A question about hedging and insuring the come out bet

As everyone knows, Ahigh has been critical of the bet I make to hedge or insure a $25 passline bet. I don't hedge or insure a passline before when playing for less than $25 -- such as at a $10 or $15 game, and certainly not at a $5 game which is what I play at Rincon and Gold Strike in Jean. But with a green chip, I hedge my come out bet because I tend to roll outside numbers.

Below is Ahigh's latest thoughts and some questions I have. If others would like to also help out I would appreciate it. I am always interested in learning about better bets.

Quote: Ahigh

I'm saying the way that you bet is the way that a beginner would play, and I'm giving you the better way to do it. The four unit crap check and the one unit yo is clearly superior. But also if you do, in fact, want to hedge, just bet both sides! The cost per roll on $25 don't is $0.0975 per roll where the edge on a horn-high ace-deuce is 13.89% of $2 plus 11.11% of $3 = $0.61 per roll. That's an 85% savings in the cost per roll and 30% of the rolls are comeout rolls. You're all about advertising discounts, so it seems like you could key into this one!

since I am willing to learn please explain a few things to me.

1. When I bet a $5 horn high ace deuce my "hedge" is $4. It's the $4 on the craps numbers. I am betting $1 on the Yo which is not a hedge for a passline bet. Do you think I am hedging my $25 with a $4 bet or a $5 bet?

2. If I can hedge my $25 passline bet with a $4 bets on the craps numbers, aren't I saving $21 instead of making a simultaneous DP bet? I realize that the house edge on the DP is small, but I am not betting "house edge" -- I am putting $25 on the DP line. Aren't you confusing the edge of a bet with the actual value (dollar value) of the chip?

3. If I make a simultaneous $25 pass and DP bet, what happens if I roll boxcars? It seems to me the "hedge" by your method now becomes $26. And I still don't have the "extra value" of the $1 yo -- unless you are suggesting that I now make: $25 pass + $1 yo + $25 DP + $1 boxcars ?? If so, now I stand to lose as much as $27 on a comeout number.

4. Now... and this is what I think the key is: You've worked out the math for what happens with throwing a craps ONE TIME on the come out. Would you mind working out the math for me if I happen to throw a craps twice in a row on the come out using your method? What is my net win/loss with replacing the bet and how does that compare with what I would win/lose making the horn/high ace-deuce bet that I make?

I know based on my play that the way it works out it's like this:

$25 pass, $5 horn high ace deuce. I throw boxcars: The horn high bet pays $26 and remains. The passline bet is replaced with the $26. I have a net gain of $1.

Again, I have $25 pass, $5 horn high ace deuce. I throw a 3 this time: The horn high bet pays $27 and remains. The passline bet is replaced and I have a net gain of $2.

So with my method, I have a net gain of $3 after two craps numbers.

Using your method of $4 craps, $1 yo, and $25 pass what happens?

On the first throw, a boxcars, what is the net when keeping the bet up?
On the second throw, a 3, what is the net when keeping the bet up?

Thanks. I want to see if your $4 craps / $1 yo is better and by how much.

I'll try to stay out of this conversation just so it doesn't seem personal. But I applaud you for looking to improve your betting practices.

Quote: Ahigh

I'll try to stay out of this conversation just so it doesn't seem personal. But I applaud you for looking to improve your betting practices.

Please Ahigh -- I want you to respond. I want you to give me the dollars that are won and lost with your method vs. my method. You can't stop now. You said your method is superior. Please show me.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Please Ahigh -- I want you to respond. I want you to give me the dollars that are won and lost with your method vs. my method. You can't stop now. You said your method is superior. Please show me.

That's easy! With the hedge, it's ( .1389 * 2 + .1111 * 3 + 0.0041 * 25 ) = $0.71 per roll

Without the edge it's 0.0041 * 25 = $0.1025 per roll

That's a $0.60 per roll savings on average or .60/.71 = 84.5% savings of your cost to play per roll on those rolls that you employ the hedge.

This is just raw COST. But the fact that you are hedging reduces your chance to win. In other words, you are paying a fee in order to have a reduced chance to win.

I will give you a chart when I get home that shows $25 pass line and come bet every roll compared to the same with a horn-high ace-deuce added to it. You will have two squiggly lines. One that tracks a downward slope at ten cents per roll and one that tracks a downward slope at seventy cents per roll. Pretty simple stuff.

If you figure you only do it on the comeout roll, that is approximately 30% of all rolls. So you're looking at $0.71 * .30 + $0.1025 * .70 = .213 + .03075 = .24375 cents per roll on average compared to ten cents per roll. So if you only bet on the comeout your horn-high ace-deuce then you are only saving $0.24375 - $0.1025 or $0.14125 cents per roll or about 58% instead of 85%.

