New Craps Bet Survey

THE IDEA HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN

Is this a bet that you are trying to market?

Quote: NewToCraps

For 4 or 10 the payout is 30 to 1.
For 5 or 9 the payout is 18 to 1.
For 6 or 8 the payout is 12.5 to 1.

If you have a limited budget:

5 dollars on the pass line only wins you 5 dollars when it wins.

5 or 6 dollars on the place number that is the point only wins you 7 or 9 dollars when it wins.

5 or 6 dollars on the Stay bet wins you between 75 to 150 dollars when it wins !

If you have a bigger budget and you are on a 10 dollar minimum table, by putting 10 dollars on the pass line with full odds wins you 70 dollars.

The same amount bet on a Stay bet wins you 1, 200 dollars when the point is 4 or 10. It wins you 900 dollars when the point is 5 or 9. It wins you 750 dollars when the point is 6 or 8.

Are you sure the bolded section is correct? I think a $10 bet would win $300 on a 4 or 10, $180 on a 5 or 9, and 125 on a 6 or 8.

Edit: realized that I forgot to figure in the odds bet. Do you see this bet only going in on 345 tables? Would it get less play on a table with 10 or 20x odds?

8-10% vig? No place to check lousy bet OR bigot.

Quote: DeMango

8-10% vig? No place to check lousy bet OR bigot.

LOL

I vote for "bigot"!

Quote: DeMango

8-10% vig? No place to check lousy bet OR bigot.

Actually figures are 8.33 for 4 or 10, 6.67 for 5 or 9 and 4.25 for 6 or 8.

I've added the high HE and low HE ratios that could be used in the table.

But, I need this feedback to help me finalize the bet structure, and really appreciate your comments.

Jim

Quote: superrick

Is this a bet that you are trying to market?

Yes, I have a patent pending and presented it to SHFL last week.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Quote: DeMango

8-10% vig? No place to check lousy bet OR bigot.

LOL

I vote for "bigot"!

I'm not sure what your comment means. I am interested in opinions about a bet I developed and am going to try to market. ???

Jim

I saw this bet at the SHFL Demo. I gave feedback at that time.

I don't want to infuence anyone's opinion yet, so my only comment is that my prior comments still stand.

I'll provide my own comments in a couple days.

Quote: rdw4potus

Are you sure the bolded section is correct? I think a $10 bet would win $300 on a 4 or 10, $180 on a 5 or 9, and 125 on a 6 or 8.

Edit: realized that I forgot to figure in the odds bet. Do you see this bet only going in on 345 tables? Would it get less play on a table with 10 or 20x odds?

I'm don't think higher odds table would affect things, but great comment. The higher odds table would still offer only a 2 to 1 payout ratio on 4 or 10 as an example vs my bet payout much higher. If someone puts that much money on odds, they should be able to afford an extra $5 to $10 dollars on my bet just to see if it hits.

Thanks again for the comments. (PS - I changed to section explaining the total wager amount to show pass line and odds amounts) Jim

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I saw this bet at the SHFL Demo. I gave feedback at that time.

I don't want to infuence anyone's opinion yet, so my only comment is that my prior comments still stand.

I'll provide my own comments in a couple days.

I appreciated your comments then ... PS see how I changed the payouts based on the place bet to hop bet idea that was mentioned. Also, I was NOT chewing gum when I wrote this post. LOL

Jim

Quote: NewToCraps

If someone puts that much money on odds, they should be able to afford an extra $5 to $10 dollars on my bet just to see if it hits.

I could see that. But most people who play full odds do it to lower the house edge per dollar wagered. Those people are unlikely to play a high-edge bet like this.

I do think this could be an attractive alternative to the fire bet. Higher hit rate, lower payouts, similar edge - if I were going to make a multi-roll bet, I'd probably place this before I'd place the fire bet.

Quote: NewToCraps

Actually figures are 8.33 for 4 or 10, 8.89 for 5 or 9 and 7.20 for 6 or 8.Jim

care to show your work?
Thanks

Quote: 7craps

care to show your work?
Thanks

Although it is a two part bet, the HE for the second part is te same as the HE for a single roll bet. If the first part of the bet wins, on a 4 or 10 for example, based on a $5 bet and true odds being used - the wager amount is now worth $15. If that were the wager amount on a single roll of 4 or 10 which has 3 outcomes of a win and 33 outcomes of a loss the total amount needed to be wagered to complete the bet is 36 times $15 or $540. Winning events amount is 3 times $150 plus 3 times the original bet of $15 which totals $495. Subtracting $495 from $540 is a difference of $45. This divided by the total wagered amount of $540 is 8.33 percent. Same process for the other two options.

I am a "want-a-be" game inventor not a math expert, so maybe if the Wizard or another math expert could let me know if I am right or wrong.

Thanks, Jim

Quote: rdw4potus

I could see that. But most people who play full odds do it to lower the house edge per dollar wagered. Those people are unlikely to play a high-edge bet like this.

I do think this could be an attractive alternative to the fire bet. Higher hit rate, lower payouts, similar edge - if I were going to make a multi-roll bet, I'd probably place this before I'd place the fire bet.

Great comments ... THANKS !!!

