off day, they were sick etc..
but when it comes to craps.... there is no off day, it is all variance... that makes no sense at all.
You allow that the dice can be different, you allow that the tables can be different, you allow that tables can be longer
or shorter, but you don't allow that the guy throwing them from day to day can be different.... it blows my mind that
a guy as intelligent as you seem to be cant understand the very basic human concept of variance on a daily basis inherent in
the thrower..... there are days my shot is dead on and I get good results, there are days like Friday night where I could
not for the life of me get my dice to react the way I wanted them to in germs of bounce.. that is not variance it is me, I
was not good enough.
Variance I accept and that would be if my shot was constant, some times I win and some times I lose, but any change would be
due to the normal variance of the game...your lucky or not. If my shot was always the same and I win or lose depending on
luck... well I am on your side 100% but that's not what I see in my case.
I expect that is the same with others.
dicesetter
July 1st, 2015 at 9:08:34 AM
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Quote: dicesitter...there are days my shot is dead on and I get good results...
Does that mean you now claim that DI actually, demonstrably works?
Or is it just confirmation bias?
The road to riches can be bumpy.
"What, me worry?"
July 1st, 2015 at 9:40:21 AM
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Quote: dicesitterit blows my mind that
a guy as intelligent as you seem to be cant understand the very basic human concept of variance on a daily basis inherent in
the thrower..... there are days my shot is dead on and I get good results, there are days like Friday night where I could
not for the life of me get my dice to react the way I wanted them to in germs of bounce..
Everyone understands this. What I don't understand is how you measure "dead on" and "get good results" -- and that's because you're not actually measuring them.
The scant results I've seen you discuss have been related to dice totals. You post something like "5, 8, 3, 8, 6, 6, 9, 5" and say "see, I'm influencing the dice."
That's bunk. If you have any skill at all, of course it will vary. Just like a baseball pitcher's skill will vary from one game to the next. But a baseball pitcher's performance can be quantified. K/9, BABIP, etc.
What is your percentage of "successfully influenced" dice throws?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
July 1st, 2015 at 10:27:31 AM
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wow!Quote: MathExtremistThat's bunk.
you can not be talking about a type of bed (or you could be)
i say
do
never
let an over 50 type get under your skin
laugh it off and have fun with it
hehe
i B a little shy here...
where did you learn that word?
B U N K
Grateful Dead
maybe (they are in the news here in CA)
I Heart Vi Hart
July 1st, 2015 at 10:34:21 AM
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Ah, the Dead.
R.I.P., Jerry.
The Dead are reconstitued and currently performing; five concerts or so.
"Not all who wander are lost."
R.I.P., Jerry.
The Dead are reconstitued and currently performing; five concerts or so.
"Not all who wander are lost."
"What, me worry?"
July 1st, 2015 at 10:42:46 AM
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I missed the video you guys are talking about. Can someone please repost it?
July 1st, 2015 at 11:17:09 AM
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Mathextremist
Thank you,
Some one finally admitted that what ever influence a person has can vary....that
is a good start.
dicesetter
Thank you,
Some one finally admitted that what ever influence a person has can vary....that
is a good start.
dicesetter
July 1st, 2015 at 1:20:29 PM
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Not sure where he or anyone learns anything however I believe I have used it a few times on the forum, so have others. Probably some kind of slang. Its the perfect word for betting systems.Quote: mustangsallywow!
you can not be talking about a type of bed (or you could be)
i say
do
never
let an over 50 type get under your skin
laugh it off and have fun with it
hehe
i B a little shy here...
where did you learn that word?
B U N K
Grateful Dead
maybe (they are in the news here in CA)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
July 1st, 2015 at 2:55:39 PM
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No, I said *if* you have any influence at all, of course it will vary. If you don't have any biasing influence, that lack of influence will not vary. It just remains at "none," as in "you have no ability to influence the dice on any roll at all."Quote: dicesitterMathextremist
Thank you,
Some one finally admitted that what ever influence a person has can vary....that
is a good start.
The expected distribution of dice results is widely variable under both unbiased randomness and under your alleged varying levels of influence. You've already told us that you can't rule out luck, so I can conclude that either (a) you don't have any skill whatsoever and are simply experiencing the natural variance in unbiased random results, or (b) you may have some level of biasing influence but it's not enough overall to distinguish your results from what would be expected from anyone else.