Either way, it's a big saving in cost PLUS you get the chance to win money more frequently since you are not cutting your wins down in exchange for reducing the sting of losses.

Still, if you don't mind giving up the chance to win and just want to win odds bets, just bet the pass and the don't pass line both. It's cheaper at $0.2050 per roll than hedging with a prop bet.

Cutting your chance to win completely from a bet is the absolute best way to lengthen your play time if your goal is to play longer as luck can't go against you on that bet. You can then focus your variance into odds.

Just for the fun of it, if hedging is your game, consider this play:

Bet doey/don't for $30, with a dollar midnight on the come out.

When a point is set, either take or lay odds, depending on which way you want to go.

With the occasional hit on the midnight, this ain't chopped liver.

As much as a lot of folks like to value each bet vs. the HE, that's not reality. If you put $20, $30 $100 on the table, it is up for grabs..ALL OF IT. You lose, it is ALL gone. not $1.41 per $100, ALL $100 is gone to the house. Now you play catch up, if you can.

Quote: AlanMendelson

As everyone knows, Ahigh has been critical of the bet I make to hedge or insure a $25 passline bet. I don't hedge or insure a passline before when playing for less than $25 -- such as at a $10 or $15 game, and certainly not at a $5 game which is what I play at Rincon and Gold Strike in Jean. But with a green chip, I hedge my come out bet because I tend to roll outside numbers.

Below is Ahigh's latest thoughts and some questions I have. If others would like to also help out I would appreciate it. I am always interested in learning about better bets.



since I am willing to learn please explain a few things to me.

1. When I bet a $5 horn high ace deuce my "hedge" is $4. It's the $4 on the craps numbers. I am betting $1 on the Yo which is not a hedge for a passline bet. Do you think I am hedging my $25 with a $4 bet or a $5 bet?

2. If I can hedge my $25 passline bet with a $4 bets on the craps numbers, aren't I saving $21 instead of making a simultaneous DP bet? I realize that the house edge on the DP is small, but I am not betting "house edge" -- I am putting $25 on the DP line. Aren't you confusing the edge of a bet with the actual value (dollar value) of the chip?

3. If I make a simultaneous $25 pass and DP bet, what happens if I roll boxcars? It seems to me the "hedge" by your method now becomes $26. And I still don't have the "extra value" of the $1 yo -- unless you are suggesting that I now make: $25 pass + $1 yo + $25 DP + $1 boxcars ?? If so, now I stand to lose as much as $27 on a comeout number.

4. Now... and this is what I think the key is: You've worked out the math for what happens with throwing a craps ONE TIME on the come out. Would you mind working out the math for me if I happen to throw a craps twice in a row on the come out using your method? What is my net win/loss with replacing the bet and how does that compare with what I would win/lose making the horn/high ace-deuce bet that I make?

I know based on my play that the way it works out it's like this:

$25 pass, $5 horn high ace deuce. I throw boxcars: The horn high bet pays $26 and remains. The passline bet is replaced with the $26. I have a net gain of $1.

Again, I have $25 pass, $5 horn high ace deuce. I throw a 3 this time: The horn high bet pays $27 and remains. The passline bet is replaced and I have a net gain of $2.

So with my method, I have a net gain of $3 after two craps numbers.

Using your method of $4 craps, $1 yo, and $25 pass what happens?

On the first throw, a boxcars, what is the net when keeping the bet up?
On the second throw, a 3, what is the net when keeping the bet up?

Thanks. I want to see if your $4 craps / $1 yo is better and by how much.

I think the answer you're actually looking for with a $4 craps, $1 yo, $25 pass is:

roll of 2, 3, or 12 - all pay 7 * $4 = $28 and remains, minus $1 yo, minus $25 pass, = $2 net win
roll of 11 pays $15 and remains, plus $25 pass, minus $4 craps = $36 net win
roll of 7 pays $25 pass, minus $4 craps, minus $1 yo = $20 net win

So the main difference is that 2 and 12 will pay $1 more.

Quote: Alan

As much as a lot of folks like to value each bet vs. the HE, that's not reality. If you put $20, $30 $100 on the table, it is up for grabs..ALL OF IT. You lose, it is ALL gone. not $1.41 per $100, ALL $100 is gone to the house. Now you play catch up, if you can.

Thank you.

Quote: MrV

Just for the fun of it, if hedging is your game, consider this play:

Bet doey/don't for $30, with a dollar midnight on the come out.

