CrAPs FIrEBet Hedge to Profits.
Fire bet pays: (4 numbers pays 25/1) (5 numbers Pays 250/1) (6 numbers pays 1000/1)
1) Place 5.00 on the fire bet.
2) When 3 out of 6 points get established, 4 fire bet points made will pay $125.00. Simply (Lay up to $120 on the 4th number) If 7 out or 4th point made, you are in profit.
3) When 4 out of 6 points get established, 5 fire bet points made will pay $1250.00. Simply (Lay up to $1200 on the 5th number) If 7 out or 5th point made, you are in profit.
4) When 5 out of 6 points get established, 6 fire bet points made will pay $5000.00. Simply (Lay up to $3000 on the 5th number) If 7 out or 6th point made, you are in profit.
This is a very good hedge that can profit quite a bite without risking much of your bank roll.
Enjoy and Merry Christmas.
Question #2: why post something like this?
Quote: odiousgambitSometimes lower case, sometimes not, in the subject line has me puzzled. You are a person who starts to yell, stops yourself, then loses control again, over a matter of seconds?
Question #2: why post something like this?
Sorry, I can't edit the subject line but I fixed the CAPS in the paragraph section odiousgambit.
lets say 4, 5, 6
Then the shooter throws an 8. So now you lay the 8 for $120. If they hit the 8 how do you make money on the fire? or is it because not you can hedge the larger amount on the 5th number?
Quote: GWAEso you wait until there are 3 points made.
lets say 4, 5, 6
Then the shooter throws an 8. So now you lay the 8 for $120. If they hit the 8 how do you make money on the fire? or is it because not you can hedge the larger amount on the 5th number?
Exactly GWAE, I want to lose the 4th bet, because then I can hedge for a larger amount on that 5th number to the fire.
I want the shooter to make the numbers but keeping in mind it's easier to roll the "7" so I would hedge (Lay as much as my bank roll allows when the 5th number to the fire gets established.
Quote: GWAEIf they hit the 8 how do you make money on the fire?
The fire bet pays when 4 numbers are hit. If the 8 isn't hit and it is still alive with 4 numbers, either the 8 eventually hits or eventually you collect on the 7-out with laid 8.
Quote: GWAEyou can hedge the larger amount on the 5th number?
it's just the same thing continued, you can lock in a win of some kind.
I have to back off from my sarcasm, if 3 numbers are hit with a fire bet, it might be a good idea to lock in a win. In a session, there must be a fair chance for some shooter to hit 3 numbers. Me, I'm not betting $5 on each shooter, though. Nor laying so much on some 4th number.
Quote: odiousgambitThe fire bet pays when 4 numbers are hit. If the 8 isn't hit and it is still alive with 4 numbers, either the 8 eventually hits or eventually you collect on the 7-out with laid 8.
it's just the same thing continued, you can lock in a win of some kind.
I have to back off from my sarcasm, if 3 numbers are hit with a fire bet, it might be a good idea to lock in a win. In a session, there must be a fair chance for some shooter to hit 3 numbers. Me, I'm not betting $5 on each shooter, though. Nor laying so much on some 4th number.
I agree with you odiousgambit, the $5.00 fire bets do add up. Many times I will see the best of shooters 7 out after just a couple rolls and just the other day a brand new random shooter approached the table and made 4 numbers to the fire, followed by repeating the 9 and then 7 out. I still made on my lay along with the $125.00 fire.
There is a regular shooter that made 6 number fire bet on thanksgiving paying out $5000.00 that day, even though I lost a (3 number lay of $120 + 1000 lay + $2500 lay totaling $3620.00) I still made a profit of 1380.00 that day but I was really banking on the "7 out" as many shooters are unlikely to make more than 3 numbers I win more $120.00 lays.
I also try to recognize shooters that make certain numbers and then make a couple bets to build up my bank roll but not too heavy.
