CrapsGenious
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March 11th, 2014 at 10:12:28 PM permalink
Lately in my shooting dice, I've gotten pretty good at rolling for a 7 mostly on comeout, but I'm also understanding that I can roll a "7" pretty easily in my dice set.

It sounds crazy but I am brainwashing myself to believe that I can "roll it as I call it" because I roll it so much.

Is there a strategy to optimize my winnings to use the "7" to my advantage?

Let's put aside avoiding the seven and making points

I'm willing to risk up to $2500 wager on a good optimized systematic way to "Roll for the 7"

1) Some say I should wager $2000/lay on the 4 and then shoot the dice to make the "7"
2) Other say to just bet "any seven"
3) Many say bet 1k on don't pass with max odds (I've tested this on a smaller scale but "NO GO" not working)

Any suggestions greatly appreciated and I will take care of those who provide me with the best answer.
8 more years till retirement.
TerribleTom
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March 11th, 2014 at 10:23:12 PM permalink
Bet the hops.

6-1, 5-2, 4-3 - bet $X on each and roll away.

At just $20 each it's $60/roll. A hit pays $300.

If you can manage any seven in five rolls you're breaking even. Anything better than that is a profit of at least $300 every five rolls.
Tomspur
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March 11th, 2014 at 10:32:21 PM permalink
Ok, I'm going to fall for this.......

If you are looking to just win as much as you can then betting high on the highest payouts on the comeout would be the sensical thing to do, so TT is right but the variance will kill you and obviously so will the HE. Betting the "Any7" which pays 4 to 1 will also kill you eventually because the HE is 16.67%.
Laying the 4 or 10 will be a 2.44% HE. I know how much you like hedging so then go ahead and have some on the hard 4 or 10 at 11.11% HE.

So, to sum up: Best hit and win option = Hopping 7's
Best longevity option = Laying the 4 or 10

Disclaimer: All these options are silly and should not be attempted. Stick to DC with full odds but I understand this doesn't fit in to your "I can roll 7's whenever I like theory"
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
CrapsGenious
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March 11th, 2014 at 10:46:34 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Bet the hops.

6-1, 5-2, 4-3 - bet $X on each and roll away.

At just $20 each it's $60/roll. A hit pays $300.

If you can manage any seven in five rolls you're breaking even.
Anything better than that is a profit of at least $300 every five rolls.



Definitely gonna give them a try when I visit the casino.

1:5 rolls sounds very do'able when rolling for a "7"
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CrapsGenious
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March 11th, 2014 at 10:51:37 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

Ok, I'm going to fall for this.......

If you are looking to just win as much as you can then betting high on the highest payouts on the comeout would be the sensical thing to do, so TT is right but the variance will kill you and obviously so will the HE. Betting the "Any7" which pays 4 to 1 will also kill you eventually because the HE is 16.67%.
Laying the 4 or 10 will be a 2.44% HE. I know how much you like hedging so then go ahead and have some on the hard 4 or 10 at 11.11% HE.

So, to sum up: Best hit and win option = Hopping 7's
Best longevity option = Laying the 4 or 10

Disclaimer: All these options are silly and should not be attempted. Stick to DC with full odds but I understand this doesn't fit in to your "I can roll 7's whenever I like theory"



I've been playing the pass line and don't passline w/odds on the don't but it's to close to 50/50 and also the DC w/odds if it goes to the 4/5/10 I have a super good chance of winning that bet when trying for a 7.

Problem is with that dice set, quite a few 6/8/9's come out of it and need to either call "no action on the dc or just let the dc goto the number and I place it to cover it. (even this wager is to slow for wanting to risk $2500)

I appreciate these replies.
8 more years till retirement.
TerribleTom
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March 11th, 2014 at 10:55:53 PM permalink
1 in 6 should be a breeze.
CrapsGenious
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March 11th, 2014 at 11:24:22 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

1 in 6 should be a breeze.



I'm "hopping" to do ok with the 1:5 to 7 strategy playing the hopping 7's.

I want to try this approach because the 10 number average numbers rolled before 7 is not profitable. (maybe I'm betting wrong)

Betting the hard 6's/8's tonight took it's toll on me, I hit quite a few of them but lost every parley.
I also made out good betting the 6/8 place bets but not as profitable as expected.

This is why I'm checking out a new angle with the "7".
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mustangsally
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March 11th, 2014 at 11:50:19 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

Bet the hops.