Here's some unsolicited advice:

a) 12.5 to 1 is unwieldy. Change that. Either 12 or 13 for the superstitious, but not 12.5.

b) No need to make it a contract bet. You want players to pull it if the point is made.

c) The bet seems jumbled up to me. It's not a come bet yet it's made after the come-out roll, but then it extends through the next come-out roll. Why does that make sense to a craps player?

d) There was a side bet called Pete and Repeat. This somewhat reminds me of that, just for limited circumstances.

e) I don't think you need this to be related to the point at all. You could let the player make it anytime, on any box number. It's a place bet, except to win you need to roll the selected number twice in a row. You might have an easier time selling it that way.

f) You're going to have a lot of grumbling players when they hit the number the first time and then roll a natural Yo on the comeout. That's universally a good thing for right-way bettors, but it makes your bet lose.

g) I developed a bet called Hard Pass that pays 80-1 if the shooter comes out on a hard number and makes the point the hard way. One version involved a "Right Back" bonus, where if you won the bet with back-to-back hardways (come-out and then make the point), it paid a lot more. You could still win if the shooter made the point after that first roll, just a smaller amount. That seems to apply to your bet, except yours can *only* win right away, not later. If you added a way to win later, then your bet would basically become a "Double Place Bet with Right Back bonus." I think that would make more sense to players: the idea is that you hit your chosen number twice before a 7, and the bet pays a bonus if you do it back-to-back -- that last piece is how your bet works now. Of course, there are at least two other bets based on rolling numbers twice before a 7 so I'd doubt you could get any sort of patent protection the idea of a Double Place Bet.

h) Also, I don't think your numbers are right, but I only looked at the 6/8 bet. What's the edge you get for a 12.5 payout?

This is what I see......craps has a lot of options for betting as it is, so to introduce a new bet to the game, it needs to be a compelling option that is unlike what is already available in the standard game.

I don't think the Stay Bet gets over this hurdle, here are my reasons:

1) despite the higher pays, it is simply a combination of the Place and Hop Bets with a mandatory parlay feature
2) the maximum payout is 30-1
3) Despite being a "multi-roll" bet, it really is a short lived bet. The point is made, watch the next roll, win or lose, game over

Side bets that have been successful in this area tend to offer longer multi-roll paths to payment and offer maximum payouts that exceed the 30-1 pay that is currently available.

The Fire and Small/Tall/All (Bonus Craps) have/are gaining installs as a result of offering "longer journey/higher pay outs" type of action.

Bonus Craps offers the additional feature of making every roll of the dice a potentially important event. Rolling 6/6, 1/1, 5/6 & 1/2 after the point has been established are big steps in getting your Tall or Small wagers to win. The bet has successfully made these mid roll "non event" numbers important.

Quote: Paradigm

This is what I see......craps has a lot of options for betting as it is, so to introduce a new bet to the game, it needs to be a compelling option that is unlike what is already available in the standard game.

I don't think the Stay Bet gets over this hurdle, here are my reasons:

1) despite the higher pays, it is simply a combination of the Place and Hop Bets with a mandatory parlay feature
2) the maximum payout is 30-1
3) Despite being a "multi-roll" bet, it really is a short lived bet. The point is made, watch the next roll, win or lose, game over

Side bets that have been successful in this area tend to offer longer multi-roll paths to payment and offer maximum payouts that exceed the 30-1 pay that is currently available.

The Fire and Small/Tall/All (Bonus Craps) have/are gaining installs as a result of offering "longer journey/higher pay outs" type of action.

Bonus Craps offers the additional feature of making every roll of the dice a potentially important event. Rolling 6/6, 1/1, 5/6 & 1/2 after the point has been established are big steps in getting your Tall or Small wagers to win. The bet has successfully made these mid roll "non event" numbers important.

Thanks ... taking all comments into consideration and yours are very helpful.

Quote: MathExtremist

Here's some unsolicited advice:

a) 12.5 to 1 is unwieldy. Change that. Either 12 or 13 for the superstitious, but not 12.5.

b) No need to make it a contract bet. You want players to pull it if the point is made.

c) The bet seems jumbled up to me. It's not a come bet yet it's made after the come-out roll, but then it extends through the next come-out roll. Why does that make sense to a craps player?

d) There was a side bet called Pete and Repeat. This somewhat reminds me of that, just for limited circumstances.

e) I don't think you need this to be related to the point at all. You could let the player make it anytime, on any box number. It's a place bet, except to win you need to roll the selected number twice in a row. You might have an easier time selling it that way.

f) You're going to have a lot of grumbling players when they hit the number the first time and then roll a natural Yo on the comeout. That's universally a good thing for right-way bettors, but it makes your bet lose.

g) I developed a bet called Hard Pass that pays 80-1 if the shooter comes out on a hard number and makes the point the hard way. One version involved a "Right Back" bonus, where if you won the bet with back-to-back hardways (come-out and then make the point), it paid a lot more. You could still win if the shooter made the point after that first roll, just a smaller amount. That seems to apply to your bet, except yours can *only* win right away, not later. If you added a way to win later, then your bet would basically become a "Double Place Bet with Right Back bonus." I think that would make more sense to players: the idea is that you hit your chosen number twice before a 7, and the bet pays a bonus if you do it back-to-back -- that last piece is how your bet works now. Of course, there are at least two other bets based on rolling numbers twice before a 7 so I'd doubt you could get any sort of patent protection the idea of a Double Place Bet.

h) Also, I don't think your numbers are right, but I only looked at the 6/8 bet. What's the edge you get for a 12.5 payout?

