Don't Pass is better than Pass. Here's why
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September 27th, 2014 at 9:58:38 AM
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(besides the slight math advantage of DP over pass)
I'm switching to the darkside.
when I play Pass and get on a hot roll, I press about 40% of my winnings.
after the roll is over, there goes 40% of my profits. (and the casino just recovered some of their $ back.)
and it's stupid to take down your bets in the middle of the shooter's roll and just leave the Pass/Come flat bets there.
THe way I play Don't Pass is 1 big bet equivalent to the $ risked using 3point Betty strategy in Pass.
ie: $10min, 3/4/5x odds
with 3point Betty, I have an avg of $150 on the table
with Don't Pass, I have $20 DP/120 odds.
yeah, I know.. set a win limit. once you hit that limit, have the discipline to yell 'OFF' while playing Pass/Come on a hot roll.
I did that.
but it SUCKS when the shooter keeps on making #'s while i'm waiting for a '7' to kill my flat bets. (he made at least 6+ more #s.)
even tho I made my win limit, I didn't have that much fun.
Thus it has turned me to the Darkside.
I'm switching to the darkside.
when I play Pass and get on a hot roll, I press about 40% of my winnings.
after the roll is over, there goes 40% of my profits. (and the casino just recovered some of their $ back.)
and it's stupid to take down your bets in the middle of the shooter's roll and just leave the Pass/Come flat bets there.
THe way I play Don't Pass is 1 big bet equivalent to the $ risked using 3point Betty strategy in Pass.
ie: $10min, 3/4/5x odds
with 3point Betty, I have an avg of $150 on the table
with Don't Pass, I have $20 DP/120 odds.
yeah, I know.. set a win limit. once you hit that limit, have the discipline to yell 'OFF' while playing Pass/Come on a hot roll.
I did that.
but it SUCKS when the shooter keeps on making #'s while i'm waiting for a '7' to kill my flat bets. (he made at least 6+ more #s.)
even tho I made my win limit, I didn't have that much fun.
Thus it has turned me to the Darkside.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
September 29th, 2014 at 6:11:16 AM
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Welcome to the darkside. It's a small, but exclusive club. Just remember that winning on the darkside is a grind. And you must have the discipline to limit your losses against a hot shooter.
Darth
Darth
7-out, line away, pay the don't.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esEcwAWi6dk
September 29th, 2014 at 10:05:05 AM
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Quote: 100xOdds(besides the slight math advantage of DP over pass)
I'm switching to the darkside.
when I play Pass and get on a hot roll, I press about 40% of my winnings.
after the roll is over, there goes 40% of my profits. (and the casino just recovered some of their $ back.)
Recently I did well with darkside betting by limiting my action the same as rightside, where I only want two numbers to resolve at once normally.
Previously, if I built up numbers to resolve on the darkside, I was thinking "hey this has to be good, odds on my side, pile em up". It's clear to me now, though, that it is still too much in action, I was getting burned.
Do that and you should be alright.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 29th, 2014 at 9:19:01 PM
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Darkside
Sally has about the best option foir darkside wins. Avoid the come out crap and lay against
the point. You have a 59-41 advantage. However i would not lay the 4 or 10 because you
only get half of your lay... that more than offsets the 59-41 advantage.
dicesetter
Sally has about the best option foir darkside wins. Avoid the come out crap and lay against
the point. You have a 59-41 advantage. However i would not lay the 4 or 10 because you
only get half of your lay... that more than offsets the 59-41 advantage.
dicesetter
September 30th, 2014 at 6:15:47 AM
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Quote: dicesitterDarkside
Sally has about the best option foir darkside wins. Avoid the come out crap and lay against
the point. You have a 59-41 advantage. However i would not lay the 4 or 10 because you
only get half of your lay... that more than offsets the 59-41 advantage.
dicesetter
huh?
don't pass has a lower house edge.
