Craps Math
September 7th, 2014 at 10:18:50 PM
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This may have been discussed before, I can't find thread if it has. How does one calculate the odds for the ATS Bets? Thanks
September 7th, 2014 at 10:57:21 PM
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removed
silly
Sally
silly
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 8th, 2014 at 4:26:37 AM
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I don't know if I've ever seen 174-to-1. It seems the Wizard and you both analyze the bet based on that payoff.
I always see 176-for-1 and/or 175-to-1.
I always see 176-for-1 and/or 175-to-1.
aahigh.com
September 8th, 2014 at 7:18:58 AM
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It may well be thatQuote: AhighI always see 176-for-1 and/or 175-to-1.
It is not in SoCal casinos I go to, just the 4 point Fire Bet
at 175 to 1
edge : -0.07464410
standard deviation: 12.72817173
at 174 to 1
edge : -0.07990180
standard deviation: 12.65585257
The ATS bonus craps probability calculations are still fun to do, except by hand, in my opinion
simulations are fun too, well maybe not the waiting part
and speaking of simulations Ahigh... done yet?
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 8th, 2014 at 4:33:23 PM
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Quote: mustangsally
I think there is another that miplet shows his worksheet too, maybe nots
I do not see it at the moments
have fun
Sally
Just finished mine. All Tall Small.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
September 8th, 2014 at 4:43:46 PM
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Quote: mipletJust finished mine. All Tall Small.
Just another way of saying ATS is fun, Fire Bet blows!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
September 8th, 2014 at 5:01:51 PM
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nice, nice and niceQuote: mipletJust finished mine.
did not mean to add pressure
I remembered you did the Fire Bet with making the bet after the first point is established
I thought that was the ATS
a big problem when I think
math is fun!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 8th, 2014 at 8:19:28 PM
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mustangsally
ATS is a great bet and alot of fun
Just got back from Laughlin and drove to vegas for a morning session and we hit
a fire bet, a small and an ATS for a very nice morning.
It is great fun to get lucky. (smiling) also wife hit 4 jacks on let it ride and i had straight
flush on paigow.... so it nicer to get lucky, lucky and lucky.
dicesetter
ATS is a great bet and alot of fun
Just got back from Laughlin and drove to vegas for a morning session and we hit
a fire bet, a small and an ATS for a very nice morning.
It is great fun to get lucky. (smiling) also wife hit 4 jacks on let it ride and i had straight
flush on paigow.... so it nicer to get lucky, lucky and lucky.
dicesetter
September 9th, 2014 at 12:18:36 AM
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Quote: dicesitterdrove to vegas for a morning session and we hit a fire bet, a small and an ATS for a very nice morning.
Usually craps is a bet of slim edges but fast action with a Stick's Patter about stepping up to the higher edged bets. If you take these side bets, you are upping the edges against yourself, but it IS fun if you win and somebody else is keeping track of it, so it really just gives craps players what Blackjack players have. A slim nick on the real game and a larger nick against them on the more exciting New Prize which will bring in a good bit more money IF it hits.
September 9th, 2014 at 11:28:39 AM
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Quote: mustangsallynice, nice and nice
did not mean to add pressure
I remembered you did the Fire Bet with making the bet after the first point is established
I thought that was the ATS
a big problem when I think
math is fun!
Sally
I just had to change a few numbers from my crapsless firebet spreadsheet. Put all four (firebet, crapless firebet, ATS, Hot Roller) of my craps side bets spreadsheets here. Any requests for other craps side bets?
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
September 9th, 2014 at 11:50:02 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffUsually craps is a bet of slim edges but fast action with a Stick's Patter about stepping up to the higher edged bets. If you take these side bets, you are upping the edges against yourself, but it IS fun if you win and somebody else is keeping track of it, so it really just gives craps players what Blackjack players have. A slim nick on the real game and a larger nick against them on the more exciting New Prize which will bring in a good bit more money IF it hits.
So what's a higher cost per roll? "One one one" as they call it on the all-tall-small or a $5 place bet on the five or the nine?
What has a higher volatility?
The reason that the ATS is taking over is because they are favored by gamblers.
The Palms is the only property I have heard of that is scared of the bet.
Just two nights ago at the Mandalay Bay, one of the dealers there started telling me about bets that are worry-some for the pit.
Those two games were the free bet blackjack, and the all-tall all-small.
The funny thing is that fear from the pit is actually advertisement for the bet. Especially when the fear for the bet is being genuinely represented by the casino.
There is a sweet spot for when the edge is low enough to feel like the gambler has a fighting chance.