I really appreciate your thoughts ... a lot of very good points.

regarding a) I used 12.5 as the payout ratio so that a $6 dollar bet would pay an easy to payout amount for the dealers - $75 (three green). The draw back as you stated is that it is a number with a fraction instead of 12 or 13, but 12 would pay $72 and 13 would pay $78. Also I wanted to keep the HE for all three different options 4/10, 5/9, 6/8 in the same neighborhood.

Thanks again for your time and all the comments. Jim

Quote: rdw4potus

I do think this could be an attractive alternative to the fire bet. Higher hit rate, lower payouts, similar edge - if I were going to make a multi-roll bet, I'd probably place this before I'd place the fire bet.

Doesn't the Fire Bet have a HE of around 20% ?

I thought I would structure mine to be in the 7 to 10 range, but all the comments so far are making me think I should have the HE lower. To have somewhat easy payout amounts I could get it down to the 4 to 6 range, but to go lower than that then requires some wierd payout amounts. Thoughts on that ?

Thanks again, Jim

ADDED info:

numbers HE payout
4 or 10 2.78 $160
5 or 9 1.78 $98 (weird amount)
6 or 8 1.94 $80

Quote: NewToCraps

Doesn't the Fire Bet have a HE of around 20% ?

I thought I would structure mine to be in the 7 to 10 range, but all the comments so far are making me think I should have the HE lower. To have somewhat easy payout amounts I could get it down to the 4 to 6 range, but to go lower than that then requires some wierd payout amounts. Thoughts on that ?

Thanks again, Jim

You could also go lower by changing a rule or two - 7-11 winner or craps on the second come-out could either kill the bet or not, whichever makes your HE get to the right spot. But I think you should start by proving that your initial HE numbers are right. If Math Extremist and 7 Craps can't follow your math, there's a good chance that either your math or explanation is off somewhere...

Quote: rdw4potus

You could also go lower by changing a rule or two - 7-11 winner or craps on the second come-out could either kill the bet or not, whichever makes your HE get to the right spot. But I think you should start by proving that your initial HE numbers are right. If Math Extremist and 7 Craps can't follow your math, there's a good chance that either your math or explanation is off somewhere...

COOL idea .... Yes, I am not sure on the math being right ... important to have the right starting point.

Quote: NewToCraps

Yes, I am not sure on the math being right ... important to have the right starting point.

Wish I could help with that, but there's a reason that I left myself off the list of folks who should be able to verify your numbers:-)

Quote: MathExtremist

Here's some unsolicited advice:c) The bet seems jumbled up to me.
It's not a come bet yet it's made after the come-out roll, but then it extends through the next come-out roll.
Why does that make sense to a craps player?

I like it. the right ways players are celebrating a point win.
Why not win again on the next roll.
I do not like that part

Quote: MathExtremist

f) You're going to have a lot of grumbling players when they hit the number the first time and then roll a natural Yo on the comeout. That's universally a good thing for right-way bettors, but it makes your bet lose.

I agree. The bet should not lose if a natural is thrown on the next come out rolls.
Only if there is a different point established.
I would like that too. The payoffs would have to be lower but that is simple for most.

Quote: MathExtremist

h) Also, I don't think your numbers are right, but I only looked at the 6/8 bet.
What's the edge you get for a 12.5 payout?

ME, you know his house edge numbers are just wrong.
These are just 3 more sucker bets that right way players might enjoy making until they realize
they just can not win enough times to keep making it. (they lose too much for the payoffs)
You are a math expert.

For one thing, where is the, "Stay bet," going to be positioned? Are you going to simply have a lammer that states, "Stay," on it used for such a bet? If the bet would require a separate felt, then the casino would need to believe (ahead of time) that the revenue derived from this bet will be worth making all of the necessary changes, along with the expense associated with whatever you would charge with the proprietary felt.

Finally, do you mean ANY OTHER NUMBER on the Come Out loses, or if any other point is established? If you meant the former, then the probability of winning on a point of Four, in Stage One, with three ways to win and six ways to lose is 1/3, then the probability of Stage Two being successful is 3/36, or 1/12, so:

Point of Four or Ten

1/3 * 1/12 = .027777777 or 2.78%

You have .027777777 chance of winning thirty units v. a .972222222 chance of losing one unit, so I get a House Edge of:

(.0277777777 * 30) - (.9722222222 * 1) = -.1388888912 or a House Edge of 13.89%.

Point of Five or Nine

2/5 * 1/9 = .0444444444 or 4.44%

You have 0.044444444 to win 18 units v. a .95555556 to lose one unit, so I get a House Edge of:

(.044444444 * 18) - (1 * .955555556) = -.155555564, or a House Edge of 15.6%

Point of Six or Eight

5/11 * 5/36 = .0631313131

You have .06313131 to win 12.5 units v. .93686869 to lose one unit, so:

(.06313131 * 12.5) - (1 * .93686869) = -.147727315, or a House Edge of 14.77%

Opinion

Okay, so $20 on the Four or Ten wins $600 with a probability of 2.78%

However, if I make a $20 Buy Four/Ten bet, $1 Commission, one win returns +$40, and I parlay for $60, paying $3 commission, another win returns $120 and I parlay for $180 paying a $9 commission, another win and I am at $360 getting back $540 less a commission of $13 for a total return of $527, less the original $20 for $507.