Quote: AlanMendelsonA few weeks ago at Caesars, when 5-points on the fire bet were made twice at the same table, a shooter "hedged" both times. He hedged the 5th point. All that did was lower his actual profit on the five point payoff. He did not hedge on the sixth point because the shooter did not establish the sixth point -- he had a repeater to overcome.
That's pointless to hedge anything if a repeater number is made because your paid regardless. That's just a gamble on his part.
Better to just gamble by playing the "Don't Pass Line" at come out for a percentage and if a repeater point is established, place the point and collect some extra. (Not Recommended)
Merry Christmas anyway...
Quote:So if I win $5000 on the Firebet I lose $4320 in hedges! Now that is a craps genious! Then the state comes and pulls out taxes (in some places) Sheer effin genious.
Merry Christmas anyway...
Correct. It's better to win guaranteed money because the 6 number fire bet only happens a few times but the 3 to 4 number hedges occur much more often giving better profits in the hedge.
Quote: Beethoven9thWe could all learn a lot from this "genious".
We can safely scratch proper spelling off the list.
Quote: JBWe can safely scratch proper spelling off the list.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=genious
For some reason I am prone to the same mistake, so I was not the right guy to point this out. Lower case/upper case mix a different matter; still puzzles me.
Quote: drussell0208If you were going to hedge why not just switch to the don't pass after the third point is made? Much smaller HE.
Not really because:
1) You make the don't pass bet
2) You need to protect it with the any seven and yo eleven bet and hope the shooter rolls for the next point to fire or gamble by placing the point if repeated number comes.
3) You would have to repeat the process for 4th and 5th points.
Easier to keep it simple and just lay (Hedge) the point after it is established.
Quote: AlanDon't hedge nuttin'.
It is your choice to hedge or not, but then you're back to gambling. Good luck.
That is an interesting statement......... if your not hedging your gambling
I would suggest the more you hedge the more you are gambling because every
bet on the table has a house advantage and is a contract with the casino, the more bets
you make, and a hedge is a bet, the more your expected lose per roll. PERIOD
Now there are hedges built in the nature of the game, particularly if you play games
like fire bet and all tall small. You try to hit a seven on the come out with the fire bet
to cover it. It is not really a hedge because you have to bet the pass line anyway, but it
works like one. The all, tall,small you may increase your pass line bet to cover the
3 bets in case you do throw a 7, and the triple pass line bet still carries a player
advantage on the come out roll.
I could see hedging the last number i needed for a 6 point fire bet, but i am not hedging the
number i need for the forth or fifth number, that is just giving money to the casino.
If i wanted to use a craps set on the come out if i have come bets working i may take a horn high
yo or horn high 12, because my set gives me a chance to make it, while at the same time avoiding a 7.
IN general the hedges most people use have worse odds than what they are hedging..... very very bad
idea.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterCrapsGenious
That is an interesting statement......... if your not hedging your gambling
I would suggest the more you hedge the more you are gambling because every
bet on the table has a house advantage and is a contract with the casino, the more bets
you make, and a hedge is a bet, the more your expected lose per roll. PERIOD
Now there are hedges built in the nature of the game, particularly if you play games
like fire bet and all tall small. You try to hit a seven on the come out with the fire bet
to cover it. It is not really a hedge because you have to bet the pass line anyway, but it
works like one. The all, tall,small you may increase your pass line bet to cover the
3 bets in case you do throw a 7, and the triple pass line bet still carries a player
advantage on the come out roll.
I could see hedging the last number i needed for a 6 point fire bet, but i am not hedging the
number i need for the forth or fifth number, that is just giving money to the casino.
If i wanted to use a craps set on the come out if i have come bets working i may take a horn high
yo or horn high 12, because my set gives me a chance to make it, while at the same time avoiding a 7.