Gambling has almost become a second priority here in Vegas; and definitely has for some casino owners such as Harrah's (I hate calling them Caesar's because I actually think Caesar's has earned their name in the gambling world).
I don't bet either the place bet on the 5 or 9, nor do I bet the all-tall all-small. But for someone who wants to get lucky, it's not a horrible deal.
Jerry's Nugget the game has become almost entirely about the all's. The players there absolutely LOVE that bet. But I think many of them switched from just hop bets.
aahigh.com
September 9th, 2014 at 12:50:09 PM
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Where can we find the crapless firebet? Or Hot Roller Craps?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
September 9th, 2014 at 12:59:31 PM
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Quote: DeMangoWhere can we find the crapless firebet? Or Hot Roller Craps?
Hot roller is / was(?) at Dover Downs. See https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/16283-hot-roller-craps-bet/
September 9th, 2014 at 1:27:13 PM
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Quote: AhighSo what's a higher cost per roll? "One one one" as they call it on the all-tall-small or a $5 place bet on the five or the nine?
What has a higher volatility?
The reason that the ATS is taking over is because they are favored by gamblers.
The Palms is the only property I have heard of that is scared of the bet.
Just two nights ago at the Mandalay Bay, one of the dealers there started telling me about bets that are worry-some for the pit.
Those two games were the free bet blackjack, and the all-tall all-small.
The funny thing is that fear from the pit is actually advertisement for the bet. Especially when the fear for the bet is being genuinely represented by the casino.
There is a sweet spot for when the edge is low enough to feel like the gambler has a fighting chance.
Gambling has almost become a second priority here in Vegas; and definitely has for some casino owners such as Harrah's (I hate calling them Caesar's because I actually think Caesar's has earned their name in the gambling world).
I don't bet either the place bet on the 5 or 9, nor do I bet the all-tall all-small. But for someone who wants to get lucky, it's not a horrible deal.
Jerry's Nugget the game has become almost entirely about the all's. The players there absolutely LOVE that bet. But I think many of them switched from just hop bets.
NTIM, not that it matters.
Laughlin, The Nugget was the only place in town that had any bonus bet and also the only casino that pays triple on the 12 field.
I talked with the pit about having and after two months removing the ats bet, they claim they got killed on it. The Nugget is also the only casino there that has vig on the win on the 4/10 and is automatic starting at ten dollars, [for the buy].
The Tropicana won't even let you set the dice. I think Alan was looking for a place like this?
The Tropicana recently purchased the River palms and is supposed to be open this month under new management, I could never seem to be there when they had either table games or craps open. It was a depressing place with lousy parking unless valet.
The river is very pretty however, with several places having views from the gaming floors.
September 9th, 2014 at 1:55:46 PM
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Petroglyph
While the HA is terrible on the bonus bets like the fire bet and the ATS , they are becoming the only
reason to play for many people.
As you and I found out Saturday, you can have some really good rolls but unless you start out betting large
you wont make enough to get you around the table till the next time you get the dice. And if you start out large
the short rolls will kill you.
I have no idea why this is, maybe it is the dice, maybe it is the tables, maybe my tolerance for loss
has changed, but it was much easier to come home
with a grand in your pocket years ago than it is today.
As far as the Topicana buying the River Palms, it will just be another place you cant play craps.
Dicesetter
While the HA is terrible on the bonus bets like the fire bet and the ATS , they are becoming the only
reason to play for many people.
As you and I found out Saturday, you can have some really good rolls but unless you start out betting large
you wont make enough to get you around the table till the next time you get the dice. And if you start out large
the short rolls will kill you.
I have no idea why this is, maybe it is the dice, maybe it is the tables, maybe my tolerance for loss
has changed, but it was much easier to come home
with a grand in your pocket years ago than it is today.
As far as the Topicana buying the River Palms, it will just be another place you cant play craps.
Dicesetter
September 9th, 2014 at 8:05:04 PM
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I say more funQuote: FleaStiff<snip> If you take these side bets, you are upping the edges against yourself, but it IS fun if you win
so
I have to disagree on this one
you say fun IF you win
no no
(you must be over 30)
playing craps = fun
winning while playing craps = more fun
always wear a helmet when surfing
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 9th, 2014 at 8:26:02 PM
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Oh noQuote: AhighSo what's a higher cost per roll? "One one one" as they call it on the all-tall-small or a $5 place bet on the five or the nine?<snip>
please do not simulate this for an answer Ahigh
I am still waiting on that last simulation you are working on
I can lend you my hammer and screwdriver for a small fee to assist you in completing your craps simulations
(I know you are over 30 and have lots of cash and your wife would love to see that Craps table out of your house too)
it was dark in the garage, so I took a quick photo and ran back into the house
my computer tools are dirty as I had to recently use them for some coding in R
the tool cleaner should be here this weekend to clean them (I am rich and can afford it)
and Ahigh
do not forget in your calculations to not use 1/216 for place 6 and 8 edge per roll
do not want to scare the sucker craps players away
think point rolls only
<hint> snot 165/557 </hint>
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 10th, 2014 at 2:23:49 AM
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aahigh.com
September 10th, 2014 at 8:27:54 AM
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3 very nice questions still unanswered and feeling neglectedQuote: Ahigh#1) So what's a higher cost per roll?
