A question about hedging and insuring the come out bet
Quote: Beethoven9thAhigh, since we're on the subject of do/don't, have you done any research in regards to avoiding one particular combination (like the '12')? If a person can roll the 12 less than 2.7% of the time, then betting the do/don't isn't bad at all.
Not really, but let's keep this on topic. This thread is about betting now throwing. Having the ability to switch from odds to lay odds on any roll is an advantage of this hedge as well. It gives you a LOT of wiggle room, especially on a 10x or 20x table. You can also bet an effective amount of odds below the minimum.
EG: $25 on the pass, $20 on the don't is like $5 on the pass except for the increased edge on the 12. After that you could bet $30 odds on the $25 pass and lay $50 odds on the don't pass having a net odds amount of $5. So basically you've got a $5 table with $5 odds as long as you don't roll the 12.
I've bet the pass and don't pass both on a $100 table before and had the table dump around $60,000. Most people don't care about money that's not theirs, but I had fun for the risk of rolling the 12 a few times.
Quote: thecesspitYes, we know you don't understand expectation and expected value.
Gosh.... MasterCard, Visa and Mercedes Benz credit are among those who don't understand expected value either.
Quote: AhighQuote: Beethoven9thAhigh, since we're on the subject of do/don't, have you done any research in regards to avoiding one particular combination (like the '12')? If a person can roll the 12 less than 2.7% of the time, then betting the do/don't isn't bad at all.
Not really, but let's keep this on topic. This thread is about betting now throwing.
Actually this is about betting AND throwing. I think Beethoven9th has asked a very good question.
In my case I hedge my come out with $25 on the passline because I tend to throw outside numbers including the "losers" of 2,3,12 and one winner the 11. And recognizing that higher than ordinary risk I elect to hedge with $4 divided among the craps numbers and I add a $1 on the yo. That fits my "signature numbers."
So Beethoven9th deserves a response: I think if you can identify any "signature numbers" or numbers you are likely to avoid, you should use this information to help your betting strategy. Personally I don't do doey/don't because it is against my nature to bet the don'ts. But if you are a doey/don't player and you know you can avoid the 12 then it saves the cost of a hedge bet on midnight.
Quote: AhighI've bet the pass and don't pass both on a $100 table before and had the table dump around $60,000. Most people don't care about money that's not theirs, but I had fun for the risk of rolling the 12 a few times.
You are a strange player, Ahigh. You had "fun" betting the doey don't on a $100 table while the table dumped $60,000 to the other players on the table? And how much of that $60,000 did you walk away with? Is your goal at a craps table to have "fun" while everyone else wins big money and you play the "ultimate safe bet" of the doey/don't -- the bet where you admittedly break even. And you criticize me for hedging $4 or $5 against my $25 passline? Wow. You've got your values all mixed up.
Quote: AlanMendelsonQuote: AhighQuote: Beethoven9thAhigh, since we're on the subject of do/don't, have you done any research in regards to avoiding one particular combination (like the '12')? If a person can roll the 12 less than 2.7% of the time, then betting the do/don't isn't bad at all.
Not really, but let's keep this on topic. This thread is about betting now throwing.
Actually this is about betting AND throwing. I think Beethoven9th has asked a very good question.
In my case I hedge my come out with $25 on the passline because I tend to throw outside numbers including the "losers" of 2,3,12 and one winner the 11. And recognizing that higher than ordinary risk I elect to hedge with $4 divided among the craps numbers and I add a $1 on the yo. That fits my "signature numbers."
So Beethoven9th deserves a response: I think if you can identify any "signature numbers" or numbers you are likely to avoid, you should use this information to help your betting strategy. Personally I don't do doey/don't because it is against my nature to bet the don'ts. But if you are a doey/don't player and you know you can avoid the 12 then it saves the cost of a hedge bet on midnight.
You are a strange player, Ahigh. You had "fun" betting the doey don't on a $100 table while the table dumped $60,000 to the other players on the table? And how much of that $60,000 did you walk away with? Is your goal at a craps table to have "fun" while everyone else wins big money and you play the "ultimate safe bet" of the doey/don't -- the bet where you admittedly break even. And you criticize me for hedging $4 or $5 against my $25 passline? Wow. You've got your values all mixed up.
$100 (one unit). I bought in for $300. (details here)
You tend to throw outside numbers, huh? Oh, well, that explains EVERYTHING.
As far as me having fun playing the game, YOU BETTER BELIEVE IT! Does that mean you don't because you're too busy trying to figure out why you keep losing betting horn bets?
Quote: AlanMendelsonAccording to the Insurance industry, the chance that you will have a house fire in the next 100 years is close to zero. Why do you have fire insurance?
Now, as you point out, the chance of a craps bet wiping out your passline bet is much higher.
I agree with you that the "cost of insurance" isn't worthwhile when betting $10 or $5... and also when betting $15 on the passline. But when $25 is on the passline, I'll spend the extra four bucks.
Not sure your house insurance example holds much water though.