6-1, 5-2, 4-3 - bet $X on each and roll away.

At just $20 each it's $60/roll. A hit pays $300.

yes, best play. every roll. fun to watch

Quote: TerribleTom

If you can manage any seven in five rolls you're breaking even.

not even, no close.
you need to check your math
he will have a 1/15 house edge each and every roll and over 3 bets each roll that is a +EV of $4 per roll or $400 per hour/100 rolls

get a syndicate together once you show someone with cash what you can do and start making $300 3way seven bets for $2000 per hour EV.

you need a 1 in 5 to do this

a 1 in 5.5 average will be a loser
a 1 in 5.3 will bring in 40 cents per roll. $40 per hour might pay your expenses.
stay close to the 5.0 and retire next year
Quote: TerribleTom

Anything better than that is a profit of at least $300 every five rolls.

no need to be better than 1 in 5
unless it could be done

he nets $260 on a win and a loss of $240 the other 4 rolls for a net of $20 per 5 rolls. ($4 per roll)

just start making bigger bets with your edge as your bankroll grows

This is a no-brainer
just roll 7s at a 1 in 5 ratio
min pass and make sure both dice hit the back wall
spin to win

Sally
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RS
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March 11th, 2014 at 11:58:09 PM permalink
When you try to roll a 7 and fail, which number(s) are you more/most likely to hit? Lay the numbers you are least likely to hit. That's a quick n easy way to figure out what your best bet is when trying to roll a 7.

The more accurate way, in my opinion, is to figure out the distribution of numbers rolled when trying to roll a 7. That being said, best case scenario, I think, is if you can roll the dice in a way so you are more likely to hit 2,3,11,or 12 if you are not hitting 7's. Reason being, if you roll a 7 on the come-out roll (which is what you're aiming for) you win whatever your bet is, whether it's a lay or a 3-way 7 hop, and you keep the dice. If you hit a 2,3,11,12 on the come out roll, you are still on the come-out roll. If you roll a 4,5,6,8,9,10 on the come-out roll, that becomes your point (duh), and when the 7 is rolled that you're hoping for, you are no longer shooting the dice. You want to shoot the 7's during the come out roll so you can continue shooting 7's, as opposed to shooting a 7 as to "seven out" and pass the dice.
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 1:46:44 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

yes, best play. every roll. fun to watch

not even, no close.
you need to check your math
he will have a 1/15 house edge each and every roll and over 3 bets each roll that is a +EV of $4 per roll or $400 per hour/100 rolls

get a syndicate together once you show someone with cash what you can do and start making $300 3way seven bets for $2000 per hour EV.

you need a 1 in 5 to do this

a 1 in 5.5 average will be a loser
a 1 in 5.3 will bring in 40 cents per roll. $40 per hour might pay your expenses.
stay close to the 5.0 and retire next year
no need to be better than 1 in 5
unless it could be done

he nets $260 on a win and a loss of $240 the other 4 rolls for a net of $20 per 5 rolls. ($4 per roll)

just start making bigger bets with your edge as your bankroll grows

This is a no-brainer
just roll 7s at a 1 in 5 ratio
min pass and make sure both dice hit the back wall
spin to win

Sally



Damn!, If you're ever in Buffalo NY, I want you to manage my bank roll while I roll them bones. You are amazing with your math skills.
8 more years till retirement.
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:03:50 AM permalink
Quote: RS

When you try to roll a 7 and fail, which number(s) are you more/most likely to hit? Lay the numbers you are least likely to hit. That's a quick n easy way to figure out what your best bet is when trying to roll a 7.

The more accurate way, in my opinion, is to figure out the distribution of numbers rolled when trying to roll a 7. That being said, best case scenario, I think, is if you can roll the dice in a way so you are more likely to hit 2,3,11,or 12 if you are not hitting 7's. Reason being, if you roll a 7 on the come-out roll (which is what you're aiming for) you win whatever your bet is, whether it's a lay or a 3-way 7 hop, and you keep the dice. If you hit a 2,3,11,12 on the come out roll, you are still on the come-out roll. If you roll a 4,5,6,8,9,10 on the come-out roll, that becomes your point (duh), and when the 7 is rolled that you're hoping for, you are no longer shooting the dice. You want to shoot the 7's during the come out roll so you can continue shooting 7's, as opposed to shooting a 7 as to "seven out" and pass the dice.