#2) "One one one" as they call it on the all-tall-small or a $5 place bet on the five or the nine?
#3) What has a higher volatility?
I will start with the edge per roll and ev for place 5 (same as place 9?)
The expected number of rolls for the ATS = 1/p - (1/p * p(win) )
where
p = prob of a 7 rolling (>0)
p(win) = the success of the bet probability
let us see who can get edge per roll values
no simulation required Ahigh
my attempt treating the ATS as one bet - as many I have seen play it this way. 1-1-1 to 10-10-10)
only 3 possible outcomes
win 243 or win 32 or lose 3
edge = -0.07662347
p(win) = 0.04745012
avg # of rolls per decision = 5.71529928
-0.07662347 / 5.71529928 = edge roll = -0.013406729
ev roll = -0.040220188
so if one has place bets working on the come out roll - a bad thing happens - the ev per roll is now higher than the ATS bet 1-1-1
that is how I see it in my opinion
expected value rules by house edge
only 3 possible outcomes
win 243 or win 32 or lose 3
edge = -0.07662347
p(win) = 0.04745012
avg # of rolls per decision = 5.71529928
-0.07662347 / 5.71529928 = edge roll = -0.013406729
ev roll = -0.040220188
so if one has place bets working on the come out roll - a bad thing happens - the ev per roll is now higher than the ATS bet 1-1-1
that is how I see it in my opinion
expected value rules by house edge
and I agree with you two, it is not nice to say you will run a craps simulation, and do,
produce results that contain errors (because of the code) and say you need to run a larger sim even that the results are close enough and never produce that sim.
I am still waiting as many others too
yes, I agree, a job not well done.
edge per roll for place 5 (accounts for not working on the come out roll - the way it is played)
1/25 * 10/36 * 392/557 = 196/25065 = 0.007819669
with $5 bet ev = 0.039098344
expanded thought:
edge per roll for place 6
1/66 * 11/36 * 392/557 = 49/15039 = 0.003258195
with $6 bet ev = 0.019549172
so 14/24 is the chance of making a place 6 & 8 (your one bet example as many craps players place both the 6 & 8)
ev place 6 & 8 = 0.039098344 = $5 place 5 ev
Eyes knows everys craps players knows this
please check my math as I did not use any tools, just my head
the ATS is the one bet (3 separate bets) that I have yet to win one time.
only time
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 10th, 2014 at 10:01:09 AM
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Quote: dicesitterPetroglyph
While the HA is terrible on the bonus bets like the fire bet and the ATS , they are becoming the only
reason to play for many people.
Any casino that take those two bets out are just sweating the money, they are not looking at the long term effect the bet has on the casino. Those two bets bring in players that would not play in some of those casino if it wasn't for those bets.
Players like to take a big gamble when they are playing, those bets give them that! The large pay-outs hook those type of players. The pencil pushers should all be made to take a class from the casino management teams that use to run the casinos in the good old days. They knew that there was going to be days that they lost, but they also knew that the players would come back and lose if they treated those players right.
Now days if a player is getting lucky they are trying to run them off, they don't even realize that if they want to win money they need players that will win every once in a while, the new way of thinking is everybody should just hand over their wallets when they walk in the door!
Quote: Ahigh
The reason that the ATS is taking over is because they are favored by gamblers.
The Palms is the only property I have heard of that is scared of the bet.
Just two nights ago at the Mandalay Bay, one of the dealers there started telling me about bets that are worry-some for the pit.
Those two games were the free bet blackjack, and the all-tall all-small.
The funny thing is that fear from the pit is actually advertisement for the bet. Especially when the fear for the bet is being genuinely represented by the casino.
I would like to hear there reasoning for taking out a bet that has a 25% house edge! The Plams is not the only casino that is scared of the the ATS and the fire bet, there have been casinos that have taking those bets out of the casinos.