~.3% vs 2.44% for Laying the 4/10 (higher HE for 5/9 and 6/8)
you're bucking the math?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
September 30th, 2014 at 8:19:50 AM
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actually I think you have to watch Sally, she says things just to get you going [esp males]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 30th, 2014 at 9:09:36 AM
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not all craps games offered in every casino in the world uses dice. many here in CA use cards, and that offers +EV for those that like +EVQuote: odiousgambitactually I think you have to watch Sally, she says things just to get you going [esp males]
I do not get male shooters going...
I just ask them if they are going to 7out before hitting their point, right after they establish their point
they get themselves going (and my bankroll going up)
and, imo, it is not at all difficult to win your Lay bets way more than a one time probability says
I say it is real easy (but I do understand males will not understand this, and that is OK too)
============================================
but from a book I have not read but looked at in Google Books
The Complete Idiot's Guide to Gambling Like a Pro
By Stanford Wong, Susan Spector
Craps (with 2 dice and I figure NO cards) is under the chance and skill heading
here
S Wong says ...
"knowing HOW and WHEN to place your bets is a workable skill"...
for me (Idiot)
In my opinion, I believe too
I mean
The Complete Idiot's Guide to Gambling Like a Pro
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 30th, 2014 at 10:10:09 AM
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Quote: darthvaderWelcome to the darkside. It's a small, but exclusive club. Just remember that winning on the darkside is a grind. And you must have the discipline to limit your losses against a hot shooter.
Darth
Darkside for 3 years and one month. Have won 26 out of 35 trips. I know, pure luck but better to be lucky VS depleted bankroll! I also know about "THE LONG RUN"....
For me, (Doey/Don't) Don't pass w/full odds. (Almost always full odds at least) No high fives just low fives with my friends after a win. The way I play the math says I should lose 1000 an hour or more. The dice haven't listened to the math yet.
There was one time I was down, so just before my flight I went to down to the table at Encore and watched for a few minutes saw a lady make a point then another one so I said why not. Put 25 on the pass with full odds (Which is about 1000 less than my usual bet on the don't) 320 across. 40 min later walked with 7k. Left at least 2k on the table. Dammit!
What gets me is all the other 10 players won but with 500, 1000, 1500 and another guy 2000 and the others with between 300 and 800. why don't players try to maximize these rolls? There were a few players just putting money on the pass with odds? There were probably 100 numbers rolled. Yes, a win is a win I know but sheeesh.
So in conclusion, you really never know but darkside IS the way to go if you are playing a game like craps. Barring any unforeseen situation like a 40 min roll of course. Hate having a good shooter roll 6 or 8 numbers and leaving all your money on the table when the 7 comes up.
September 30th, 2014 at 10:29:28 AM
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Dark side is the way. My most recent craps session was on an empty table. I put my matchplay coupon on the don't pass, rolled aces, took my money and chirped out. I was so super stoked on myself. The best dice control is not picking them up.
100% risk of ruin
September 30th, 2014 at 10:40:51 AM
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Mustangally
I still think your method of playing the dont is a good way.
Now having said that, i think we need to play sometime..... we each take the same amount of starting money
and as i throw you can lay against any point i attempt to make, i will do the same for you and we will see
who has the most money at the end.
that would be fun
The next best thing is just take money from the casino, that is not bad either.
Dicesetter
I still think your method of playing the dont is a good way.
Now having said that, i think we need to play sometime..... we each take the same amount of starting money
and as i throw you can lay against any point i attempt to make, i will do the same for you and we will see
who has the most money at the end.
that would be fun
The next best thing is just take money from the casino, that is not bad either.
Dicesetter
March 7th, 2016 at 8:45:23 AM
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Mustangsally, is the above quote by dicesetter an accurate description of your preferred don't strategy? i.e. not laying odds when the established point is either a 4 or 10? From the replies, I can't tell what the number crunching suggests is the best bet using this strategy. I believe this is aka Patrick's Richocet although he doesn't address the issue of not laying the 4 or 10.
Thank you group for any insights you can provide.
Thank you group for any insights you can provide.