When using that dice set left side of stick man, I tend to roll and repeat the 6/8/9 most of the time, I've wagered on the Lay4 for $200 on comeout and made that 7 but do not hit that each time, It's mostly an on/off bet that wins once in a while (Comeout roll only). I do however get lucky with it having made 3x 7's during comeout roll.

I'm really considering wagering the "hopping 7's" as mentioned.

1) Bankroll $2500
2) Risk $60 per roll on comeout and also when a point is established. (Just keep wager of $60 hopping 7's going throughout my roll) to test the waters.
3) At 7 out, i'll check my chip stack to see what's +/-
4) Start again with same mission in mind.
5) Increase wager to $300 per roll gives me 8 chances from bank roll to make a "7" or risk ruin. (This sounds very do'able)

$100 x 15:1 = $1500 - the other two $100 wagers = $1200 and all I have to do is make a "7" in 5 rolls twice to double my bank roll (or close to it).

Maybe I'm missing something because this sound a heck of a lot easier to do than roll for a firebet.

What's got me really messed up is... the Hopping 6 or 8 also pay 15:1
This is gonna be a long night/long morning for me.

Maybe I can incorporate more bets in the "hopping" world

6's, 7's & 8's ? ? ?
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RonC
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:17:53 AM permalink
Every day there seems to be a new thread on how you roll...I think this might be because your ideas about what you roll come from memory (which is sometimes selective based on what stands out more in our mind) and not data that is kept. If you truly think that you influence the dice in any way, you owe it to yourself (and your bankroll!) to track, or have tracked, each and every roll for a sufficient period of time to figure out if your numbers are any different than "random" numbers.

If you really influence the dice AND you bet the right way, your bankroll would climb because you would have an advantage over the house.
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:26:47 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

Every day there seems to be a new thread on how you roll...I think this might be because your ideas about what you roll come from memory (which is sometimes selective based on what stands out more in our mind) and not data that is kept. If you truly think that you influence the dice in any way, you owe it to yourself (and your bankroll!) to track, or have tracked, each and every roll for a sufficient period of time to figure out if your numbers are any different than "random" numbers.

If you really influence the dice AND you bet the right way, your bankroll would climb because you would have an advantage over the house.



I'm absorbing all your words RonC.
I maybe in a phase where i'm lost without direction, and I need guidence.

Ron, I may be on to something with this "seven" thing.
Positive side betting is not giving me the expected results as tested in my simulations on hardways, firebets, across bets and place bets.

I know 100% i can set the dice to roll for a "seven" and make it (not every roll but within 3 to 5 rolls on average) I proved it to myself last night in all my rolling sessions.

I know I have a much better chance of using the "7" to my advantage to give me an introduction to a better wagering plan.

Ron, give me more time to experiment with this "Hopping 7's thing" and I will start posting results via camera.
8 more years till retirement.
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 3:14:37 AM permalink
As a second choice of wagering on "Hopping" bets

If I can roll a 6, 7 or 8 in just under 5 rolls average and do this over and over again,
will wagering on a hopping 6,7,8 every roll hold water and produce profits?

keeping in mind the following:

7 > 3 bets @ 15:1
8 = 2 bets @ 15:1 & 1 hardway 8 @ 30:1
6 = 2 bets @ 15:1 & 1 hardway 6 @ 30:1

Total wagers = 7 @ $10 each & 2 @ $5 each (Hopping Hard 6 & 8) = $80 per roll.
Total pay = $150 - $70 or -$75 = $80 per roll if every roll were to be a 6, 7, or 8
losing rolls = (2),(3),(2/2),(3/1),(3/2),(4,1),(5/4),(6/3),(5/5),(6/4),(11),(12)
In my dice set I rarely see even half of these numbers show up
Total 12 losing rolls vs. 9 winning rolls (Odds are 4:3) of making profits or risk ruin.

Also other bets including:
1) Doey/don't $100 Passline/$100 Don't passline bet w/6x odds if point is 4,5,9, or 10.
2) $200/Lay 4 on comeout roll only or always on.

If I set the dice to shoot for a "7" and miss, Most likely the next number to show will be a 6 or an 8.