My house cost is $350,000.
I owe the bank some portion of that $350,000.
My insurance cost is $800.
I buy house insurance so a fire does not cause me to go bankrupt.
Now, how does that equate to a $25 Pass Bet with a $4 any craps insurance hedge ?
Don't get me wrong. I completely agree with you that it is your money, and you are free to bet it ANY WAY you see fit. I also don't recall you ever saying your way is the best way, so it is really none of my concern how you bet. I am just trying to enlighten you a bit to show you that perhaps you are spending more on this 'insurance' than you realized, and in fact, you would have more money over the long haul, if you did not try to insure your $25 PL bet.
But then again, if you get a lot of joy out of collecting that ANY CRAPS bet, then that is really all that is required. If it makes you happy.....
Quote: AlanMendelson
In my case I hedge my come out with $25 on the passline because I tend to throw outside numbers including the "losers" of 2,3,12 and one winner the 11. And recognizing that higher than ordinary risk I elect to hedge with $4 divided among the craps numbers and I add a $1 on the yo. That fits my "signature numbers."
So you do believe dice influencing actually occurs then? Seeing as you do it yourself?
Not at CZR tables in Las Vegas for quite a while.Quote: AhighHaving the ability to switch from odds to lay odds on any roll is an advantage of this hedge as well. It gives you a LOT of wiggle room, especially on a 10x or 20x table. You can also bet an effective amount of odds below the minimum.
Quote: SanchoPanzaNot at CZR tables in Las Vegas for quite a while.
I've not tried this at a CZR's property. But the only time I have ever had any problem with this was a $10 coupon on the pass line with $5 on the don't at the Palms. They wouldn't allow it. But upon further questioning, it was only because of the coupon.
Dealers in general will scoff at the idea of playing both sides of the pass line. Especially folks that don't bet odds except when they get a point that they want.
I've seen a guy at El Cortez do $3 on both sides waiting for a four or a ten point to lay it.
They were very annoyed with him until he finally got a four or a ten point on the comeout. They tried to tell him that he couldn't do it, but he didn't respond and they didn't move his chips or take them back before he shot, and as it turned out, they he could do it; because he did!
In general, dealers hate the idea that they are going through a bunch of motions for someone who has no chance to win or lose much especially if this person isn't tipping.
But I have yet to find any casino that refused to allow someone to bet the do side and the don't side at the same time.
The Gold Coast has an unusual rule that if you lay the four or ten with a vig up front, the minimum lay is $20 to win $10 (with $1 vig up front).
When they tell me about this rule, I am usually laying the ten for $10 when I have a $5 pass or come bet that I don't feel like worrying about. So I just add $5 odds to the pass or come bet, and they've never told me I could not do that (it's the same bet since it's free to lay $20 and put $5 odds on the do side as just laying $10).
I have seen someone (who has since been banned on this site) bet $25 pass and $25 don't pass and no other bets on a Caesar's Palace craps table just to throw the dice. They didn't say a word.
Quote: AhighDoes that mean you don't because you're too busy trying to figure out why you keep losing betting horn bets?
I can guarantee you that betting the horn is not responsible for my losing at craps. :-)
Quote: thecesspitSo you do believe dice influencing actually occurs then? Seeing as you do it yourself?
I try to influence the dice. I never claimed any success. And yes, I do believe it is possible.
Quote: RaleighCrapsI am just trying to enlighten you a bit to show you that perhaps you are spending more on this 'insurance' than you realized,
While everyone is focused on my making the horn bet to insure the $25 passline bet, you all seem to be overlooking that I do this ONLY with a $25 passline bet. I do not do it for lesser amounts.
I do not do it for lesser amounts because I accept the risk.
Now for those of you who do not place a horn or craps bet, to insure the come out, how many of you are betting $25 or more on the passline?
Ahigh has already told us that he is betting $100 pass and don't pass when he is at the $100 table, so he is hedging.
Any one else want to say what they do when they bet $25 and higher?
Quote: AlanMendelsonWhile everyone is focused on my making the horn bet to insure the $25 passline bet, you all seem to be overlooking that I do this ONLY with a $25 passline bet. I do not do it for lesser amounts.
I do not do it for lesser amounts because I accept the risk.
Now for those of you who do not place a horn or craps bet, to insure the come out, how many of you are betting $25 or more on the passline?
Ahigh has already told us that he is betting $100 pass and don't pass when he is at the $100 table, so he is hedging.
Any one else want to say what they do when they bet $25 and higher?
Just to clarify, I only did it after I won $100. I rolled, I think, three more points this way, so the risk was somewhere around 1/9 that I could have lost. If I had rolled a 12 on the comeout, I would have passed the dice.
I bought my black Wynn shirt with that $100. And I have thoroughly enjoyed that shirt. This was a winning session for me, and I had a very fun time, especially all the response from the crew during my roll inspecting my rolls and calling the two rolls where one die came up short.
But I do not routinely do this. This reported day that I did this is the only time I have ever bet the pass and the don't pass for $100. Ever.
