wudged
wudged
Joined: Aug 7, 2013
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December 27th, 2013 at 9:43:18 AM permalink
I visited Dover Downs casino yesterday and saw a new bet called Hot Roller Craps.

I looked around but couldn't find anything online about it. I tried to figure out the edge myself and am coming up with -0.707075916.. I hope my calculations are way off...

The card has a terrible explanation of how the bet works, and I'm not sure I can do much better, but it's kind of a combination of the All Small/All Tall/All or Nothing at All bets and the Fire bet. The 6 box/point numbers are marked on the layout, along with the dice combinations that make up that number (as shown on the card.) The box person is responsible for marking each combination.

So 4 is divided into 1-3 and 2-2, 5 is 1-4 and 2-3, 6 is 1-5, 2-4, 3-3.. and the same for 8, 9, and 10. The dice have to hit every combination of a number, and then that number is marked as "complete." Any 7 (seven-out or come-out natural) resolves the bet. You must "complete" at least 2 numbers to get a payout. The pay table is:


Completed numbers Payout
<2 -1
2 5 to 1
3 10 to 1
4 20 to 1
5 50 to 1
6 200 to 1


I played for about 2.5 hours and saw 2 numbers get hit twice (nobody bet it these times) and never anything more. This bet was receiving almost no action. One dealer said earlier in the day all 6 had been hit on a $5 bet for a $1000 payout.

Here are images of the card. Sorry for the quality; I put it in my pocket and forgot about it so it's a bit beat up. The min/max was 1-25.
Front: http://tinypic.com/r/10xrbjq/5
Back: http://tinypic.com/r/10hq9eg/5
miplet
miplet
Joined: Dec 1, 2009
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December 27th, 2013 at 10:36:28 AM permalink
Looks interesting. If someone else doesn't figure it out my Monday, I'll do the math.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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December 27th, 2013 at 11:21:48 AM permalink
Here are my results based on a quick simulation.

Completed Points Pays Probability Return
6 200 0.000412 0.082424
5 50 0.002219 0.110966
4 20 0.007519 0.150382
3 10 0.021192 0.211924
2 5 0.056294 0.281471
1 -1 0.160625 -0.160625
0 -1 0.751738 -0.751738
Total 1.000000 -0.075196


So, house edge of 7.52%.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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December 27th, 2013 at 12:35:17 PM permalink
interesting.. so it's much better house edge than the firebet.
and no w2-g if you hit the top bet
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
98Clubs
98Clubs
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December 27th, 2013 at 5:14:31 PM permalink
Also Interesting: all 6 numbers is about the same odds as 43 rolls no-7.
Recent epitaph: Found dead by a Pokemon Go Player
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:08:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are my results based on a quick simulation.

I was scratching my head trying to come up with formulas. I'm reassured to see that Mike had to do a simulation. And nice to see that the edge isn't unreasonable.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition.
wudged
wudged
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:20:45 PM permalink
The edge isn't unreasonable but a 8.7% hit rate will keep enough people away. If all 6 paid more or 1 paid even money (with slightly smaller payouts on the other numbers) then I can see more people betting it.

The Fire bet only pays out 1.1% of the time, but the 999:1 payout for all 6 is a lot more alluring than 200:1.

I was also thinking about ways you could hedge this bet, and could only come up with one thing that puts it into JP territory. Hope for easy 4 or easy 10 to be the last dice combination to complete all 6 numbers, lay the number to hedge the hot roller bet, and then hedge the lay with a hardway bet. LOL! If the easy way comes, you lose the lay and the hard way, but win all 6 on the hot roller. 7 comes you win the lay but lose the hardway, and still get paid for 5 completed numbers on hot roller. Hard way comes you lose the lay but win the hardway, and then replace the lay and start over.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:38:57 PM permalink
Quote: wudged

I visited Dover Downs casino yesterday and saw a new bet called Hot Roller Craps.

I looked around but couldn't find anything online about it.

Sorry you had to see it.
Maybe In Bet Gaming is not so proud of it. or maybe they are and they think this will dominate Craps tables all over the world?

I played this in WinCraps for a NBA basketball game duration.
Crap.

The bet has nothing to do with the game of Craps or even popular bets that can be made in Craps..
Is not exciting or even fun at all, for me,
I mean who cares a 4 rolls 1-3 or 2-2 unless the hardway is bet.

and someone somewhere got a kick out of having 14 combinations of the dice roll before a 7.
well, good for them

My $400 Buy4 could not care less ;)

This is an awful bet IMO
and it forces box to track it. that is really great if that is true.

would probably do much better as a bet in Sic Bo
now that game needs a multi-roll bet to gain some popularity.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
GWAE
GWAE
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:43:34 PM permalink
couldn't
#freevarmenti
98Clubs
98Clubs
Joined: Jun 3, 2010
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December 27th, 2013 at 8:16:59 PM permalink
Couldn't agree more 7Craps... useless bet, difficult to track, just a friggin nightmare.
Tall-Small-All would be better, jeez.
Recent epitaph: Found dead by a Pokemon Go Player

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