In short, if you can't tell the difference between skill and luck, it's luck. If you had enough skill, you'd know it and it would be quantifiable.
The experiment I suggested earlier would enable you to test this distinction. If you were to throw 1080 throws with a constant set and throwing with as consistent technique as you can muster, and for each roll record the start and end upward face of each die individually, plus the start and end forward face, you would have enough data to answer the question "are my dice throws that start with similar conditions consistent with the distribution of equally-likely die faces or can I reject that hypothesis?"
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
July 1st, 2015 at 5:38:47 PM
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Math
Again you are not being accurate with what I said...
I did not say I thought it was all luck, I said luck helps particularly on long rolls.
I offered to compare my rolls with your rolls, I offered to compare my rolls with Ahigh's rolls
I offered to suggest doing so and then changing sets to see if there is a different reaction to the
new in sets in my rolls and the rolls of others.
You keep saying if I do have some level of influence it would not be enough to differ from anyone
else...... but then you wont allow anyone else to roll to compare to mine.
Just a matter of course, when practice I indicate the X Y Z axis start and finish. I isolate certain
numbers on the z axis and then record where they end up in the final up position of the dice which is
the X axis... The point of all this is because if you can get one of the isolated numbers on the Z
access to end up on the X axis, you then can play with the set and move the starting location of
the other isolated number to get certain others number more often than you should.
I am willing to work with any one to see what happens, but I wont be the only one doing all the
work.
dicesetter
Again you are not being accurate with what I said...
I did not say I thought it was all luck, I said luck helps particularly on long rolls.
I offered to compare my rolls with your rolls, I offered to compare my rolls with Ahigh's rolls
I offered to suggest doing so and then changing sets to see if there is a different reaction to the
new in sets in my rolls and the rolls of others.
You keep saying if I do have some level of influence it would not be enough to differ from anyone
else...... but then you wont allow anyone else to roll to compare to mine.
Just a matter of course, when practice I indicate the X Y Z axis start and finish. I isolate certain
numbers on the z axis and then record where they end up in the final up position of the dice which is
the X axis... The point of all this is because if you can get one of the isolated numbers on the Z
access to end up on the X axis, you then can play with the set and move the starting location of
the other isolated number to get certain others number more often than you should.
I am willing to work with any one to see what happens, but I wont be the only one doing all the
work.
dicesetter
July 1st, 2015 at 6:53:54 PM
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Quantify. How many rolls? What is your observed probability that a face that starts on the Z axis comes to rest on the X, Y, and Z axis, respectively? Is it something other than 1/3 for each?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
July 1st, 2015 at 7:52:33 PM
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Now see that is a good question
dicesetter
dicesetter
July 1st, 2015 at 9:16:29 PM
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Math
I have a fishing tournament this weekend so I have to leave early tomorrow so I did
a brief two set sample. 25 rolls each sample.
first set isolated 1/6/6/1 on z axis
numbers 1-4, 1-5.5-3,1-2.1-3,1x5,6-6,2-3,4-5,5-5,1-4,1-6,1-4,1-5,6-3,1-4.4-6,6-5,3-3,2-4,6-3,2-6,6-2,4-2,6-3
37.5 % of the time 1-6/6-1 ended up on the x axis 5x2 up 6 times and 3/4 only 4 times
second set.. isolated the 2/5 5/2 on the z axis
numbers 2-6,1-1,5-1,5-5,2-3,5-4,1-5,2-3,6-6,1-2,2-5,5-4,3-3,6-3,5-5,2-1,6-4,4-4,5-6,4-6,5-5,5-6,2-1,6-3,5-1
37.5% of the time the 5/2 2/5 moved to the x axis,,, 6/1 8 times and 3/4 2 times.
dicesetter
I have a fishing tournament this weekend so I have to leave early tomorrow so I did
a brief two set sample. 25 rolls each sample.