The reason I did it was just to keep calm and try to have as good of a roll as possible without worrying about the money. I could handle losing the $100 I just made by winning the eight point.
And I have won a total of about ten $100 or more pass line bets just in the last seven days with no hedge whatsoever.
I have bet $750 on the come and rolled an ace-deuce. Patrick still brings up this story to me often. But even if I could go back and change things, no way would I bet a bet that "protected me" from a crap roll. From my perspective, that's what beginners do: bet high edge bets and rationalize why it's okay.
But just wondering, if they would allow a $1.25 horn high ace-deuce on a $5 pass line bet, would you do that?
Quote: AlanMendelsonI try to influence the dice. I never claimed any success. And yes, I do believe it is possible.
Yes you just claimed success by saying "I do this because I tend to roll outside numbers". That's a claim of success right there!
Sheesh. Talking about having it both ways.
Quote: AlanMendelsonGosh.... MasterCard, Visa and Mercedes Benz credit are among those who don't understand expected value either.
Really? You really think that they don't use statistical models to try and predict future payments? Oh well, your loss if you want to carry on misunderstanding the mathematics of probability that people keep trying to help you with.
Quote: Ahigh
But just wondering, if they would allow a $1.25 horn high ace-deuce on a $5 pass line bet, would you do that?
No.
Quote: thecesspitYes you just claimed success by saying "I do this because I tend to roll outside numbers". That's a claim of success right there!
Sheesh. Talking about having it both ways.
How about trying to put words into my mouth?? I said I tend to roll outside. I did not say I was successful at dice influencing. I make no claims about being a great shooter or even a good shooter. You shouldnt be talking to me. Im just a regular sap playing craps. I make no claims.
Quote: thecesspitReally? You really think that they don't use statistical models to try and predict future payments? Oh well, your loss if you want to carry on misunderstanding the mathematics of probability that people keep trying to help you with.
Once again, you try to twist what I say. I don't play your games. I only know this: when I gamble I try to maximize my wins and minimize my losses. That's an important strategy. A hedge on a come out bet allows me to minimize my losses and if I get lucky on the come out I can try to maximize my wins. It's money management.
by the way, thecesspit, when you have $25 on the pass line do you hedge your bet? How much would you risk on the passline without a hedge?
Quote: Ahigh
I have bet $750 on the come and rolled an ace-deuce. Patrick still brings up this story to me often. But even if I could go back and change things, no way would I bet a bet that "protected me" from a crap roll. From my perspective, that's what beginners do: bet high edge bets and rationalize why it's okay.
Well wow -- thank goodness you stick to your guns. Im sure it felt great when you lost that $750 because you didn't make that "beginner's bet." Thank goodness you didn't succumb to that "beginner's bet" cause that really would have been terrible. Yep. Making that "beginner's bet" would have really hurt you. Good for you. I am going to remember this. It's a really valuable lesson. Really. Yep. Big lesson there.
we all understand when we banter with some one that does not have a clue what he is
doing, sooner or later he drags us down to his level.
I am as guilty as anyone, that is for sure, messing with Ahigh is fun, but there is no purpose in
it. The kid runs all over town trying to make $6 here and $24 there because all he relies on is luck.
Now he has a right to play like that, but thats not a craps player, that is a kid that is lost some
where between a person that wants to be a Di but cant and some one that wants to be a big shot
gambler, and cant afford to.. Until he figures out what he really wants to be, he wont be good at either.
The only thing that is clear is if we allow him to influence our play, it will lead to bad results.
I would hope some of the good players on here would influence him, but it does not appear
that is possible.
dicesetter
Quote: dicesitterAlan
we all understand when we banter with some one that does not have a clue what he is
doing, sooner or later he drags us down to his level.
I am as guilty as anyone, that is for sure, messing with Ahigh is fun, but there is no purpose in
it. The kid runs all over town trying to make $6 here and $24 there because all he relies on is luck.
Now he has a right to play like that, but thats not a craps player, that is a kid that is lost some
where between a person that wants to be a Di but cant and some one that wants to be a big shot
gambler, and cant afford to.. Until he figures out what he really wants to be, he wont be good at either.
The only thing that is clear is if we allow him to influence our play, it will lead to bad results.
I would hope some of the good players on here would influence him, but it does not appear
that is possible.
dicesetter
I laughed my ass off when I lost that $750. I think I lost another $750 on the next roll too. So what? I made $720 on one roll a few days ago too.
It's just a game to me, not a second income, and my lifetime losses are a tiny multiple of my biggest win/loss on a single roll.
Hedging is for people who don't mind losing in exchange for being allowed to play longer. I already can play as long as I want, so I don't need to hedge.
Pretty much that simple for me.
Quote: AlanMendelsonNo.