... to be continued.
8 more years till retirement.
RS
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March 12th, 2014 at 4:11:51 AM permalink
There are all sorts of ways you can make your bets (duh, it's craps!). If you can influence the dice for 6/8, you could simply just put money on the passline (your actual bet you're trying to win) without doing hop-bets. Shoot for a 7 on the come out roll, and keep shooting for 7's on the come out. But, if you land on a 6 or 8, which eventually it should since you're not going to constantly be hitting 7's....then put max odds and set them to shoot for 6/8 (or set them to avoid 7's).

If you're gonna hop 'em:

$6 3-way 7,
$4 easy 6, $1 hard 6
$4 easy 8, $1 hard 8

$16 total action on hops

If you roll 7, you collect $16 (2x16 - 16)
If you roll easy 6/8, collect $16 (2x16 - 16)
If you roll hard 6/8, collect $15 (1x31 - 16)

Collect $16 5/6'ths of the rolls (if you hit 6,7,8), and collect $15 1/6'th the rolls (hard 6/8).

Or if you multiply it all by 10, you'd be wagering $160 every roll to win $160 most of the time and $150 some of the time, assuming you hit your numbers (and your wagers stay up, mind you).

If you can roll a 6,7,8 half the time, you are slightly under positive EV (since the hard 6/8 is where you get paid less). But if you're confident you can hit a 6,7,8 more than 50% of the time, you'll be in the positive territory.
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 4:49:24 AM permalink
Quote: RS

There are all sorts of ways you can make your bets (duh, it's craps!). If you can influence the dice for 6/8, you could simply just put money on the passline (your actual bet you're trying to win) without doing hop-bets. Shoot for a 7 on the come out roll, and keep shooting for 7's on the come out. But, if you land on a 6 or 8, which eventually it should since you're not going to constantly be hitting 7's....then put max odds and set them to shoot for 6/8 (or set them to avoid 7's).



That's what I did last night and the house caught up to me on my betting the 6/8 strategy. That's what made me think of the "7" road.

Quote:

If you're gonna hop 'em:

$6 3-way 7,
$4 easy 6, $1 hard 6
$4 easy 8, $1 hard 8

$16 total action on hops

If you roll 7, you collect $16 (2x16 - 16)
If you roll easy 6/8, collect $16 (2x16 - 16)
If you roll hard 6/8, collect $15 (1x31 - 16)

Collect $16 5/6'ths of the rolls (if you hit 6,7,8), and collect $15 1/6'th the rolls (hard 6/8).

Or if you multiply it all by 10, you'd be wagering $160 every roll to win $160 most of the time and $150 some of the time, assuming you hit your numbers (and your wagers stay up, mind you).

If you can roll a 6,7,8 half the time, you are slightly under positive EV (since the hard 6/8 is where you get paid less). But if you're confident you can hit a 6,7,8 more than 50% of the time, you'll be in the positive territory.



We will know this sunday @ Casino Brantford (Canada) I'm gonna be there testing this Hopping bet strategy with just "7", just "6", just "8" and then all of them together to see what happens.
Worst case scenario, we waste a 2hr drive and lose our bank roll.

I appreciate your input on this, I really hope it works out. i know them damn "7's" like to come out quite often then I want with that dice set.
8 more years till retirement.
endermike
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March 12th, 2014 at 7:53:20 AM permalink
CrapsGenious,

Craps is a finely balanced game. Because the vig between Pass and Don't is small (bar 12 on the come out), slight variation in seven will easily make one side or the other profitable.

Further, there are then a plethora of other bets covering many different events. Because most of these bets have a low vig reverse bet, slight bias in the results of the dice will make some bets +EV.

Quote: RonC

you owe it to yourself (and your bankroll!) to track, or have tracked, each and every roll for a sufficient period of time to figure out if your numbers are any different than "random" numbers.


I echo these thoughts. If you could give us some reports on how your results are biased we could give you plenty of advice on how to best exploit your talents.

Quote: CG

I tend to roll and repeat the 6/8/9 most of the time


Based on this, I would recommend splitting your lay over 4 and 10. My thinking here comes from the goal of diversification in investing. If you roll significantly fewer than one 10 for every two 7s (when you are shooting for 7) then this is also +EV. I would split the bets either even or slightly imbalanced based on your ratio of fours to tens.
MathExtremist
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March 12th, 2014 at 8:18:06 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I know 100% i can set the dice to roll for a "seven" and make it (not every roll but within 3 to 5 rolls on average) I proved it to myself last night in all my rolling sessions.


