Wrong way and right way betting question

Hi all,
Haven't been on in a while so I apologize if this question has been asked recently or discussed at length. I am 100% a wrong way bettor and lay every number with full odds and have been spotty with my performance. Some amazing huge kills at some table but then slower grinds leading to full capital loss on others. So overall definitely down money. Which brings me to my newest idea. What would be the harm in betting the don't pass on come out roll. Laying with full odds when point is established. Then buying all of the numbers on the right side (10 each and 12 for 6&8) - while still betting the don't come. This way whenever a new number is established I am getting paid on that number , then go up a unit so I'm virtually paid back in my initial investment and then relatively hedged if I get picked off in my don't side bet.

I also am starting to have issues with laying odds on don't bets. I'm betting more to make less (yes, I fully understand the math behind this and why the house pays you less). Its just that getting picked off on one or two bets when you have 5 or 6 numbers, it becomes a painfully expensive roll even if 3 or 4 other numbers hit. Along these lines, I have also started to take down my 4 and 10 odds because the 1:2 payout is less than ideal especially if you eat picked off.

I realize these are 2 (or 3 different) questions here but I feel I have an interesting strategy in the first portion of my post.

Hanks in advance for our intelligent feedback!

The problem is you are hedging at all. Hedging basically means trying to lower the Variance. Unfortunately, this favors the House since it is negative expectation in craps.

I could possibly get into the specific Math behind what you are suggesting on Monday, but the short answer is that you are wanting to turn Craps into a game of Roulette in which you just pick a whole bunch of individual numbers. There is one difference, though, which is that your DP's&DC's, while Laying Odds, are the best bets on the Table and Buy Bets are not the best bets on the table. So, you're taking some money that you wouldn't normally be exposing to a higher House Edge (or, quite possibly, at all, I don't know if you're changing your DP/DC bets to do this) and are exposing it to a higher House Edge. That's really all you or anyone else needs to know.

It seems that your biggest enemy in this, ironically, could be the PSO because it takes down all of your Buy bets immediately and your first DC bet also loses.

This is a very strange Dark Side version of the way a guy I know plays. He'll bet $5.00 on the PL with a $1.00 Crap Check, then, when a Point is Established, he'll put down $10.00 Odds and then throw out either $81 across or $78 across, covering everything but the point, and depending on what the Point is. At this point, he'll ignore Any Craps and Yo and either PSO, Make the Point, or will win on one of the Place Bets. If he wins on one of the Place Bets, then all of the Place Bets come down and he sees what happens with his PL+Odds bet. As you can see, the only way he could lose money overall is effectively a PSO (not taking Any Craps or Yo into consideration after the CO).

I guess it's going well for him so far, but it's just a matter of time. You can't beat the House Edge and the PSO's will eventually get him.

Anyway, I've practiced his system on the WoO game, and I've only had one winning session using his same win-loss parameters, it's definitely a good tool if you prefer actually sitting there and doing it to having it simulated, though.

Aside from that, I'll only say that the Odds Bets are the best bets on the Table, and if you're sweating the money that you are losing, perhaps you should consider not playing as much money. If you're simply annoyed by getting all of your travelling DC+Odds bets picked off, then maybe you could consider limiting yourself to the point and only travelling a DC to one or two other numbers at a time.

If you're sick of risking more to win less, then just switch to the Right Way. The House Edge on Odds is 0.00%, and the difference in House Edge on the PL/COME is negligible. Besides, if you are talking about hedging with Buy/Place bets, then you really don't care all that much about the House Edge, anyway.

Eric,
You might try doing a single DC with odds. That way the shooter has only one "target" to make you lose.
Darth

Thanks for the thoughts.
I think you're all onto something here and my greed needs to take a step back and play less numbers. Especially in the beginning as I'm trying to build up my bankroll at a specific table. I also need to stay away from the "world " bet that I bet occasionally and it is very hit or miss. 10 dollars here and there soon turns into real money!

I figure there was a way to capitalize on the initial come out roll for each number when I bet the numbers and then reverse that when the dc converts to that number (ie I have 12 dollars on a 6. I have a 10 dollar dc. Shooter hits a 6, I take the 15 dollar that I just made on that number (while keeping my initial 12 dollars) and put the 15 towards the odds on the dc to back up the 10 dc). That way I'm not investing any more money than the 22 dollars for the buy of number and the dc and I'm equally covered if I get picked off or if the shooter 7's out. But I guess house edge factors into this. But it's an interesting thought. Cover both sides of a bet for 22 dollars. Get paid 15 if shooter hits the 6 while losing 25 on the dc, or get paid 22 if the shooter 7's out while losing the 12 dollars that I initially bet and got paid for.

Would love a mathematic simulator on this thought process but sadly I think I know the answer. There is no way to ease the pain of a good or bad shooter (depending in your perspective...)

Simply put, if you want to be a Dark Sider, then you have to eat the negative aspect of being a Dark Sider who plays the DC bets. If there is a point established, and you have any other travelling DC bet, the odds simply state that, on any given roll, you're more likely to lose on one of your bets than to win both. The only exception to this rule is if the point is either 4 or 10 and the DC bet travels to the other one, then you're just as likely to lose one or the other as win both.

Quote: Ericcraps

I also am starting to have issues with laying odds on don't bets. I'm betting more to make less (yes, I fully understand the math behind this and why the house pays you less). Its just that getting picked off on one or two bets when you have 5 or 6 numbers, it becomes a painfully expensive roll even if 3 or 4 other numbers hit. Along these lines, I have also started to take down my 4 and 10 odds because the 1:2 payout is less than ideal especially if you eat picked off.

I agree with Mission, if you don't like such a situation, then switch to the PL with Come bets. In the end though, craps is a negative expectation game, so you're destined to lose in the long run (as we all do).

Quote: Ericcraps

I figure there was a way to capitalize on the initial come out roll for each number when I bet the numbers and then reverse that when the dc converts to that number (ie I have 12 dollars on a 6. I have a 10 dollar dc. Shooter hits a 6, I take the 15 dollar that I just made on that number (while keeping my initial 12 dollars) and put the 15 towards the odds on the dc to back up the 10 dc).

...or, unfortunately, lose your $12 on the 6 and $10 on the DC if the shooter rolls a 7 on the first roll. (Yes, this has happened to me before...lol)