Craps Simulation Help

In Wincraps, can someone help on how the following strategy works its way out? I'd like to know what the simulation looks like for trying to martingale establishing multi-points in craps.

1.) I bet $10 on the pass line without odds.
2.) If I win, I keep my bet the same, if I lose I double my bet on the pass.
3.) If a point is established, I bet a unit equal to the pass on the come. If my next roll is a 7 or 11, I repeat back to square one. If the next roll is a 2,3,12; I increase my come bet to pass+lost come bet+new come bet. If I establish a new point, then I will make another come bet equal to the sum of the pass + additional points.
4.) If the next roll wins the pass or the come, proceed to step one.

I'm not sure if I explained it correctly. Essentially, I'm always increasing the come bet to offset the total $ bet on the table. I'm never taking any odds. If I 7 out, my wins should negate my losses.

I'm curious when this strategy will fail. Let's assume a standard craps table limit of $2000 Max. How much of a bankroll is needed for this type of strategy?

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

In Wincraps, can someone help on how the following strategy works its way out?
I'd like to know what the simulation looks like for trying to martingale establishing multi-points in craps.

really need a better set of parameters

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

I'm not sure if I explained it correctly.
Essentially, I'm always increasing the come bet to offset the total $ bet on the table.
I'm never taking any odds.
If I 7 out, my wins should negate my losses.

I'm curious when this strategy will fail.
Let's assume a standard craps table limit of $2000 Max.
How much of a bankroll is needed for this type of strategy?

Sounds like a variation of Alan Krigman's
pass/come bet martingale system.
(He only recommended to play it *one* time, but many players did just that)
That auto-bet file is free at the WC site for 5.1b version
and that should easily be changed to fit your newest parameters.
KRIGCOME.BET

"I'm curious when this strategy will fail."
Simple, once you hit a max bet and can not raise your next bet, happens too many times
or run of of bankroll and or both.


How long are you playing for?
what is your goal of play and
to never play that method again once you hit that goal the first time?
I doubt it
You did not give enough information to properly
simulate this and to answer your questions
Only one strike
(baseball season)

Well, the easy figure is what happens if the shooter rolls every point number with no craps or 7/11s.
$10 PL
$10 Come bet
$20 Come bet
$40 Come bet
$80 Come bet
$160 Come bet

So you have $320 in play, BUT at any point a 7- out just breaks you even. You are Come betting only the amount that is in play, so you would only win exactly what you would lose.
And a craps throw, especially in the later stage would mean a Come bet of $320, and then $640. Of course that only leaves one bet left of $1280, before you run into the $2,000 max bet limit. So 2 craps throws in the late stages will cost you a $3,280 loss if I figured it right.

Again, though, you are only breaking even.

What will you do when one of the numbers is repeated? Let's say your 3rd Come bet is hit on the next roll. So your $40 bet gets paid $40. $80 comes back to you, and your $80 Come bet goes up in its place. Do you just pocket the win, or do you deduct it from the amount in play, so your next come bet would be less?

Brilliant. I knew I was missing something something intuitive. If I have a win, on a come bet or pass line, I think I want to reduce next come bet by the original unit that is won. So in the case after the 3rd come bet, I still have $10 PL, $10 Come, and $20 Come. The next come bet would have to be $30. Assuming it gets established, the following come bet is $70. That way, one win is locked in per se.

I can see hitting the table max sooner than expected immediately when you suggested going up on all points. Can we simulate 10000 trials or whenever we hit the limit? I wonder what the expected time frame is to hit the limit.

Actually nevermind guys. Thanks anyways. I just used the Wizard's craps game online and saw some disastrous results. A come bet loss and martingale progression on top of the come is BEYOND IDIOTIC.

Again, you are only winning the amount that you have bet, so you're net is going to be 0.

You would never win a dime playing this way.

I think you would want to run the Come bets such that a 7 out would give you a $10 WIN. That will change the amounts.

$10 PL
$20 Come Bet - a 7 out is a net win of $10
$40 Come bet - a 7 out is a net win of $10
$80 Come bet
$160 Come bet
$320 Come bet

So now you can see you have arrived at $320 one roll sooner. This will get you to the max bet scenario even sooner. And all of this to win $10 on each 7 out.

If you stand to lose over $3200 when this scheme fails, you would have to win 320 shooters in a row, to offset the massive loss you will take when it does fail. If you figure on 16 shooters an hour, that is still 20 hours of winning is required to offset the blow up.

Is there a way to set a criteria where a come bet win results in a bleed down of the capital at risk? Like in your scenario where you have the following pressing:

$10 PL
$20 Come bet
$40 Come bet
$80 Come bet
$160 Come bet
$320 Come bet

Let's say you win that 320. If you lose to a 7 out, then technically you just won $10. Can you bet say half of what you won on the come in such a way to lock in a greater win? This might not be coming out right....

$10 PL (4)
$20 Come bet (5)
$40 Come bet (6)
$80 Come bet (8)
$160 Come bet (9)
$320 Come bet (10) -> Win
(you still have 310 at risk, but you won 320)
Next bet, 155.

It gets worse and worse.....damn martingale.

You need to ditch this idea of "making up for your losses" when you're playing a -EV game. Table limits, your own bankroll, and plain old mathematics are all working against you in a constant, unchanging way to ensure that you'll lose. You need to recognize trends and streaks (good or bad) for what they really are: variance. In the long run, you can only extend your playing time by minimizing your exposure to variance as much as possible. A martingale, or any betting system that chases losses with more money (or wins with more money) does the exact opposite.

Quote: scudder

You need to ditch this idea of "making up for your losses" when you're playing a -EV game.

Or make up for them without gambling on a game where you should be expecting to lose instead of expecting to make up for losses.