Most casinos here in Vegas are all playing the ATS the wrong way, there is even one that changed the rules to suit the way they want it played. They will not allow you to re-bet the ATS once a seven is rolled. They must think that it changes the odds.
Here is the link to the bet and the way it should be played!
http://www.galaxygaming.com/games/table-games/bonus-craps/
I wish that I had a 25% advantage when I was playing craps, talk about bad casino management!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...!
You do good brada ..!
superrick
Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction
http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php
...
September 10th, 2014 at 10:57:06 AM
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thank you for the few you did changeQuote: mipletI just had to change a few numbers from my crapsless firebet spreadsheet.
always fun for me to see how others tackle (tickle) math problems
sure, okayQuote: mipletAny requests for other craps side bets?
how about a craps side bet that
pays 300 for 1, has a house edge under 10% and wins on average about every 99 dice rolls
could be a combo of points/# of numbers rolled and whatever you like too
now that is a bet I would make many times over
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 10th, 2014 at 6:52:13 PM
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Superrick
My guess as to why some smaller casinos have taken these bets out is that they have
made the game so hard for players, softer tables , no setting of dice and on and on
that they have no players so they are scared to death some one would actually
hit a fire bet.
I think another reason is there are fewer long rolls, so the only way they can lose is if
some gets hot and hits a fire bet or ATS.
Casino's are their own worst enemy, make it harder to play so you have less players,
fewer players mean less money on the table and less casino proift so they sweat the money,
make it harder to play and less people play.
Circle jerk
dicesetter
My guess as to why some smaller casinos have taken these bets out is that they have
made the game so hard for players, softer tables , no setting of dice and on and on
that they have no players so they are scared to death some one would actually
hit a fire bet.
I think another reason is there are fewer long rolls, so the only way they can lose is if
some gets hot and hits a fire bet or ATS.
Casino's are their own worst enemy, make it harder to play so you have less players,
fewer players mean less money on the table and less casino proift so they sweat the money,
make it harder to play and less people play.
Circle jerk
dicesetter
October 5th, 2014 at 12:43:20 AM
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Which way is better to bet?
$5 bet on pass line with full odds and a $5 come bet with full odds.
Or
$10 bet on pass line with full odds and no come bet?
I guess what I'm asking is if I am not max betting on my line bet, should I still play come bets or instead of placing come bets put it towards my line bet?
(the table is 3,4,5X odds and minimum bet $5)
$5 bet on pass line with full odds and a $5 come bet with full odds.
Or
$10 bet on pass line with full odds and no come bet?
I guess what I'm asking is if I am not max betting on my line bet, should I still play come bets or instead of placing come bets put it towards my line bet?
(the table is 3,4,5X odds and minimum bet $5)
October 5th, 2014 at 2:34:36 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyI say more fun
so
I have to disagree on this one
you say fun IF you win
no no
(you must be over 30)
playing craps = fun
winning while playing craps = more fun
always wear a helmet when surfing
Sally
Confused.
Over 30? Ancient and Doddering.
playing craps = fun ........ winning while playing craps = more fun. Agreed.
Helmet when surfing...thought this was some sort of humor but it seems that surfing helmets are indeed being sold to prevent concussions from hitting rocks or being hit by other boards, perhaps even wave action alone. I think its absurd.
October 5th, 2014 at 2:44:55 AM
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A Pass Line Bet is a bet that you must wait around for in order for it to be resolved.
If you want to twiddle your thumbs while waiting that is fine, many players want action in the interim.
So they do Come Bets which are the exact same as Pass Line bets, but use different "hockey pucks".
If you want to twiddle your thumbs while waiting that is fine, many players want action in the interim.
So they do Come Bets which are the exact same as Pass Line bets, but use different "hockey pucks".
October 5th, 2014 at 9:02:47 AM
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I guess I should of added, which way is straight up better for winning (not considering entertainment value). (I know what a come bet is and line bet and why they are played but I'm looking for straight up which way gives best winning results)
Does playing come bets when you haven't maxed out your line bet increase you chances of loosing? Like my mentality behind this is the more bets you make the higher the chance of you falling victim to the house edge, similarly to the idea of the more you flip a coin the closer it will represent 1:1 tails/heads. So instead of making two bets a line and a come bet, should I put the money I would normally put as come bet towards my line bet and only place one bigger bet?
In comparison would be playing roulette (outside) if I have $100, (lets say the max bet is $100 and minimum is $1) obviously it would be better to bet all $100 at once instead of sitting at the table playing $1 bets all night. By playing $1 bets you may get more entertainment value but in the long run you will eventually loose while playing a $100 bet gives you not to bad a chance to double up and walk away.