So I assume from your post that you are playing the game differently based on your ability to afford the bet levels. If I play a higher denomination table than I want, I bet less odds, and I try to roll sevens and elevens on the comeout. That's what I recommend that you do too if you want to win. IE: play with no odds if you don't have the bankroll to risk $25 pass line with max odds. You better believe I did not bet max odds on the $100 table with a $300 buy-in. And regardless of what Shack would say, I had the goal of playing on a $100 table, and stated that goal up front. You also better believe I wouldn't be betting a $20 horn-high-ace-deuce on the comeout on that table either!
Absolutely a SUCKER BET! Every time!!!
Quote: dicesitterAlan
we all understand when we banter with some one that does not have a clue what he is
doing, sooner or later he drags us down to his level.
I am as guilty as anyone, that is for sure, messing with Ahigh is fun, but there is no purpose in
it. The kid runs all over town trying to make $6 here and $24 there because all he relies on is luck.
Now he has a right to play like that, but thats not a craps player, that is a kid that is lost some
where between a person that wants to be a Di but cant and some one that wants to be a big shot
gambler, and cant afford to.. Until he figures out what he really wants to be, he wont be good at either.
The only thing that is clear is if we allow him to influence our play, it will lead to bad results.
I would hope some of the good players on here would influence him, but it does not appear
that is possible.
dicesetter
You are writing garbage here. I don't fault you because that's all you ever write, I'm used to it. You obviously have no problems telling lies, because while I don't know for sure if you did the highly-improbably with those 183 rolls or however many it was you claimed, I know for a fact your lying in this message.
Why are you lying about me? That's a pretty good question, I think.
If I were writing such obvious lies, I would be worried about what other people might think of me.
But please continue. It's interesting to see where this is going.
Quote: AlanMendelsonHow about trying to put words into my mouth?? I said I tend to roll outside. I did not say I was successful at dice influencing. I make no claims about being a great shooter or even a good shooter. You shouldnt be talking to me. Im just a regular sap playing craps. I make no claims.
Either you hit the outside more than random, or you don't. If you believe you do, you are saying you influence the dice. Commenting that you bet a certain way because 'you tend to hit the outsides' is the same sort of claim that other here make about hitting hard ways or the top of their sets. You might want to think it's different... fine. Be the poor sap. But don't ask 'should I hedge' then when given the maths say 'oh but it doesn't apply to me, I hit the outsides more!'.
Quote:by the way, thecesspit, when you have $25 on the pass line do you hedge your bet? How much would you risk on the passline without a hedge?
As much I'd like to bet. I would never hedge the passline. I only hedge season bets on sports when the odds shorten enough that I want to sell part of my position. I might hedge on the 6th point of a fire bet.
I don't have any issue if you want to bet the passline with a hedge, a bush or a entire shubbery. For green chips, black chips or frickin' potato chips.
Just when someone says wild things like 'I tend to roll the outsides' but also claims they aren't influencing the dice, I have to point out they are blowing smoke like a salesman. Oh wait a minute...
Maybe the Alan's Best Buy in the casino is really the Horn bets?
A guy was shooting and I watched him shoot since his first roll, and he only needed to make the five to complete a six-point fire worth $5,000.
I had $2,000 in the rail when he was laying the five for everything he had which was about $300.
I told him, "I'll loan you my money interest free if you tip the boys that's all I ask."
He politely refused. Wenda hesitated to see if I was going to ask for a kick-back, but I was not wanting anything but to help.
He didn't hedge with the money I offered up for him to use "no charge" as I clearly stated.
He made $1250 plus he made $200 from his $300 lay on the nine. So he netted about $1500 or so for the entire roll.
But he basically was in a position where if he made the 5, he would win $5000. If he didn't make the five, he would win $1250.
The proper hedge would be to try to win ( 5000 * 2/5 ) + ( 1250 * 3/5 ) = 2750.
In order to win that much, 5000 - 2750 = lay amount
lay amount = 2250. I was suggesting he lay it for about $2000 at the time without knowing the exact math.
Without this hedge, he gave up an extra thousand bucks because he couldn't afford to lay the five for more money.
That's a hedge worth doing. And according to the Wizard, exceptions for hedging are allows in "life changing circumstances."
This is life-changing for some folks, and not for others.
This particular guy is going to just keep gambling until it's all gone, so I don't think it was really life changing for him.
His name was "Doc." That's what they call him there.
But that's a hedge worth doing for many folks, I think.
Most hedges are lame!
A great hedge if he rolled a 7, but a crappy move if he rolled the 5.
If i said anything that i felt was incorrect i would feel bad..... but i dont.
You are trying to run Alan down because he does not agree with you, no
other reason. If he wants to use a hedge, so be it, i would think a person
of your talents, one that spends all day long on terribly difficult tasks and one
that leads such an entertaining life could get through the day without
fretting over Alan's hedge bet.
I could care less about you, my biggest concern with you is that you are going to
hurt some new craps players.... thats it...
Your nonesense about changing sets when you cant master any of them leads
not only to loses for them but affects their mental approach to the game. Jumping
all over town for a buck here and there does not teach any new person the way
to understand the game or table they are paying on.