My only enemy in this parlay is the Seven, which makes my probability of winning any individual trial:

(1/3)^3 = .03703703703

The average overall loss on this parlay, when it fails:

((21 * 2/3) + (24 * (1/3 * 2/3) + (33 * (1/3 * 1/3 * 2/3)) = 21.77777777777775

Okay, so my expected return is:

(.03703703703 * 507) - (21.7777777777775 * (1-.03703703703)) = -2.193415641580849

Compared to your bet with an expected return of (-.1388888912 * 20) =-2.777777824

So, I risk a bet more, and I get paid a bit less, but my expected return is much better with the full press parlay. My probability of winning is also considerably better.

I say cool concept, and maybe someone will toss a dollar at it every now and then, but I think even a semi-knowledgeable recreational player will know the parlay is better if he is betting red or higher going for a big win.

If I bet on a number and that number comes in, I want to be paid. I'm not about to bet 10 bucks and see my number as a point come in 1, 2 0r 10 times and not get paid because it fails to hit on the come out roll.

Quote: Mission146

For one thing, where is the, "Stay bet," going to be positioned? Are you going to simply have a lammer that states, "Stay," on it used for such a bet? If the bet would require a separate felt, then the casino would need to believe (ahead of time) that the revenue derived from this bet will be worth making all of the necessary changes, along with the expense associated with whatever you would charge with the proprietary felt.

Finally, do you mean ANY OTHER NUMBER on the Come Out loses, or if any other point is established? If you meant the former, then the probability of winning on a point of Four, in Stage One, with three ways to win and six ways to lose is 1/3, then the probability of Stage Two being successful is 3/36, or 1/12, so:

Point of Four or Ten

1/3 * 1/12 = .027777777 or 2.78%

You have .027777777 chance of winning thirty units v. a .972222222 chance of losing one unit, so I get a House Edge of:

(.0277777777 * 30) - (.9722222222 * 1) = -.1388888912 or a House Edge of 13.89%.

Point of Five or Nine

2/5 * 1/9 = .0444444444 or 4.44%

You have 0.044444444 to win 18 units v. a .95555556 to lose one unit, so I get a House Edge of:

(.044444444 * 18) - (1 * .955555556) = -.155555564, or a House Edge of 15.6%

Point of Six or Eight

5/11 * 5/36 = .0631313131

You have .06313131 to win 12.5 units v. .93686869 to lose one unit, so:

(.06313131 * 12.5) - (1 * .93686869) = -.147727315, or a House Edge of 14.77%

Opinion

Okay, so $20 on the Four or Ten wins $600 with a probability of 2.78%

However, if I make a $20 Buy Four/Ten bet, $1 Commission, one win returns +$40, and I parlay for $60, paying $3 commission, another win returns $120 and I parlay for $180 paying a $9 commission, another win and I am at $360 getting back $540 less a commission of $13 for a total return of $527 less the original $20 for $507.

My only enemy in this parlay is the Seven, which makes my probability of winning any individual trial:

(1/3)^3 = .03703703703

The average overall loss on this parlay, when it fails:

((21 * 2/3) + (24 * (1/3 * 2/3) + (33 * (1/3 * 1/3 * 2/3)) = 21.77777777777775

Okay, so my expected return is:

(.03703703703 * 507) - (21.7777777777775 * (1-.03703703703)) = -2.193415641580849

Compared to your bet with an expected return of (-.1388888912 * 20) =-2.777777824

So, I risk a bet more, and I get paid a bit less, but my expected return is much better with the full press parlay. My probability of winning is also considerably better.

I say cool concept, and maybe someone will toss a dollar at it every now and then, but I think even a semi-knowledgeable recreational player will know the parlay is better if he is betting red or higher going for a big win.

WOW ... thanks for the excellant response ... I will digest the numbers, you are too fast for my knowledge....LOL

I tried to get a picture of the layout to show up, but the formatting code didn't work. The bets are located just above the place bet locations. Another "4" is just above the lay area of the place "4", another "5" is just above the lay area of the place "5', etc. I did not want to have a lammer used for purposes of getting the patent to go through easier. Some examiners would say that a pervious patent taught the use of a lammer to track a bet, if I understand how they can look at things. Plus a lammer involves more dealer participation of moving it, etc.

Any other number on the come out losses (I'll go back and re write that section to clarify it) so that there are 3 winning events and 33 lossing events.

Thanks so much for your response. Jim

Quote: Paradigm

This is what I see......craps has a lot of options for betting as it is, so to introduce a new bet to the game, it needs to be a compelling option that is unlike what is already available in the standard game.

I don't think the Stay Bet gets over this hurdle, here are my reasons:

1) despite the higher pays, it is simply a combination of the Place and Hop Bets with a mandatory parlay feature
2) the maximum payout is 30-1
3) Despite being a "multi-roll" bet, it really is a short lived bet. The point is made, watch the next roll, win or lose, game over

Side bets that have been successful in this area tend to offer longer multi-roll paths to payment and offer maximum payouts that exceed the 30-1 pay that is currently available.