IN general the hedges most people use have worse odds than what they are hedging..... very very bad
idea.
dicesetter
I'm simply guaranteeing a win on both sides. Yes the win is smaller close to 50% on both sides but the risk is nothing to call it "gambling"
Also hedging after the 3rd and also 4th are both parts that make the most profit for me lately since noticing many shooters just can't roll more than 3 or 4 points then 7 out.
Quote: DeMangoComplete the sentence; "You can't fix _____"
Not commenting any more.
Quote: CrapsGeniousI'm simply guaranteeing a win on both sides. Yes the win is smaller close to 50% on both sides but the risk is nothing to call it "gambling"
More advice from the "genious".
Quote: DeMangoComplete the sentence; "You can't fix _____"
Genious?
Quote: ontariodealerI don't like hedging myself but one of my smarter players where i deal starts a doey don't after the third puck and lays off of his don't.
I start with $200.00
1) Place $5.00/passline, $5.00/firebet, $1.00/any crap.
2) Place $25.00/don't come and $2.00 Eleven with no odds yet on passline bet.
3) place $5.00 on all the numbers accept for the DC number and established point, $5.00/come, $10 odds on passline bet.
4) place $10 odds behind every come bet to the number, return $5.00/come and repeat.
If DC Point comes:
1) leave all bets and odds up, $25/don't come, $10 any 7 and continue normal play.
If "7" out then start at beginning.
After each session I will double up on my bets when bankroll exceeds $300.00
Play here and try it for yourself
https://wizardofodds.com/play/craps/v2/
Quote: CrapsGenious
There is a regular shooter that made 6 number fire bet on thanksgiving paying out $5000.00 that day, even though I lost a (3 number lay of $120 + 1000 lay + $2500 lay totaling $3620.00) I still made a profit of 1380.00 that day but I was really banking on the "7 out" as many shooters are unlikely to make more than 3 numbers I win more $120.00 lays.
Just what kind of reasoning do you use when playing craps? You bet a bad bet, then you make it worst with all your lays, it just doesn't make any sense. Why in the world would you be banking on the seven-out, you would make more money on the shooter making the point. I'm still shaking my head on this one. No wonder the casinos are still in business.
Quote: DeMango
So if I win $5000 on the Firebet I lose $4320 in hedges! Now that is a craps genious! Then the state comes and pulls out taxes (in some places) Sheer effin genious.
For some odd reason you took the words right out of my mouth!
...
player 1 (the hedger) $5 fire bet, started hedging after the third point and stopped his place bets after the 4th point was made.....made about $1900
player 2 (the presser) no fire bet starts $110 inside and presses early and often.....starts with 25 on the line. full odds (3.4.5) and increases his line bet after each pass .....25.50.60.100.150.200.250.300.400.500.600 lost....made about 34,000.
The first guy had more confidence that the shooter would not make the 5 or 6 points and was more interested
in some profit than it all.
The second guy, now that is a discussion that could fill a book.
Couple thoughts come to mind......1 i would not want to know what that guy loses in a year
2...that guy does not want to know what he loses in a year.
3 the first thing is anyone that does not care how much they lose
can do that. Lots of good shooters have a good many rolls over
40 and some over 50 or more each year, and each of those would
have winnings of many thousands if we wanted to bet like he did.
Winning hugh is easy, all you have to do is bet huge, sooner or later you will hit that roll, if you last that long
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterThat is really not comparing apples to apples.
The first guy had more confidence that the shooter would not make the 5 or 6 points and was more interested
in some profit than it all.
The second guy, now that is a discussion that could fill a book.
Couple thoughts come to mind......1 i would not want to know what that guy loses in a year
2...that guy does not want to know what he loses in a year.
3 the first thing is anyone that does not care how much they lose
can do that. Lots of good shooters have a good many rolls over
40 and some over 50 or more each year, and each of those would
have winnings of many thousands if we wanted to bet like he did.
