Making a living playing craps?
Is there actually a way to grind out $50-$100.usd a day playing craps in Las Vegas and living happily ever after? It must be related to discipline but I don't know which wagers etc.. Most of them seemed to be on the pass line with single or double odds despite 100X being on offer.
It wasn't a hobby, all of them were serious, no emotions shown.
craps is a very tough game to beat without cheating. the best you can do is play to pick up "sleepers" on crowded games but even that is of nebulous legal status.
the only people who make money off "discipline" are dominatrixes. "Discipline" doesn't make a dent in the house edge.
Probably just a group of financially secure dudes enjoying a hobby.
+1Quote: sodawaterwhat you saw was retired guys killing time. they weren't making a living.
Those old guys were no different than old guys who are at the golf course every day.
Quote: sodawaterwhat you saw was retired guys killing time. they weren't making a living.
craps is a very tough game to beat without cheating. the best you can do is play to pick up "sleepers" on crowded games but even that is of nebulous legal status.
the only people who make money off "discipline" are dominatrixes. "Discipline" doesn't make a dent in the house edge.
What sort of cheating do you refer? And should we assume they are waiting for someone to doze off(or die) and then grab his chips?
Quote: Beethoven9th+1
Those old guys were no different than old guys who are at the golf course every day.
I guess that's possible, some others must play poker all day, and some even bridge and gin rummy. But the craps crowd caught my eye back then as I also like craps and I'm close to retirement. In addition, there weren't stools provided in the 90's.
Quote: sodawater
the only people who make money off "discipline" are dominatrixes.
That must be a tough life. We have it here but it's all fake, the women just need and want money. They don't actually enjoy whipping guys tied up and hung by their ankles. Not to digress but putting knock out drugs in the guys drink or on their nipples has become more and more the norm vs. actually providing a painful service to him/them. The ladyboys are also in full force.
Quote: NokTangWhat sort of cheating do you refer? And should we assume they are waiting for someone to doze off(or die) and then grab his chips?
Sleepers are bets that people abandon, or forget they made. You can claim them if you're quick and paying attention.
Another way to angle out an edge is to keep come or DC odds working on a comeout roll on a busy table. Sometimes the dealers will return your odds if you lose.
1) Shill. This position does exist but is said to only be useful for the Poker rooms. It's possible having someone at a craps table might be useful but not so many.
2)There was some talk about syndicates in Macau. I'm sure whoever bets for the pool would be paid something and keep the perks such as points. Doubtful for small stakes.
3)Hustlers. Maybe they bet small and hustle people for tips for winning them money, but seems the employees would not like this.
All in all, doesn't seem likely even offshoots from playing would put them into positive territory.
Quote: sodawaterwhat you saw was retired guys killing time. they weren't making a living.
Agreed, especially if they were just betting $1 chips.
But there is the possibility of someone getting lucky and having a good run. And someone who did have a good run, or two, might be inclined to hang out a shingle that says "professional," but the reality is they just got lucky.
Of course the other way to be a "professional" and make a living playing craps is to teach the game. I'm surprised no one mentioned that yet.
They have music, specials, somewhere to go, someone to be with... its a retirement routine. Its a small town Senior Center moved to the reality of Las Vegas and the reality of losses is worth it to them because otherwise all they have is the reality of match sticks.Quote: sodawaterwhat you saw was retired guys killing time. they weren't making a living.
Quote: mdsYes, the edge isn't on your side but with such a low HE cant you really have the edge sometimes?
Nope!
Quote:2 years of winning (Knock on wood) has been just dumb luck! Dammm!
I'm right there with you brother. I admit that I am lucky and play infrequently enough that I can sustain positive variance on the order of years.
Quote:Dark side and wait. No emotion. I feel I do have discipline. I feel it works. What would you do at this table... Play the dp, first roll 8, put odds, next comes a 7. Winner. Same thing happens 5 more times. You are up whatever you are up and walk! DONT LOOK BACK! Session 1 over and walked a winner. discipline? Luck? both? Do I think this will happen all the time, no. The 7 does always come up at some point. Look, you need a roll one way or the other and it seems to me the 7 will come up more times than not. odds are a good guide to use but they aren't the gospel.
Yes, you are experiencing luck, also known as positive variance.
Admit that you are bucking a small disadvantage and you will be a happier person when it inevitably all comes crashing down. What happens when the first 5 bets all lose due to made points? Have you never sat down at a hot table? It will happen.
The thing is, in no way can you count on this. In fact I would have to say that the perversity of hoping for it, if you need it, would mean you are almost certainly doomed. The guy who would succeed would be the guy who doesn't need the money.
If you lived in Las Vegas and had a $10k bankroll, you might be able to make $100 a day playing the darkside religiously.
Quote: odiousgambitYou can never get the edge, but simulation shows you can be a lifetime winner at Craps. To have much of a chance, it needs to be at least 10X odds IMO. I say "my opinion" because the subjective thing is the percentage; two might disagree over whether a 30% chance is "much of a chance", just to pick a number.
You are doing it wrong. To maximize your chances of being a lifetime winner, play until you are ahead any amount, and then never play again. Probabilities exceeding 99.999% are possible without leaving Vegas.
