I thought the Come bet as a free hedge for the 7, thus I get a little back (~3%) if all the bases are loaded and a 7 comes.
but its not a 'free' hedge. I lose the Come bet on a 2,3, and 12. that was my logic hole there.
so 3point Molly (or 3point Betty) is having Passline + 2 Come bets. you have 1/2 the #s. don't place another Come bet till something hits.
You balance the amount of $ risked vs chances of hitting.
In Continuous Come, you might have all the #s (4,5,6,8,9,10) before hitting anything, then a 7.
As Sonny44 said here: http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/17813-tell-me-why-continuous-come-isnt-the-best-strategy/3/#post354436
"When you win, it's only on one number; when the 7 shows, you lose everything. "
mathematically, it doesn't make a difference. where it does make a difference is bankroll preservation.
also, even if you're bankrolled for Continuous Come, you can play 3point Molly by having higher bets.
my usual bankroll for Continuous Come = $1500 at a $10min, 3/4/5x table.
But I can double the bets to $20flat/max odds if I limit myself to 3 #s.
Variance goes up. Higher variance = better chances of coming out ahead. (but also better chances of losing your bankroll faster).
and I guess mathematically, the highest variance is just doing a single Passline for $60flat/max odds. but its no fun standing there seeing other #s repeat.
and fun is the #1 reason I play a -EV game.
Any logic holes with my reasoning of 3point Molly being a good balanced strategy?
that the game is all luck, but not so much.
The continious come bet and the 3 point molly are designed to put as much
money as you can on the table as fast as you can if you are not an across better.
The general school of thought is that the pass and come bets only give the
casino a 1.41% advantage, therefore they appear to be the best bets on
the table. The looooooooooooooooooonge term play suggests those casino
edges, however we dont play in the long term, we play a series of short
If a pass line number is 10, you have to hit that 10, and it is no easier to hit than
if you placed it. After the pass number is established the odds of you hitting it fall
to about 41 out of 100 chances, after your 2 come bets are up it is about the same.
In the short run 41 out of 100 does not give the casino a 1.41% advantage, it is about
6.9%. ( after come out roll is over)
There are many other things to consider in playing craps than just how to get as
much money as you can on the table as fast as you can, then trying to get a
bankroll large enough to allow you lose it in 1 hour rather than 10 minutes.
Like 100x, I've been intrigued with the Come bet, and have played the Molly. You cover 3 points, w/ odds, lowest HA. But, too many times, even w/ 3 numbers covered, the dice hit every number but mine, then 7 out. It really gets back to what you can afford to lose on any one hand. Another way to cover 3 points w/ a bit higher HA is PL & place the 6 & 8 when not the point. Again, this would seem to increase your win chances, but it still gets back to what the dice will do. You can play a hand when every number but yours hits before 7 out.
You can play a few winning hands, but then some 7 outs, resulting in a decrease of your bankroll; what your loss limit is, is another story. I'm not saying you can't walk away from a session a winner, but don't get sucked in by the "low HA" and "odds reducing HA" advice. Someone (superrick?) said these bets can be sucker bets, as well. Only you and your bankroll can tell. It could be that any bet on a craps table is a sucker bet.
Don't get me wrong: I like the Molly, but I've cut back to 1 Come bet, due to bankroll preservation. Last week in LV, I, like a dope, played at a $10 min table w/ a $300 buy-in, using just PL w/ full (345x) odds, mathematically the "best" bet, & hit my loss limit w/in 20 minutes. Another night I went $10 flat, 1x odds. Took an hour to hit loss limit. So, there you are.
It all gets back to how the dice are doing & how your bankroll is doing. The PL & Come bets are good bets. I have played PL w/ odds & place 6 & 8 w/ good results. But, I'm a grinder: I don't press, progress, regress, etc. I'm not sure how good all that is.
I do look forward, however, to getting back to the tables & learning more of what works and doesn't work, for me. "What works" means staying at the table, regardless of how the dice are doing, leaving with either a small win or small loss.
Most experienced players grow weary of come bets. If you like come bets, then just place bet the number after it is rolled. Adding in the flat bet with odds you get about the same or better payout with place bets. The 7 is never your friend anyway with come betting and most times the craps(2,3,12) rolls losses mount up.
Huh?? There are more 7s than 2, 3, 12 combined. The 2,3,13 losses that "mount up" are more than overcome by the wins on 7.
Placing the number after it rolls loses much (much, much) more money than making a come bet and backing it with odds.
One seven wipes out all bets except the minimal $5 come bet, so you win $5 on the come bet, big deal.
Money is money, it all adds up. The difference between losing $100 and $95 is $5, the same as the difference between winning nothing and winning $5.
And before that you often have a couple craps numbers rolled during the hand after the point is established which are losers as well as 7 "winners" on the come out which wipes out the flat come bets. Come betting just is not what its cracked up to be. The main advantage of come betting is it coming down after a hit, which you can do anyway with place betting.
You are making this more complicated than it needs to be. EV is simple; you just add up the EV of all your bets.
I do know that on the basis of some recent tests I ran on WinCraps, that the PL w/ full (345x) odds performed better than PL w/ placing 6 & 8. Did the PL route win at a live table, automatically, like I detailed earlier? No. It all gets back to how the dice are rolling, regardless of strategy/method, etc.
I see people in these forums with complicated methods using Place bets, placing certain numbers, taking them down after a certain number of rolls, pressing, regressing, etc. To me, it's a nickel/dime approach, and I have yet to read about any of their methods having resulted in consistent wins, hand after hand, session after session.