What I am asking is this the same for craps, should I make one big line bet and only make come bets when my line bet reaches the table max?
Does playing come bets when you haven't maxed out your line bet increase you chances of loosing? Like my mentality behind this is the more bets you make the higher the chance of you falling victim to the house edge, similarly to the idea of the more you flip a coin the closer it will represent 1:1 tails/heads. So instead of making two bets a line and a come bet, should I put the money I would normally put as come bet towards my line bet and only place one bigger bet?
In comparison would be playing roulette (outside) if I have $100, (lets say the max bet is $100 and minimum is $1) obviously it would be better to bet all $100 at once instead of sitting at the table playing $1 bets all night. By playing $1 bets you may get more entertainment value but in the long run you will eventually loose while playing a $100 bet gives you not to bad a chance to double up and walk away.
What I am asking is this the same for craps, should I make one big line bet and only make come bets when my line bet reaches the table max?
October 5th, 2014 at 9:59:25 AM
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Guest123, I play PL & one or two Come bets almost exclusively. And, I've asked the same question of myself. I'd rather have fewer chips on at least two numbers, if not three, rather than all the chips on one number. It simply increases the ways of winning vs. losing w/ the seven out, if that makes any sense. IOW, point is 6. The six has 5 ways to win vs. the seven's six ways. But, a come bet on the 5 increases the ways vs. the seven (5 ways + 4 ways = 9 ways vs. the seven's 6 ways). That's the theory.
But, when the 7 hits, all is lost, regardless if your money is divided between two or three bets vs. all your money on one bet. Also, only one of your two or three bets can win any one time, whereas the 7 wipes out all of them. This is in general because there are other aspects of come bets, such as losing on a come-out 7, etc., which I'm ignoring.
I like the PL & Come bets because they have the lowest house edge and provide a greater return for your money, depending on how many odds you put down. But, like any other bets, they lose, too, and you will lose betting this way; not consistently, any more than you will win consistently. It's all in how the dice are doing during your session. Good luck!
But, when the 7 hits, all is lost, regardless if your money is divided between two or three bets vs. all your money on one bet. Also, only one of your two or three bets can win any one time, whereas the 7 wipes out all of them. This is in general because there are other aspects of come bets, such as losing on a come-out 7, etc., which I'm ignoring.
I like the PL & Come bets because they have the lowest house edge and provide a greater return for your money, depending on how many odds you put down. But, like any other bets, they lose, too, and you will lose betting this way; not consistently, any more than you will win consistently. It's all in how the dice are doing during your session. Good luck!
October 5th, 2014 at 10:16:21 AM
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your Roulette example talks about doubling a starting bankrollQuote: Guest123What I am asking is this the same for craps, should I make one big line bet and only make come bets when my line bet reaches the table max?
I agree
One big bet is so much better than many smaller bets
The many smaller bets gives one a higher chance of winning something on any one roll,
buts that actual $$$$ winnings (can be calculated exactly too) is always lower than compared to one big bet
Think about the bankroll movements
a win moves the bank by $X and a loss moves it the other way by $Y
lots of little bets moves $X in small steps, a win target player knows to hit targets, bet big or just watch and keeps quiet, nicely
and one big don't pass bet with full odds will hit targets more often and faster than one big pass line bet
this is on average of course
get 2 million of your friends to test it out
you will see the difference in more happy don't pass player friends
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 5th, 2014 at 10:19:28 AM
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I like the Don't Pass & Don't Come bets because they have the lowest house edge and provide a greater return for your money,Quote: Sonny44I like the PL & Come bets because they have the lowest house edge and provide a greater return for your money, <snip>
only 1 can be right
and that makes the other not right
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 5th, 2014 at 10:22:14 AM
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Its always bet times house edge... and a trade off against time at table versus profit potential.
If you are making any odds bets, then your line bets should be whatever is required to let you make the odds bet that you desire to.
As to ONE big line bet, sure..... people will talk about that all night, whether you win or lose but prepared for it to be lose. Its not fun to wander around a casino with all your money gone.
I'd play just a pass line bet to see how things are going... then do some come bets as well. No guarantee how the table will be going or if it will stay that way, but why wed yourself to a particular strategy when its mainly a question of what do you most enjoy?
Remember, there is no long term at a craps table, just as there is no long term 1:1 at heads or tails. Only the CASINO can bet for the long term, no player can ever do it.
If you are making any odds bets, then your line bets should be whatever is required to let you make the odds bet that you desire to.
As to ONE big line bet, sure..... people will talk about that all night, whether you win or lose but prepared for it to be lose. Its not fun to wander around a casino with all your money gone.
