Playing the donts and the numbers

Has anybody ever tried this strategy? I tried this strategy about three weeks ago out of desperation after I was down $700 and it got me not only back to even but I left with $900. I won $2,000 using this strategy at a $25 table (I doubled what I normally bet), and I had a few other big wins with it but the last three times I've used it I've gotten killed.

The strategy is to bet $45 on the don't pass and then buy the 5 & 9 for $20 and $18 6 & 8. I lay enough odds so if they 7 out I make $20. Once I break even on the numbers portion for the roll I press aggressively. The table I won $2000 on, I had my 8 pressed all the way to $800 from $30. One of the other times I won big I had a $12 6 and got it up to $96 and hit it!

The idea is if you are on a roll that would normally kill a don't pass player (lots of points), the shooter will most likely have rolled some numbers and my bets will be pressed up enough where even if I loose my don't pass, if they roll a few numbers I will be well in the black. An example is I had $45 on the don't pass on one shooter on his third point (point was 6) but my 5 & 9 were both at $40 and I had a $36 8, so even if he beat me on the dont pass, all he had to do is roll one of those numbers and I will be okay.

Anyways lately this strategy has been killing me the last few times I've used it despite some big wins using it earlier. I only make a little bit of money if they go out right away, and instead of rolling a bunch of numbers, the shooters have been rolling points. I might have done okay the 2nd to last time I tried the strategy if the shooter that made 5 points didn't make so many 4's and 10's which I impulsively decided to put $100 worth of odds on. I had one shooter tonight roll 4 points,but only hit 3 of my numbers, two of the points he hit them back to back.

Curious if anybody has ever tried using the donts to hedge their place bets.

If you hedge, you are giving up money when you "win".

Your buy the five and nine together with Place the six and eight burdens you.

Your pressing your luck on your numbers bets hurts you.

I do this and it's addicting. The compound edge per resolution is horrible when you travel to the five and nine (4% edge for the place bet to resolve). That's the main problem. The secondary problem is that your win amount is small on legs of the compound bet compared to the amount you have to pay the house.

I saw someone else doing this the last time that I played the game, and it looked a whole lot more stupid watching someone else do it that it felt when I did it.

I would compare this bet to something like the field bet, though. You're really only gambling on the first roll so it is sort of like a 1-roll bet. Your win percentage is the chance of not rolling seven eleven or twelve. There are other threads that discuss this strategy, and I'm pretty sure I've done the math for the compound edge. Maybe you could do a search and see if you can find it.

If you modify the strategy and don't place the five or the nine, it won't be so expensive.

The question is sort of like "I tried crack once and it made me feel great!"

You might want to consider the long term effects though.

It's still way smarter than $20 outside though.

Wait a second. I buy the 5 and 9 for $20 each ($40 total) and only pay the vig if it hits. Sounds like a low house edge to me.

My friend employed a strategy pretty similar to this. I think he did $48 don't pass then made place bets after the point was established (he didn't buy any numbers like you.) I think he also played the field. He never won a lot but never lost a lot either so you could say it worked out alright for him.

I've considered playing like this but I've really gotten away from hedging bets on the craps table. In my opinion you need so much more to go your way. Also, there's nothing worse than losing all your bets when you're hedging. That's when it gets ugly. If I wanted to grind on the craps table I'd stick to playing the don'ts and lay my odds.

Quote: guitarmandp

Wait a second. I buy the 5 and 9 for $20 each ($40 total) and only pay the vig if it hits. Sounds like a low house edge to me.

2.00% per resolved bet or 0.56% edge per roll isn't as bad as here in Las Vegas. You didn't qualify that you were playing outside of Las Vegas. Generally speaking, buying the 5 and 9 is just not an option here.

It's still violating the rule "thou shalt not hedge." You are paying a vig to lose. It's not as bad as betting equal amounts on the pass and don't pass with no other bets, but giving up a chance to win just isn't wise if it incurs a cost. There are exceptions (if it's a large amount of money, or if you are DONE and don't WANT to gamble).

I think you are more likely to win if you stick with one bet and put odds don't behind it, but the potential to win huge is a lot greater playing numbers. I've seen my dad turn $500 into $10,000 by doing $270 across, 10x odds behind his passline bet, and a $30 hard way and get on an incredible roll

Quote: guitarmandp

I think you are more likely to win if you stick with one bet and put odds don't behind it, but the potential to win huge is a lot greater playing numbers.

I preffer playing pass and two come bets plus placing 6 & 8, for rather low stakes.

I've seen people win a great deal by pretty much betting every number, pass and odds, hardways, horns and more, each for greens or blacks, and pressing some bets when they hit. IMO you're just as likely, if not more likely, to lose a big deal playing that way. If you can afford it and you enjoy it, go ahead. If not, then play more conervatively or for lower stakes.

I think of the large stakes bettors who also place every bet they can see as either being fearless or foolish, perhaps a bit of both to some extent. But I can see their point, too. suppose you place the five for $120 rather than, say, making a $12 come with 10X odds (assuming the table allows it). After all, you need to hit the 5 twice to win that come bet, but only once to win a place bet. it seems simpler. Also, if it does hit twice you win it twice.

