Short on cash, winning big

On Wednesday of last week, I checked my Great Gift Wrap Up account online and discovered extra "bonus points" equivalent for $1,500 of Shell gas cards were added to my account, and I decided to make a quick and unexpected drive up to Caesars to get the gas cards... and play a little craps.

I didn't have much money budgeted for craps so I used my "craps on a budget" system of passline (no odds) plus max firebet. I was at a $25 table so I also had a $5 horn high ace deuce on the come out, so my total expenditure for each shooter was $10 fire + $25 pass + $5 horn high = $40.

Sometimes the shooter would make one or two passes and I would make money on them.

And twice, at the same table, about three hours apart, two different shooters hit five (5) numbers on the Fire Bet for $2,500 payoffs, plus another couple of hundred for the pass line bets pays.

There is a certain joy in playing craps when you know you have little at risk but a great potential to win.

I found myself enjoying the game as much with only a passline bet as I would if I had all the numbers covered. And I really enjoyed the game more when I watched high rollers dropping a thousand or more on shooters who never made a pass and realized I wasn't losing big.

By the way, this was the first time ever that I was at tables for two five-point fire bet pays in the same weekend. And there have been trips when not even a four-pointer is made.

The best part was that you didn't have to hawk the gas cards.

Quote: 1BB

The best part was that you didn't have to hawk the gas cards.

Actually, the gas cards will be mailed to me and probably won't arrive for a couple of weeks.

Nice hits! I was happy to get a $10 gas card from about 18 hrs of live poker and tiny amounts of video poker last year...if points earned from the midwest counted, i would have had a lot more.

congrats on the win!

why even bother with Passline if no odds?

if you need $25 on the table:
$10 firebet, $12 place on the 6+8

btw- 20% house edge on the Firebet?! yowzers!!!!!!!!

hm.. now that I think about it, the times I hit 5 or more separate repeaters I don't usually get $2500 in profit. about $1000 of that amount is still on the table when the 7 comes.

hm..

Quote: 100xOdds

why even bother with Passline if no odds?

this is an excellent question and comes down to this:

Do the odds bets help you win? And the answer is no.

Craps is a negative expectation game and so no betting system or scheme will help you win. Having odds will help you win more when the numbers come your way -- but betting odds will not make the numbers come your way.

My goal was to be at the table to catch lightning at the lowest possible cost.

Now, had I been betting "big" when those two five-point fire bets hit I would have won a lot more money. the player to my right started with $130 across plus full odds, and when the shooter 7nd out with the 5 point fire bet he had won about $5,000. He did not make a fire bet. He also had about $1,000 on the table which gave him a net win of about $4,000. Not bad.

I started with an initial bet of $40 and finished both of those five-point fire bet hands with at least $2700. And that made me perfectly happy to win so much with so little to lose.

What's also curious is that by also making just a passline bet, I sometimes had a profit on shooters who only made two passes. But at the same time there were high rollers who lost hundreds and hundreds of dollars because when the shooter sevened-out they had lots of bets on the table.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I was at a $25 table

Quote: 100xOdds

if you need $25 on the table:
$10 firebet, $12 place on the 6+8

At a $25 table, wouldn't those 6 & 8 bets each need to be $25 minimum, likely $30 each?

Getting lucky is great and i am glad you did.

We only have two casino's here with the fire bet, one 16' and 1 12' which is very very very
bouncy.

We have had these for two years and i have 5 fire bet winners in all this time, i hit two 5's
and two 4's and my team member hit a 5. But then i hardly ever play these two tables, they
just dont fit my throw.

I was about to say i am just not very good at being lucky, but that would not be true with a
great wife and kids, i have been very lucky, not just real lucky at gambling, i have played
video poker for 40 years and never had a royal.

So i took up dice control, and it is ok, i got the guts to try 30 days in Vegas area just after
christmas, i have to admit i am scared to death and excited at the same time. Hope your
good luck on the fire bet is catching.

Good work and enjoy the win.

dicesetter

If a naked pass line bet does it for you, that's great. I'd rather shoot myself, gets way too boring.

Congrats on the big win, the firebet has been nasty to me lately.

Quote: Doc

At a $25 table, wouldn't those 6 & 8 bets each need to be $25 minimum, likely $30 each?

Doc is correct.

I just want to post a follow up. yesteday I took a drive to a casino just to play some craps for a couple of hours. I used the "pass line only / fire bet" strategy. No one made more than four passes (but three passes on the 6 so no fire bet) so I lost my original $200 buy in for passline and fire bets. The difference is that the other 8 guys at the table lost $500 to $1500 doing their place bets and come bets with odds and pass line bets with odds.