Winning hugh is easy, all you have to do is bet huge, sooner or later you will hit that roll, if you last that long
dicesetter
Tonight at the Casino, there was a newbie shooter had the dice for more than an hour repeating numbers and points. He made 5 points to the fire and 7 out just a few rolls later. I made an easy 2500 on that shooter but fealt very sorry for the Dark side better next to me who lost just under 2000 hoping the shooter would have ended his lucky streak. 13 other players cashed in between 7k - 13k from place betting and hard ways, 10 players collected on their $5.00 firebet. Amazing how that day does come for all of us eventually.
I never hedge the fourth point. I basically consider it an odds bet on my pass line and i don't bother with an odds bet.
I always hedge the fifth point. To minimize variance assuming a $5 pass line and a $5 fire,
4 or 10, Lay $720 (pay $738). If the point hits, you win $387 and if it doesn't you win $342.
5 or 9, Lay $660 (pay $682). If the point hits, you win $443 and if it doesn't you win $418.
6 or 8, Lay $600 (pay $625). If the point hits, you win $500 and if it doesn't you win $475.
I don't hedge the sixth point. That is a significant amount to me and equates to a lottery ticket. Usually I don't have any money in my rack to play it anyway because I lost off of my money in my hedge on the 5th point.
But if you did to minimize Variance, you would lay:
4 or 10 $1920 (pay $1968). If the point hits you win $907 and if it doesn't you win $912.
5 or 9 $1710 (pay $1767). If the point hits you win $1108 and if it doesn't you win $1083.
6 or 8 $1560 (pay $1625). If the point hits you win $1250 and if it doesn't you win $1235.
Please note that no matter what you do, laying the point REDUCES your expected value, so you are making a value judgement to reduce expected value with the bonus of reducing variance.
If Firebet gets rolled,
4 numbers made pays you 25 to 1 ($5.00 x 25 = $125) but you lose ($120/lay) = total "0" profit.
5 numbers made pays you 250 to 1 ($5.00 x 250 = $1250) but you lose ($750/lay 120/lay)= Total $380 Profit.
6 numbers made pays you 1000 to 1 ($5.00 x 1000 = $5000) but you lose (Max/lay, $750/lay, 120/lay)= Total $2200 Profit.
(Max/Lay = $1200/Lay6 or $1200/Lay8 or $1500/Lay5 or $1500/Lay9 or $2000/Lay4 or $2000/Lay10)
If 7 gets rolled before the firebet points,
4th number hedge ($120/lay) = total "100" profit.
5th number hedge ($750/lay + $125/fire) = "$625" profit -$120/lay = $500 take home profit.
6th number hedge (max/lay + $1250/fire) = "$2250" profit. - $750/lay -120/lay = $1380 take home profit.
Keep in mind that 7 is easier to roll than any other number.
Pure freakin "genious", I tell you!
I've always wondered what thee fire bet hedge people do when the point is a repeat?
point 6, winner 6
point 5, winner 5
point 10, winner 10
point 8, winner 8
point 5. Now what?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI think that "8 years" number is just going to keep getting bigger.
I've always wondered what thee fire bet hedge people do when the point is a repeat?
point 6, winner 6
point 5, winner 5
point 10, winner 10
point 8, winner 8
point 5. Now what?
Good question, simple answer.
1) Don't hedge firebet points already made.
2) wait for new point
3) if 7 out then, oh well, tomorrow is another day (no major losses) I still collect $125 for the 4 number fire.
If it wasn't a repeat, then it's a guarantee $500 profit day.
Unfortunately if the next number is a repeat, just stick it out or start over with next shooter if 7 is rolled.
If you don't hedge the firebet, then its best not to bet it at all because of the house edge being so high.
Quote: CrapsGeniousIf you don't hedge the firebet, then its best not to bet it at all because of the house edge being so high.
Hey "genious", if you love hedging so much, how come you don't play the doey don't all the time??? The ultimate hedge!
Quote: Beethoven9thHey "genious", if you love hedging so much, how come you don't play the doey don't all the time??? The ultimate hedge!