March 7th, 2016 at 8:55:17 AM
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I liked that post, very diplomatic it seemed. But was still a challenge (did I get that wrong?). Go do it, have some fun, do 't play for big bucks, play for fun. Just 2FQuote: dicesitterMustangally
I still think your method of playing the dont is a good way.
Now having said that, i think we need to play sometime..... we each take the same amount of starting money
and as i throw you can lay against any point i attempt to make, i will do the same for you and we will see
who has the most money at the end.
that would be fun
The next best thing is just take money from the casino, that is not bad either.
Dicesetter
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
March 7th, 2016 at 9:36:59 AM
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I do not make any don't pass or don't come bets.Quote: eclecticMustangsally, is the above quote by dicesetter an accurate description of your preferred don't strategy? i.e. not laying odds when the established point is either a 4 or 10?
They are major sucker bets, imo.
I Lay against the established point most times and sometimes Lay against all the possible box numbers on the come out roll as
1 Seven causes me to win all 6 of my Lay bets.
remember this from the world's top gambling/math expert S. Wong
"knowing HOW and WHEN to place your bets is a workable skill..."
I have that skill... most do not and never will (so it is)
I just born that way
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
March 7th, 2016 at 10:21:08 AM
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My personal Don't system is similar, except I still sort of play the come-out, and I bet differently, and I never max odds, and it goes on and on about the differences.
OK so Wow, Waiting for a point, then laying against it? That has to be the rudest and most in your face form of Don'ting I've encountered to date! I have never seen that one before. From what I read earlier it appears you are trying to psych them out by asking "7" questions during the roll? Im still laughing, never seen that one either. And, that actually trumps my first statement.
But seriously,
Question for Sallys play:
1-What do you do when the shooter is hitting points?
2-What is your martingdale or bailout strategy? I see Don'ters get smoked all around me by maxing odds and leaving in a huff after three big misses.
3-How many points can you ride out or do you?
4-If everyone at the table is generally getting one or two points then out, what do you do? Anything different?
I found two things here I've never heard of:
*3 point Betty (in the pass-line)?
*Patricks richocet?
Anyone want to describe these?
OK so Wow, Waiting for a point, then laying against it? That has to be the rudest and most in your face form of Don'ting I've encountered to date! I have never seen that one before. From what I read earlier it appears you are trying to psych them out by asking "7" questions during the roll? Im still laughing, never seen that one either. And, that actually trumps my first statement.
But seriously,
Question for Sallys play:
1-What do you do when the shooter is hitting points?
2-What is your martingdale or bailout strategy? I see Don'ters get smoked all around me by maxing odds and leaving in a huff after three big misses.
3-How many points can you ride out or do you?
4-If everyone at the table is generally getting one or two points then out, what do you do? Anything different?
I found two things here I've never heard of:
*3 point Betty (in the pass-line)?
*Patricks richocet?
Anyone want to describe these?
March 7th, 2016 at 10:51:09 AM
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Not Sally, but you swerved into wanting further clarification.
I'm assuming that Sally does not like the DP/DC because of the 12. Wizard has a post on that subject. The richocet is simply waiting for the come out roll, laying odds on that number, then placing a DC. If the DC# travels remove the odds portion on the first bet, and have two numbers working while awaiting the 7. It's a hedge of sorts. As the name suggests a 7 out 'back at you' is optimal, winning both bets. Recall there was a poll taken and those responders thought the number of rolls a shooter is most often libel to 7P0 is two rolls.
Sally, sounds like you've suggested the possibility of adding an important third element in the equation along with DI and playing the don't: the skill of betting.
Appreciate your valauble insights.
I'm assuming that Sally does not like the DP/DC because of the 12. Wizard has a post on that subject. The richocet is simply waiting for the come out roll, laying odds on that number, then placing a DC. If the DC# travels remove the odds portion on the first bet, and have two numbers working while awaiting the 7. It's a hedge of sorts. As the name suggests a 7 out 'back at you' is optimal, winning both bets. Recall there was a poll taken and those responders thought the number of rolls a shooter is most often libel to 7P0 is two rolls.
Sally, sounds like you've suggested the possibility of adding an important third element in the equation along with DI and playing the don't: the skill of betting.