The Fire and Small/Tall/All (Bonus Craps) have/are gaining installs as a result of offering "longer journey/higher pay outs" type of action.

Bonus Craps offers the additional feature of making every roll of the dice a potentially important event. Rolling 6/6, 1/1, 5/6 & 1/2 after the point has been established are big steps in getting your Tall or Small wagers to win. The bet has successfully made these mid roll "non event" numbers important.

Paradigm has nailed my thoughts as well.

I love craps and play A LOT when I get to a casino. But I like to try and play with a goal of keeping the HE in mind. Thus, I never play the Horn, Any C/E, Big Red, World, etc. I will not play the field at all with 2x on 2 and 12. I will play the hardways, on occasion, but not much.

I am not married to the Come bet, instead preferring to put my action on the PL and Buy bets, along with the 6/8 place bet. I do admit to placing the 5/9 way more often than I should.

So, I will make most any bet that has less than a 2% HE, and many bets that are under 3%.

There are two exceptions:
The fire bet, and the Small/Tall/All bets.
And Paradigm has hit on EXACTLY why I will play those bets. The chance at a big payday for little invested.

$5 Fire bet rarely hits, but I get paid $125 enough to keep me playing. I have received the 5 fire twice, but have never gotten paid on the 6 fire yet.

$15 on the S/T/A bet has 2 chances to pay me $175, and if the whole thing hits, I get a total of $1,225 I believe.

Those are good payouts, and I enjoy making that bet, and at 7%, the STA is not outrageous. If that bet was in the 10% range, I don't play it.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Paradigm has nailed my thoughts as well.

I love craps and play A LOT when I get to a casino. But I like to try and play with a goal of keeping the HE in mind. Thus, I never play the Horn, Any C/E, Big Red, World, etc. I will not play the field at all with 2x on 2 and 12. I will play the hardways, on occasion, but not much.

I am not married to the Come bet, instead preferring to put my action on the PL and Buy bets, along with the 6/8 place bet. I do admit to placing the 5/9 way more often than I should.

So, I will make most any bet that has less than a 2% HE, and many bets that are under 3%.

There are two exceptions:
The fire bet, and the Small/Tall/All bets.
And Paradigm has hit on EXACTLY why I will play those bets. The chance at a big payday for little invested.

$5 Fire bet rarely hits, but I get paid $125 enough to keep me playing. I have received the 5 fire twice, but have never gotten paid on the 6 fire yet.

$15 on the S/T/A bet has 2 chances to pay me $175, and if the whole thing hits, I get a total of $1,225 I believe.

Those are good payouts, and I enjoy making that bet, and at 7%, the STA is not outrageous. If that bet was in the 10% range, I don't play it.

Looks like it means back to the drawing board a bit. I resect both your cooments as well as others here - alot. I may have to come up with a "jackpot" bet to compete with the Fire bet and small tall .. darn SHFL and Galaxy. Back to work .... tomorrow maybe I'll have a better idea as the saying goes.

Thanks. Jim

Quote: RaleighCraps

So, I will make most any bet that has less than a 2% HE, and many bets that are under 3%.

There are two exceptions:
The fire bet, and the Small/Tall/All bets.
And Paradigm has hit on EXACTLY why I will play those bets. The chance at a big payday for little invested.

$5 Fire bet rarely hits, but I get paid $125 enough to keep me playing. I have received the 5 fire twice, but have never gotten paid on the 6 fire yet.

$15 on the S/T/A bet has 2 chances to pay me $175, and if the whole thing hits, I get a total of $1,225 I believe.

Those are good payouts, and I enjoy making that bet, and at 7%, the STA is not outrageous. If that bet was in the 10% range, I don't play it.

Okay, market research time. Which of the following would you make/not make?

a) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $400 (80-to-1) at 9.1% edge?
b) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $425 (85-to-1) at 3.5% edge?
c) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $1125 right back or $125 otherwise, at 9.1% edge?
d) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $750 right back or $250 otherwise, at 11.9% edge?
e) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $1000 right back or $200 otherwise, at 4.60% edge?

I assume (b) and (e) are yes, but what about the others?

Quote: NewToCraps

Looks like it means back to the drawing board a bit.
I resect both your cooments as well as others here - alot.
I may have to come up with a "jackpot" bet to compete with the Fire bet and small tall .. darn SHFL and Galaxy.
Back to work .... tomorrow maybe I'll have a better idea as the saying goes.

Thanks. Jim

The higher the jackpots the lower the hit frequencies.
Craps players still want action and wins.
As a Craps player and Craps Dealer I do like the idea of the bet.
The idea changes IMO should be around the lose on a 7 or 11 winner on the very next roll after a point win.
To me that sucks.

I would only want to win if the next point established was a repeat. Sounds right.
Even at 20 to 1 down to 9 to 1 adds fun to the very next point to be established.

Or you can even have the next point to be established say point winner was a 4 ,
players win the bet if the next point established is a 4 or a 10.
This would lower the payoffs, (like 10,6,4)
but the house edge would be lower than a one roll prop bet (except the field)
and the hit frequencies would be higher.