Quote: ClarkWGriswoldThe math doesn't suggest it, however;
If you lived in Las Vegas and had a $10k bankroll, you might be able to make $100 a day playing the darkside religiously.
I would think so, but it seems like at least once a week you might go down 2-3000.usd in a session and then have too big a hill to climb back up. The secret would be avoiding the big losses.
Quote: NokTangI would think so, but it seems like at least once a week you might go down 2-3000.usd in a session and then have too big a hill to climb back up. The secret would be avoiding the big losses.
Yes, avoiding the big loss (particularly on a single hot shooter) is the key to dark side success. When people cry of dark side losses, it is always from chasing a single shooter. Getting stung by a run of consecutive shooters (while mathematically equivalent) is practically less likely (at least in my experience). Smart advice even if you're not trying to make a living on it.
Quote: ClarkWGriswoldThe math doesn't suggest it, however;
If you lived in Las Vegas and had a $10k bankroll, you might be able to make $100 a day playing the darkside religiously.
OK, then where are these religious darksiders?
Quote: darthvaderYes, avoiding the big loss (particularly on a single hot shooter) is the key to dark side success. When people cry of dark side losses, it is always from chasing a single shooter. Getting stung by a run of consecutive shooters (while mathematically equivalent) is practically less likely (at least in my experience). Smart advice even if you're not trying to make a living on it.
With limited live action in my area, I will sometimes play the game on this site. Quitting after winning $1000.usd and betting $100.usd on the don't with single odds laid. I assume it's computer generated and random. I can say I win three out of four "sessions" but that fourth kills me. I guess I could quit and start over if get down $1000.usd? Reset the game or just log off etc..
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou are doing it wrong. To maximize your chances of being a lifetime winner, play until you are ahead any amount, and then never play again.
What I mean by being a lifetime winner, is to continue playing as a matter of definition. The complication comes from what would be lifetime Action to one person, and lifetime Action to another. Wincraps simulation has shown "some percent" of lifetime winners for 50,000 and 100,000 rolls. But that's lifetime for some, not for others.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceplay until you are ahead any amount, and then never play again.
Who does that anyway?
Quote: me10x odds or more exclusively.
Who does that anyway? You need a huge bankroll.
Quote: AcesAndEightsNope!
I'm right there with you brother. I admit that I am lucky and play infrequently enough that I can sustain positive variance on the order of years.
Yes, you are experiencing luck, also known as positive variance.
Admit that you are bucking a small disadvantage and you will be a happier person when it inevitably all comes crashing down. What happens when the first 5 bets all lose due to made points? Have you never sat down at a hot table? It will happen.
Answers for you.
Yes sadly I have lost. Built a wing at the Bellagio due to losses at the Mirage. that was years ago and as you know you mature and hopefully get smarter as you age.. I have been very lucky for almost 3 years (Knock on wood again) and I am very careful of the bubble bursting. I know it should/will...
Ok, I can Accept your answer of "Nope" Don't like it but totally accept it.
Is 10 times a year for four hours a day for 3 day trips considered infrequent?
I will never see 5 points made as I leave the table after two points made. But, Then I might start going with the shooter. After all a hot table is a hot table. :)
So, can we put the odds in our favor due to intangibles like discipline. Knowing (Guessing) when to sit out a roll, when to leave the table or by just leaving a winner and not looking back? Or is the math the math?
Quote: AlanMendelsonAgreed, especially if they were just betting $1 chips.
But there is the possibility of someone getting lucky and having a good run. And someone who did have a good run, or two, might be inclined to hang out a shingle that says "professional," but the reality is they just got lucky.
Of course the other way to be a "professional" and make a living playing craps is to teach the game. I'm surprised no one mentioned that yet.
I simulated 2 players; both only played line bets with full 10x odds, but odds bets off in come-out. One player made all come bets all the time, with full odds etc, the other player never made a come bet. Starting bankroll zero. They never pressed. For the first 5 trials, both were lifetime losers. On the 6th, however, the latter player was up about 4200 units [not dollars] after that one millionth roll. At a $10 table, $42,000. At one point he was down almost $23,000. The other player, who naturally had a lot more action, was down at one million rolls.
Am I trying to encourage someone to think he can be a lifetime winner at craps? No. This guy was lucky to need such a small bankroll. Yes, small - compared to typical. The reality of 10x odds or more is huge bankroll requirements. And of course, lucky period. But not insanely lucky, on the 6th attempt I simulated a winner, you can conclude what you like from that. The problems IMO in order of consequence are:
*needing a large bankroll and the true willingness to see it gone
*needing luck to win or only have modest losses ultimately [that the player will be down huge at some point is almost a given]
*sticking to bets that keep HE close to zero. These guys should have turned on the odds during the come-out, for example.
*bottom line: although being a lifetime winner is possible, nobody does this.
Sorry. Its early and I've not had coffee (or anything stronger) yet.Quote: odiousgambitI decided to use wincraps
I read that as deciding to use witchcraft.
I can't help but think its a scalper's game. Get in, get out. Get lucky or get lost.