Appreciate your valauble insights.
March 7th, 2016 at 10:53:40 AM
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Sorry, got confused. You only win one (1) bet in the above description.
March 7th, 2016 at 10:59:33 AM
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In the Ricochet, you do not "lay odds" on the come out number. You make a lay bet against the point. And for the other poster, there is nothing the least bit "rude" about laying against the point. I've been doing it for more than 30 years with never even a peep or glance. Now about the Don't Come bets, that's another story.Quote: eclecticThe richocet is simply waiting for the come out roll, laying odds on that number, then placing a DC. If the DC# travels remove the odds portion on the first bet, and have two numbers working while awaiting the 7.
March 7th, 2016 at 11:49:51 AM
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Quote: SanchoPanzaAnd for the other poster, there is nothing the least bit "rude" about laying against the point. I've been doing it for more than 30 years with never even a peep or glance.
You must play in Canada or somewhere like that -- more often than not, when I've seen a player lay the point, he'll get at least a few peeps or glares from other players.
March 7th, 2016 at 11:55:27 AM
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So it looks like Sally is playing Richocet off the point.
Im going to math this one up today.
Lets see, first point has a 59.6% chance of losing 59/99. Ill stop there. That's the same math as my system, teehee. I already do that.
I am happy I learned another viable system based on already solid math.
Now What is the 3-point betty?
Im going to math this one up today.
Lets see, first point has a 59.6% chance of losing 59/99. Ill stop there. That's the same math as my system, teehee. I already do that.
I am happy I learned another viable system based on already solid math.
Now What is the 3-point betty?
March 7th, 2016 at 12:00:50 PM
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Actually steadily in AC and LV. Only once in AC, at the forlorn Trump Marina a k a Trump's Castle, did it become really ugly. I would say that down on the Strip, most bettors don't fully realize what the lay and don't bets are. And those who do are sophisticated enough to appreciate that we're not really playing on the house's side. Off the strip, the prevailing reaction seems to be the quite typical courtesy of the ever friendly Nevadans. Especially if toking the dealers and cocktail waitresses. The Canadians, I have found, join Californians, Puerto Ricans and Panamanians in not fully understanding and definitely not appreciating don't betting.Quote: RSYou must play in Canada or somewhere like that -- more often than not, when I've seen a player lay the point, he'll get at least a few peeps or glares from other players.
March 7th, 2016 at 12:23:58 PM
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I'm gonna ask here too cause it looks like discussion moved to this thread. On the C-E bet if you bet $2 on the C-E and the shooter hit 11 do you get 7:1 on the $2 so $14 + your $2 back for $16 total or 7:1 on $2 plus $1 (half your bet) to get $15, $14 plus $1 back?
I am trying to make sure the information on Wikipedia is correct.
I am trying to make sure the information on Wikipedia is correct.
March 7th, 2016 at 1:03:26 PM
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Quote: valoemI am trying to make sure the information on Wikipedia is correct.
So how about going to the Wizard of Odds pages on Craps? Instead of asking what has already been answered? Screw Wikipedia, you have the expert right on these sites.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
March 7th, 2016 at 1:58:05 PM
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I think Miss Sally is throwing some curve balls.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 7th, 2016 at 2:18:17 PM
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Quote: DeMangoSo how about going to the Wizard of Odds pages on Craps? Instead of asking what has already been answered? Screw Wikipedia, you have the expert right on these sites.
Answer is not on there for C and E bet
March 7th, 2016 at 2:26:50 PM
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My guess at this stage is that by laying odds after the come out point, she doesn't have to worry about the:
7, 11, or 12
Also, a lot less hassle w/chips instead of constantly putting dual bets on the P/DP line + another DC (which she thinks is a bad bet).
Now application of said strategy regards the when and how to bet is a different matter.
Patrick claims there isn't that much difference except the vig for the lay, but of course I'd like to hear from her: or others.
7, 11, or 12
Also, a lot less hassle w/chips instead of constantly putting dual bets on the P/DP line + another DC (which she thinks is a bad bet).
