3point Molly a good balanced strategy?

ok, I've learned the error of my ways thinking Continuous Come is the best Passline/Come strategy.
I thought the Come bet as a free hedge for the 7, thus I get a little back (~3%) if all the bases are loaded and a 7 comes.
but its not a 'free' hedge. I lose the Come bet on a 2,3, and 12. that was my logic hole there.

so 3point Molly (or 3point Betty) is having Passline + 2 Come bets. you have 1/2 the #s. don't place another Come bet till something hits.
You balance the amount of $ risked vs chances of hitting.

In Continuous Come, you might have all the #s (4,5,6,8,9,10) before hitting anything, then a 7.

As Sonny44 said here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/17813-tell-me-why-continuous-come-isnt-the-best-strategy/3/#post354436
"When you win, it's only on one number; when the 7 shows, you lose everything. "

mathematically, it doesn't make a difference. where it does make a difference is bankroll preservation.
also, even if you're bankrolled for Continuous Come, you can play 3point Molly by having higher bets.

ie:
my usual bankroll for Continuous Come = $1500 at a $10min, 3/4/5x table.
But I can double the bets to $20flat/max odds if I limit myself to 3 #s.

Variance goes up. Higher variance = better chances of coming out ahead. (but also better chances of losing your bankroll faster).

and I guess mathematically, the highest variance is just doing a single Passline for $60flat/max odds. but its no fun standing there seeing other #s repeat.
and fun is the #1 reason I play a -EV game.

Any logic holes with my reasoning of 3point Molly being a good balanced strategy?

Play whichever way you find the most fun. There is no difference between the expectation between a continuous come, three point betty, and just passline other than in how long it takes to get to the end.

This is pretty much how I play, except when I try for '3 points out there', I'm pressing. I approve

Both betting systems rely on pure luck to win. Many of us would indicate
that the game is all luck, but not so much.

The continious come bet and the 3 point molly are designed to put as much
money as you can on the table as fast as you can if you are not an across better.

The general school of thought is that the pass and come bets only give the
casino a 1.41% advantage, therefore they appear to be the best bets on
the table. The looooooooooooooooooonge term play suggests those casino
edges, however we dont play in the long term, we play a series of short
terms.

If a pass line number is 10, you have to hit that 10, and it is no easier to hit than
if you placed it. After the pass number is established the odds of you hitting it fall
to about 41 out of 100 chances, after your 2 come bets are up it is about the same.
In the short run 41 out of 100 does not give the casino a 1.41% advantage, it is about
6.9%. ( after come out roll is over)

There are many other things to consider in playing craps than just how to get as
much money as you can on the table as fast as you can, then trying to get a
bankroll large enough to allow you lose it in 1 hour rather than 10 minutes.

dicesetter

I inadvertently put in the 5-star rating; I hit the ">" button, wondering what it did. Wish I could undo it. Not that it's not a decent thread; I don't rate threads.

Like 100x, I've been intrigued with the Come bet, and have played the Molly. You cover 3 points, w/ odds, lowest HA. But, too many times, even w/ 3 numbers covered, the dice hit every number but mine, then 7 out. It really gets back to what you can afford to lose on any one hand. Another way to cover 3 points w/ a bit higher HA is PL & place the 6 & 8 when not the point. Again, this would seem to increase your win chances, but it still gets back to what the dice will do. You can play a hand when every number but yours hits before 7 out.

You can play a few winning hands, but then some 7 outs, resulting in a decrease of your bankroll; what your loss limit is, is another story. I'm not saying you can't walk away from a session a winner, but don't get sucked in by the "low HA" and "odds reducing HA" advice. Someone (superrick?) said these bets can be sucker bets, as well. Only you and your bankroll can tell. It could be that any bet on a craps table is a sucker bet.

Don't get me wrong: I like the Molly, but I've cut back to 1 Come bet, due to bankroll preservation. Last week in LV, I, like a dope, played at a $10 min table w/ a $300 buy-in, using just PL w/ full (345x) odds, mathematically the "best" bet, & hit my loss limit w/in 20 minutes. Another night I went $10 flat, 1x odds. Took an hour to hit loss limit. So, there you are.

It all gets back to how the dice are doing & how your bankroll is doing. The PL & Come bets are good bets. I have played PL w/ odds & place 6 & 8 w/ good results. But, I'm a grinder: I don't press, progress, regress, etc. I'm not sure how good all that is.

I do look forward, however, to getting back to the tables & learning more of what works and doesn't work, for me. "What works" means staying at the table, regardless of how the dice are doing, leaving with either a small win or small loss.

Most experienced players grow weary of come bets. If you like come bets, then just place bet the number after it is rolled. Adding in the flat bet with odds you get about the same or better payout with place bets. The 7 is never your friend anyway with come betting and most times the craps(2,3,12) rolls losses mount up.

Quote: dwm

Most experienced players grow weary of come bets. If you like come bets, then just place bet the number after it is rolled. Adding in the flat bet with odds you get about the same or better payout with place bets. The 7 is never your friend anyway with come betting and most times the craps(2,3,12) rolls losses mount up.

Huh?? There are more 7s than 2, 3, 12 combined. The 2,3,13 losses that "mount up" are more than overcome by the wins on 7.

Placing the number after it rolls loses much (much, much) more money than making a come bet and backing it with odds.

One seven wipes out all bets except the minimal $5 come bet, so you win $5 on the come bet, big deal. And before that you often have a couple craps numbers rolled during the hand after the point is established which are losers as well as 7 "winners" on the come out which wipes out the flat come bets. Come betting just is not what its cracked up to be. The main advantage of come betting is it coming down after a hit, which you can do anyway with place betting.