You may have convinced a person or two on Ahigh's personal diary web site, that you
care about them more than yourself.... but you and i both know better.
dicesetter
takes at anyone that dares to question him.
I spent 65 years and had no one call me a liar, and he has down it
several times....
A decent person does not call those he does not know a liar.... period
And if you cant see his ego is going to hurt some one... then your not looking
dicesetter
PS... but you are right in one regard, the bone i have to pick is with ahigh
and i will do that, i should not clutter these pages with that...sorry
Like your posts, DS, to many readers it is painfully obvious the fallacy of thinking you're protecting a $25 bet when all it does is hide the fact that all your losses are then from rolling box numbers. And it's more than $5. But as Alan has stated, he can't understand how he loses when his EV on the flat bet goes down when the point gets established.
This type of player is a victim in crapless. Crapless craps also hedges against the crap! You can't lose from a crap roll in crapless craps according to Alan's definition of "lose," because all he has to do is roll the point and he wins. Forget that you only win when then point is aces once out of 7 attempts on average. He would still have his $25 pass line "protected" I think in his mind because he doesn't understand that he lost $21.42 of that $25 when the aces got rolled even though there's still a green chip on the felt.
All that I am trying to do is help Alan, and he specifically asked in his third post on this thread for me to show him how my betting methods are superior.
I've spent at least two hours charting and explaining and plenty of other stuff for Alan's BENEFIT not to drag him down, and he still maintains that insurance is good when you are gambling in spite of it being in the Wizard's Ten Commandments of gambling not to hedge.
I don't really care, DS, what you think because like Alan, you write things that reveal how shallow your analysis is of the game.
My only regret is that my time could have been used more wisely than the time I invested into this thread because neither you nor him seems to have benefited at all.
I would much rather be winning $30 in two rolls at the casino than spending an hour explaining this junk to folks who don't appreciate the time I've invested. It certainly matters not your personal opinion of me.
I'm pretty sure that most dealers understand this stuff better than either you or Alan. It's really sad that you folks and others just like you represent the culture of craps players. That's a big reason why many poker and video poker and blackjack players look down on the community of craps player as a whole because of the inability for craps players to understand some of what is basic math to an AP video poker player, AP blackjack counter, or professional poker player.
Quote: dicesitterYour a tad onesided here... take a lot at all the shots he
takes at anyone that dares to question him.
I don't think I'm one sided. I've been around DI and craps a long time. I had my own notions on the best way to approach potential advantage play and had these same type of conversations with ahigh when I first joined his site. As I've told you before, he changed the way I think about the game. Especially from an "AP approach", if one is possible. Some of his ideas are different, and much different than some so called DI's approach the game, but I believe they are correct.
As far as the shots he takes at people, most if not all of them are in response to shots taken at him.
Quote: AhighBut he basically was in a position where if he made the 5, he would win $5000. If he didn't make the five, he would win $1250.
The proper hedge would be to try to win ( 5000 * 2/5 ) + ( 1250 * 3/5 ) = 2750.
Think about this another way... He can lock in $2750. Or he can bet $1500 to win $2250. On rolling a 5 before a 7... which normally offers 5:7. He's getting 3:2, or true odds on his money instead.
I can certainly see why someone would hedge part of their risk on a 6th point, but not lay it all. He felt like a gamble on a decent 0 EV bet. Or possibly not all and din't do those sums in his head and just went "sod it, lets see what I can win!"
Quote: thecesspitThink about this another way... He can lock in $2750. Or he can bet $1500 to win $2250. On rolling a 5 before a 7... which normally offers 5:7. He's getting 3:2, or true odds on his money instead.
I can certainly see why someone would hedge part of their risk on a 6th point, but not lay it all. He felt like a gamble on a decent 0 EV bet. Or possibly not all and din't do those sums in his head and just went "sod it, lets see what I can win!"
The hedge definition I am seeking is a full hedge by this definition:
"protect (one's investment or an investor) against loss by making balancing or compensating contracts or transactions."
It comes at a cost. Once you start talking about gambling, hedging is a bad idea. But if you want to protect the progress you have already made towards the fire bet, that's how you do it. Hedging a life-changing amount is an exception in the Wizard's view. This is just such type of an acceptable hedge if you stand to win 400 units and those units are life-changing for you versus 250 units that aren't. In this case, this fellow didn't even have the money to hedge, and I was offering to allow him to unlock it leveraging my bankroll. Sort of an ideal hedge for him as he could unlock his progress towards that six point fire which he didn't in fact make it.
I would have just taken the 2/5th chance at the fire bet with liquid value less the vig up front for the lay myself. But that's me. But the same me never bets the fire so it's sort of moot.
I understand he changed the way you think, and i hope it
works out for you.
I will leave the kid alone, and you pay attention to how he
treats others and YOU, if you disagree with him.
dicesetter
Secondly, if you ultimate goal is to reduce risk and win/save money, I have the perfect solution for you: don't play craps! If you don't play, your EV=0 and your variance is 0, thus you have mitigated all your risk (at the cost of a little "fun" from playing craps. But don't worry, if you read other posts here, you will realize there are plenty of "fun" games out there that one can actually make money on...).