A random roller will roll a seven within 5 rolls nearly 60% of the time without trying. Your results aren't surprising.

You should really study up on probability theory so you can tell which results are surprising and which are expected. That's the only way you'll ever know if you're actually influencing the dice or whether you just think you are. Hint: "all your rolling sessions" last night are insufficient to prove anything. Once you understand statistics and variance, you'll understand why one night's worth of rolls is just not enough.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
tilt247
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March 12th, 2014 at 9:05:36 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

A random roller will roll a seven within 5 rolls nearly 60% of the time without trying. Your results aren't surprising.

You should really study up on probability theory so you can tell which results are surprising and which are expected. That's the only way you'll ever know if you're actually influencing the dice or whether you just think you are. Hint: "all your rolling sessions" last night are insufficient to prove anything. Once you understand statistics and variance, you'll understand why one night's worth of rolls is just not enough.




Could not have said it better. Bottom line, you are not influencing the dice and you are straight gambling. Having fun doing it no doubt, but gambling nonetheless.
Wait, it's a long term advantage?
mustangsally
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March 12th, 2014 at 9:39:57 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

A random roller will roll a seven within 5 rolls nearly 60% of the time without trying. Your results aren't surprising.

But they could be if he rolled more than 5 times. should we tell him that this is just for any set of 5 rolls?

I am certain he rolled way more than just 5 rolls total

how about 60 rolls?
for at least 20% of his rolls to be a 7 (12 or more), random rollers 0.2920561 or 1 in 3.42 or 10 in 34.2
easily accomplish this without trying

how about 600 rolls?
for at least 20% of his rolls to be a 7 (120 or more), random rollers 0.0180108 or 1 in 55.52 or 10 in 555.2

for a random roller it gets harder and harder to maintain a 1 in 5 ratio
but maybe not for this DI. He might be special.

so now OP has a target to shoot for.
Keep that ratio at or below 1 in 5 and you will crush the casinos
and many will stop playing all the other casino games and will want to pay you to learn "How to roll more 7s at Craps and Win"
Sally
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CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 1:48:36 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

But they could be if he rolled more than 5 times. should we tell him that this is just for any set of 5 rolls?

I am certain he rolled way more than just 5 rolls total

how about 60 rolls?
for at least 20% of his rolls to be a 7 (12 or more), random rollers 0.2920561 or 1 in 3.42 or 10 in 34.2
easily accomplish this without trying

how about 600 rolls?
for at least 20% of his rolls to be a 7 (120 or more), random rollers 0.0180108 or 1 in 55.52 or 10 in 555.2

for a random roller it gets harder and harder to maintain a 1 in 5 ratio
but maybe not for this DI. He might be special.

so now OP has a target to shoot for.
Keep that ratio at or below 1 in 5 and you will crush the casinos
and many will stop playing all the other casino games and will want to pay you to learn "How to roll more 7s at Craps and Win"
Sally



I'm 100% on my shooting skills to make a "7" if not repeating 3 to 5 times (the most i've gotten on comeout roll) 1:5. but I am confident to want to say 1:3 using the dice set I've mentioned a few times in the forum.

It is a modified 2v set (Showing 6/2 top and 2/4 facing me) this set allows 4 possible 7's in the rolling patterns. I shoot them from spot 8 (Left side of stick man) lift the dice approx 3" to 4" from the felt and toss so both dice hit the back wall (Leaning forward toward the stick man area when tossing) and bingo, 7 is your goal number but on a miss 6/8/9 will most likely show in the roll.

It isn't a hard set to work with and the toss is pretty straight forward, almost anyone can learn this very fast. I do recommend the "doey/don't" if you're shooting using this set, because the 7 does come out quite often than normal. for odds, I recommend playing double odds up to max odds on the "don't" side.

Also this set rarely will show a 4 on comeout and wagering a $200/Lay4 is pretty safe during comeout.
8 more years till retirement.
TerribleTom
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March 12th, 2014 at 2:53:26 PM permalink
I realized my math was wrong about 5 minutes after I posted.

Betting the hops would still work if you can in fact hit a 7 every 5th roll (or more), but you are not going to profit $300/roll, much less $300 per five rolls.

You wager $60 (3 x $20 each on 6-1, 5-2, 4-3). You place this bet on every roll.

