House edge of combined bets = simple addition + multiplication?

I'm thinking of switching my pressing strategy from min Passline/Continuous Come (max odds) to larger Passline and Placing 6/8.
that way if I hit my win goal, I only have to wait till my passline hits then take everything down and walk away.

3/4/5x odds = .4% HE
Place 6/8 = 1.5%

Lets say the point = 5:
$10 flat/$40 odds -> $50 (80% of $ on table)
$6 each on 6/8 -> $12 (20% of $ on table)

so combined HE is approximately
(.4 x .8) + (1.5 x .2) = .62%?

Quote: 100xOdds

I'm thinking of switching from Passline/Continuous Come (max odds) to larger Passline and Placing 6/8.
that way if I hit my win goal, I only have to wait till my passline hits then take everything down and walk away.

3/4/5x odds = .4% HE
Place 6/8 = 1.5%

Lets say the point = 5:
$10 flat/$40 odds -> $50 (80% of $ on table)
$6 each on 6/8 -> $12 (20% of $ on table)

so combined HE is approximately
(.4 x .8) + (1.5 x .2) = .62%?

Your expected loss on the $10 PL is $0.141

Your expected loss on the $12 in total Place Bets, if you leave them up until resolved, is $0.1824

Your combined House Edge is (.1824 + .141)/22 = 0.0147 or 1.47% (Approx.)

If you construe Odds as bringing down the House Edge on the PL, (I don't, personally) then the House Edge on your total action is:

(.1824 + .141)/62 = 0.00521612903 or 0.5216% (Approx.)

hm.. I'm .1% off. (.62 vs .52)
so why didn't my math work out?

and what do you mean you don't construe odds as bringing down the HE?! Why don't you believe the math in this case?

Quote: Mission146

(.1824 + .141)/62 = 0.00521612903 or 0.5216% (Approx.)

how did you get an average bet of $62...

the pass/345x = $37 7/9
so you like to round up i see (C)

and did you use an approved method for it's calculation?


and i had to laugh too

$6 place bet on 6 & 8
should add lots of success to hitting a win goal (maybe feel-good bets, Sally)

i would make a $12 place 6 or
place 8 only,
not (knot) both

but I am Sally

even if I use .37%, I'm still off.

(.37 x .8) + (1.5 x .2) = .596%

Quote: mustangsally

how did you get an average bet of $62...

the pass/345x = $37 7/9
so you like to round up i see (C)

and did you use an approved method for it's calculation?

In the OP, he specifically asked about a Point of Five, that wasn't an average bet, it was the bet he asked about. $10 + $40 Odds + $12 Place.

Quote: Mission146

In the OP, he specifically asked about a Point of Five, that wasn't an average bet, it was the bet he asked about. $10 + $40 Odds + $12 Place.

ooohhhhhhhhh....

so you're using 4x odds for your calcs instead of 3/4/5x?

Quote: 100xOdds

hm.. I'm .1% off. (.62 vs .52)
so why didn't my math work out?

and what do you mean you don't construe odds as bringing down the HE?! Why don't you believe the math in this case?

Hold on, I was just doing the five.

Okay, your PL has a fixed HE of .0141

(10 * .0141) = 0.141

There's a 14/36 chance your total action is 10 on PL and 12 on Places:

(12 * .0152 * 14/36) = 0.07093333333

There's a 10/36 chance your total action is 10 on PL and 6 on Place 6/8:

(10/36 * 6 * .0152) = 0.02533333333

Your average bet (not counting odds) is going to be: (12/36 * 10) + (6/36 * 22) + (8/36 * 22) + (10/36 * 16) = 16.3333333333

Your total Expected Loss is: 0.141+0.07093333333+0.02533333333 = 0.23726666666

The combined House Edge (not counting odds) is:

0.23726666666/16.33333333333 = 0.01452653061 or 1.452653061%

If you factor in the Odds as affecting the House Edge, simply take the Expected Loss and divide by the new average bet:

(12/36 * 10) + (6/36 * 52) + (8/36 * 62) + (10/36 * 66) = 44.1111111111

0.23726666666/44.1111111111 = 0.0053788413 or 0.53788413%

Quote: 100xOdds

and what do you mean you don't construe odds as bringing down the HE?! Why don't you believe the math in this case?