I do only when I shoot. because I set the dice on come out to avoid the 12 crap. Actually there is a bet I've never mentioned that is much better than hedging the fire and pays just about the same and is also easier to roll. I will start a new thread and post it later.
Quote: CrapsGeniousI do only when I shoot. because I set the dice on come out to avoid the 12 crap. Actually there is a bet I've never mentioned that is much better than hedging the fire and pays just about the same and is also easier to roll. I will start a new thread and post it later.
I gotta give you credit. If you really do play the doey don't, then at least you practice what you preach in regards to hedging!
Quote: CrapsGenious
Quote: Beethoven9thHey "genious", if you love hedging so much, how come you don't play the doey don't all the time??? The ultimate hedge!
I do only when I shoot.
You can't script it better than this.
Quote: CrapsGeniousHere is better detail of the firebet hedging:
If Firebet gets rolled,
4 numbers made pays you 25 to 1 ($5.00 x 25 = $125) but you lose ($120/lay) = total "0" profit.
5 numbers made pays you 250 to 1 ($5.00 x 250 = $1250) but you lose ($750/lay 120/lay)= Total $380 Profit.
6 numbers made pays you 1000 to 1 ($5.00 x 1000 = $5000) but you lose (Max/lay, $750/lay, 120/lay)= Total $2200 Profit.
(Max/Lay = $1200/Lay6 or $1200/Lay8 or $1500/Lay5 or $1500/Lay9 or $2000/Lay4 or $2000/Lay10)
If 7 gets rolled before the firebet points,
4th number hedge ($120/lay) = total "100" profit.
5th number hedge ($750/lay + $125/fire) = "$625" profit -$120/lay = $500 take home profit.
6th number hedge (max/lay + $1250/fire) = "$2250" profit. - $750/lay -120/lay = $1380 take home profit.
Keep in mind that 7 is easier to roll than any other number.
I don't have time right this minute, but does anyone else want to know the probabilities behind these hedges? And I think all of the firebets get paid for 1 not to 1. The math geek in me really wants to know how bad theses hedges are.
Quote: mipletQuote: CrapsGeniousHere is better detail of the firebet hedging:
If Firebet gets rolled,
4 numbers made pays you 25 to 1 ($5.00 x 25 = $125) but you lose ($120/lay) = total "0" profit.
5 numbers made pays you 250 to 1 ($5.00 x 250 = $1250) but you lose ($750/lay 120/lay)= Total $380 Profit.
6 numbers made pays you 1000 to 1 ($5.00 x 1000 = $5000) but you lose (Max/lay, $750/lay, 120/lay)= Total $2200 Profit.
(Max/Lay = $1200/Lay6 or $1200/Lay8 or $1500/Lay5 or $1500/Lay9 or $2000/Lay4 or $2000/Lay10)
If 7 gets rolled before the firebet points,
4th number hedge ($120/lay) = total "100" profit.
5th number hedge ($750/lay + $125/fire) = "$625" profit -$120/lay = $500 take home profit.
6th number hedge (max/lay + $1250/fire) = "$2250" profit. - $750/lay -120/lay = $1380 take home profit.
Keep in mind that 7 is easier to roll than any other number.
I don't have time right this minute, but does anyone else want to know the probabilities behind these hedges? And I think all of the firebets get paid for 1 not to 1. The math geek in me really wants to know how bad theses hedges are.
As a matter of fact....yes, thanks!
Quote: mipletQuote: CrapsGeniousHere is better detail of the firebet hedging:
If Firebet gets rolled,
4 numbers made pays you 25 to 1 ($5.00 x 25 = $125) but you lose ($120/lay) = total "0" profit.
5 numbers made pays you 250 to 1 ($5.00 x 250 = $1250) but you lose ($750/lay 120/lay)= Total $380 Profit.