Win in 1 roll = profit of $280 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 2x$20 losers)
Win in 2 rolls = profit of $220 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 5x$20 losers)
Win in 3 rolls = profit of $160 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 8x$20 losers)
Win in 4 rolls = profit of $100 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 11x$20 losers)
Win in 5 rolls = profit of $40 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 14x$20 losers)
Win in 6 rolls = loss of $20 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 17x$20 losers)

This would certainly be a fun experiment, especially if other people were hitting a lot of sevens for you.
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 3:40:34 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

I realized my math was wrong about 5 minutes after I posted.

Betting the hops would still work if you can in fact hit a 7 every 5th roll (or more), but you are not going to profit $300/roll, much less $300 per five rolls.

You wager $60 (3 x $20 each on 6-1, 5-2, 4-3). You place this bet on every roll.

Win in 1 roll = profit of $280 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 2x$20 losers)
Win in 2 rolls = profit of $220 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 5x$20 losers)
Win in 3 rolls = profit of $160 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 8x$20 losers)
Win in 4 rolls = profit of $100 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 11x$20 losers)
Win in 5 rolls = profit of $40 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 14x$20 losers)
Win in 6 rolls = loss of $20 ($20 winning bet + $300 win - 17x$20 losers)

This would certainly be a fun experiment, especially if other people were hitting a lot of sevens for you.



just to recap this:

1) Win in 1 roll = wager -60 on each 7 ($20 x 3) If win = $260 if I roll "7" ($300.00 - $40) or -60 balance if I lose.
2) Win in 2 rolls = wager -60 on each 7 ($20 x 3) If win = $200 if I roll "7" ($300.00 - $40 - $60 from previous loss) or -120 balance if I lose.
3) Win in 3 rolls = wager -60 on each 7 ($20 x 3) If win = $140 if I roll "7" ($300.00 - $40 - $60 - $60 from previous loss) or -180 balance if I lose.
4) Win in 4 rolls = wager -60 on each 7 ($20 x 3) If win = $80 if I roll "7" ($300.00 - $40 - $60 - $60 -60 from previous loss) or -240 balance if I lose.

"This is not looking good after 4 rolls with no 7 made" but definitely possible.

But on a good note, 7's will pay off gracefully when rolled back to back on comeout.

I'm gonna keep a log on my next visit to find out how the 7's are rolled to see if maybe the "5/2" shows more than the "6/1" or "4/3"

I will be testing this theory at the craps table in Brantford Canada, this Sunday March 16th between 1pm to 9pm.
I will only be doing this test only when I shoot the dice, It's too random if I chance this test against random shooters.
8 more years till retirement.
mustangsally
mustangsally
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March 12th, 2014 at 4:02:31 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

"This is not looking good after 4 rolls with no 7 made"

you are missing the point of rolling a 7
1 in 5 rolls on average. Just get a bankroll.

you should not care about going 20 rolls without a 7. you lose $1200 and everyone laughs at you.
who cares.
you have a bankroll because your average win is $4 per roll at $60 bet per roll

you average 1 in 5, you have a big edge over the casino and bankroll will be no problem in getting
after you prove your 7 to rolls ratio. the lower the better.
Then you could just fly to Vegas, rent a table, have your investors there and play and win and move to another casino and play and win.

over 120 rolls you roll min 24 7s and will make 360 bets of $20 each and win only 24 of them
24*300 = 7,200
336*-20 = -6,720
net = $480 or $4 per roll

prove your 1 in 5 ratio and you and I and maybe a few others will be on easy street
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
RonC
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March 12th, 2014 at 4:12:17 PM permalink
CG will never offer any real proof.

Yes, the math does matter. I'm not a math person, but I know enough to know it matters. Unless you can prove that the result of your rolls over time is different than the result of the norm because you have controlled the event, you will be greeted here with skepticism. Starting a new thread every hour or two on how to bet on your unproven rolls will not change that.

I think you are just like the rest of us--you roll the dice and random happens. You can win sometimes at craps and sometimes you lose. Some people may have a little more fall their way and others a little less, but that is the nature of random. We just step into what may well be millions or billions of rolls on one table (or all tables combined) at a certain time; the table may "go our way" while in the process of being totally random.

I've read the books. I watched the incredibly boring AH roll the dice on his show. No one has convinced anyone that they can actually control the dice.