When a point is set, either take or lay odds, depending on which way you want to go.

With the occasional hit on the midnight, this ain't chopped liver.

It's not chopped liver... it's worse on the comeout roll.

With a hit on midnight I lose the $30 passline bet, the $30 DP bet is a wash, I win $30 with the $1 midnight bet to offset the money lost on the passline. At least with chopped liver there is something to eat. With your betting plan there is nothing to eat -- I have the same money I started with.

And how much do I have to bet in odds to offset the loss I will take on either the pass or the don't pass? Consider that the average gambler in Vegas bets double odds. And what if I guess wrong? All I've done is add an additional pass or DP bet loss to my bottom line.

Quote: AlanMendelson

...And how much do I have to bet in odds to offset the loss I will take on either the pass or the don't pass? Consider that the average gambler in Vegas bets double odds. And what if I guess wrong? All I've done is add an additional pass or DP bet loss to my bottom line.

I have never played the doey-don't but I think you are not taking any loss, since the Pass and don't Pass main bet will offset each other. Your only loss will be the $1 midnight, and any odds that you take on the losing side.
Of course, this assumes that you leave the Don't Pass up, even if you decide to take the Pass Odds

Quote: MrV

Just for the fun of it, if hedging is your game, consider this play:

Bet doey/don't for $30, with a dollar midnight on the come out.

When a point is set, either take or lay odds, depending on which way you want to go.

I do this occasionally, but only on tables $5 or less. It's actually not as bad as most people think. It's certainly not worse than a Hardway bet.

Fine, then consider betting a $2 midnight for a complete hedge if the 12 shows.

Quote: RaleighCraps

I have never played the doey-don't but I think you are not taking any loss, since the Pass and don't Pass main bet will offset each other.

that "cancelling out" is the loss. If you bet "do" and you make your pass why give back your "victory money" when you lose your simultaneous don't bet?

And now it gets worse:

Quote: RaleighCraps

Your only loss will be the $1 midnight, and any odds that you take on the losing side.

Quote: AlanMendelson

that "cancelling out" is the loss. If you bet "do" and you make your pass why give back your "victory money" when you lose your simultaneous don't bet?

While the do/don't bets cancel each other out, you win your odds bet, so—in effect—you're playing at true odds. I don't mind doing this at all on $3 tables, but granted, I would NEVER do this on a $25 table. There's just no point in losing that much once every 36 rolls.

Quote: Beethoven9th

While the do/don't bets cancel each other out, you win your odds bet, so—in effect—you're playing at true odds. I don't mind doing this at all on $3 tables, but granted, I would NEVER do this on a $25 table. There's just no point in losing that much once every 36 rolls.

If you are playing the do/don't on the 3 dollar tables as a way to bet the "free" odds would I be guessing correctly that you aren't putting the 1 one on midnight?

Do you then just stay with the one number bet?

Do you have a preference right or wrong side?

Thanks

Again using the baseball analogy, the reason for the come out hedge is to establish your point and "get your man on base." I have no interest in being a doey don't player. I play the right side. I don't want to hedge with a DP flat bet that matches my passline wager.

The $4 craps bet or the $4 on the craps numbers when betting the horn high ace deuce is the most effective way and in reality the cheapest way (money, not house edge) to do it.

As Alan wrote, don't confuse the theoretical house edge with money coming out of your pocket. The house edge has no real value. An extra $25 on the don't pass does have real value -- it's $25 and all it will do is cancel out your $25 win if you make a pass. And how will a DP pass canceling out your passline win help your bottom line?

Quote: petroglyph

If you are playing the do/don't on the 3 dollar tables as a way to bet the "free" odds would I be guessing correctly that you aren't putting the 1 one on midnight?

Do you then just stay with the one number bet?

Do you have a preference right or wrong side?

Ah, good catch. I forgot to clarify that part. Yes, that's correct, I don't bother with the $1 midnight. If/When the 12 does come up, it's usually only once or twice an hour, and I'm cool with that since I'm only losing $3 a pop.

What I will do is play the do/don't, and once a point is established, I will take odds and also place the 6 & 8. If the table is really cold, I might switch it up & lay odds and just wait for the seven-out. It's not too shabby a strategy (especially for big Don't players) if you can find a place with low minimums and 10x - 20x odds.

Quote: AlanMendelson

As Alan wrote, don't confuse the theoretical house edge with money coming out of your pocket. The house edge has no real value. An extra $25 on the don't pass does have real value -- it's $25 and all it will do is cancel out your $25 win if you make a pass.