I believe it brings down the House Edge relative to your total action, because it does, I just don't believe it actually brings down the House Edge on your Pass Line bet. It's really something of a Philosophical argument whether or not to strictly construe them as separate bets, which I do, because the Odds bet is not a required bet.

I like to compare it to Video Poker with the Double-Up feature enabled. Imagine you were playing 9/6 Jacks or Better, let's say for quarters, and you intended to double up every pay until you hit $1,000, (or as close as possible without going over) would you construe that as reducing the House Edge on the Video Poker game? I wouldn't. However, I agree that the House Edge relative to the overall action is reduced that way.

Some bets you would make have a House Edge (the game itself) and some do not, (The Double-Up) but I consider them two separate bets. Same thing with the Pass Line and the Odds.

Quote: 100xOdds

I'm thinking of switching my pressing strategy from min Passline/Continuous Come (max odds) to larger Passline and Placing 6/8.
that way if I hit my win goal, I only have to wait till my passline hits then take everything down and walk away.

3/4/5x odds = .4% HE
Place 6/8 = 1.5%

Lets say the point = 5:
$10 flat/$40 odds -> $50 (80% of $ on table)
$6 each on 6/8 -> $12 (20% of $ on table)

so combined HE is approximately
(.4 x .8) + (1.5 x .2) = .62%?

Forget about the combined HE; consider the ev.
With pass/continuous come, the ev is going to be -.014 times the average amount of all your pass/come bets.

If you change, the ev will be -.014 times the average pass bet plus -.0152 times the average amount of your resolved place bets.

When you make continuous come bets, you average 2.38 come decisions for every pass decision, so 3.38 times your average bet amount times -.014 is your ev.
(I did a study using 0 through 6 maximum come bets; it's pretty rare to actually get all the numbers covered with come bets.)

So, everything depends on how much money you bet on the line bets vs. the place bets. The odds bets do not affect the ev at all.
In any case, the difference between .01414 and .01515 is not that big, about a penny for every $12 bet.

To lower your expected loss, bet less on the flat and more on odds, if you can find a casino allowing 10x odds for $5 line.
$10 pass, 3, 4, 5x odds: avg. bet $37.78, ev -$.14, standard deviation $49.16
$5 pass, 10x odds: avg. bet $38.33, ev -$.07, standard deviation $54.04

For 120 bets, you save about $8.50 in expected loss with about an additional $50 of variance.
(The above figures are for flat bet amounts, but the more you press, the more the difference between $5 pass and $10 pass starting amounts.)

Quote: goatcabin

When you make continuous come bets, you average 2.38 come decisions for every pass decision,

557/165 pass/come decisions per roll, on average so
392/165 looks good for come decisions

Quote: goatcabin

(I did a study using 0 through 6 maximum come bets; it's pretty rare to actually get all the numbers covered with come bets.)

how rare?
pretty?
thank you

1 in 10,000 rolls?
1 in 1,000
1 in 100
1 in 6 (this is what every place bettor thinks in me opinion that laugh at come bettors, like Alan Mendelson laughs)

i had a 1000 roll sim completed many many times and showed 7.1 times per 1000 rolls
(maybe i re-run it as i do not remember doing this)

the bases were loaded

go Angels!
bet the OVER and bank the wins!
Mully

Quote: mustangsally

Quote: goatcabin

(I did a study using 0 through 6 maximum come bets; it's pretty rare to actually get all the numbers covered with come bets.)

how rare?
pretty?
thank you

1 in 10,000 rolls?
1 in 1,000
1 in 100
1 in 6 (this is what every place bettor thinks in me opinion that laugh at come bettors, like Alan Mendelson laughs)

i had a 1000 roll sim completed many many times and showed 7.1 times per 1000 rolls
(maybe i re-run it as i do not remember doing this)

Here's what I got:
19950 rolls with no come bets on a number
18735 rolls with one
17173 rolls with two
15115 rolls with three
12846 rolls with four
9832 rolls with five
6350 rolls with six, so .64%

I ran this for zero through six maximum come bets.