Usually when somebody talks about hedging, they talk about mitigating risk with a positive investment (or in the case of the casino a positive EV bet) by introducing an anti-correlated bet that maybe negative, but the magnitude of this bet is less then the magnitude of the positive bet, thus the combination is still positive, with the added advantage of reducing the variance (e.g. taking even money on a blackjack) . So why talk about mitigating risk with a collection of bets that are inherently negative?! It doesn't make sense...
jet
Quote: AhighThe hedge definition I am seeking is a full hedge by this definition:
"protect (one's investment or an investor) against loss by making balancing or compensating contracts or transactions."
I see nothing wrong with a partial hedge, but I understand the terms. I would run a partial hedge or full hedge where I think I am getting better odds than I started with. I know of people who played the Spread betting exchanges for (european) football effectively by hedging bets across different exchanges to get small profits, or hugely favourable wagers.
And of course, hedge funds work on this idea, getting small profits from a hedge, or risking even money on a 10:1 shot. What I'm saying is, you don't have to protect the full amount for a hedge.
I wouldn't hedge on the come out roll, or any one shot gambling game. But over longer terms where the odds effectively change, hedging can be profitable (the fire bet is the only place I can think off that it occurs in the casino outside the sports book, but I'm sure there are others). The best hedges are where you have positive expectation already, and are lowering the variance... when you have negative expectation (as you've shown in your graphs) you want to (generally) increase the variance.
Quote: AhighHere's a hedge I offered a guy two days ago. I ran into him again tonight at the Gold Coast, and I talked over the details of this with Louis who is a dealer at the Gold Coast.
A guy was shooting and I watched him shoot since his first roll, and he only needed to make the five to complete a six-point fire worth $5,000.
I had $2,000 in the rail when he was laying the five for everything he had which was about $300.
I told him, "I'll loan you my money interest free if you tip the boys that's all I ask."
He politely refused. Wenda hesitated to see if I was going to ask for a kick-back, but I was not wanting anything but to help.
He didn't hedge with the money I offered up for him to use "no charge" as I clearly stated.
He made $1250 plus he made $200 from his $300 lay on the nine. So he netted about $1500 or so for the entire roll.
But he basically was in a position where if he made the 5, he would win $5000. If he didn't make the five, he would win $1250.
The proper hedge would be to try to win ( 5000 * 2/5 ) + ( 1250 * 3/5 ) = 2750.
In order to win that much, 5000 - 2750 = lay amount
lay amount = 2250. I was suggesting he lay it for about $2000 at the time without knowing the exact math.
Without this hedge, he gave up an extra thousand bucks because he couldn't afford to lay the five for more money.
That's a hedge worth doing. And according to the Wizard, exceptions for hedging are allows in "life changing circumstances."
This is life-changing for some folks, and not for others.
This particular guy is going to just keep gambling until it's all gone, so I don't think it was really life changing for him.
His name was "Doc." That's what they call him there.
But that's a hedge worth doing for many folks, I think.
Most hedges are lame!
Perhaps he just didn't want to face the potential argument that would ensue when he tried to pay you back and you demanded a cut if the profit. I'm not saying you in particular would do that, but he hardly knows you and there's no way I would accept a "loan" from somebody I didn't know.
Quote: AhighThe hedge definition I am seeking is a full hedge by this definition:
"protect (one's investment or an investor) against loss by making balancing or compensating contracts or transactions."
It comes at a cost. Once you start talking about gambling, hedging is a bad idea. But if you want to protect the progress you have already made towards the fire bet, that's how you do it. Hedging a life-changing amount is an exception in the Wizard's view. This is just such type of an acceptable hedge if you stand to win 400 units and those units are life-changing for you versus 250 units that aren't. In this case, this fellow didn't even have the money to hedge, and I was offering to allow him to unlock it leveraging my bankroll. Sort of an ideal hedge for him as he could unlock his progress towards that six point fire which he didn't in fact make it.
I would have just taken the 2/5th chance at the fire bet with liquid value less the vig up front for the lay myself. But that's me. But the same me never bets the fire so it's sort of moot.
This is part of what you apparently can't see, or refuse to?
How many times have you said the things you will do to run other players away from a table you want? You do all kinds of boneheaded s**t to others so you can play "your" way right?
I'm thinking you were elated when the shooter went down, especially after not taking your advice, will you admit to that? It seems that you have at least insinuated that money isn't your primary reason for playing. So what is? It seems you at least a little really enjoy other people's misery. Remember when you asked MrV "what makes you this way"? I want to ask you the same question. It doesn't appear to be an insatiable urge to help others.
In the story some guys on one hell of a roll ready to put the crown on his achievement of a 6 point fire and some bystander starts mouthing off about this or that or the other thing and totally interrupts the flow of the game. That's your typical move.
