wudged
wudged
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December 27th, 2013 at 9:43:18 AM permalink
I visited Dover Downs casino yesterday and saw a new bet called Hot Roller Craps.

I looked around but couldn't find anything online about it. I tried to figure out the edge myself and am coming up with -0.707075916.. I hope my calculations are way off...

The card has a terrible explanation of how the bet works, and I'm not sure I can do much better, but it's kind of a combination of the All Small/All Tall/All or Nothing at All bets and the Fire bet. The 6 box/point numbers are marked on the layout, along with the dice combinations that make up that number (as shown on the card.) The box person is responsible for marking each combination.

So 4 is divided into 1-3 and 2-2, 5 is 1-4 and 2-3, 6 is 1-5, 2-4, 3-3.. and the same for 8, 9, and 10. The dice have to hit every combination of a number, and then that number is marked as "complete." Any 7 (seven-out or come-out natural) resolves the bet. You must "complete" at least 2 numbers to get a payout. The pay table is:


Completed numbers Payout
<2 -1
2 5 to 1
3 10 to 1
4 20 to 1
5 50 to 1
6 200 to 1


I played for about 2.5 hours and saw 2 numbers get hit twice (nobody bet it these times) and never anything more. This bet was receiving almost no action. One dealer said earlier in the day all 6 had been hit on a $5 bet for a $1000 payout.

Here are images of the card. Sorry for the quality; I put it in my pocket and forgot about it so it's a bit beat up. The min/max was 1-25.
Front: http://tinypic.com/r/10xrbjq/5
Back: http://tinypic.com/r/10hq9eg/5
miplet
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December 27th, 2013 at 10:36:28 AM permalink
Looks interesting. If someone else doesn't figure it out my Monday, I'll do the math.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Wizard
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December 27th, 2013 at 11:21:48 AM permalink
Here are my results based on a quick simulation.

Completed Points Pays Probability Return
6 200 0.000412 0.082424
5 50 0.002219 0.110966
4 20 0.007519 0.150382
3 10 0.021192 0.211924
2 5 0.056294 0.281471
1 -1 0.160625 -0.160625
0 -1 0.751738 -0.751738
Total 1.000000 -0.075196


So, house edge of 7.52%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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December 27th, 2013 at 12:35:17 PM permalink
interesting.. so it's much better house edge than the firebet.
and no w2-g if you hit the top bet
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
98Clubs
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December 27th, 2013 at 5:14:31 PM permalink
Also Interesting: all 6 numbers is about the same odds as 43 rolls no-7.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
DJTeddyBear
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:08:55 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are my results based on a quick simulation.

I was scratching my head trying to come up with formulas. I'm reassured to see that Mike had to do a simulation. And nice to see that the edge isn't unreasonable.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
wudged
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:20:45 PM permalink
The edge isn't unreasonable but a 8.7% hit rate will keep enough people away. If all 6 paid more or 1 paid even money (with slightly smaller payouts on the other numbers) then I can see more people betting it.

The Fire bet only pays out 1.1% of the time, but the 999:1 payout for all 6 is a lot more alluring than 200:1.

I was also thinking about ways you could hedge this bet, and could only come up with one thing that puts it into JP territory. Hope for easy 4 or easy 10 to be the last dice combination to complete all 6 numbers, lay the number to hedge the hot roller bet, and then hedge the lay with a hardway bet. LOL! If the easy way comes, you lose the lay and the hard way, but win all 6 on the hot roller. 7 comes you win the lay but lose the hardway, and still get paid for 5 completed numbers on hot roller. Hard way comes you lose the lay but win the hardway, and then replace the lay and start over.
7craps
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:38:57 PM permalink
Quote: wudged

I visited Dover Downs casino yesterday and saw a new bet called Hot Roller Craps.

I looked around but couldn't find anything online about it.

Sorry you had to see it.
Maybe In Bet Gaming is not so proud of it. or maybe they are and they think this will dominate Craps tables all over the world?

I played this in WinCraps for a NBA basketball game duration.
Crap.

The bet has nothing to do with the game of Craps or even popular bets that can be made in Craps..
Is not exciting or even fun at all, for me,
I mean who cares a 4 rolls 1-3 or 2-2 unless the hardway is bet.

and someone somewhere got a kick out of having 14 combinations of the dice roll before a 7.
well, good for them

My $400 Buy4 could not care less ;)

This is an awful bet IMO
and it forces box to track it. that is really great if that is true.

would probably do much better as a bet in Sic Bo
now that game needs a multi-roll bet to gain some popularity.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
GWAE
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December 27th, 2013 at 7:43:34 PM permalink
couldn't
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
98Clubs
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December 27th, 2013 at 8:16:59 PM permalink
Couldn't agree more 7Craps... useless bet, difficult to track, just a friggin nightmare.
Tall-Small-All would be better, jeez.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
Wizard
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December 28th, 2013 at 8:44:05 AM permalink
Here is my write up at Wizard of Odds. Based on a larger simulation, I've adjusted the house edge to 7.50% (down from 7.52%).
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
miplet
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December 30th, 2013 at 1:12:11 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is my write up at Wizard of Odds. Based on a larger simulation, I've adjusted the house edge to 7.50% (down from 7.52%).


And here is my analysis using the same method I used for doing the fire bet (2^14 states instead of 2^6):
PointsProbabilityPaysReturn
00.7516771933-1-0.7516771933
10.1606831552-1-0.1606831552
20.0562873436950.2814367185
30.02119189666100.2119189666
40.007528312681200.1505662536
50.002219893807500.1109946903
60.00041220470672000.08244094133
1-0.07500277814
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
wudged
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December 30th, 2013 at 7:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: miplet

Quote: Wizard

Here is my write up at Wizard of Odds. Based on a larger simulation, I've adjusted the house edge to 7.50% (down from 7.52%).