I saw someone go from $3,000 to over $70,000 starting with a two-way horn-high-ace-deuce $500 and $100. I rolled seven horn numbers in a row that were mostly hi-lo while he pressed.

Does that mean this is a good strategy? I think the $70,000 winner was an idiot. I think I lost $70 while he made almost $70,000 as it was a comeout roll and I was betting the pass line.

The best chance to win is to bet the fewest number of events and/or playing the least for ANY given bet.

The worst way to figure out a good strategy is to observe some ten or twenty samples and make conclusions.

Quote: guitarmandp

Curious if anybody has ever tried using the donts to hedge their place bets.

this has been a topic of interest before
Best CRAPS Strategy - turn $300 into $4000+


I think there is also a thread here about it as I look at my new cell phone


Oh, and this craps system looks to be better than all the other craps systems combined
and it is offered free!
so sweet

still having fun
Sally

I know your making fun of me. There's no system to beat the casino I know that but sometimes if the table is really choppy and nobody is winning on either side it has worked for me.

Quote: guitarmandp

I know your making fun of me.

I am having fun with you. I shared a system that has proven to win and win big.
I guess you do not see that as fun.
oh well

Quote: guitarmandp

There's no system to beat the casino

sure there are, but why tell everyone about them?
More reason for the casinos (as a whole) to change the rules of the games and that is less fun in my opinion

most gamblers do not care what the casino does, just be open

Quote: guitarmandp

I know that but sometimes if the table is really choppy and nobody is winning on either side it has worked for me.

if no one is winning it is simply because they are making the wrong bets at the time.

either side
sounds like a structure for the game that in reality does not exist except in simple minds

Like a woman craps player verses a man craps player.
women dominate in every way possible, we (women) know how to win playing craps, that is the side to be on (and bet on)
men do not - but they think they do

you may not understand this as you seem to be a human male
it goes beyond the Venus and Mars thing
Sally

Damn, I really am fat. I swim every day (not yet today)

I tried my strategy yesterday and lost a quick $200 on one shooter that made 4 points and rolled 2 numbers! Yikes! I went back to playing $15 on the donts plus 5X odds and ended up winning the $200 I lost plus $100. It was a strange table, there would be six or seven guys in a row that couldn't make a point, and then a shooter would make 4 or 5 points.

Anyways I'm convinced I would have made a fortune if I used my strategy on this one shooter that made 9 passes (best roll I saw in like three weeks). He rolled for 90 minutes, the guy next to me bet $52 across and made $900 off of this roll without even pressing. The shooter rolled an unbelievable amount of 5's and 9's. I stopped playing the donts on this guy after his third point but if I was pressing up my 5's and 9's, I would have been able to afford a $35 loss on the donts if I had my 5 and 9 up to $160 and he was hitting them!

Quote: mustangsally

I am having fun with you. I shared a system that has proven to win and win big.
I guess you do not see that as fun.
oh well
sure there are, but why tell everyone about them?
More reason for the casinos (as a whole) to change the rules of the games and that is less fun in my opinion

most gamblers do not care what the casino does, just be open
if no one is winning it is simply because they are making the wrong bets at the time.

either side
sounds like a structure for the game that in reality does not exist except in simple minds

Like a woman craps player verses a man craps player.
women dominate in every way possible, we (women) know how to win playing craps, that is the side to be on (and bet on)
men do not - but they think they do

you may not understand this as you seem to be a human male
it goes beyond the Venus and Mars thing
Sally

Damn, I really am fat. I swim every day (not yet today)

Where are you mickeycrimm grab a bottle and get into this conversation. You and Sally could quickly turn this into the thread of the year if you get in the mood ;-)

Quote: mustangsally

we (women) know how to win playing craps, that is the side to be on (and bet on)
men do not - but they think they do

Wow you really are trying to be provocative today!

Even picking on Aaron! tsk tsk

Quote: guitarmandp

I tried my strategy yesterday

system after system after system is a good thing
one does not work, switch to another

sounds like to me that is, on a scale of 0 to 20 you must be a #1 Craps expert
wow
I am only a 19, far from a 1, but as a lifetime craps winner that has to add points you would think!

Quote: guitarmandp

It was a strange table, there would be six or seven guys in a row that couldn't make a point

strange??
there is no skill in rolling a box number twice before a 7.

you being a #1 Craps expert in my opinion
should know that about 60% of all shooters (real and fake)
never make one point before they 7 out.
It is the odds on favorite and should be expected.
of course over any 10 shooter orbit (all male for example) about 1 in 8 (that again) will have 6 or more in a row not hitting one point.

No wonder why I have seen many high rollers (the smart craps players - some say the only smart players)
laying the point.
They win the most times and the most money.

keep up with the better systems!

advantage
Sally

This is interesting. I survived a shooter that made a six point fire bet tonight (he made about 9 or 10 passes) and rolled for an hour; I had a $50 flat don't pass bet on every single roll and started out with only $34 inside. Not only did I survive it I made $150 off this roll. Yeah I'd loose my $50 don't pass bet but I got both my 6 & 8 pressed up to $120 and collected $140 once on each. If the shooter had rolled a 6 or 8 again I was going to do full pressure and go to $240. That would have been a nice hit. I got my nine pressed up to $240 a few days ago on a 1 hour roll but it never hit ):