The more I think about it, I like the concept that you should play craps "one game at a time" meaning one number vs the 7 whether it's a place 6 or a place 8 or just the passline.

I plan to be in LV for New Year's and this is exactly what I am going to be doing -- especially because I expect all of the table limits to be jacked up because of the crowds.

@Alan

I've got a fun betfor you... You can play the don't pass and the fire bet at the same time... And after the point is established you can pull the fire bet up (or leave it...). And your fire bet will still be valid... It's like swinging for the fence at minimal costs.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I just want to post a follow up. yesteday I took a drive to a casino just to play some craps for a couple of hours. I used the "pass line only / fire bet" strategy. No one made more than four passes (but three passes on the 6 so no fire bet) so I lost my original $200 buy in for passline and fire bets. The difference is that the other 8 guys at the table lost $500 to $1500 doing their place bets and come bets with odds and pass line bets with odds.

The more I think about it, I like the concept that you should play craps "one game at a time" meaning one number vs the 7 whether it's a place 6 or a place 8 or just the passline.

I plan to be in LV for New Year's and this is exactly what I am going to be doing -- especially because I expect all of the table limits to be jacked up because of the crowds.

All you're doing is limiting your exposure...bet less money and you'll lose less money. Pretty basic.

Me, I'll stick to odds and come bets. I need more action, and I definitely don't need the high edge on the fire bet.

Quote: AlanMendelson

this is an excellent question and comes down to this:

Do the odds bets help you win? And the answer is no.

Craps is a negative expectation game and so no betting system or scheme will help you win. Having odds will help you win more when the numbers come your way -- but betting odds will not make the numbers come your way.

My goal was to be at the table to catch lightning at the lowest possible cost.

Now, had I been betting "big" when those two five-point fire bets hit I would have won a lot more money. the player to my right started with $130 across plus full odds, and when the shooter 7nd out with the 5 point fire bet he had won about $5,000. He did not make a fire bet. He also had about $1,000 on the table which gave him a net win of about $4,000. Not bad.

I started with an initial bet of $40 and finished both of those five-point fire bet hands with at least $2700. And that made me perfectly happy to win so much with so little to lose.

What's also curious is that by also making just a passline bet, I sometimes had a profit on shooters who only made two passes. But at the same time there were high rollers who lost hundreds and hundreds of dollars because when the shooter sevened-out they had lots of bets on the table.

Are you interested in selling them for a discount?

Axel here's another option: After you make your initial pass or DP bet + the fire bet, you are not obligated to make any additional bets. The fire bet stays until the shooter's turn is over.

So consider this scenario at a $10 table:

$10 pass, $10 fire bet.
Shooter rolls a come-out winner -- pass line is paid $10.
You take the pass line payoff and remove your passline bet.
Your fire bet stays in action and you have recouped your cost.

How do you figure the "value" of the fire bet now?

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Quote: AlanMendelson

Axel here's another option: After you make your initial pass or DP bet + the fire bet, you are not obligated to make any additional bets. The fire bet stays until the shooter's turn is over.

So consider this scenario at a $10 table:

$10 pass, $10 fire bet.
Shooter rolls a come-out winner -- pass line is paid $10.
You take the pass line payoff and remove your passline bet.
Your fire bet stays in action and you have recouped your cost.

How do you figure the "value" of the fire bet now?

Sounds Great. I don't play craps often, unless they have a promotion or I have some match plays or free bets. I JUST wanted to buy your GAS card's :) Are you interested in selling them(them=gas cards) for a discount?

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Are you playing for a push, or to win money?

Great question... and here's a simple answer: craps is a negative expectation game, so you are destined to lose.

So I have a different question:

Would you like to limit your losses but give yourself a chance at a big win?

Quote: AxelWolf

I JUST wanted to buy your GAS card's :) Are you interested in selling them(them=gas cards) for a discount?

I spend about $3,000 a year in gas, sometimes more, driving just for my business, so I will be using them. :-)

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Alan
Contrary to popular belief the fire bet is a very good bet, if you’re playing it for $5 or more. Sure we should all know that the odds of winning that bet sucks, but strange things do happen every day on the craps tables.

Most craps players make every stupid type of bet there is that will only pay to up to 30 times what you bet. You see this type of betting where the player makes a bet that is a one roll bet, that has very high odds of them ever getting paid off on their bet. When you look at the only thing that affects the fire bet is the seven out that bet with its high pay out doesn’t look that bad after all.