Quote: dwm

One seven wipes out all bets except the minimal $5 come bet, so you win $5 on the come bet, big deal.

Money is money, it all adds up. The difference between losing $100 and $95 is $5, the same as the difference between winning nothing and winning $5.

Quote:

And before that you often have a couple craps numbers rolled during the hand after the point is established which are losers as well as 7 "winners" on the come out which wipes out the flat come bets. Come betting just is not what its cracked up to be. The main advantage of come betting is it coming down after a hit, which you can do anyway with place betting.

You are making this more complicated than it needs to be. EV is simple; you just add up the EV of all your bets.

Place betting vs. Come betting is a matter of controlling your numbers (and, hopefully) your fate during a hand. Some people want to be able to choose a number, bet on it, take it down, press, progress, regress, etc. They like that control, despite the higher HA. Others, (like me) like to let the dice choose the numbers, adding whatever odds one can afford to lose. I do not know during come-out the naturals vs. craps numbers stats. My impression is it's a tradeoff and amounts won or lost are minimal. I could be wrong on that. I do not believe anyone busts by craps on the come-out.

I do know that on the basis of some recent tests I ran on WinCraps, that the PL w/ full (345x) odds performed better than PL w/ placing 6 & 8. Did the PL route win at a live table, automatically, like I detailed earlier? No. It all gets back to how the dice are rolling, regardless of strategy/method, etc.

I see people in these forums with complicated methods using Place bets, placing certain numbers, taking them down after a certain number of rolls, pressing, regressing, etc. To me, it's a nickel/dime approach, and I have yet to read about any of their methods having resulted in consistent wins, hand after hand, session after session.

Quote: Sonny44

Place betting vs. Come betting is a matter of controlling your numbers (and, hopefully) your fate during a hand. Some people want to be able to choose a number, bet on it, take it down, press, progress, regress, etc. They like that control, despite the higher HA. Others, (like me) like to let the dice choose the numbers, adding whatever odds one can afford to lose. I do not know during come-out the naturals vs. craps numbers stats. My impression is it's a tradeoff and amounts won or lost are minimal. I could be wrong on that. I do not believe anyone busts by craps on the come-out.

I do know that on the basis of some recent tests I ran on WinCraps, that the PL w/ full (345x) odds performed better than PL w/ placing 6 & 8. Did the PL route win at a live table, automatically, like I detailed earlier? No. It all gets back to how the dice are rolling, regardless of strategy/method, etc.

I see people in these forums with complicated methods using Place bets, placing certain numbers, taking them down after a certain number of rolls, pressing, regressing, etc. To me, it's a nickel/dime approach, and I have yet to read about any of their methods having resulted in consistent wins, session after session.

Anyone who claims to consistently win, session after session, is either a liar or is risking far more money than they stand to win. The only one who wins consistently at craps is the casino.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Anyone who claims to consistently win, session after session, is either a liar or is risking far more money than they stand to win. The only one who wins consistently at craps is the casino.

Well, it's not so much that anyone claims to consistently win, but that they imply it in detailing their method of placing this/that number, & after a win/loss, take it down, press it, regress it, etc. Or after x rolls, or a win/loss, then press/regress, etc. They imply this is a winning method/strategy, but none of them say how this has worked out for them over the "long" haul, meaning, "My experience after x sessions at a live table."

It's incredible the contortions people have developed to win at craps. It's ok, but I'm unable at a live table to remember all the details of their little method/strategy. When I see those threads/posts, I skip them, and I'm at the point of skipping computer stuff. But, that's just me; others like these discussions. More power to them. I hope it's working out at live tables, the bottom line.

Quote: dicesitter

The looooooooooooooooooonge term play suggests those casino
edges, however we dont play in the long term, we play a series of short
terms.

a series of short terms add up to long term.

Lots of ways to "have fun" playing craps. Perhaps you should try playing the pass line, maybe for $20, then place 2 numbers for about $20-30. I would place the 6 & 8 if neither are the point. If one is the point, then place 5 or 9. Whenever a place bet hits, press it up some amount (1 or 2 units). It's fun, not risking anymore than you'd be risking normally, and have a chance to win nice when the shooter hits a 6 five times in a row. The thing I don't personally like about come bets ie that you gotta hit a number twice to get paid....frustrating when someone hits a 6 five times in a row...and you only get paid on 2 of them! Plus, come bets are a pain in the dick for dealers.

that is exactly true, i have said that many times myself.

However if your out of money in the short term, your long term is not very long

I have seen a number of high rollers play both systems with as much money as they
can get out there playing one pass line bet and two come bets..... our host has been
taking craps players on trips now for 22 years.,...... not a single one of the high betting
craps players still goes...none


Doctors, dentists lawyers, businessmen and others i can still see them betting, yet
not a single one has made it to the long term..

dicesetter

Quote: AxelWolf

a series of short terms add up to long term.

How come so many people misunderstand this simple concept?

Everybody plays a series of short terms. Is everybody winning? Are the casinos all bankrupt? Why do people believe this nonsense?

Quote: dicesitter

Doctors, dentists lawyers, businessmen and others i can still see them betting, yet
not a single one has made it to the long term..

Yeah that is because they are not gambling addicts, so once they lose their buy-in they go do something else.

I was not talking about their buy ins, i was talking about so much money they
had to quit playing all together.

Our host has 3 new ones, a $20,000- $40,000 lost per trip is not unusual, what do you
want to bet in 1 year none of those people are playing any more also.

You cant just throw money at this game and expect to come out ahead.

dicesetter