Lay on the come out
2) You now have 24/36 (4/6) ways to lose vs 1/6 ways to win.
3) (Not that it matters much, but) Dealers will hate you.
OKQuote: mdsHow about laying the 4,5,6,8,9,10 for say 200 each only on the come out roll?
I saw a player laying the 6 for $200 and no 6s were rolling. He won big!
you would need to bet $201 for the 5&9 and the $200 for the Lay6&8 would be $192 to win $160 and $8 pays the vig ($25 pays $20 and $1 vig is paid)
Where have all the flowers gone?Quote: mdsIf a point is established take everything off. After the point is established take all the lay bets down. You lose 200.
If the 7 come up on the come out roll you win 1200ish?
how do you arrive at $1200?
it should be with a vig paid up front only $748
100+100+160+160+134+134-5-5-8-8-7-7
what would you win where the vig is paid on a win only?
I think that really messes up your plan
Sally
added: your chances of showing a net loss from this system over X number of times played
10 times: 53.2%
100: 58.6%
1000: 72.7%
5000: 90.9%
it is the vig that gets you
Quote: mdsJust throwing this out to the masses. I know the answer. I understand the house edge however and there is no "system". How about laying the 4,5,6,8,9,10 for say 200 each only on the come out roll? If a point is established take everything off. After the point is established take all the lay bets down. You lose 200. If the 7 come up on the come out roll you win 1200ish? In other words you are putting up 200 to win 1200ish -vig? Why not? In craps the house edge is always against you anyway and 1/6 times the 7 will come up. Did I just answer my own question? What is the math on this play?
I thought about doing this, but:
1) Lay $300 across each number (Total $1800) + $58 vig.
a) If 7 gets rolled, Congratulations, you have just won $1142.00
b) If a number gets rolled, all remaining bets are turned off and you accept a loss of $300 + vig on that number.
2) I've see on an average comeout roll the 7 will roll 3:14 players at the table
therefore in each table round, you're expected to win ($1142 x 3 = $3426.00) and lose ($300 x 11 = $3300)
3) In most table rounds there will most likely be 1 shooter that repeats the 7 on comeout at least 2 times on comeout (I've seen and also rolled myself a 7 5 times in a row) but 2 times in a row sounds more like a good average per table round Giving you and extra $1142 profit. (Everything else is just gravy)
But now compare this with simply betting $300/Any 7 that pays 4:1 using the same ratio's listed above:
1) If you're expected to win 3 times per table round, Congratulations you have just won $3600.
2) If you're expected to lose 11 times per table round, no worries, you still would lose the same ($300 x 11 = $3300) per table round.
More profit with no vig to pay
If you have the bank roll to keep you going (I'm thinking 5k bankroll)
Something else to consider looking at:
1) Sitting back and watching all the shooters to see what they roll will pay off tremendously for you.
(Example: When Bob 69.5 shoots the dice, In many occasions he is most likely to throw a 5-6 or 9 and multiple 7's on comeout roll, but also noticed in the past couple months he never rolls a 4)
2) May be a better deal to Lay more money on less numbers, which brings up the question:
What are the odds of losing $1800/Lay on one number as opposed to losing a 300/Lay on each of the numbers?
I know if I was to play this way, I'd definately keep an eye out for DI's setting all 7's on comeout roll.
On a smaller scale for those who do choose to play this way:
1) 4= $30/Lay, 5= $30/Lay, 6= $30/Lay, 8= $30/Lay, 9= $30/Lay, 10= $30/Lay (Total wager = $180 per shooter, per table round.
2) Recommended bank roll $800.
Quote: mdsJust throwing this out to the masses. I know the answer. I understand the house edge however and there is no "system". How about laying the 4,5,6,8,9,10 for say 200 each only on the come out roll? If a point is established take everything off. After the point is established take all the lay bets down. You lose 200. If the 7 come up on the come out roll you win 1200ish? In other words you are putting up 200 to win 1200ish -vig? Why not? In craps the house edge is always against you anyway and 1/6 times the 7 will come up. Did I just answer my own question? What is the math on this play?
why does this have to be on the come out roll? you can do this any roll.