Now application of said strategy regards the when and how to bet is a different matter.
Patrick claims there isn't that much difference except the vig for the lay, but of course I'd like to hear from her: or others.
March 7th, 2016 at 2:52:03 PM
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when the point established is a 4 or 10Quote: rushdlLets see, first point has a 59.6% chance of losing 59/99. Ill stop there.
it has a 66.67% chance of losing
I am slightly over 73% lifetime winning me Lay4 or Lay10 bets
(that is due to my skill level in knowing WHEN to bet, not HOW to bet)
The 5 or 9 has a 60% chance to lose
so sweet
the 6 or 8 are nothing real special
but still lose at a rate of 54.5%
no one can force me to Lay against every point.
I am a professional and pick my spots
S Wong
math and gambling expert, imo of course, knows
"knowing HOW and WHEN to place your bets is a workable skill
that can greatly influence how much money you get to take home"
nuff said
I still made my millions just playing the pass with 345x odds after the negotiation.
Lay bets always win on any 7 where the
dpass and dcome can win or lose on a 7
I have way more fun making Lay bets
luck has nothing to do with that
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
March 7th, 2016 at 4:52:46 PM
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Thank you Sally for your reply. As you probably know, Patrick discusses both the Do/Don't dual bet on the comeout versus the ricochet lay bet after the comeout.
Also, when playing the right side, he claims there are advantages to Place betting versus Come betting, based mostly on choices and flexibility. It would appear you have adopted that philosophy for playing the don't side. Are you a DI, or is it just intuition when deciding when? The 3,4,5x odds strategy, as I understand it, not only reduces the HE, but also the swings or volatility in the equity curve/bankroll.
Also, when playing the right side, he claims there are advantages to Place betting versus Come betting, based mostly on choices and flexibility. It would appear you have adopted that philosophy for playing the don't side. Are you a DI, or is it just intuition when deciding when? The 3,4,5x odds strategy, as I understand it, not only reduces the HE, but also the swings or volatility in the equity curve/bankroll.
March 7th, 2016 at 4:55:21 PM
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That was for ANY point thrown instead of "a" specific one.
I run my calcs off a different line of thinking , but real close. Too bad odius has me figuring about half this is BS, Haha. But math knows. You should answer my other question though I need a bit of help on how you think you would be betting those lays. How much you putting on a lay4 lay5 or lay6?
site gave me this for "Place To Lose":
Pay off are usually 5 to 11 (4 or 10), 5 to 8 (5 or 9), 4 to 5 (6 or 8) is what the internet said. And they have terrible odds best being 1.82 worst being 3.03.
But
Pay off 5 to 10 (4 or 10) 5% vig, 4 to 6 (5 or 9) 5% vig, 5 to 6 (6 or 8) 5% vig is what I think we do here. Is that right?
I run my calcs off a different line of thinking , but real close. Too bad odius has me figuring about half this is BS, Haha. But math knows. You should answer my other question though I need a bit of help on how you think you would be betting those lays. How much you putting on a lay4 lay5 or lay6?
site gave me this for "Place To Lose":
Pay off are usually 5 to 11 (4 or 10), 5 to 8 (5 or 9), 4 to 5 (6 or 8) is what the internet said. And they have terrible odds best being 1.82 worst being 3.03.
But
Pay off 5 to 10 (4 or 10) 5% vig, 4 to 6 (5 or 9) 5% vig, 5 to 6 (6 or 8) 5% vig is what I think we do here. Is that right?
Last edited by: rushdl on Mar 7, 2016
March 7th, 2016 at 5:58:23 PM
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Quote: valoemAnswer is not on there for C and E bet
Bets not bet. It is a two bet bet.
Really? No Any Craps? No mention of Horn Bets including the yo? No mention that if you make different multiple one roll bets one may lose?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
March 8th, 2016 at 12:18:19 AM
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Quote: eclecticThank you Sally for your reply. As you probably know, Patrick discusses both the Do/Don't dual bet on the comeout versus the ricochet lay bet after the comeout.