I'd love to see proof.
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 4:16:35 PM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

you are missing the point of rolling a 7
1 in 5 rolls on average. Just get a bankroll.

you should not care about going 20 rolls without a 7. you lose $1200 and everyone laughs at you.
who cares.
you have a bankroll because your average win is $4 per roll at $60 bet per roll

you average 1 in 5, you have a big edge over the casino and bankroll will be no problem in getting
after you prove your 7 to rolls ratio. the lower the better.
Then you could just fly to Vegas, rent a table, have your investors there and play and win and move to another casino and play and win.

over 120 rolls you roll min 24 7s and will make 360 bets of $20 each and win only 24 of them
24*300 = 7,200
336*-20 = -6,720
net = $480 or $4 per roll

prove your 1 in 5 ratio and you and I and maybe a few others will be on easy street
Sally



your math is "Crazy genius"

I'll keep you posted on what happens sunday.
8 more years till retirement.
CrapsGenious
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 4:25:09 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

CG will never offer any real proof.

Yes, the math does matter. I'm not a math person, but I know enough to know it matters. Unless you can prove that the result of your rolls over time is different than the result of the norm because you have controlled the event, you will be greeted here with skepticism. Starting a new thread every hour or two on how to bet on your unproven rolls will not change that.

I think you are just like the rest of us--you roll the dice and random happens. You can win sometimes at craps and sometimes you lose. Some people may have a little more fall their way and others a little less, but that is the nature of random. We just step into what may well be millions or billions of rolls on one table (or all tables combined) at a certain time; the table may "go our way" while in the process of being totally random.

I've read the books. I watched the incredibly boring AH roll the dice on his show. No one has convinced anyone that they can actually control the dice.

I'd love to see proof.



It's got nothing to do with "controlled dice"

on the positive side of wagering I use my dice set to avoid the 7's and do well with it, but can not determine what number comes out after the roll.
on comeout roll when I use that dice set mentioned, I roll a ton of "sevens" I use the same two dice sets when shooting the dice and after a few months with using the customized 2-v set, I am 100% positive that even though I can not know what will show on the roll, I know that "7" is just a couple rolls away.

I rolled 3x 7's back to back and also single 7 front line winners using that set.

I don't nor will never believe "dice control" possible. As mentioned many times from me, "not even a robotic arm can do it"
but I truly believe with the right person using the right dice set to roll numbers and avoid the "7" is a definite fact.
8 more years till retirement.
RonC
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March 12th, 2014 at 4:38:28 PM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

It's got nothing to do with "controlled dice"

on the positive side of wagering I use my dice set to avoid the 7's and do well with it, but can not determine what number comes out after the roll.
on comeout roll when I use that dice set mentioned, I roll a ton of "sevens" I use the same two dice sets when shooting the dice and after a few months with using the customized 2-v set, I am 100% positive that even though I can not know what will show on the roll, I know that "7" is just a couple rolls away.

I rolled 3x 7's back to back and also single 7 front line winners using that set.

I don't nor will never believe "dice control" possible. As mentioned many times from me, "not even a robotic arm can do it"
but I truly believe with the right person using the right dice set to roll numbers and avoid the "7" is a definite fact.



If you don't have any control of the dice, how can setting them a certain way change the outcome to anything but getting the same overall results, in the long term, as someone who picks them up and flings them without a care?

You imply some form of control or influence, yet you say you don't believe in it.

Let's see how you do with Soopoo in attendance a few times. We'll hear his report and either shuffle off to Buffalo to join you at the tables or know that your rolls are just as random as everyone else's....
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 6:32:43 PM permalink
Quote: RonC

If you don't have any control of the dice, how can setting them a certain way change the outcome to anything but getting the same overall results, in the long term, as someone who picks them up and flings them without a care?

You imply some form of control or influence, yet you say you don't believe in it.

Let's see how you do with Soopoo in attendance a few times. We'll hear his report and either shuffle off to Buffalo to join you at the tables or know that your rolls are just as random as everyone else's....



you leave me speechless, because I don't know how to explain it to you. maybe you're very correct on this, maybe i just shoot random numbers from a dice set.
8 more years till retirement.
SOOPOO
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March 12th, 2014 at 6:56:29 PM permalink
Quote: RonC



Let's see how you do with Soopoo in attendance a few times. We'll hear his report and either shuffle off to Buffalo to join you at the tables or know that your rolls are just as random as everyone else's....