Quote: mdsJust throwing this out to the masses. I know the answer. I understand the house edge however and there is no "system". How about laying the 4,5,6,8,9,10 for say 200 each only on the come out roll? If a point is established take everything off. After the point is established take all the lay bets down. You lose 200. If the 7 come up on the come out roll you win 1200ish? In other words you are putting up 200 to win 1200ish -vig? Why not? In craps the house edge is always against you anyway and 1/6 times the 7 will come up. Did I just answer my own question? What is the math on this play?
1200-ish? Yeah this would be a great play if all those lay bet paid even money. Too bad they all pay less.
Ummmm, because all those dice influencers can roll so many sevens.Quote: sodawaterwhy does this have to be on the come out roll? you can do this any roll.
why does this have to be on the come out roll? you can do this any roll.
Quote: SanchoPanzaUmmmm, because all those dice influencers can roll so many sevens.
Because it's the come out roll that many shooters will "Roll for a 7" all other times, they roll for points.
Quote: CrapsGeniousBecause it's the come out roll that many shooters will "Roll for a 7" all other times, they roll for points.
They may roll for a 7 but they get Random each and every time they roll.
Its like jumping out the window and flapping your arms with the hope and belief that you will fly; you will fall. Each and every time, you will fall. Your hopes and expectations and grip on the dice mean zilch.
Quote: FleaStiffThey may roll for a 7 but they get Random each and every time they roll.
Its like jumping out the window and flapping your arms with the hope and belief that you will fly; you will fall. Each and every time, you will fall. Your hopes and expectations and grip on the dice mean zilch.
DI's aside every shooter hopes to roll the 7 on comeout. even random shooters.
Quote: CrapsGeniousDI's aside every shooter hopes to roll the 7 on comeout. even random shooters.
These threads have to stop having such ambiguous titles :)
CG, let me ask this. What exactly does "hope" have to do with probability?
Quote: TomspurThese threads have to stop having such ambiguous titles :)
Naw, that's half the fun. ;)
Quote: CrapsGenious
Because it's the come out roll that many shooters will "Roll for a 7" all other times, they roll for points.
I hate when I'm watching a shooter and it's so blatantly obvious he's not rolling for a 7.
Quote: TomspurThese threads have to stop having such ambiguous titles :)
CG, let me ask this. What exactly does "hope" have to do with probability?
Hope as in reference to "random" shooters rolling for a 7 on comeout.
DI's who use the "all 7 sets" are more likely to hit repeating 7's on comeout.
Quote: michael99000I hate when I'm watching a shooter and it's so blatantly obvious he's not rolling for a 7.
I hate that too sometimes, I know it does get expensive after a while.
I stopped shooting for 7's because it inter-fears with my firebet numbers. By using the "all 7 set" you may please the players at the table but if a number happens to come out, it will be random and will most likely be a repeated firebet point.
Quote: CrapsGeniousHope as in reference to "random" shooters rolling for a 7 on comeout.
DI's who use the "all 7 sets" are more likely to hit repeating 7's on comeout.
I guess that depends on if you believe in "DI's"?
I believe in Math and according to the math you have a 1 in 6 chance of hitting a 7 anytime, anywhere during the game. According to me that never changes.
I do understand what you are saying but according to me your statement makes no sense......
But then again, I'm not the smartest M&M in the packet so, yeah :)
Quote: CrapsGeniousDI's aside every shooter hopes to roll the 7 on comeout. even random shooters.
Especially those who shoot from the don't pass.
Quote: wudgedEspecially those who shoot from the don't pass.
The DC maybe. Unless that was a joke that got past me.
I too believe in the math. That is why I play DP with odds only. I know, -EV however for craps im making the best play I possibly can. I also believe in the intangibles as well. That's another reason why I play craps and actually win more times than not.