I'd play just a pass line bet to see how things are going... then do some come bets as well. No guarantee how the table will be going or if it will stay that way, but why wed yourself to a particular strategy when its mainly a question of what do you most enjoy?
Remember, there is no long term at a craps table, just as there is no long term 1:1 at heads or tails. Only the CASINO can bet for the long term, no player can ever do it.
October 5th, 2014 at 10:32:40 AM
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yes, many players do mention this, even me.Quote: FleaStiffAs to ONE big line bet, sure..... people will talk about that all night,
There are times I could double my bankroll in one bet at 49.3% chance
but more times, I opt for just 49.1% chance for a little more time at the table
because playing craps = fun
and IF it does NOT = fun (like the Wizard of Odds says he does not like to play craps)
Then, go some place else for your fun
I'd play just a don't pass line bet to see how things are going...Quote: FleaStiffI'd play just a pass line bet to see how things are going...
it is well known that the "long run" = foreverQuote: FleaStiffRemember, there is no long term at a craps table.
you get tricky with a "long term"
oh, like buying life insurance
Sally
the house edge is there for every bet made (bottom line)
I Heart Vi Hart
October 5th, 2014 at 10:34:27 AM
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OK, finished?Quote: FleaStiffRemember, there is no long term at a craps table, just as there is no long term 1:1 at heads or tails.
Only the CASINO can bet for the long term, no player can ever do it.
buts 1 million players on a team could "do it" easily
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 5th, 2014 at 12:20:14 PM
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Quote: FleaStiffI'd play just a pass line bet to see how things are going...
Good advice, FS. I get too impatient when I start.
October 5th, 2014 at 1:56:26 PM
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But it does not meet with Mustang Sally's approval.Quote: Sonny44Good advice, FS.
October 5th, 2014 at 2:11:32 PM
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yes it doesQuote: FleaStiffBut it does not meet with Mustang Sally's approval.
it is the lowest on the scale
good, better or best
imo, I gave better advice
and left the best advice for someone else
Sally
calculating
must call the Angels manager before game time, I know him and he did meet me once too,
to make sure his team scores some runs tonight
I now have real $$$$.$$ bet on that game
I Heart Vi Hart
October 5th, 2014 at 2:14:05 PM
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>Angels manager
Sport? City?
Found it:
Baseball, Los Angeles (Anaheim).
Sport? City?
Found it:
Baseball, Los Angeles (Anaheim).
October 5th, 2014 at 3:01:46 PM
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$5 pass and 1 $5 come bet, both with 3,4,5x odds.....if you play like that, you'll have less variance than if you made 1 $10 pass bet with 3,4,5x odds and no come.
October 5th, 2014 at 3:10:00 PM
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Quote: RS$5 pass and 1 $5 come bet, both with 3,4,5x odds.....if you play like that, you'll have less variance than if you made 1 $10 pass bet with 3,4,5x odds and no come.
Forgive my ignorance, but why?
October 5th, 2014 at 4:32:02 PM
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I would think about the average $$.$$s bet each roll (or bet resolved)Quote: Sonny44Forgive my ignorance, but why?
a sequence of 4,7 has NO odds bet made for the come bet on roll#2
a sequence of 4,3,7 has NO odds bet made for the come bet on roll#2 or roll#3
right after a point is established, a 1/6 chance of NOT taking any come bet odds each roll after
because the come bet has either won or lost (never pushes),
never making it to second base (the point numbers that is)
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 5th, 2014 at 5:43:29 PM
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Thanks to everyone for the comments it has helped.
What's your guys suggestion; a don't pass line bet and then how many don't come bets?
Does it matter how many you play or is it just determined by what your willing to risk at any given session (assuming your maxing odds on everything).
I usually play 1 line bet and then two come bets (usually light side just because I like to win with the table but I know dark side is better for lowering house edge), is this optimal or is less or more come bets better?
What's your guys suggestion; a don't pass line bet and then how many don't come bets?
Does it matter how many you play or is it just determined by what your willing to risk at any given session (assuming your maxing odds on everything).
I usually play 1 line bet and then two come bets (usually light side just because I like to win with the table but I know dark side is better for lowering house edge), is this optimal or is less or more come bets better?
October 5th, 2014 at 11:13:19 PM
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yes you did find itQuote: FleaStiff>Angels manager
Sport? City?