He has not responded to my offer.....
Buzzard
Buzzard
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March 12th, 2014 at 7:01:17 PM permalink
Are you sure ? Now I am so disappointed !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
CrapsGenious
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March 12th, 2014 at 11:03:59 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

He has not responded to my offer.....



I don't go to the Seneca, Way too smoky in that casino. fallsview is much better. I can be there Monday 7:15am to 12pm, Tuesday same times next week. Most nights I need to check my work schedule and get back to you. Monday, Tuesday, Wed nights anytime after 6pm to midnight is also good.
8 more years till retirement.
JB85
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March 13th, 2014 at 9:47:18 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious



It is a modified 2v set (Showing 6/2 top and 2/4 facing me) this set allows 4 possible 7's in the rolling patterns. I shoot them from spot 8 (Left side of stick man) lift the dice approx 3" to 4" from the felt and toss so both dice hit the back wall (Leaning forward toward the stick man area when tossing) and bingo, 7 is your goal number but on a miss 6/8/9 will most likely show in the roll.



If this set really produces mostly 6,7,8 and9's, use a lay 4 (or 10) strategy, turn the 7 into your friend.

Lay 4, $60. Place the 6, 8 and 9 for $6, $6 and $5. Each hit on the place numbers pays $7. Each 7 pays $13, minus vig. Use on an emptier table because you obviously lose the dice when you shoot from the darkside. If you want more action, which is sounds like you do just raise the bets in the same ratio.
ghettoshecky
ghettoshecky
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March 13th, 2014 at 9:02:15 PM permalink
Well if you're confident enough to roll a 7 within 5 rolls, you can try this ultra risky idea. Hop each 7 $20 each and negatively progress it till you hit it. You will probably have to check the table max on the hop bets before you do this. A total bet on the hops of $60 to start off would win you net $240. Then if you lose, bet $120 which can net you $540. You can do this all the way to fifth negatively progressed bet which would be a total of $960 and the net would be $3840 (remember this amount includes all your previously lost bets plus leaving a start bet of $60). If I was good as you say you are that's exactly what I would do. I don't like hedging bets in any way and although I don't know the math I'm pretty sure any hedge would actually increase the house edge because each bet has a house edge other than the odds behind a pass line bet.
RS
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March 14th, 2014 at 1:31:05 AM permalink
When you BUY or LAY a number, you want to get the "best bang for your buck". Although it is minimal, you're better off laying $50 than laying $40. Reason being, if you pay vig up-front (like you do in most stores), you're betting $51 to win $25, or betting $41 to win $20. It is slightly better to bet $51 to win $25 than $41 to win $20. 25/51 ~ 0.4902 and 20/41 ~ 0.4878. This means you have a higher edge/return laying $50 than laying $40. Reason being, in both cases you're paying a $1 vig.

When you buy a number, it's best to buy it for $25 or $50, since the vig will be $1 or $2 respectively. If you buy it for $30, the vig is $2...in which case you're betting off buying it for $50, since the vig is going to be $2 in both cases.
CrapsGenious
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March 14th, 2014 at 3:19:53 AM permalink
Quote: RS

When you BUY or LAY a number, you want to get the "best bang for your buck". Although it is minimal, you're better off laying $50 than laying $40. Reason being, if you pay vig up-front (like you do in most stores), you're betting $51 to win $25, or betting $41 to win $20. It is slightly better to bet $51 to win $25 than $41 to win $20. 25/51 ~ 0.4902 and 20/41 ~ 0.4878. This means you have a higher edge/return laying $50 than laying $40. Reason being, in both cases you're paying a $1 vig.

When you buy a number, it's best to buy it for $25 or $50, since the vig will be $1 or $2 respectively. If you buy it for $30, the vig is $2...in which case you're betting off buying it for $50, since the vig is going to be $2 in both cases.



I'm already Laying $200 no 4. I have that covered, along with 6x max odds in behind the don't.
8 more years till retirement.
wudged
wudged
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March 14th, 2014 at 7:34:59 AM permalink
Quote: CrapsGenious

I'm already Laying $200 no 4. I have that covered, along with 6x max odds in behind the don't.



You missed the point entirely. If you want to lay that much, then lay either $210, $220 or $230 (depends on the casino's "breakage" point) with the same $5 vig.

Whatever casino(s) RS is used to playing at (I assume Vegas with vig on win only) break between $29/$30, but some will even let you go all the way to $39/$40. These are typically vig up front places, though.
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