I understand. But with midnight being rolled once every 36 come-out rolls, I have no problem betting do/don't for $3. Since I usually lose maybe 1 - 2 units per hour doing this, $3 to $6 is no biggie.

Quote: AlanMendelson

And how will a DP pass canceling out your passline win help your bottom line?

Laying odds. Sometimes, if the table is really cold, I will switch it up & lay max odds. My $3 do/don't bets will, of course, cancel each other out, but let's say the point is a 4 or 10, for example. In this case, I basically get a $60 lay for "free" (so to speak). In the end though, I'm still gonna lose just like everyone else, but I've found that my bankroll lasts a little longer whenever I play this way.

B9 thanks for clarifying.

I've changed attack plans a few times but it seems I used to win more money. Maybe I'm on the backside of variance, I dunno?

If I use the do/don't I get the part about the no 12 wager and an occasional bust on that I consider a vig, 3 bucks no bigee.

Hey, I'm a red chip player what can I say? So what I've been doing is betting the 3 and a buck on c and trying for craps on the co.

Of course I'm no didc [just made that up] but Alan, I set a 2112 on a co toss and get quite a few, on a 3 dollar pass the c pays 8 and I lose the 3.

Some days it's the best bets I make, at least for awhile. When I hit one I press the any crap and hope to hit it again. I'm positive it doesn't work out

mathematically, but it's been working and even if it don't it's not the rent money.

But to add to this little fallacy of mine, I could add a do and don't 3 bucks and keep trying this. That way when the craps comes I don't lose the pass bet. So I
get the full 8/1 pay.

Then I like to at least think about the opportunity to bet just the free odds, at least I tell myself that. But truthfully I'm not sure I have the discipline for that
slow of action. But it's an interesting thought for sure.

My other latest brilliant strategy is a baby regressive 2-3 step marty on the don't, sitting down on the hook, sipping coffee and ogling the waitresses.

Quote: Beethoven9th

I understand. But with midnight being rolled once every 36 come-out rolls

Really? Do me a favor and keep track of that next time you play. While I throw a lot of outside numbers, for me the outside numbers are 3 and 11. But I will never forget the player at Caesars who kept throwing green chips on the 12 thinking it was "due." The only thing that is due is that you will lose money thinking any number is "due." Since when is thinking that "numbers are due" is smart betting?

Quote: Beethoven9th

I have no problem betting do/don't for $3. Since I usually lose maybe 1 - 2 units per hour doing this, $3 to $6 is no biggie.

I just don't hedge when I play at low levels. the only casino Ive been at that has a $3 minimum is Gold Strike at Jean. But they also limit you to double odds. While the doey don't works okay if you can afford to bet 10X odds or more, I think the "hedge" will eat up too much of your profit at a place with double odds.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Laying odds. Sometimes, if the table is really cold, I will switch it up & lay max odds. My $3 do/don't bets will, of course, cancel each other out, but let's say the point is a 4 or 10, for example. In this case, I basically get a $60 lay for "free" (so to speak). In the end though, I'm still gonna lose just like everyone else, but I've found that my bankroll lasts a little longer whenever I play this way.

I don't play the darkside so I can't comment.

I am all for hedging but I am not getting your idea. Are you only hedging on the come out roll or on every roll?

You mention how much you win/lose on 2,3,7,11,12, but what about when there is a point set. You are losing the hedge bet. Aern't you going to lose your $5 (or $4 cant remember what you said) more often than you make a profit, no?

Although this method seems like you could make money last a little longer I can't see very much profit in it. It does seem like a decent way to grind video craps to gain points.

GWAE if your question is directed to me I only hedge the come out with $25 or more on the passline. If I were making come bets I would hedge those as well, but I am not a come bettor. I place the numbers.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Really? Do me a favor and keep track of that next time you play. While I throw a lot of outside numbers, for me the outside numbers are 3 and 11. But I will never forget the player at Caesars who kept throwing green chips on the 12 thinking it was "due." The only thing that is due is that you will lose money thinking any number is "due." Since when is thinking that "numbers are due" is smart betting?

Oh, I never think any number is "due" since that's the fastest way to go bust...haha. The 3 and 11 don't affect me on the do/don't. I do keep a mental tally of how many times I lose on the come-out when a 12 is rolled, and it's usually right around every 30-40 times, which measures up with the math. One time, I avoided the 12 for almost 2 hours, but right before I left, some old fart rolled three 12's in a row on the come-out. Then the girl after him rolled two 12's in a row after he sevened out. Oh well...