first set isolated 1/6/6/1 on z axis
numbers 1-4, 1-5.5-3,1-2.1-3,1x5,6-6,2-3,4-5,5-5,1-4,1-6,1-4,1-5,6-3,1-4.4-6,6-5,3-3,2-4,6-3,2-6,6-2,4-2,6-3
37.5 % of the time 1-6/6-1 ended up on the x axis 5x2 up 6 times and 3/4 only 4 times
second set.. isolated the 2/5 5/2 on the z axis
numbers 2-6,1-1,5-1,5-5,2-3,5-4,1-5,2-3,6-6,1-2,2-5,5-4,3-3,6-3,5-5,2-1,6-4,4-4,5-6,4-6,5-5,5-6,2-1,6-3,5-1
37.5% of the time the 5/2 2/5 moved to the x axis,,, 6/1 8 times and 3/4 2 times.
dicesetter
July 2nd, 2015 at 6:41:29 AM
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So much work, that AP craps gig, IF IT EVEN EXISTS AT ALL.
If only you could get a large player advantage of a truly large denomination bet that was known and proven to actually work without having to be able to perform mathematical proofs as well as a PhD math student.
If only you could get a large player advantage of a truly large denomination bet that was known and proven to actually work without having to be able to perform mathematical proofs as well as a PhD math student.
aahigh.com
July 2nd, 2015 at 9:25:06 AM
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Quote: dicesitterI have a fishing tournament this weekend so I have to leave early tomorrow so I did
a brief two set sample. 25 rolls each sample.
I'm not interested in a brief two set sample. I'm interested in your quantitative analysis of the past seven years' of your data and why you believe it indicates you have a degree of influence that cannot be attributed to mere luck.
Quote:first set isolated 1/6/6/1 on z axis
I assume by "Z axis" you mean that you are holding the dice side-by-side and the Z axis is the axis that runs through both dice, parallel to the table, and perpendicular to the direction of the throw. In other words, the axis on which the dice rotate if you throw them with a little backspin.
Quote:37.5 % of the time 1-6/6-1 ended up on the x axis 5x2 up 6 times and 3/4 only 4 times
If X axis is the upward face of the dice when they come to rest, then it seems that your theory of dice influence is that the numbers you place on the Z axis will somehow turn face-up at the end of the roll. Is that it? Because that's entirely antithetical to the most common theory that you want to depress the frequency of axial numbers. In your case, you seem to suggest that you can take the numbers on the axis of rotation and increase their frequency of appearing face-up at the end of the roll. If you can do this, it would be a significantly stronger means of influencing the overall distribution than the common theory.
However, your math is incorrect. There is no integer number of rolls that is 37.5% of 25 rolls. I'm not sure exactly how you're counting here but you haven't done that part right.
Quote:second set.. isolated the 2/5 5/2 on the z axis
There is no need to do this. If you have the ability to make the die faces on the sides end up on the top, it doesn't matter what faces you put on the sides (unless you believe the dice are biased).
Anyway, the next step for you is to go back through your historical data and compute the observed probability of the faces on the Z axis ending on the X, Y, Z axis. Not new data, at least not unless you're going to provide a statistically significant sample. 50 rolls isn't it.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
July 2nd, 2015 at 9:49:17 AM
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Math
Just heading for the water.
just one comment for you.........go to H........
go find another lap dog.
dicesetter
wonder how many days I get off for that
I understand what 15 of 25 is, I figured if I put 40% in there
you would just accuse me of getting the exact number you said would
be relevant.
Just heading for the water.
just one comment for you.........go to H........
go find another lap dog.
dicesetter
wonder how many days I get off for that
I understand what 15 of 25 is, I figured if I put 40% in there
you would just accuse me of getting the exact number you said would
be relevant.
July 2nd, 2015 at 10:02:57 AM
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Quote: dicesitterMath
Just heading for the water.
just one comment for you.........go to H........
go find another lap dog.
dicesetter
wonder how many days I get off for that
I understand what 15 of 25 is, I figured if I put 40% in there
you would just accuse me of getting the exact number you said would
be relevant.
Just to bring it back for old times sake - {facepalm}
"I can do Math, but I choose to do it wrong in case I get accused of being right?" What a complete joke of a response. MathE -> I'd just stop bothering if I were you, you can go to a Cirque show if you want to see unfunny clowns.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