You have no idea if this was a life changing amount of money, none. What your not picking up on is maybe there was NO amount of money that would be worth this guy being obligated to you in any miniscule way.
So this guy goes against what you would have advised in the first place and puts 5 dollars on the fire and he's shot well enough to get himself a 250/1 payout and had his own capitol to lay a partial hedge, and here you come with your advice about what he should do. And because he doesn't want to stop the flow and deal with your crap, he's dumb?
Some things money won't compensate for. Pain is temporary, pride is forever.
Quote: AhighSo I assume from your post that you are playing the game differently based on your ability to afford the bet levels.
Correct. I don't think I need to hedge at a $5 or $10 table.
Quote: AhighIf I play a higher denomination table than I want, I bet less odds,
This is surprising. You have been criticizing me for making bets with a house edge, but you would willingly cut back on the odds which have no house advatange? Strange. I would cut back on various place bets to be sure I have full odds.
I wouldn't even dream of playing at a $100 table with a limited bankroll. Why would you? The only time I did was with the Surgeon when Caesars had no other table open and we did quite well.
Quote: thecesspitEither you hit the outside more than random, or you don't. If you believe you do, you are saying you influence the dice.
You're putting words in my mouth again. It's luck -- good or bad, I don't know. It was certainly bad luck when I needed the 6 for the big fire bet payoff. I make no claims about influencing dice.
Please take a survey of those who claim they influence dice. I am not one of them. Let me repeat: I DO NOT INFLUENCE DICE.
I am not going to bring the conversation down to your level, meaning there is no reason to insult me or my business or profession.
Quote: petroglyphI'm thinking you were elated when the shooter went down, especially after not taking your advice, will you admit to that? It seems that you have at least insinuated that money isn't your primary reason for playing. So what is? It seems you at least a little really enjoy other people's misery. Remember when you asked MrV "what makes you this way"? I want to ask you the same question. It doesn't appear to be an insatiable urge to help others.
If you lived here, you could go and ask him yourself as he's there almost every night. His name is "Doc" and he's been playing craps and living here since 1972.
But you don't. So live in your fantasy world if it makes you feel better.
I do not hedge the come out bet.
They also have full pay bonus poker with a progressive on the $5 machine which beats Caesars and Rincon. Easy parking. Relaxing and fun.
Quote: AhighIf you lived here, you could go and ask him yourself as he's there almost every night. His name is "Doc" and he's been playing craps and living here since 1972.
But you don't. So live in your fantasy world if it makes you feel better.
Ask him what?
Do you think you would truly like to hear his answer if I asked him what he thought your motivation to offer him money was?
If I choose to indulge in fantasy doesn't require your permission, get over yourself.
Quote: petroglyphAsk him what?
Do you think you would truly like to hear his answer if I asked him what he thought your motivation to offer him money was?
If I choose to indulge in fantasy doesn't require your permission, get over yourself.
It sounded to me like the guy wanted to hedge the 6th point and didn't have enough on the rail to do so and ahigh offered to loan him the money to do so that he could fully hedge. Seems like a nice gesture to me.
FTR, I would hedge that 6th point EVERY time regardless of the point for enough to win 1/2 of the total amount.
Quote: JB85It sounded to me like the guy wanted to hedge the 6th point and didn't have enough on the rail to do so and ahigh offered to loan him the money to do so that he could fully hedge. Seems like a nice gesture to me.
FTR, I would hedge that 6th point EVERY time regardless of the point for enough to win 1/2 of the total amount.
When your on a roll is that the way you want it? Some guy in your face about how you should bet?
As far as the amount of money I don't know whether or not that would be a life changing amount. But I do think hitting a 6 point fire might have stuck with the guy for a long time. Hard to place a value on bragging rights. Or a good story.
If the guys bankroll means so much lets start a collection for him or something. If you want to help someone strategize the game, during a roll of a lifetime isn't the place or time, imo.
His money, his choice the way I see it. He had a partial hedge and that's the way he wanted it. Making someone else's play, your business, is intrusive, this guy has played before.
Ftr, if I was in the same spot, I prefer if people want to help to just stfu, but if all the distraction helps you play you ought to be good with late bets, chip fills, stick changes, etc. Or even late buyin's.
With five points already made you already have a good profit and a fantastic cake to eat-- the sixth point is just the gorgeous girl jumping out of the cake.
Quote: petroglyphWhen your on a roll is that the way you want it? Some guy in your face about how you should bet?
As far as the amount of money I don't know whether or not that would be a life changing amount. But I do think hitting a 6 point fire might have stuck with the guy for a long time. Hard to place a value on bragging rights. Or a good story.
If the guys bankroll means so much lets start a collection for him or something. If you want to help someone strategize the game, during a roll of a lifetime isn't the place or time, imo.
His money, his choice the way I see it. He had a partial hedge and that's the way he wanted it. Making someone else's play, your business, is intrusive, this guy has played before.