Quote: AlanMendelson

I just don't hedge when I play at low levels. the only casino Ive been at that has a $3 minimum is Gold Strike at Jean. But they also limit you to double odds. While the doey don't works okay if you can afford to bet 10X odds or more, I think the "hedge" will eat up too much of your profit at a place with double odds.

A handful of the locals joints have $3 tables. You're right about double odds though. I'd still be willing to play the do/don't on such tables, but I'd much rather seek out even a 3x-4x-5x table since they're so easy to find.

Some people have a harder time imagining the edge on craps than on roulette. To compare and contrast, consider the better who plays red every roll on roulette. On a single zero wheel, 1 in 37 spins he loses due to the house edge. The other losses are due to bad luck. If it weren't for the zero he would break-even in the long run by flat betting.

If you have a firm mental grasp of breaking even except for 1 in 37 spins, you can understand that 1/37 = .02702 which represents the 2.702% house edge on single zero roulette.

But with craps, the edge on the pass line is 1.41% which is lower. Yet there are 36 outcomes. So why?

Well, in reality, for craps to offer a free bet on the pass line you would still lose on the 12 on the pass line but the don't pass line would have to win as much as the pass line loses.

And it's roughly 36/71 units (about 50.76%), which is pretty close to half of the bet that you would lose if the pass line had no house edge.

In other words, if the pass line were designed to be free, a $100 pass line would lose only $50.76 instead of $100 on the 12.

And a $100 don't pass line would win $50.76 instead of just pushing.

That would make the game about free.

So you could compare it to a single zero roulette wheel where when the zero rolled, all the other (non-zero) bet lost half the bet instead of the whole thing.

The edge is pretty darn low!

But you cannot disregard the loss of rolling a box number on the pass line. That is a loss too. Alan and I have gone over this, but you have to understand the expected value goes down due to the decrease in the chance that you will win your even money bet after a box number has rolled.

Hedging against bad luck on a roll that has a 0.41% house edge per roll with a bet that has a 12.22% house edge per roll is just paying the cost to reduce your chance of winning the longer you play.

Here's a chart showing a $25 pass line with and without horn high ace deuce and with and without 345x odds. This is just pass line only no come bets.



The odds have a big effect on the variance as you can see. But if you compare red to green, it should be obvious which one has a better chance to win.

An interesting side note is that betting full odds with the horn high ace-deuce loses the same amount of money on these randomly generated 100,000 rolls with a rolls to six ratio of 6.00 as not betting either the odds or the horn high ace-deuce. IE: there was some good luck in when the sevens and points appeared that caused the odds bets to make up for the cost of the horn high ace-deuce. But you could have done as well with $25 on the line and no odds and not had to worry about the variance.

The legend is:

do -- pass line
1p -- cover only one point -- ie no come bets
w -- working the comeout (has no effect since we are only betting the point)
u5 -- five units of $5 each -- $25 on the pass line
0x -- zero odds
345x -- 345x odds
hh3 -- means bet the horn high ace-deuce on the comeout roll ..

And here's the same betting strategies on my recorded 3500+ rolls.



The thing to notice between the red and green is that there is no "protection" of the pass line bet when there are no odds. There is only more cost. There are a few moments when you are ahead with the green line, but they are greatly outnumbered by the moments where the pass line with no $5 horn high ace deuce is easily coming out ahead.

You do get some volatility with that horn bet, but it appears to be easily muted by the costs that can be seen after 1000 rolls or so.

Quote: AlanMendelson

that "cancelling out" is the loss. If you bet "do" and you make your pass why give back your "victory money" when you lose your simultaneous don't bet?

And now it gets worse:

The pass/don't pass isn't the bet. The free odds is the bet. The do/don't is to get to bet the free odds without a no odds bet on either the do or don't [vig]

Same thing on any craps bet. The pass/don't isn't the bet, it's out there [if a 12 isn't rolled on the come out] so you can take a one roll shot at a any crap number on the cheap.

This isn't some proven formula for ap play, it's gambling, it's why we play. The thrill of victory on a budget. The agony of defeat is what I give the cocktail lady for a water.

When Ahigh use to talk about crapless I responded once that I can throw a lot of 3's, I do. Alan or Ahigh, try it. Set a 2112 and see if you don't get a bunch of crap numbers, and of course the flip on that is yo's. If you are simply amazed head out to the crapless tables and place bet a C&E.

I'm not saying this is proof of anything or not. It's just fun. I'm only doing this when I'm shooting. Once a box is made, then a wager can be made without the fee [vig] of a no odds pass bet. Just sayin.

As much as I respect the HE on hedge bets I will still spend $4 to protect my $25. If you choose to play differently please continue.