Found it:
Baseball, Los Angeles (Anaheim).
and I am sure glad I stayed with the over bet (I had that winning feeling inside)
instead of betting the Angels would win the game
They were big winning at home during the year and with the over too
(KC did the over by themselves)
so my $5,500 over bet paid $5000 and it was decided by the 5th inning
that was sweet
and when I told my husband I bet 5 and 1/2 on the game, he thought I bet $550
back to...
buts, the new poster here asking about the best chance to double a bankroll still does not get get it, I thinks
one big bet is still way better than 2 small bets
an example
$10 pass with 345X odds will pay $70 total
say instead, we think we are better off winning 2 $5 bets easier than the one $10 bet
point = 6 and $25 odds is set up
$5 come, next roll exactly what we want, an 8
now another $25 odds bet
we have our two bets
remember the chances of us winning $70 with 1 bet = 5/11 (for 6 or 8) or 45.45%
to win the first bet = 10/16 = 62.5% (so far looks really good!)
to win the 2nd after the first is now 5/11 or 45.45% - still looks good
but both must happen to win $70
10/16 * 5/11 = 50/176 = 28.409090909090909090909090909091%
so what rather should one do?
make a pass and a come bet to have a 28.5% chance (I rounded up) to win $70
or one pass line bet to win $70 at a 45.45% chance
wow
too hard to decide here
remember too, both ways in this example lose the same amount
the difference is between night and day as I see it
"We're Off To See The Wizard"
Sally is nice
I Heart Vi Hart
October 6th, 2014 at 1:02:39 AM
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Quote: mustangsallyyes you did find itQuote: FleaStiff>Angels manager
Sport? City?
Found it:
Baseball, Los Angeles (Anaheim).
and I am sure glad I stayed with the over bet (I had that winning feeling inside)
instead of betting the Angels would win the game
They were big winning at home during the year and with the over too
(KC did the over by themselves)
so my $5,500 over bet paid $5000 and it was decided by the 5th inning
that was sweet
and when I told my husband I bet 5 and 1/2 on the game, he thought I bet $550
back to...
buts, the new poster here asking about the best chance to double a bankroll still does not get get it, I thinks
one big bet is still way better than 2 small bets
an example
$10 pass with 345X odds will pay $70 total
say instead, we think we are better off winning 2 $5 bets easier than the one $10 bet
point = 6 and $25 odds is set up
$5 come, next roll exactly what we want, an 8
now another $25 odds bet
we have our two bets
remember the chances of us winning $70 with 1 bet = 5/11 (for 6 or 8) or 45.45%
to win the first bet = 10/16 = 62.5% (so far looks really good!)
to win the 2nd after the first is now 5/11 or 45.45% - still looks good
but both must happen to win $70
10/16 * 5/11 = 50/176 = 28.409090909090909090909090909091%
so what rather should one do?
make a pass and a come bet to have a 28.5% chance (I rounded up) to win $70
or one pass line bet to win $70 at a 45.45% chance
wow
too hard to decide here
remember too, both ways in this example lose the same amount
the difference is between night and day as I see it
"We're Off To See The Wizard"
Sally is nice
But what are the chances of breaking even (or close to even)? I think that has to be considered too.
One big bet- 0% chance. You either win or loose.
Second scenario?
October 6th, 2014 at 2:06:40 AM
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Quote: mustangsally
and I am sure glad I stayed with the over bet instead of betting the Angels would win the game.
So you bet that the total number of points in the game would be over an amount that was stated in the bet.
Could you reprint the bet as it would have appeared on the bookie's site?
>so my $5,500 over bet paid $5000
and involved the return of your 5,500?
October 6th, 2014 at 8:32:44 AM
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I gave a simple example and there are countless numbers of examples that can be used and every possible paths to double or ruin should be considered, so I agree thereQuote: slackyhackyBut what are the chances of breaking even (or close to even)? I think that has to be considered too.
I was just after a winning probability as the poster mentioned
now,
I know you must be a pass/odds and place bet player from your system, I wonder why you went that route
instead of come bets and place bets and using "down with odds" after a win
another proven bankroll doubling method
you mean win one and lose one?Quote: slackyhackyOne big bet- 0% chance. You either win or loose.
Second scenario?
10/16 * 6/11 would be one way I think of (60/176) for the example I used
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 6th, 2014 at 9:31:26 AM
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points sounds funny for american baseballQuote: FleaStiffSo you bet that the total number of points in the game would be over an amount that was stated in the bet.
teams score runs
a run
I did not use a bookieQuote: FleaStiffCould you reprint the bet as it would have appeared on the bookie's site?