Also, when playing the right side, he claims there are advantages to Place betting versus Come betting, based mostly on choices and flexibility. It would appear you have adopted that philosophy for playing the don't side. Are you a DI, or is it just intuition when deciding when? The 3,4,5x odds strategy, as I understand it, not only reduces the HE, but also the swings or volatility in the equity curve/bankroll.
but john patrick is clueless.....following his ramblings would be like listening to guatemala's plans for world domination.
get second you pig
March 8th, 2016 at 5:32:55 AM
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Thomas Carlyle
“Every man is my superior in that I may learn from him".
OD, I try and learn from everyone, even if that accentuates the negative, as your comment would suggest. For example, in reading his book, I learned about the ricochet strategy. .
“Every man is my superior in that I may learn from him".
OD, I try and learn from everyone, even if that accentuates the negative, as your comment would suggest. For example, in reading his book, I learned about the ricochet strategy. .
March 8th, 2016 at 6:05:18 AM
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Quote: eclecticThomas Carlyle
“Every man is my superior in that I may learn from him".
OD, I try and learn from everyone, even if that accentuates the negative, as your comment would suggest. For example, in reading his book, I learned about the ricochet strategy. .
But be careful what you learn from that man. In the world of gambling, the thing to learn is that it is one man out to get the best of the other*. Sometimes that comes down to selling him a worthless book.
*This is not a bad thing necessarily. We enjoy participating in sports when the other team tries hard to beat us, that's 100% desirable. But a gambler needs to know what team he is on. The house is not on your team. Other people you meet who want to bet are not on your team; they may or may not be neutral entities even if no bet is proposed. There is a big Hustle going on out there in the world, don't be a Mark
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
March 8th, 2016 at 6:32:31 AM
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The maths do not play out, just psychic betting. Oh well thanks for the forward looking statements!
March 8th, 2016 at 10:43:05 AM
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Are World/Whirl bets required to be bet in multiples of 5 in Vegas? Can you bet in multiples of 6?
March 8th, 2016 at 6:29:07 PM
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A world is 5 separate bets. You can make one of those 5 separate bets $2
Have you looked up the answers yet in the Wizard of Odds website?
Have you looked up the answers yet in the Wizard of Odds website?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
March 8th, 2016 at 6:35:45 PM
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Gotcha some of the website does not answer that exact question.
March 9th, 2016 at 3:50:55 AM
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I couldn't get anyone to do it when a thread went around on how to do WoO website better, but they need links to some of their old stuff
One thing to do is to go to the game you are interested in and add "basics" in the location field after the last slash, like
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/ this link is handy
add 'basics' and get:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics
now you have the old page with a lot of good stuff
[or somebody tell me where that link is]
One thing to do is to go to the game you are interested in and add "basics" in the location field after the last slash, like
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/ this link is handy
add 'basics' and get:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics
now you have the old page with a lot of good stuff
[or somebody tell me where that link is]
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 6th, 2017 at 8:49:55 AM
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thx!Quote: odiousgambitI couldn't get anyone to do it when a thread went around on how to do WoO website better, but they need links to some of their old stuff
https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics
now you have the old page with a lot of good stuff
yes, I agree WoO's craps page needed cleaning up the last time I looked, which was probably last year.
(been playing VP since then.)
your link simplifies everything.
hm.. always thought there wasn't much of a difference between pass and don't pass.
at 3/4/5x odds, pass is .37% HE while don't pass is .28%.
almost .1% difference.
before playing VP, I would have said close enough.
but in playing VP, I learned .1% is pretty important.
This proves via math why Dark is better, whereas the reason I stated in my OP was just feeling that Dark is better.
ie: After a long roll, seeing all that $ on the table going to the House when the 7 shows.
It leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
it's like the House gets a rebate on my wins,
thus in reality, the actual Pass/Come HE is much much much higher than .37% because of that rebate???
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Nov 6, 2017
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
November 6th, 2017 at 9:25:49 AM
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I'm told the house edge drops to 0.06 percent if you are at 100x but, fortunately for the casinos, few bet at that level consistently. Otherwise that famed light bill would never get paid. And what is worse, they would not be able to ply you with free booze served by half-naked Tray Lizards.