Quote: darthvaderGetting stung by a run of consecutive shooters (while mathematically equivalent) is practically less likely (at least in my experience)..
Sweet. So those dice know when they're going to a different shooter?
I'd be less concerned about beating craps and more concerned that the dice are achieving sentience.
They probably don't even know about the Odds Bet, though I sure would not recommend you become some craps tutor for the casino. It often annoys people to have someone yapping at them when they are having fun losing money. And if they are there with a broad they don't want you moving in on the broad or showing them up to her as being ignorant of the "manly" game of craps!Quote: PhattyDAt an indian casino I frequent, I've noticed a lot of players don't play odds on thier line bets. Might be able to ask these players if I could play behind them. Would be pretty bold, but profitable.
Quote: PhattyDAt an indian casino I frequent, I've noticed a lot of players don't play odds on thier line bets. Might be able to ask these players if I could play behind them. Would be pretty bold, but profitable.
Is that casino down toward Needles?
Quote: sabreSweet. So those dice know when they're going to a different shooter?
I'd be less concerned about beating craps and more concerned that the dice are achieving sentience.
Now that right there, that is funny. Lol
Quote: petroglyphIs that casino down toward Needles?
Only if Needles is a town in ND. Or if Needles is that homeless guy I drive by on the way there.
Quote: PhattyDOnly if Needles is a town in ND. Or if Needles is that homeless guy I drive by on the way there.
Referencing the op, I'm sure someone can make a living playing craps. The only question is for how long.
To PhattyD, I posted too quickly without looking at your bio, I thought you were in Nevada. I was asking about Needles California near an Indian casino that I frequent. Oops.
Quote: hook3670"Combining the pass line with the odds, the overall house edge is 0.021%. I'm quite sure that is the lowest house edge on a table game anywhere in Vegas." The Wizard wrote this in his review of the Casino Royale. Now I think they have changed their rules since. However, if this still existed and you combined this with a somewhat generous players card, would you be able to grind out a small profit in the long run playing this?
To get the HE down that low requires very high odds. That ups the variance higher than many players can endure. Variance is why Vegas wins much more than the math suggests.
Quote: hook3670"Combining the pass line with the odds, the overall house edge is 0.021%. I'm quite sure that is the lowest house edge on a table game anywhere in Vegas." The Wizard wrote this in his review of the Casino Royale. Now I think they have changed their rules since. However, if this still existed and you combined this with a somewhat generous players card, would you be able to grind out a small profit in the long run playing this?
Only if they are dumb enough to include your odds in your rating.
In other words, if you are playing $5 pass line with $500 odds, most places will rate you at $5, not $500 or $505.
Since the odds bet doesn't change the EV, you will lose the same amount, after comps, as you would if you were playing $5 with no odds. The variance will just be much, much higher.
Now, if they DID rate you for the odds bet and comp you accordingly, then you could certainly do very well to be treated as a $500 player while losing an average of 7 cents per decision. But I'm pretty sure that they are not that dumb.
Quote: darthvaderTo get the HE down that low requires very high odds. That ups the variance higher than many players can endure. Variance is why Vegas wins much more than the math suggests.
Could you define "variance" for me?
Quote: Sonny44Could you define "variance" for me?
In gross terms, it refers to the possible spread of results. That is, even if the average expected loss per session is very low, some sessions will see significant losses, while others will see significant wins. It's due to the natural variation of the game. The casino has an infinite bankroll, while the player does not. So often a significant loss will "break" a player, not allowing him the chance to win it back.
Quote: darthvaderIn gross terms, it refers to the possible spread of results. That is, even if the average expected loss per session is very low, some sessions will see significant losses, while others will see significant wins. It's due to the natural variation of the game. The casino has an infinite bankroll, while the player does not. So often a significant loss will "break" a player, not allowing him the chance to win it back.
Three points:
1. The casino does not have an infinite bankroll. This is one reason that they have max bets.
2. In a -EV game, high variance helps the player and hurts the casino (at least, in some sense). The player cannot win without variance. The maximum bet that the casino can (or, at least, should) accept is limited by variance. In general, when you have the edge, low variance is beneficial because you can make larger bets with that edge.
3. The claim that higher variance leads the casino to show higher wins than they otherwise would is untrue. While it is true that several players will lose more and bust out faster than they otherwise would with lower variance, this is exactly offset by the players who win. Just like no betting system can beat a negative expectation game, no betting system can change the expectation of a game to be "more negative". The expectation is the expectation, and that (multiplied by the total amount bet) defines what the casino will win in the long term, assuming that they do not bust out first.
Yes, small profit.... until you get TOO MANY of those comped drinks and too many sequences against you. If you have to include air fare, your profit evaporates. If you live in Vegas.... you will probably make just about enough to wonder if a different hobby would have been more fun.
Quote: darthvaderTo get the HE down that low requires very high odds. That ups the variance higher than many players can endure. Variance is why Vegas wins much more than the math suggests.
Caesars, Cosmo, Harrah's do count odds in your avg...
Some are and do. Even in Vegas. This is why I am always carfull to include the word "unless" when I say systems dont work.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBut I'm pretty sure that they are not that dumb.