And here is my analysis using the same method I used for doing the fire bet (2^14 states instead of 2^6):
PointsProbabilityPaysReturn
00.7516771933-1-0.7516771933
10.1606831552-1-0.1606831552
20.0562873436950.2814367185
30.02119189666100.2119189666
40.007528312681200.1505662536
50.002219893807500.1109946903
60.00041220470672000.08244094133
1-0.07500277814



Thanks, really appreciate it. I assume 6 completed numbers is the easiest to calculate. Can you show the actual formula for it?
miplet
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December 31st, 2013 at 1:05:17 PM permalink
Quote: wudged


Thanks, really appreciate it. I assume 6 completed numbers is the easiest to calculate. Can you show the actual formula for it?


I did this in Google docs.

A: index. Keeping track of what state the game is in. Index 0 is the start of a new bet. Index 1 is the state after rolling only a hard 10. Index 2, just an easy 10. Index 3, completing the 10 point. 16383 is completing all points. 16384 is default.

B: denominator. Number of rolls that affect the bet. at the beginning all rolls except craps and 11 count (30). If you've already made the 36, 46, and 55 (index 11) then there are only 25 rolls that count.

C: get to. The probability that you will reach this index. Just summing rows T to AG.

D: final end. The probability you will 7 out on this index. 6/B*C

E: Points. The number of completed points.

F to S: The index number in binary. 1 = roll made.

T to AG: Just some fancy vlookup stuff. It calculates the probability the current index number came from rolling each of the previous rolls. An example using index 5:

Index 5 is where we have already rolled 45 and 55. row AE checks to see that 45 was one of the required rolls (a 1 in row Q). we then look up the probability that a previous state was without the 45. This is index 1. The probability of being in state 1 * the probability of rolling a 45 next : (get to from index 1)*2/(dem from index 1).

row AG checks to see that 55 was one of the required rolls (a 1 in row S). we then look up the probability that a previous state was without the 55. This is index 2. The probability of being in state 2 * the probability of rolling a 45 next : (get to from index 2)/(dem from index 2).


Feel free to ask any questions.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
wudged
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January 1st, 2014 at 1:11:00 PM permalink
Thanks a bunch, very thorough explanation.

The approach I was taking was just comparing each dice combination vs 7 instead of vs 7 and other countable outcomes, since the rolls are independent. This led to the assumption the chance of completing the 10 was simply 1/18 ([(1/36) / (6/36)] * [(2/36) / (6/36)],) which is actually true, but this is the chance of completing 10 in general (other numbers could or could not be completed) and not the chance of completing ONLY the 10. These assumptions compounded on themselves and led to my ridiculous answer.
Wizard
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January 1st, 2014 at 1:43:55 PM permalink
Quote: miplet


And here is my analysis using the same method I used for doing the fire bet (2^14 states instead of 2^6):

PointsProbabilityPaysReturn
00.7516771933-1-0.7516771933
10.1606831552-1-0.1606831552
20.0562873436950.2814367185
30.02119189666100.2119189666
40.007528312681200.1505662536
50.002219893807500.1109946903
60.00041220470672000.08244094133
1-0.07500277814



Nice work! I thought for doing a recursive analysis, but with so many different states I decided to be lazy and do a simulation.

Mind if I quote your figures on my Odds site? If so, I'd be interested in seeing the exact combinations.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
miplet
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January 1st, 2014 at 3:42:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


Nice work! I thought for doing a recursive analysis, but with so many different states I decided to be lazy and do a simulation.

Mind if I quote your figures on my Odds site? If so, I'd be interested in seeing the exact combinations.


Yes you may. I linked and tried to explain my spreadsheet a few posts above this here.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
nobetthisroll
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January 15th, 2014 at 10:08:03 AM permalink
Quote: wudged

I visited Dover Downs casino yesterday and saw a new bet called Hot Roller Craps.



Also available at Delaware Park in Wilmington, DE.
wudged
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January 15th, 2014 at 10:19:37 AM permalink
Hm, that's interesting that it's not at Harrington, DE though. They still have the standard Fire Bet.
RonC
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February 16th, 2015 at 9:03:00 AM permalink
This bet was available at both DiamondJacks and Margaritaville in Bossier City. We were there this weekend. This was our first trip back there in a while, so I don't know when they were installed but they were not there the last time we were there.

The bet was not played by more than 1 or 2 players on a full table. I did play it; it won more than it lost but I never got any higher than 3 numbers covered. The bet stayed up after a seven out when it was a winning bet.
CrapsForever
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August 19th, 2016 at 7:58:42 AM permalink
Can anyone confirm/update the Las Vegas Casinos that currently have the "Hot Roller" Craps Bet?

Thank you
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
Wizardofnothing
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August 19th, 2016 at 11:52:21 AM permalink
Are you serious in wanting to play it or just curious?
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
777
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August 19th, 2016 at 12:22:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Are you serious in wanting to play it or just curious?



How is this Hot Roll side bet compare to the Fire, Small-Tall-All side bets?
CrapsForever
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August 20th, 2016 at 12:39:29 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Are you serious in wanting to play it or just curious?



I already play it on the East Coast. Inquiring which Casinos have the bet in Las Vegas.
Craps is the most "Jekyll and Hyde" casino game ever invented!
Wizard
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July 6th, 2023 at 11:52:43 AM permalink
Quote: wudged

I visited Dover Downs casino yesterday and saw a new bet called Hot Roller Craps.
link to original post



I just saw this bet at the Golden Nugget in Laughlin in June 30, 2023.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
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