Quote: AlanMendelson

As much as I respect the HE on hedge bets I will still spend $4 to protect my $25. If you choose to play differently please continue.

I can respect that.

I was just tossing come craps thoughts out there. Kinda like craps chat. It's all good.


I enjoy the science but I also like a break from the seriousness as well.

Alan



I understand the HE as Pet talked about and i also understand your point.

But there is another thing to consider.

Lets say you bet a horn hi yo...$5

There is an outside set i use where i feel i can hit a 2,11,12 one out of five rolls.. So maybe i can break
even on that give or take a tad. So i have taken care of the HE on that part of the hedge, but if i hit 7
once out of five rolls i lose $25 on the pass line, still making it a loser.

I have toyed with the idea on a come out roll to play the minimum pass line bet and bet more $10 or more
on the high hi yo or what ever your double up would be, but i still have to hit more than 1 of 5 to make
money or pressing the first and second hits would make real good money and i have done that, but is that more
luck than skill??

On the other hand why not try on the come out, you have nothing to lose, and if you get the pass line
number of 10, 4 or 9, they pay better than 6 or 8.

So i have been leaning more to my 11 set on all come outs and give it a shot.

dicesetter

It's gambling.

I'm thinking that just playing it safe with pass/odds and 6 or 8 going head to head with the house is a slow death.

Unless a player has some special mojo magic with the dice and bet that way they are going to lose at a steady rate, about a buy in an hour.


I want to give my money or variance a chance to work otherwise I'm guaranteed to lose. I think I need to hit a parlay to have any chance and as has been said , proper money management.

Dicesitter, come on out, the weather is great. It was 93 yesterday, no wind, hit the pool for a hour and a half. Birds are chirpin, the works. Easy money in Laughlin,,,,, well, maybe not easy. But there is money.

I'm out the door to go for a parlay.

Quote: petroglyph

The pass/don't pass isn't the bet. The free odds is the bet. The do/don't is to get to bet the free odds without a no odds bet on either the do or don't [vig]

Same thing on any craps bet. The pass/don't isn't the bet, it's out there [if a 12 isn't rolled on the come out] so you can take a one roll shot at a any crap number on the cheap.

Well said. I've been tempted to go somewhere with really low minimums like Jokers Wild, but then again, no craps strategy is ever gonna win in the long run. lol...

Alan, have you tried a field bet along with your passline bet on the comeout roll? If you put the same amount in the field as on the passline, your field numbers will become "free bets", and your craps numbers will be profitable in the case of 2 or 12 and leave you even on 3. You will be in the hole on 5, 6, & 8, but you could make up the loss with a decent-sized odds bet - and these are numbers which are easier to hit. In the case of the 11, it will pay double, and on the 7 you will remain even. I haven't done the math to see how it compares to your method, but it is an alternative that is probably better than the doey/don't - at least that's my gut feeling. If anyone cares to do the math, I would be curious as to the results.

Quote: skrbornevrymin

Alan, have you tried a field bet along with your passline bet on the comeout roll? If you put the same amount in the field as on the passline, your field numbers will become "free bets", and your craps numbers will be profitable in the case of 2 or 12 and leave you even on 3. You will be in the hole on 5, 6, & 8, but you could make up the loss with a decent-sized odds bet - and these are numbers which are easier to hit. In the case of the 11, it will pay double, and on the 7 you will remain even. I haven't done the math to see how it compares to your method, but it is an alternative that is probably better than the doey/don't - at least that's my gut feeling. If anyone cares to do the math, I would be curious as to the results.

Field and line on the comeout is a huge hedge.

Hedging is bad.

Therefore the combination is bad.

But the field is a better bet than the horn.

If you must bet the field on the comeout, it is better with a don't pass.

Trying to prevent from losing as quickly by cutting off a potential loss has the intended effect at the cost of also preventing from winning by cutting off a potential win.

It's a negative sum game, so you need to leave risk in the equation otherwise there is no reward.

"Thou shalt not hedge" is the rule you guys are wondering about. It's pretty clear.

Quote: Ahigh

Field and line on the comeout is a huge hedge.

Hedging is bad.

Therefore the combination is bad.

But the field is a better bet than the horn.

If you must bet the field on the comeout, it is better with a don't pass.

Trying to prevent from losing as quickly by cutting off a potential loss has the intended effect at the cost of also preventing from winning by cutting off a potential win.

It's a negative sum game, so you need to leave risk in the equation otherwise there is no reward.

"Thou shalt not hedge" is the rule you guys are wondering about. It's pretty clear.

