The problem with the iron cross strategy in my humble opinion.
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Quote: spadeknightIve seen some people play the iron cross in live play as well as make some videos on youtube about it. In both instances i observe that the basic problem arises when you bet on the 5 6 8 and the field simultaneously. you will lose in the field if the top of the cross hits and wont hit enough on the bottom to make it worth it in the field. If you want to bet both the 5 6 8 and field numbers then split your field bet numbers on the prop bets which pay more. they are still one roll bets and you get paid more to boot. the only other numbers you get any action on in the field is the 4 9 and 10. in which case you get odds placing and buying. so the whole logic behind playing the cross doesnt make sense to me from an odds perspective of getting more for each dollar you bet.
There are four possible scenarios for the Iron Cross wager, based on the two most important criteria affecting the house advantage, viz-a-viz whether the Field 12 pays 2:1 or 3:1 and whether Buys collect commissions on every bet or just on wins:
Scenario 1: The Field 12 only pays double and Buy bets surrender commission on every resolution, win or lose
In this case, you'll Place (rather than Buy) the 5 @ $5 a pop, Place $6 on each the Six and the 8, and Field bet $5 per roll. The total amount bet will be $5 x 10 5-box resolutions in 36 rolls = $50, $6 x 2 x 11 = $132 on the Six and 8, and $5 x 36 = $180 on the Field, or $362 in all. In 36 rolls, the return will be $48 from the 5, $130 from the Six and 8, and $170 from the Field, or $348 in all, a deficit of $14, and thus a house edge E = -$14/$362 = -3.867%.
Scenario 2: The Field 12 only pays double, but Buy bets surrender commission only on wins
Here, Buying the 5 at $21 (not $20) a bet is optimal ($210 in all) and proportionally placing $24 at a time each on the Six and 8 ($528 in all) and $20 per roll on the Field ($720 in all) makes a total investment of $1,458 in 36 rolls. The total return will be all but $52, giving E = -$52/$1,458 = -3.567%.
Scenario 3: The Field 12 pays triple, but Buy bets surrender commission on every win or loss
The results here are the same as those for 1, except for the increased Field 12 pay, or only $9 lost, and a diminished E = -2.486%.
Scenario 4: The Field 12 pays triple and Buy bets only surrender commission on wins
The optimal situation, returning $20 more than 2, or losing only $32 out of $1,458, and minimizing E = -2.195%.
Clearly, the biggest contributor to frugalizing the Iron Cross system is the presence of the Triple-12 Field.
when the fields pays 3x12 the bet becomes a better bet than placing the 5 & 9.
HOWEVER......... the casino makes its money by paying you less than proper odds on
all your bets.
Even if you hit your number , the casino has a built in vig.....
So you play the iron cross, what happens.
for every $100 you bet on the 4 & 10 the casino keeps $6.67
for every $100 you bet on 5 & 9 ( the casino keeps $4.00
for every $100 you bet on 6 & 8 the casino keeps $1.52
for every $100 you bet on field, the casino keeps $2.78 ( 3x12) or $5.56 at 2x12
Now you can improve that with buys on certain numbers. but that can also add to your average bet.
Under the right conditions any system may work, but in the long run, as you increase your number of bets
you will increase your expected loss per roll.
Dicesetter
Quote: sodawaterThe basic problem with the "iron cross" is that every one of the bets in it is negative expectation.
Awww . You say that like it's a bad thing.
Quote: sodawaterThe basic problem with the "iron cross" is that every one of the bets in it is negative expectation.
That's not a problem peculiar to the Iron Cross; that's the problem with betting in any casino, period.
Quote: dicesitteriron cross
when the fields pays 3x12 the bet becomes a better bet than placing the 5 & 9.
HOWEVER......... the casino makes its money by paying you less than proper odds on
all your bets.
Even if you hit your number , the casino has a built in vig.....