If you’re a casual player which most players are, hitting one six point fire bet a year would put most low level players over the top. The way I look at it is, if I can throw 7’s and 11’s on the come-out roll, the fire bet is will be paid for.
I do know of a couple of player that only bet the fire bet and a pass-line bet if they are forced into making a pass-line bet with their fire bet, and they bet it on every player on the table when they are playing. They never change their way of playing, they are only there to win a fire bet.

Bad bets turn really good when you hit one, as long as you know it’s a bad bet and don’t go overboard with any bet that you make there is no harm in making those bets. I could tell you all stories of how many times I’ve hit a fire bet but it just doesn’t matter. It just like all the times I’ve walked up to a table and the dealers tell me that they just had a fire bet for 6 points hit, but nobody bet it!

The guy that just made the 6 point fire bet then goes on to tell everybody want a terrible bet it is to make, and that he would never bet it!


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Superrick and Alan


If i have my drothers at 21-25% house edge i am not playing the fire bet, i would play the
all tall and small bet.

That bet has only about a 7.99% house advantage, and i think it is great fun. I have hit the fire
bet some, but i just dont enjoy it as much.

The concept indicated before by Alan of playing one game against the house instead
of many has been talked about by some of the better shooters for a long time.

Where it gets muddled up is the idea of making money as compared to the idea
of a big win, and for most people, the thrill of the large win over powers common
sense everytime.

At the end of any roll between 10-20 the vast majority of the players leave more
more on the table than they made. At the end of the night they say well our rolls
were decent, yet we did not make much.

Like card counting, when the count is in your favor bet 10 times normal and in craps
there are times when that applies to a starting position where you have one number
your hitting, or your repeating numbers.

As i have indicated, i am not in the camp of one continued signature number, however in
decent tolls, you will always see one within that roll.

If i was forced to play one way to make money i would play one game against the house
and if i am throwing well i think i can win that one game enough to keep my house, and if
i were a casino, i would be scared to death of good one bet player.

dicesetter

I'm not a professional dice player nor am I a professional gambler.

If I can't play the Fire Bet (even at 22%) then I don't want to play craps. It is a fun bet and I'm willing to pay for my kicks.

Sometimes it isn't always about +EV plays or limiting your losses it is about enjoying what you do and how you play.

Glad you won Alan, good for you!

Quote:

dicesetter
If i have my drothers at 21-25% house edge i am not playing the fire bet, i would play the
all tall and small bet.

The house advantage doesn't mean a thing you are just getting lucky when you hit one of these fire bets anyway. If you are betting them there are more times that the bet pays for itself when the shooter throws a come-out winner or two. Face the facts that the only time you have an advantage on your pass-line bet is the come out rolls, so why not couple your fire bet with your pass-line bet.

Your not going to see an over abundance of 6 point fire bets, but you will see enough 4 and 5 point ones that will play you very well. I see a lot of the 4, and 5 point fire bets, that are thrown by the random rollers, so I always have a fire bet on everybody on the table.

Yes, I know the math on the bet, but I will only play on tables that have the fire bet or the All Tall Small bets on the tables. I know that the casinos are making money on those two bets or they wouldn't have them on the tables, but if you play enough craps you are bound to get lucky sometimes!

For someone that says they are a DI, the fire bet has got to be the best bet on the table for them, no they are not going to hit it every time they play craps, but they should hit it enough to pay for what they bet on it! If you happen to get on one of those tables where everybody is getting on big rolls, you should have a fire bet out there on everybody that is shooting.


Again I know that it's a bad bet, but I hit it all the time, if you are someone that shoots all the time, and you make over five points on a lot on your rolls, why in the world wouldn’t you bet it?


...

well



I guess i must not be very good, because i have a good many good rolls and
always in them i repeat numbers to much to get enough 5 pointers to say i like it.

For me atleast , when i am on a good roll and try to make changes to get a shot at
the fifth number of the fire bet i hit a seven.

Last night was an example, i had a hell of a roll going, but i was not hitting my pass line
number and everyone was hollering to hit it, so i made a small change to help hit that
number and sure as hell, 7...

Like Clint Eastwood said, a man just has to understand his limitations...


Dicesetter

Superrick made a few things that I would like to comment on:

Quote: superrick

Your not going to see an over abundance of 6 point fire bets, but you will see enough 4 and 5 point ones that will play you very well. I see a lot of the 4, and 5 point fire bets, that are thrown by the random rollers, so I always have a fire bet on everybody on the table.