The OP was asking about a hedge so I was presenting an alternative hedge to his. My question was whether this was a better or worse hedge than the ones he presented and others proposed. Of course, hedging is bad because all the combined edges are cumulatively in play, but as a way of preserving a pass line bet in case a craps roll happens, I think that my option has some advantages to the others. All of them have disadvantages to not hedging at all.

I played a few sessions making a field bet (3x on 12) every time I had a come out roll in play (via Pass Line and Come bets).

I GAVE IT UP.

Every time a 7 rolled, instead of winning a bet, I had a Push.
And the number of 5s, 6s and 8s that rolled were finally too much for me. It ended as all hedges do. I ended up salvaging what would have been a craps loss, but pushed my 7 winners, and lost money on 5s, 6s, and 8s. Occasionally I would get the double pay on the 11, but not enough to offset the losses.

In the end, I gave it up as a money wasting play and instead concentrated on just the Come Out Roll bet itself.
8 ways to instantly win and 4 ways to instantly lose = 2:1 advantage for me. Why hedge that ?

Quote: skrbornevrymin

Alan, have you tried a field bet along with your passline bet on the comeout roll? If you put the same amount in the field as on the passline, your field numbers will become "free bets", and your craps numbers will be profitable in the case of 2 or 12 and leave you even on 3. You will be in the hole on 5, 6, & 8, but you could make up the loss with a decent-sized odds bet - and these are numbers which are easier to hit. In the case of the 11, it will pay double, and on the 7 you will remain even. I haven't done the math to see how it compares to your method, but it is an alternative that is probably better than the doey/don't - at least that's my gut feeling. If anyone cares to do the math, I would be curious as to the results.

When I am playing a $25 pass line bet it's a $25 field bet as well. Again, my "lowest cost of insurance" is the $4 craps/horn bets (with the $1 yo making it a horn high ace-deuce).

And as I also said, I don't hedge below $25 passline bets.

I don't think I have ever made a field bet in my life and I am not about to do it now.

Quote: RaleighCraps

8 ways to instantly win and 4 ways to instantly lose = 2:1 advantage for me. Why hedge that ?

According to the Insurance industry, the chance that you will have a house fire in the next 100 years is close to zero. Why do you have fire insurance?
Now, as you point out, the chance of a craps bet wiping out your passline bet is much higher.

I agree with you that the "cost of insurance" isn't worthwhile when betting $10 or $5... and also when betting $15 on the passline. But when $25 is on the passline, I'll spend the extra four bucks.

I am getting ready


Booked a nice condo in Henderson from 2/3-3/3 next year so only have about
90 days or so and will be hitting the road.

To be honest i am not as fond of Laughlin as i was, Riv has the new very high tables, Aq wont let you set
dice in the evening, Trop would allow to drink a soda if you set the dice, i struggle on the table
at Gn so the only places to play are h and A, but i like both of those, A is a very nice place.

I think i will place most at the smaller places around vegas that are more friendly.

Dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

I am getting ready


Booked a nice condo in Henderson from 2/3-3/3 next year so only have about
90 days or so and will be hitting the road.

To be honest i am not as fond of Laughlin as i was, Riv has the new very high tables, Aq wont let you set
dice in the evening, Trop would allow to drink a soda if you set the dice, i struggle on the table
at Gn so the only places to play are h and A, but i like both of those, A is a very nice place.

I think i will place most at the smaller places around vegas that are more friendly.

Dicesetter

Just a reminder about topic. We're talking about hedging, I think, in this thread. If there's not already a thread where we talk about our plans to visit places, maybe you could make one?

Here's a visual aid for the volatility and edge of the pass line with 10x odds compared to the horn and field.

You can imagine "throwing in a field" and "throwing in a horn" and what it will do to your chance to win.

This was 100,000 randomly generated samples with a rolls to seven ratio of 5.93 rolls per seven. Just luck of the ordering of the random samples caused the 10x odds to come out ahead after 100,000 rolls.



You could still come out a winner with a $5 field.

But you're not going to win with a $4 horn. You're just not after that many samples.

I can show you shorter run samples of the horn competing against the field for $5. The field kicks the horns ASS in even the VERY short runs. The field can come out ahead as a winner in 1000 samples easily on a flat bet. The horn has NO CHANCE.

All of this is dandy except Im not making a $5 passline bet with 10x odds and there is no $5 field bet available at a $25 minimum table.

"House Edges" aside, the cheapest way to protect a $25 passline bet is by putting $4 on the craps numbers with either a $4 craps or $1 on the 2 and 12 and $2 on the 3.