Quote: mdsThat's another reason why I play craps and actually win more times than not.
Me too. One time I won 2 bets and lost 1. Then I went home...lol
Quote: mds"I believe in Math and according to the math you have a 1 in 6 chance of hitting a 7 anytime, anywhere during the game. According to me that never changes."
I too believe in the math. That is why I play DP with odds only. I know, -EV however for craps im making the best play I possibly can. I also believe in the intangibles as well. That's another reason why I play craps and actually win more times than not.
Winning more times than not is easy. I can give you a betting system that will win MUCH more often than it loses.
Winning more money than you lose is the tricky part.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWinning more times than not is easy. I can give you a betting system that will win MUCH more often than it loses.
Winning more money than you lose is the tricky part.
The trick is leaving the casino. Many times people are up, but if you're still there, good luck to you.
I got to agree with you there, just because a guy calls himself a DI does mean a thing, just because a
guy sets the dice on the 3 v does not mean anything.Thats like saying everyone that you see with a gun
is a good shot or even better every one that you see with a set of golf clubs shoots par.
the vast majority of people that think they are DI's cant consistently control the dice anymore than
they can control the weather, and anyone that suggests they can make money every time they play with
a DI must believe their fortunes are based on their bit coins and the stock WPWR.
There are certainly some good players that can set for a 7 and hit more than normal, but that is not
the majority.
dicesetter
Anyways about the lay bets. I tried that strategy a few times where I'd put $25 on the don't pass and then I'd lay the 4 to save me the $6 of hopping the 7's. The problem is I've gotten cleaned out from 4 being the point 5 times in a row. Another time 10 was the point 5 times in a row, and if they roll the 10 I'm losing double my bet.
Quote: guitarmandpI know this strategy is laughed at by many but I like to hop the 7's to cover most (not all) of my don't pass bet, I know it costs me 20% of my winnings, but I've been cleaned out before by tables that have multiple come out rolls like this; 7,11, 7, 7;
Anyways about the lay bets. I tried that strategy a few times where I'd put $25 on the don't pass and then I'd lay the 4 to save me the $6 of hopping the 7's. The problem is I've gotten cleaned out from 4 being the point 5 times in a row. Another time 10 was the point 5 times in a row, and if they roll the 10 I'm losing double my bet.
$50 DP
$50 lay 4 (to win 25) -$1 vig
$50 lay 10 (to win 25) -$1 vig
$3 easy 4 hop, $3 easy 10 hop
-7: -50 DP, -6 hoppers, +50 on the lays [-8 net] -- 1/6 the time
-easy 4/10: +40 hoppers, -51 lay, take down the other lay (no affect in net), BUT you have a $50 DP bet that wins 2/3 the time and is paid $50, making your DP's EV ~ +$33.33, for a +$21.33 net/EV -- 1/9 the time
-hard 4/10: -6 hoppers, -51 lay, take down the other lay (no affect in net), but your $50 DP has a 2/3 chance to win making it ~+$33 EV, for a net/EV of -$24 -- 1/18 the time
-other (inside) numbers: -6 hoppers, take down both lays (no affect in net), BUT your $50 DP has +EV if point is 5,6,8,9 -- 1/2 the time (i think?). I don't feel like figuring out the EV for those numbers....but you have -6 for hoppers PLUS DP's EV.
-YO-Eleven: -50 DP, -6 hoppers, for -56 net -- 1/18 the time
-12: -6 hoppers, -6 net -- 1/36 the time
--2 or 3: +50 DP, -6 hoppers, +44 net -- 1/12 the time
Some of the numbers might be off by 1 or 2 since my brain's a little fuzzy right now and the $1 vig thing always f***s with me.
Of course, every bet your make in attempt to hedge your bets is simply increasing your disadvantage....but by hedging your bets in such a way, you reduce variance. Of course, you're hoping for a 2 or 3 on the come out roll....and oddly enough, the next best thing for you is an easy 4 or easy 10.