Good Luck

Quote: MathExtremist

Okay, market research time. Which of the following would you make/not make?

a) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $400 (80-to-1) at 9.1% edge?
b) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $425 (85-to-1) at 3.5% edge?
c) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $1125 right back or $125 otherwise, at 9.1% edge?
d) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $750 right back or $250 otherwise, at 11.9% edge?
e) a $5 Hard Pass bet to win $1000 right back or $200 otherwise, at 4.60% edge?

I assume (b) and (e) are yes, but what about the others?

A component of the bet that Paradigm did not mention is the PERCEPTION of the bet. In other words, How often do I THINK the bet will win, understanding that my perception usually carries more weight than the math. I know the math is right, but my PERCEPTION needs to be that I can win this bet.

(My story about the 12s at GVR makes this point. I would NEVER recommend playing the 12, but the PERCEPTION was that 12s were showing up way too often, so I thought playing the trend made sense for the next 30 rolls. And for that time it worked out just fine.)

So, for Hard Pass, my first issue is my perception is that a hard way does not roll that often on a come out roll. I KNOW they happen, and I have thrown them often, but way too many times this bet would be an INSTANT loser, which is a turnoff for me.
So, my perception is, most of the time I am going to lose my bet right away. With that condition, I am not playing a bet with very much of a HE. So I'm not sure I would play this at any of the options above.
However, if I was on a table, and saw people getting paid on this bet, I 'might' get more interest.

So ME, to your question, it's not the payouts or the HE that is not doing it for me on this bet. It is my perception that I would lose way too many bets on the very first throw, even though I bet the math says otherwise.

ME, my vote is to either go with either the 85-1 simple hard way/hard way win event or if you add the "right back" feature to the bet, make the lowest pay equal 40-1 or higher and adjust your higher pay to whatever gets you into a 6-7% HE proposition.

For what it is worth, this simple bet concept makes it over the hurdle of providing higher pays than are currently available. Same with AceCraackers Double D side bet. To me these both have something to offer. I agree with Raleigh, perception is important, but Hard Way Pass, Fire Bet, Double D.....they are all "a dollar and a prayer" type situations. The point on Hard Way Pass is that you will lose on the initial roll 5 out of 6 times (I think?) and that may be a tough perception hurdle for players.

Next step is marketing these bets and getting them on the felt with an operator. It feels like these individual side bets would be hard to get on the felt one at a time.

Think of the marketing power of having a "Bonus Craps" install from Galaxy that offered Small/Tall/All, Hard Way Pass & Double D all for a single lease rate. Galaxy cuts a deal with ME & AA, adds those two bets to their Small/Tall/All offering in order to truly offer a true array of "Bonus Craps" betting options and has a package of Craps side bets to compete with the single Fire offering from SHFL.

As an operator I would think you would rather put this package of bonus bets on your craps table vs. just the Fire Bet. Small/Tall/All is pretty good on its own, but in a package with Double D and the Hard Way Pass you also get a "Fire" type bet in Double D and another prop bet in the middle that pays 80-1+, the only drawback is both of the additions focus on Hard Ways.

I think I would chose this package over the Fire Bet as an option if I wanted to add to the craps experience at my property. PaiGowDan needs to get on this :-)!

Quote: Paradigm

ME, my vote is to either go with either the 85-1 simple hard way/hard way win event or if you add the "right back" feature to the bet, make the lowest pay equal 40-1 or higher and adjust your higher pay to whatever gets you into a 6-7% HE proposition.

Once again, Paradigm has hit the mark, especially with the latter suggestion.
$5 bet, on Come out.
2-2 is rolled. My bet is alive.
If 2-2 comes right back, I win a LARGE amount.
If any other number, other than easy 4 or 7 is rolled, I can only win the lower 40-1 amount, but that is still a decent payout.
rolls continue. If easy 4 , or 7, I lose.
If 2-2 rolls to make the point, I win $200.

Bet is easy to understand, quick to set up, easy to see when you win and lose.
Bring the HE in to align with the 7% Small.Tall.All and as suggested, bundle it with that bet.

Quote: NewToCraps

WOW ... thanks for the excellant response ... I will digest the numbers, you are too fast for my knowledge....LOL

I tried to get a picture of the layout to show up, but the formatting code didn't work. The bets are located just above the place bet locations. Another "4" is just above the lay area of the place "4", another "5" is just above the lay area of the place "5', etc. I did not want to have a lammer used for purposes of getting the patent to go through easier. Some examiners would say that a pervious patent taught the use of a lammer to track a bet, if I understand how they can look at things. Plus a lammer involves more dealer participation of moving it, etc.

Any other number on the come out losses (I'll go back and re write that section to clarify it) so that there are 3 winning events and 33 lossing events.

Thanks so much for your response. Jim

You're very welcome!

I'm going to tell you the interesting thing about the Stay 4/10, the probability and House Edge is exactly the same as with the 2, 12 or any hard hop. The payout would be exactly the same, lose $20 or win $600, based on the most common pay I have seen of 30 to 1.

I'm also going to say that I like your bet better than that overall, but I see both upsides and downsides to both:

The Good

1.) I don't know precisely why, but your, "Stay," bet just seems more winnable. I think it could be because of reason number two, which is:

2.) Your stay bet is a multi-roll bet composed of two stages, if a player absolutely must eat the House Edge offered by your bet, at least your bet has a 5/6 chance of the player not being beaten after one roll.