The issue is not the mathematics of the "hosue edge" the issue is protecting my $25 passline bet because I tend to throw a lot of outside numbers.

This, as a matter of fact, can be filed under "bankroll management." If you are going to accept the idea of bankroll management as a tool for advantage play in craps (and many of you agreed with me when I included bankroll management in the list of AP tools) then I can't understand why you would oppose this?

Frankly, those of you who follow Sharpshooter will note that Sharpshooter uses the same strategy when he plays. It's in his book.

Quote: AlanMendelson

The issue is not the mathematics of the "hosue edge" the issue is protecting my $25 passline bet because I tend to throw a lot of outside numbers.

If that's true, I wonder if your proposed betting scheme is actually the 'best' to make money, if you do actually throw outside numbers more than chance dictates.

Quote: thecesspit

If that's true, I wonder if your proposed betting scheme is actually the 'best' to make money, if you do actually throw outside numbers more than chance dictates.

In fact, I press from the outside moving in, as opposed to pressing the inside numbers first which are supposed to be more likely to hit.

Most recently when I had 5 fire points made, I could not hit the 6.

When Ahigh's "friend" was at my table charting me, I set the point of 6 and then went on to roll for nearly 25 minutes without ever making the point of six -- but I put about a thousand dollars profit in the rail starting with $52 across (a ten dollar table, and I did not hedge my passline bet-- by they way).

Dude, please drop the thing about when my "friend" was at Caesars. It's just gotten really old.

2.78% of $25 is $0.69
11.11% of $3 plus 13.89% of $2 is $0.61

So you're right in as much as a $25 field is more expensive than a $5 horn high yo.

From my perspective, even if it's only theory, the best way to deal with the comeout is to try to roll what you have bet, and ditch the hedge no matter what. Even if it's all random, you're just left with Wizard's advice which is minimum on the pass line or don't pass line on the comeout roll in order to keep shooting (& don't hedge) and work any come bet odds you might have.

Quote: Ahigh

2.78% of $25 is $0.69
11.11% of $3 plus 13.89% of $2 is $0.61

Never have I lost or been paid pennies at any craps table... nor have I been paid or asked to pay amounts such as 69-cents or 61-cents.

Quote: Ahigh

So you're right in as much as a $25 field is more expensive than a $5 horn high yo.

And that's what it's all about. Spending a little to protect a bigger outlay. I consider it part of money management.

Quote: Ahigh

From my perspective, even if it's only theory, the best way to deal with the comeout is to try to roll what you have bet,

I agree, but I just can't seem to make the dice roll hard 6 and hard 10 like you.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Never have I lost or been paid pennies at any craps table... nor have I been paid or asked to pay amounts such as 69-cents or 61-cents.

Yes, we know you don't understand expectation and expected value.

No player has the right to tell anyone else how to bet..period

Particularly other players that go to the table and lose money.

If Alan feels it is a good bet to insure a larger bet, that is part of his
game and he knows in the end what result his game will produce.

the only good bet is a bet that your on when it is time to pay.

If anyone on here has that down pat let me know.

Otherwise i think it makes sense if you cant win, you cant show others how to
win, and if you have a terrible shot, you cant help others win by discussing
the shot. Recording and showing terrible shots wont help anyone that is trying
to produce a decent shot.

Alan if you just keep watching that good roll on the show, you will learn to do a hard
6 or 10 at will.

dicesetter

Quote: dicesitter

No player has the right to tell anyone else how to bet..period

Particularly other players that go to the table and lose money.

If Alan feels it is a good bet to insure a larger bet, that is part of his
game and he knows in the end what result his game will produce.

the only good bet is a bet that your on when it is time to pay.

If anyone on here has that down pat let me know.

Otherwise i think it makes sense if you cant win, you cant show others how to
win, and if you have a terrible shot, you cant help others win by discussing
the shot. Recording and showing terrible shots wont help anyone that is trying
to produce a decent shot.

Alan if you just keep watching that good roll on the show, you will learn to do a hard
6 or 10 at will.

dicesetter

Nobody is telling Alan how to bet. We are just describing what is terrible about it specifically because he asked.

Offsetting with a don't is clearly the ONLY sane way to hedge a $25 pass line bet unless you are resigned to losing and or enjoy losing more than winning.

Quote: Ahigh

Offsetting with a don't is clearly the ONLY sane way to hedge a $25 pass line bet unless you are resigned to losing and or enjoy losing more than winning.

Ahigh, since we're on the subject of do/don't, have you done any research in regards to avoiding one particular combination (like the '12')? If a person can roll the 12 less than 2.7% of the time, then betting the do/don't isn't bad at all.