I also have a firebet on everybody at the table, but I see few 4 and 5 point winners, and only two six point winners. However, just one 5 point winner pays for a lot of fire bet outlays.

Quote: superrick

Yes, I know the math on the bet, but I will only play on tables that have the fire bet or the All Tall Small bets on the tables. I know that the casinos are making money on those two bets or they wouldn't have them on the tables, but if you play enough craps you are bound to get lucky sometimes!

I agree with this, but more importantly the FireBet is your only chance to win a lot of money without betting a lot of money. Craps is a game with small returns on nearly every "good bet." The passline bet, or don't pass bet, are the best bets but they only pay even money. The odds on those bets do pay "true odds" but what's the best payout -- two to one, and that isn't very big at all. The fire bet is like the royal flush in video poker, or lining up three sevens on a slot machine -- it's your chance for a big win with a little outlay.

Quote: superrick

Again I know that it's a bad bet, but I hit it all the time, if you are someone that shoots all the time, and you make over five points on a lot on your rolls, why in the world wouldn’t you bet it?

Well, I wish it were that easy. I have played with DIs who do make five points or more, but they are repeaters. The last time I played craps a shooter made 7 passes, but they were all on three points -- 6, 8, 9 -- so no firebet payoff.

Alan




I understand the idea of a small bet for large gains....

But i dont rely on luck to win, not that i dont want to, or would
not love to, but i cant .

Sue and I have been on casino trips now for 25 years, and we go
once a week or more. In the past 25 years we have had 5 wins (slots) which
required a 1099 form..... 5.. out of over 1400 trips to a casino
that is it. We have friends that go with us that average 20-30
...... a year.

I have played video poker since 1975 and as you know there are
many books and such which tell us all how to play the game
and play for the royal flush......

well i have never had one

I have done pretty well at craps and live poker because to some extent
i can have an affect on luck. I have won the fire bet a number of times,
but of all the times i have bet on it, i have only won once when some one
else was shooting, every other time i was shooting. So for me to go to
a casino and bet the fire bet on others expecting to win is about as likely as
me growing all my hair back.

it is alot of fun to think about, but in the mean time i will get a hat.



Dicesetter

Quote:

I guess i must not be very good, because i have a good many good rolls and
always in them i repeat numbers to much to get enough 5 pointers to say i like it.

It's all about confidence, most shooter freak out when they have to change their sets, they are shaking in their boots, no wonder they 7 out! There is no doubt that luck has a lot to do with it, because as you keep making points, it brings in other players that slow down the game with all of their stupid betting.

Quote:

Last night was an example, i had a hell of a roll going, but i was not hitting my pass line
number and everyone was hollering to hit it, so i made a small change to help hit that
number and sure as hell, 7...

Well I've seen you shooting and there is no reason why you can't hit a 6 point fire bet, and if I was you I would always have it bet on everyone of my rolls. The next time your in Vegas I will show you a few tricks that will allow you to hit those numbers you need for that 5th and 6th point.

I think that its very common mistake that a lot of the so-called DI's will make when they are not betting the fire bet. I see that kind of behavior all the time. The guys will tell me that its a ad bet and they won't even put a $1 bet on it. The last 6 point fire bet I hit, that was the case. I invited a local DI to show up where we were playing, when I got the dice I had to badger him into putting a $1 on the fire bet, he was just like everybody else, and told me what he thought about the bet and how bad of a bet it was.

Well 12 points later he couldn't thank me enough, I repeated the 8 two times the 5 two times and the 6 three times and the 10 twice, yes DI's have a bad habit of repeating points. When they had the repeat bet in one of the casinos here in town I loved that bet. Even though I made 12 points on that roll, I will tell everybody that I just got lucky. Nobody bought in on that roll, I had two DI's on the table and there was two other players, that were using good common sense, by not putting their bets where I was landing the dice, they also weren’t making stupid bets.

The dealers won $2000, because the other DI that I play craps with all the time had them up for $1 with my bet up there for them. I always have the dealers up on the fire bet, it sure does change their attitude towards you.

Luck does have a lot to do with any big roll, but if you play all the time you are bound to get lucky a few times a year! It all boils down to some stupid bets pay big time for a very little amount. Most players will pay for the fire bet on their come out rolls, one or two 7's on the come out and your fire bet is paid for, hit only one 6 point fire bet a year and most players will be up for the year! Throw in a few 5 point fire bets and you're way ahead of the game.