6 numbers made pays you 1000 to 1 ($5.00 x 1000 = $5000) but you lose (Max/lay, $750/lay, 120/lay)= Total $2200 Profit.
(Max/Lay = $1200/Lay6 or $1200/Lay8 or $1500/Lay5 or $1500/Lay9 or $2000/Lay4 or $2000/Lay10)
If 7 gets rolled before the firebet points,
4th number hedge ($120/lay) = total "100" profit.
5th number hedge ($750/lay + $125/fire) = "$625" profit -$120/lay = $500 take home profit.
6th number hedge (max/lay + $1250/fire) = "$2250" profit. - $750/lay -120/lay = $1380 take home profit.
Keep in mind that 7 is easier to roll than any other number.
I don't have time right this minute, but does anyone else want to know the probabilities behind these hedges? And I think all of the firebets get paid for 1 not to 1. The math geek in me really wants to know how bad theses hedges are.
I'm not sure what you're asking. The cost of the hedges? Or the total edge of fire + hedges?
This is going to depend on whether commission is charged up front or on wins only (I think that this differs from casino to casino?) But, yeah, it's gonna be bad. The total cost is a pain to compute because you often don't end up hedging (because of a repeat point). I think you have to go and recalculate the whole thing with the conditional lower payouts.
Personally, it's enough that I know that it's ugly. I don't need to know how ugly. :)
Quote: mipletQuote: CrapsGeniousHere is better detail of the firebet hedging:
If Firebet gets rolled,
4 numbers made pays you 25 to 1 ($5.00 x 25 = $125) but you lose ($120/lay) = total "0" profit.
5 numbers made pays you 250 to 1 ($5.00 x 250 = $1250) but you lose ($750/lay 120/lay)= Total $380 Profit.
6 numbers made pays you 1000 to 1 ($5.00 x 1000 = $5000) but you lose (Max/lay, $750/lay, 120/lay)= Total $2200 Profit.
(Max/Lay = $1200/Lay6 or $1200/Lay8 or $1500/Lay5 or $1500/Lay9 or $2000/Lay4 or $2000/Lay10)
If 7 gets rolled before the firebet points,
4th number hedge ($120/lay) = total "100" profit.
5th number hedge ($750/lay + $125/fire) = "$625" profit -$120/lay = $500 take home profit.
6th number hedge (max/lay + $1250/fire) = "$2250" profit. - $750/lay -120/lay = $1380 take home profit.
Keep in mind that 7 is easier to roll than any other number.
I don't have time right this minute, but does anyone else want to know the probabilities behind these hedges? And I think all of the firebets get paid for 1 not to 1. The math geek in me really wants to know how bad theses hedges are.
I think everyone knows they are awful bets, but sure if you want to quantify that awfulness I'd love to hear it also.
Let's assume new dice with sharp corners, which as CrapsGenious has pointed out are much more likely to produce 7s
Quote: michael99000I think everyone knows they are awful bets, but sure if you want to quantify that awfulness I'd love to hear it also.
lol, not everyone...
Quote: beachbumbabs
As a matter of fact....yes, thanks!
Ok I have a date with Excel google docs sometime in the near future. I just have one small project to finish first.
sureQuote: mipletI don't have time right this minute, but does anyone else want to know the probabilities behind these hedges? And I think all of the firebets get paid for 1 not to 1. The math geek in me really wants to know how bad theses hedges are.
I also moved this from a different thread as it like it here better
others have pointed out that you cut your winnings down by hedging.Quote: CrapsGeniousWhy are people here seeing hedging the wrong way? It is guarantee money from both sides.
I see most craps players wanting to win money and to me I think you win less than the player just making a $5 Fire bet, like me.
so I found this post you made last year
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/16248-craps-firebet-hedge-to-profits/
here is some again
..........................................................................
Here is a cool bet for those safe play craps players.