Yes, the 'Dark Side' is always better than the Right Way player but I don't think that .37 percent should really be a deciding factor.
Yes, the 'Dark Side' is always better than the Right Way player but I don't think that .37 percent should really be a deciding factor.
November 6th, 2017 at 1:59:40 PM
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then why do you think Dark is better if not the math?Quote: FleaStiffYes, the 'Dark Side' is always better than the Right Way player but I don't think that .37 percent should really be a deciding factor.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice).
Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
November 6th, 2017 at 3:34:50 PM
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Quote: 100xOddsthen why do you think Dark is better if not the math?
the math is minimal and a little misleading, as the amount of action you are allowed on the dark side odds bet is higher
as wizard puts it, " I think that makes the don't pass look deceptively significantly better. The main reason it is less is the odds multiple is relative to your bet taking odds, and [relative to ] the win when laying odds." my edit in brackets
per already cited link
what he means I think is that in order to make things simple as far as payout, more is allowed on the free odds, which after all affect variance but not EV
Last edited by: odiousgambit on Nov 7, 2017
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
November 6th, 2017 at 4:20:25 PM
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Once you get under 10 basis points for a table game I think you’re splitting hairs. Just do the math ... playing $10 on the pass line costs you 25 cents per hour more than playing the don’t pass line assuming 50 bets per hour, no matter how you make your odds bets.
25 cents is nothing regardless of how the percentages come out on combined odds bets.
25 cents is nothing regardless of how the percentages come out on combined odds bets.
It’s all about making that GTA
December 20th, 2017 at 6:58:15 PM
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Quote: mustangsally
not all craps games offered in every casino in the world uses dice. many here in CA use cards, and that offers +EV for those that like +EV
Sally
Craps involves standardized dice on a standardized "Craps" table.
What you described are card games that simulate Craps. And E-Craps are slot machines that simulate Craps.
December 20th, 2017 at 7:00:43 PM
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Quote: CAD2Craps involves standardized dice on a standardized "Craps" table.
What you described are card games that simulate Craps. And E-Craps are slot machines that simulate Craps.
Please explain your last point.
The older I get, the better I recall things that never happened
December 20th, 2017 at 7:46:31 PM
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Quote: billryanPlease explain your last point.
E-Craps are electro-mechanical devices aka slot machines to simulate the game of Craps just like there are electro-mechanical devices (also slot machines) to simulate the game of Roulette.
The State of California does not allow the game of Craps (or Roulette) in casinos so games were created to simulate Craps (or Roulette).
To call E-Craps the same as Craps is disingenuous and is equally disingenuous to call +EV card Craps as Craps.
December 20th, 2017 at 8:11:49 PM
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Quote: mustangsallywhen the point established is a 4 or 10
it has a 66.67% chance of losing
I am slightly over 73% lifetime winning me Lay4 or Lay10 bets
...
Lay bets always win on any 7 where the
dpass and dcome can win or lose on a 7
I have way more fun making Lay bets
luck has nothing to do with that
Sally
I find your results hard to believe for the game of Craps (with dice), especially when you quoted the 73% number -- 73% is just about 3 out of 4.
I took a course in college where we spent the whole semester on stochastic calculus. The professor would start each class with: Given a mean of mu, a std dev of sigma, and Brownian motion, it can be shown... Then we spent the rest of the class deriving the proof. As a result, I have a good sense of random events or results.
If you apply logic, the law of large numbers tells us that in the game of Craps (with dice), you will be a net loser (over time) on the Lay 4 or Lay 10 bet due to about a 2.4% house edge. That house edge is a gravitational force that is present on every roll.
Earlier in this thread, you mentioned you played +EV card Craps, a game that simulates Craps. +EV card Craps isn't Craps due the house edge changing on each "roll" due to dependent events (in the real Craps game, the house edge is immutable). So if you made money from +EV card Craps, then that makes sense since it's +EV.