3.) There's also a build-up and anticipation for a player to survive Stage One of your bet, now it is time for one roll, this is where it gets decided. The climax is quick, definitive, and very sexy. I still wouldn't touch it because of the House Edge.

The Bad

1.) The House Edge still sucks, it absolutely blows. The only worse bet you're likely to find on a given table is the, "Any Seven," or the, "Fire Bet." Maybe S+T+A is worse, don't remember, not looking at the moment.

2.) It seems that you wish to command a $5.00 Minimum with your bet, which absolutely sucks given the House Edge. The minimum on a 2, 12 or any Hard Hop is generally $1.00 and that is what your minimum should be, given the House Edge.

3.) The House Edge on your 5/9 or 6/8 is WORSE than the Midnight, Snake Eyes or Hard Hops. GAH!

4.) Some people prefer to have their one-roll props just be one roll props, realizing the payout is the same (for those who ignore HE completely), some of them are still going to prefer the Midnight, Snake Eyes or any Hard Way Hops.

5.) People can also bet the Midnight, Snake Eyes or Hard Hops bets anytime they want, and more than one at a time, if they so choose. Your bet only allows for one number to be bet at a time.

Advice

I hope you don't take offense, but I'm going to determine the probabilities later for a Stay Bet that only loses if the Point is Missed, or if the Point is made, but a different Point is later established and come up with pays for same. A Come Out 7, 11 or Any Craps number will be ignored. The only Second Stage loss will be if a different point is established. Let's see what we can do there payout-wise, and with a House Edge under 10%. I'll get on that tonight, late.

It feels too much like a hop bet to me that I actually don't have control over.

I assume I would be able to take this bet down?


In craps I seem to like the side bets that keep building up. I'm looking for that hot roll and I like the side bets to work with that concept.

I voted "ok and will play it" because I like exotic bets that go with a winning trend. It's why I also like the fire bet. I don't know "math" so I can't tell you if it's a good bet (but I don't think any bet at craps is a good bet) but I like the concept. We've all seen repeaters. Heck, especially when players have made three or four numbers on the fire bet they seem to repeat and repeat.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I voted "ok and will play it" because I like exotic bets that go with a winning trend. It's why I also like the fire bet. I don't know "math" so I can't tell you if it's a good bet (but I don't think any bet at craps is a good bet) but I like the concept. We've all seen repeaters. Heck, especially when players have made three or four numbers on the fire bet they seem to repeat and repeat.

That was a lot of my thought on it - being new to craps it sure seemed like my fire bets were having the same point number rolled over and over.
I am going to fix the math based on comments here, and time will tell if it will ever make it onto a table.

Quote: RaleighCraps

Once again, Paradigm has hit the mark, especially with the latter suggestion.
$5 bet, on Come out.
2-2 is rolled. My bet is alive.
If 2-2 comes right back, I win a LARGE amount.
If any other number, other than easy 4 or 7 is rolled, I can only win the lower 40-1 amount, but that is still a decent payout.
rolls continue. If easy 4 , or 7, I lose.
If 2-2 rolls to make the point, I win $200.

Bet is easy to understand, quick to set up, easy to see when you win and lose.
Bring the HE in to align with the 7% Small.Tall.All and as suggested, bundle it with that bet.

That's exactly how option (e) behaves, actually. Here's a rules summary:

Hard Pass with Right Back Bonus:
1) Come out roll: establish a hard point (hard 4, 6, 8, or 10) or lose the bet. The bet survives 1 in 9 come outs.
2) First roll after come out: pass the hard way and bet pays Right Back Bonus of 200-1 ($1000 on $5)
3) Any other roll after come out: pass the hard way and the bet pays normal pay of 40-1 ($200 on $5)
4) Pass the easy way or 7-out: bet loses.
House edge is 4.6%. Chance of winning the 200-1 Right Back pay is 1 in 324; chance of winning the 40-1 pay is 1 in 123. Overall is 1 in 89.

Thoughts?

Quote: MathExtremist

That's exactly how option (e) behaves, actually. Here's a rules summary:

Hard Pass with Right Back Bonus:
1) Come out roll: establish a hard point (hard 4, 6, 8, or 10) or lose the bet. The bet survives 1 in 9 come outs.
2) First roll after come out: pass the hard way and bet pays Right Back Bonus of 200-1 ($1000 on $5)
3) Any other roll after come out: pass the hard way and the bet pays normal pay of 40-1 ($200 on $5)
4) Pass the easy way or 7-out: bet loses.
House edge is 4.6%. Chance of winning the 200-1 Right Back pay is 1 in 324; chance of winning the 40-1 pay is 1 in 123. Overall is 1 in 89.

Thoughts?

The HE is in the range I would consider playing the bet, but I personally am still hung up on my perception factor. I don't believe in my history that I see a point being set by a hardway roll, 1 out of every 9 Come out rolls. But I will admit that I have never needed to pay attention to it before, so it could be happening and I am just not noticing it. And yes, this is very subjective, and not a reliable input, but nonetheless, it controls my betting to some extent.