I emailed a friend to make the bet for me in Las Vegas as he had mentioned before he was going to be betting on the game too
he bet more than I did and won both of his bets
here is what I looked at covers.com
the final score
yes yesQuote: FleaStiff>so my $5,500 over bet paid $5000
and involved the return of your 5,500?
so that means drinks and an Angels loser party will be on little me!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 6th, 2014 at 9:41:13 AM
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Thanks Sally that makes allot of sense and I understand now the math behind it, so I can start figuring out my own scenarios. Thanks again.
October 6th, 2014 at 9:43:08 AM
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K. Tnx for the graphics. I'll go over this more carefully when I get back home. (Its more profitable to panhandle in the hot part of the day).
Yeah, points and downs is football and runs is baseball. (Did you know a "marker on the play" has nothing at all to do with hi-liters?)
I just know that you can bet by scoring above or below an expected number of points/runs expressed as an ever-changing number known as 'the line' or "the spread" or you can bet by having the total number of points/runs exceed a stated amount although you may still have to have the correct team win.
Yeah, points and downs is football and runs is baseball. (Did you know a "marker on the play" has nothing at all to do with hi-liters?)
I just know that you can bet by scoring above or below an expected number of points/runs expressed as an ever-changing number known as 'the line' or "the spread" or you can bet by having the total number of points/runs exceed a stated amount although you may still have to have the correct team win.
October 6th, 2014 at 10:23:56 AM
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Quote: Guest123Thanks Sally that makes allot of sense and I understand now the math behind it, so I can start figuring out my own scenarios. Thanks again.
Guest123, realize that the kind of math Sally gives you is "the fine math" of craps. IOW, all that goes out the window when you walk up to a table. Try it both ways, with minimum bets. See how it goes. The point is, neither method is going to be a consistent winner. Neither will be a consistent loser.
The only thing I can say, and Sally has acknowledged this, if you take down your odds if either the 6 or 8 wins, you'll end the roll a winner. That's the good thing about the odds on PL & Come bets: you can add or take them down, any time, just like place bets. And, remember: the 7 wipes out the 6 & 8 just as effectively as any other bet. It doesn't matter how your money is distributed.
October 6th, 2014 at 10:51:24 AM
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your last statement can not be trueQuote: Sonny44Guest123, realize that the kind of math Sally gives you is "the fine math" of craps.
IOW, all that goes out the window when you walk up to a table.
a $10 pass with 345X odds wins $70
this does not go out the window
the chances of a win are specific to the point number for that bet
3/9 or 4/10 or 5/11
that too does not go out the window
so, exactly
what goes out the window?
nice suggestion.Quote: Sonny44Try it both ways, with minimum bets. See how it goes.
The point is, neither method is going to be a consistent winner. Neither will be a consistent loser.
wincraps comes to mind to try it a million times each way
hmmm
a method that can produce a win rate of 45.45% vs a method that can produce a win rate of 28.5%
I say one wins more money way more often than the other (fun)
the longer one does play craps
sure, in any one session (part of the one lifetime session) one can win 2 bets 3 times in a row with a chance to win one time of 28.5%
I still take the 45.45% to my bank instead
that is my opinion
thank you for sharing yours
and I also factor in the fun part of winning and winning more
more and more often
but it will never, over a lifetime of play, wipe out those bets 100% of the timeQuote: Sonny44And, remember: the 7 wipes out the 6 & 8 just as effectively as any other bet. It doesn't matter how your money is distributed.
or even 90% of the time
or even 80 % of the time
or even 70% of the time
it continues in the next chapter
that is why a Lay bet, imo, is far superior to any other craps bet
it wins so often, me likes it
It always wins on any 7
and that 7 is the most likely number to roll, even with 21st century casino dice
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
October 6th, 2014 at 11:50:34 AM
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Sally, Sally, Sally. You complicate the issue beyond comprehension. All Guest123 needs to know is that when he joins a game, it's how the dice roll when his money is on the table. All he needs to know is that the 7 appears before the 6 & 8, etc. He bets according to that and what his buy-in is. Nothing more. You can simulate out to 10 million, 20 million, infinity. It's irrelevant when you're at the table with your $100, $200, etc., buy-in.
The only math he needs to know is that the HA is lowest on the PL, Come, DP, DC. Whether he wants to put his bet on one number or several numbers doesn't matter. The eternal question in craps is, "Will the 7 appear on the next roll?" No one knows, or ever will know, the answer to that question. That's why it's gambling.
The only math he needs to know is that the HA is lowest on the PL, Come, DP, DC. Whether he wants to put his bet on one number or several numbers doesn't matter. The eternal question in craps is, "Will the 7 appear on the next roll?" No one knows, or ever will know, the answer to that question. That's why it's gambling.