Most shooters and players make way more stupid bets when they are playing, by betting the world, or ace deuce or some other prop bets!

It's not everyday that I'm going to have a 55 roll, and make a 6 point fire bet, but when I do, I want it to pay off! I see a lot of the so-called random rollers having those type of rolls, their bound to, they out number the so-called DI's tens of thousands to one. Everybody makes a big deal out of someone they all call a DI when they get on a roll, but you have to remember, nobody is counting the roll that these DI's call random rollers!
Casinos are only looking at the guys that are setting the dice, and it's all because of all the fiction that is written about these so-called DI's. They never look at you when you are losing, then they are only laughing at you! They love to make fun of anybody that sets the dice.

I tell everybody to bet on me just like a random roller, some days I can't do anything wrong, then there are the days that I should have stayed home!

...

Superrick



I am very excited to get out there and work on my game.

When i play on a table here that has the fire bet, i do bet on everyone, i play
1 or 2 on others and the five max on me. It is hit here so seldom, i just
dont think about it .

There are two tables that have it here, one is a 16 footer and 1 a very bouncy
12 footer. The 16 footer i have not played on for 5 months, its seems hard to
win on. the 12 footer i have tried a couple of times lately and if i use a softer low roll
into the center of the hook, i can hold my own, and i did hit a couple of 4 pointers 2 weeks
ago there.

I have been working hard on throwing consistently enough to repeat numbers.

When you play once a week, you dont get enough table time on the casino tables
to work out different sets for different numbers.

Your a much better craps player than i am, so i dont think i will have any problem
betting the fire bet or all, tall & small when you throw. i may even bet a 4 now and
then (laughing).

dicesetter

Quote:

Dicesetter
When you play once a week, you dont get enough table time on the casino tables
to work out different sets for different numbers.

Table time makes all the difference in the world. With enough table time everything become second nature, you don't have to think about what you are doing, you know what you are going to bet before the dice get to the stickman to send them back to you, the same thing goes for what you are going to do with the dice to make a dice set.

You stop worrying about sevening out after all its part of the game and there is nothing you can do about it, you best looking shot can be that seven-out that everybody dreads. If you do seven out it's no big deal. If you are smart, you will be getting the dice right back, because you are playing on an empty table. You didn't bet the farm on you first two shots, and you only make one or two bets that you think you can make with no problem.

So if you do seven out on a very shot roll, you can regroup and know that you didn't kill yourself. Look I know that I can't beat the tables every time I hit them, I don't over bet when I'm shooting, unlike what you may have read by one of our great fiction writers, where they tell their players to make stupid bets like the $204 across, if you have a short roll it's going to take you 6 to 7 hits to get your money back of the table. Casinos love to see players that make across type of bets.

Sure there may be times that you can pull it off and get a few hits before the seven-out comes, but it's those time that you can't that will wipe you out! The way I look at it, is bad things do happen to good shooters, unlike card counting you never know when the seven-out is coming. You count never goes positive, it always stay negative.

Even though the great fiction writers want everybody to believe that there is such a thing as AP craps playing, the truth of the matter is there is no such thing. The dice count is never in your favor, the count is always negative! The sooner a craps player learns that the faster they are into understanding the game and not living in La La land! Your craps schools love to perpetuate the silly BS about AP craps playing so they can sell their schools. Fortunately not all schools are the same there are one of two of them that tell it like it really is!

The red flags should be flying high when you read about AP craps playing! Any type of craps play takes time to learn the skills you need, to win and most of that comes from table time. Understanding the fire bet is the key to winning it when you are betting it, your not going to hit it every time you bet it but you will start to hit it more often.

For someone that thinks of themselves as a DI, they should know what every set does for them and not be afraid to change sets when they are shooting, the one thing the fire bet does for you is to allow you to change those sets on the come-out rolls, after all a seven is only going to put money back into your chip rack when you do throw one, unlike the All Tall Small, where you now have to put money back up because that bet just fell, when you rolled that come-out seven!

True as it is, bad bets abound on the craps table, you have to know that you can hit them if you are betting them. Otherwise your just like everybody else that is throwing their money away playing craps!

Quote: Dicesetter

Your a much better craps player than i am, so i dont think i will have any problem
betting the fire bet or all, tall & small when you throw. i may even bet a 4 now and
then (laughing).

Yes, every book out there says the 4's and 10's are the worst box number bet you can make, but I think that I've proving that they don't know what they are talking, about if you can hit them!

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