Fire bet pays: (4 numbers pays 25/1) (5 numbers Pays 250/1) (6 numbers pays 1000/1)
snip snip
This is a very good hedge that can profit quite a bite without risking much of your bank roll.
Enjoy and Merry Christmas.
.............................................................................
Thanks!
I setup WinCraps Pro because it has the Fire bet in it.
Ran 100,000 shooters
your hedge system vs. me (one fire bet and no hedge)
we played at the same table.
who do you think won the most money (or lost the least if a net loss happened)?
your results:
mean: -1.27
net$: - 126,972
handle$: 1,482,680
advantage: -8.56%
my results
mean: -1.09
net$: - 108,750
handle$: 500,000
advantage: -21.75%
your system bet a lot more than my system, so you won there and got more comps than I did
but I lost less than you did
so I think I won more money (lost less) by not hedging
but maybe you do not always play your hedge system on every shooter
It should be very easy to know what shooters to hedge against and those to
just wait for a big payday.
I have only seen one 5 point Fire bet
maybe you can set your own WinCraps file to compare hedge vs no hedge
and show some results
here is the code I used for Pro. It could be done better, but I was after the results first
If
Initializing script
Then
Name cs91 as "Fire Points Hit" :
Name cs90 as "this shooter has made a 10" :
Name cs94 as "this shooter has made a 4" :
Name cs95 as "this shooter has made a 5" :
Name cs96 as "this shooter has made a 6" :
Name cs98 as "this shooter has made a 8" :
Name cs99 as "this shooter has made a 9" :
Bet $5 on Fire : GoTo "end" EndIf
If Beginning new session Then Bet $5 on Fire : GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 6 Then GoTo "end" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) Then GoTo "point wins" EndIf
If A Point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) Then GoTo "end" EndIf
GoTo "Gather statistics"
: "point wins" :
If A Point is decided FOR 4 Then Bet $1 to cs94 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 5 Then Bet $1 to cs95 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 6 Then Bet $1 to cs96 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 8 Then Bet $1 to cs98 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 9 Then Bet $1 to cs99 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 10 Then Bet $1 to cs90 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
: "Gather statistics" :
cs91 = sum(cs90, cs94, cs95, cs96, cs98, cs99)
If cs91 < 3 Then GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Last roll was a comeout roll Then GoTo "3 fire" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Last roll was a comeout roll Then GoTo "4 fire" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Last roll was a comeout roll Then GoTo "5 fire" EndIf
GoTo "end"
: "3 fire" :
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 4 And cs94 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 5 And cs95 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 6 And cs96 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 8 And cs98 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 9 And cs99 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 10 And cs90 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
: "4 fire" :
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 4 And cs94 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 5 And cs95 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 6 And cs96 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 8 And cs98 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 9 And cs99 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 10 And cs90 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
: "5 fire" :
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 4 And cs94 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $3000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 5 And cs95 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $3000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 6 And cs96 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $3000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 8 And cs98 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $3000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 9 And cs99 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $3000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 10 And cs90 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $3000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
: "End" :
If A Point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then add 1 to cs0 : bet 0 on cs90, cs91, cs94, cs95, cs96, cs98, cs99 :
Start new session(preserve checkstacks) EndIf
If cs0 = 90000 Then Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive EndIf
Sally
*Wincraps shows roll data of 8,8,8,8,8,7,7,7,7,7,9,9,9,9,9,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,4,5,6,8,9,7,4,4,4,7,5,5,5,7
In order to setup wincraps to compare to a more live table feel, you need to configure the probabilities to more realistic roll results.
I appreciate the WinCraps Pro file but my wallet never lies to me, If it shows extra money in there then I have to believe my wallet to be true and the firebet hedging deemed profitable starting from the 4th point.
However I've moved forward since this thread in proving to members on here that placing a $12/Place6 bet, pressing to $30 after 1 win then same bet thereafter along with a $5 wager on Hard6 and parley 1000% to $50 after a win followed by same bet thereafter is much more profitable as compared to hedging the 5th number firebet.