Ftr, if I was in the same spot, I prefer if people want to help to just stfu, but if all the distraction helps you play you ought to be good with late bets, chip fills, stick changes, etc. Or even late buyin's.
I don't think he was in his face. I think that ahigh saw the guy hedge and assumed that he wasn't hedging further because he didn't have the funds.
And you can still have bragging rights about hitting the fire, and only get paid half. It's a smart bet...the hedge, because the odds say you won't hit it.
Quote: JB85I don't think he was in his face. I think that ahigh saw the guy hedge and assumed that he wasn't hedging further because he didn't have the funds.
And you can still have bragging rights about hitting the fire, and only get paid half. It's a smart bet...the hedge, because the odds say you won't hit it.
It's not about Ahigh. That's what he doesn't get.
Your assuming "Doc" had his last dollar out on the table, is that what an experienced player would do? I don't.
If "Doc" plays that often, he more than likely has access to more funds. For all I know he could just sign for chips, I don't know.
But also, if those two have played together enough and were good enough friends he could have asked to borrow some money.
So according to this scenario a player with as much experience at the game as doc shouldn't even be allowed to play his way if it doesn't agree with Ahighs' opinions, wtf. Why didn't Ahigh just tell him not to put the 5 on the fire bet in the first place?
You don't think Ahigh was in the guys face? Your probably correct, it was and exaggerated expression. Probably no more than the way he post's here on the forum anyway.
You, we, are making some assumptions here, and only getting one side of the story. Don't any of those distractions bother you when your in "the moment"?
To me it's analogous to the kids knocking on the bedroom door, when I'm just about "there".
OK, that's just a little fantasy I was having there. But at least when I'm indulging in a fantasy, I'm aware of it. It hasn't completely taken over my entire genre.
Quote: AlanMendelsonYou're putting words in my mouth again.
No, I'm restating the arguments you have made to examine them for the logical consistency. It's a common technique, to examine the things people say, and see if they hold true. You say one thing. Then you say another. They don't follow. Not my problem if you don't like being called out on it.
Quote:It's luck -- good or bad, I don't know. It was certainly bad luck when I needed the 6 for the big fire bet payoff. I make no claims about influencing dice.
Well if it's luck, don't adjust your bets based on previous results... it's meaningless to use them if you think it's "luck"... don't justify the hedge you make based on previous results if it's luck.
It's perfectly fine to hedge if you want. As I said, nothing against it, I wouldn't do it. But who cares what I would or wouldn't do? It's immaterial.
I merely point out the faulty reasoning for your justification for it. Perhaps examination of your reasons might help you make a different choice, or keep the same choice. I don't know.
Quote: JB85It's a smart bet...the hedge, because the odds say you won't hit it.
Interesting comment. What "odds" are you talking about? You already have five points made, so the only appropriate "odds" to be discussing are the odds of making the final point.
Quote: thecesspitNo, I'm restating the arguments you have made to examine them for the logical consistency. It's a common technique, to examine the things people say, and see if they hold true. You say one thing. Then you say another. They don't follow. Not my problem if you don't like being called out on it.
Tell you what: call me out on anything you like. I think you want to pick a fight and I'm not fighting.
Quote: thecesspitWell if it's luck, don't adjust your bets based on previous results... it's meaningless to use them if you think it's "luck"... don't justify the hedge you make based on previous results if it's luck.
I don't adjust my bets and make my hedges based on previous luck. I do it for money management. Losing $5 or $10 on a craps roll is an acceptable risk. Losing $25 to a craps roll is something I am happy to avoid by spending $4 on craps numbers.
Quote: thecesspitIt's perfectly fine to hedge if you want. As I said, nothing against it, I wouldn't do it. But who cares what I would or wouldn't do? It's immaterial.
I merely point out the faulty reasoning for your justification for it. Perhaps examination of your reasons might help you make a different choice, or keep the same choice. I don't know.
the only thing faulty here is that for some reason you would not accept the idea that it's money management. I get the impression you don't play very often at a $25 table. It's very easy for $3 and $5 players to say hedging is a bad bet. But if you do play at a green chip table, and if you decide not to hedge your $25 passline bets I wish you good luck.
Quote: AlanMendelsonI don't adjust my bets and make my hedges based on previous luck. I do it for money management. Losing $5 or $10 on a craps roll is an acceptable risk. Losing $25 to a craps roll is something I am happy to avoid by spending $4 on craps numbers.
Sure thing. I understand that. As -money management- it's a technique, sure. I wouldn't do it, but it's not my money.
Quote:the only thing faulty here is that for some reason you would not accept the idea that it's money management. I get the impression you don't play very often at a $25 table. It's very easy for $3 and $5 players to say hedging is a bad bet. But if you do play at a green chip table, and if you decide not to hedge your $25 passline bets I wish you good luck.
Now you are putting words in my mouth. I've already given you my answer on what I would do. I've already told you it's nothing about objecting to money management.
But you can choose to read my objections differently if you so desire... you'll be wrong about them.