So you play the iron cross, what happens.
for every $100 you bet on the 4 & 10 the casino keeps $6.67
for every $100 you bet on 5 & 9 ( the casino keeps $4.00
for every $100 you bet on 6 & 8 the casino keeps $1.52
for every $100 you bet on field, the casino keeps $2.78 ( 3x12) or $5.56 at 2x12
That's when your making these bets separately. Each of these bets resolves at a different average rate (each 4- or 10-box every four rolls; each 5- or 9-box every 3.6 rolls; each 6- or 8-box every 3.27 rolls, The Field, every roll), so your comparison is apples to pomegranates to oranges to kiwis. The Iron Cross is a coverage bet, with a single-roll and a multi-roll component, combining separate wagers, each one with its own NX, but each is weighted differently because none resolve the same number of times in the Cycle of Rolls. The numbers don't lie - on a liberal Triple-pay-12 Field table, $1,000 bet consistently on the Iron Cross is expected to only lose about $22 or $25. I can live with that.
Bet every easy way for one unit each (15 units) and you win one unit every time you don't roll a pair!
EASY PEEZIE!
You win 5 out of 6 rolls JUST LIKE THE IRON CROSS but you ALWAYS WIN THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT. So there's nothing confusing about it!
If you understand why you might not want to bet this way, but you don't understand why you might not want to bet the iron cross, consider that the composite edge per roll or the iron cross is ten times as high as a max odds strategy, just like EASY PEEZIE(sm) has an edge that is ten times as high as the Iron Cross.
I'll be selling a book called "MAKING CRAPS EASY THE EASY PEEZIE WAY." The book is only $19.99 if you pre-order now.
First signed copy goes to Sally?Quote: AhighIf you like the Iron Cross, you'll love the easy peezie.
Bet every easy way for one unit each (15 units) and you win one unit every time you don't roll a pair!
EASY PEEZIE!
You win 5 out of 6 rolls JUST LIKE THE IRON CROSS but you ALWAYS WIN THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT. So there's nothing confusing about it!
If you understand why you might not want to bet this way, but you don't understand why you might not want to bet the iron cross, consider that the composite edge per roll or the iron cross is ten times as high as a max odds strategy, just like EASY PEEZIE(sm) has an edge that is ten times as high as the Iron Cross.
I'll be selling a book called "MAKING CRAPS EASY THE EASY PEEZIE WAY." The book is only $19.99 if you pre-order now.
Quote: AhighIf you like the Iron Cross, you'll love the easy peezie.
Bet every easy way for one unit each (15 units) and you win one unit every time you don't roll a pair!
EASY PEEZIE!
You win 5 out of 6 rolls JUST LIKE THE IRON CROSS but you ALWAYS WIN THE EXACT SAME AMOUNT. So there's nothing confusing about it!
If you understand why you might not want to bet this way, but you don't understand why you might not want to bet the iron cross, consider that the composite edge per roll or the iron cross is ten times as high as a max odds strategy, just like EASY PEEZIE(sm) has an edge that is ten times as high as the Iron Cross.
I'll be selling a book called "MAKING CRAPS EASY THE EASY PEEZIE WAY." The book is only $19.99 if you pre-order now.
15 discrete one-roll bets, each one with E = -11.11% and all resolved together. In 36 rolls, $15 x 36 = $540 bet. 30 times you win 1:15 (15:1 - 14:14) >> 30:450; six times you "win" -15:15 >> -90:90. So your "system" earns you -60:540 = (surprise, surprise) -1:9 or -11.11%. Are we headed in the right direction here? I'm not really trying to do apologetics for the Iron Cross, just trying to objectively describe the "damage" without being dogmatic or fanatical about "Pass Line only, with Odds; Place 6 or 8; all other bets are eeeeviiiiiil!" I don't think that it's realistic anymore to venture into a new casino and guarantee leaving with 98% or more of your money; 97% is more likely. The Iron Cross can be played optimally to a 97.5% or even a 97.8% return, depending on location.