You can also prove this in WinCraps if you choose.
In the meantime if you also want to correct your figures on the firebet hedging you should change the following:
5th number
4th point is correct $120/Lay on any number.
5th point hedge is slightly different
$600/Lay on 6/8
$750/Lay on 5/9
$800/Lay on 4/10
6th number
$1200/Lay on 6/8
$1500/Lay on 5/9
$2000/Lay on 4/10
WinCraps Pro File
If
Initializing script
Then
Name cs91 as "Fire Points Hit" :
Name cs90 as "this shooter has made a 10" :
Name cs94 as "this shooter has made a 4" :
Name cs95 as "this shooter has made a 5" :
Name cs96 as "this shooter has made a 6" :
Name cs98 as "this shooter has made a 8" :
Name cs99 as "this shooter has made a 9" :
Bet $5 on Fire : GoTo "end" EndIf
If Beginning new session Then Bet $5 on Fire : GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 6 Then GoTo "end" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) Then GoTo "point wins" EndIf
If A Point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10) Then GoTo "end" EndIf
GoTo "Gather statistics"
: "point wins" :
If A Point is decided FOR 4 Then Bet $1 to cs94 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 5 Then Bet $1 to cs95 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 6 Then Bet $1 to cs96 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 8 Then Bet $1 to cs98 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 9 Then Bet $1 to cs99 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
If A Point is decided FOR 10 Then Bet $1 to cs90 GoTo "Gather statistics" EndIf
: "Gather statistics" :
cs91 = sum(cs90, cs94, cs95, cs96, cs98, cs99)
If cs91 < 3 Then GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Last roll was a comeout roll Then GoTo "3 fire" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Last roll was a comeout roll Then GoTo "4 fire" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Last roll was a comeout roll Then GoTo "5 fire" EndIf
GoTo "end"
: "3 fire" :
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 4 And cs94 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 5 And cs95 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 6 And cs96 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 8 And cs98 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 9 And cs99 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 3 And Point = 10 And cs90 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $120 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
: "4 fire" :
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 4 And cs94 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $800 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 5 And cs95 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $750 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 6 And cs96 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $600 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 8 And cs98 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $600 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 9 And cs99 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $750 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 4 And Point = 10 And cs90 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $800 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
: "5 fire" :
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 4 And cs94 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $2000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 5 And cs95 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1500 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 6 And cs96 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 8 And cs98 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1200 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 9 And cs99 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $1500 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
If cs91 = 5 And Point = 10 And cs90 = 0 And Last roll was a comeout roll
Then Bet $2000 on Lay(point) GoTo "end" EndIf
: "End" :
If A Point is decided AGAINST any(4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10)
Then add 1 to cs0 : bet 0 on cs90, cs91, cs94, cs95, cs96, cs98, cs99 :
Start new session(preserve checkstacks) EndIf
If cs0 = 90000 Then Stop AutoRolling / HyperDrive EndIf
You will find after running your simulations this is very profitable, but Shhh... don't tell too many people, just your friends.
I've posted my new betting in another thread for you to check out, it is also very profitable: craps-easy-6-8-lock-load-hard-6-8-strategy.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/17291-craps-easy-6-8-lock-load-hard-6-8-strategy-wincraps-file-included/#post335610
Quote: CrapsGeniousSally, we all know that the WinCraps and WinCraps pro produces true random results that are nowhere near "Live table" results.
We don't all know that. You think that. We all know that you are wrong. That is the whole point of all these threads.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWe don't all know that. You think that. We all know that you are wrong. That is the whole point of all these threads.
If you're gonna run any sims on Wincraps, you also need to adjust the probabilities when playing the dark side because of the outcomes. That's why dark side shooters are so convinced they can profit from craps day after day after day.
Contact wincraps support and they will guide you in setting up Game > Configure> Options > "Compute percentage dice about an axis"