That is what is inherently beautiful with the Small/Tall/All bet. Anyone who has played craps can instantly envision rolls where we have watched EVERY number come up multiple times, all why we sat and waited, and waited, for the pass line bet to resolve.

The Pete Repeat bet took advantage of another thing we see, which is the repeater point. Personally, I like to see the repeaters (the shooter already proved they could make the point, load 'em up), unless of course there is a Fire bet in play.

Your bet is offering a way to cash in for a good payday, on something that should happen once every couple of hours, perhaps (assuming 60 rolls/hr). I certainly don't doubt your math, I'm just having a hard time relating it to my previous play.

We have some of AHigh's roll data in other threads. It might be neat to make a $5 bet each comeout roll on some of his data, and see how this bet would have done.

It wouldn't be too hard to code a WinCraps session to count the number of times you set a point with a hardway, and also count the number of times the point loses, wins easy, and wins hardway. That could be some interesting data. Of course, if you run it for 1M rolls, it will come out just as your math predicts, so I would run it a few times at a 400 roll limit (which is roughly a 4-5 hour real session) and see how many wins it has.

Quote: Paradigm

This is what I see......craps has a lot of options for betting as it is, so to introduce a new bet to the game, it needs to be a compelling option that is unlike what is already available in the standard game.

I don't think the Stay Bet gets over this hurdle, here are my reasons:

1) despite the higher pays, it is simply a combination of the Place and Hop Bets with a mandatory parlay feature
2) the maximum payout is 30-1
3) Despite being a "multi-roll" bet, it really is a short lived bet. The point is made, watch the next roll, win or lose, game over

Side bets that have been successful in this area tend to offer longer multi-roll paths to payment and offer maximum payouts that exceed the 30-1 pay that is currently available.

The Fire and Small/Tall/All (Bonus Craps) have/are gaining installs as a result of offering "longer journey/higher pay outs" type of action.

Bonus Craps offers the additional feature of making every roll of the dice a potentially important event. Rolling 6/6, 1/1, 5/6 & 1/2 after the point has been established are big steps in getting your Tall or Small wagers to win. The bet has successfully made these mid roll "non event" numbers important.

My 2cents is that Paradigm has nailed all the shortfalls of this bet. The problem is that this bet does not follow craps as craps players understand it. As a pass line bettors, the game ends when a shooter sevens out. There are exceptions like the hardways and the field bets but I wouldn't follow the logic in losing if the roll immediately following a point made was not x and I lose. Also, craps have 30-1 payouts and if players want to parlay a win, they can get greater than this payout. Max payout of 30-1 does not excite a craps player enough to try this bet.

There are many good advice given by other from this forum and I would recommend that you "chew on it" and "digest" it fully. I like the idea of making the point and doing something else to get a bigger reward/payout but I do not think the answer is a hop bet.

Hey


we all try to bet as smart as we can, but also this game has to be fun and some times betting on something
like the fire bet or other types of bets and hitting them is fun and if you are with friends you all enjoy it.

You wont pay for your house doing it, but fun now and then is ok.

Gman

Quote: RaleighCraps

The HE is in the range I would consider playing the bet, but I personally am still hung up on my perception factor. I don't believe in my history that I see a point being set by a hardway roll, 1 out of every 9 Come out rolls. But I will admit that I have never needed to pay attention to it before, so it could be happening and I am just not noticing it. And yes, this is very subjective, and not a reliable input, but nonetheless, it controls my betting to some extent.

Understood. The math is straightforward, though: there are 4 hardways and 36 total ways to roll the dice; that's 1 in 9.

Quote:

Your bet is offering a way to cash in for a good payday, on something that should happen once every couple of hours, perhaps (assuming 60 rolls/hr). I certainly don't doubt your math, I'm just having a hard time relating it to my previous play.

Are you a hardway bettor? Based on what you wrote earlier you may not be, and if that's so then you're probably not paying much attention to whether numbers roll easy or hard, just what the totals are. The hardway bettors I've spoken with split roughly 2-1 liking this bet -- because (a) it doesn't matter which hardway happens on the comeout, (b) it's live on the comeout roll and (c) it pays better than the hardways and has a lower edge.

Virtually no hardway player books the hardway bets on the opening comeout roll of a new shooter, so if the shooter does go back-to-back, the most they stand to win is 9-1. But with a Hard Pass bet, when the point gets established hard, they don't need to make the corresponding hardway bet because they stand to win at least 40-1 for the same subsequent event.

Quote: Mission146

Advice

I hope you don't take offense, but I'm going to determine the probabilities later for a Stay Bet that only loses if the Point is Missed, or if the Point is made, but a different Point is later established and come up with pays for same. A Come Out 7, 11 or Any Craps number will be ignored. The only Second Stage loss will be if a different point is established. Let's see what we can do there payout-wise, and with a House Edge under 10%. I'll get on that tonight, late.

Unless I get on it this morning, early.

Pretty simple, really.

4/10: You have your one-third, and then 24 results matter and 12 are ignored. Three ways to make four, so 1/8th.

(1/3 * 1/8) = 0.041666666666666664

1 - 0.041666666666666664 = 0.9583333333333334

(21 * .041666666666666666664) - .95833333333333333334 = -.083333333333

Pays 21 to 1, House Edge of 8.333%.

5/9: You have your 2/5, then you mix in a little 1/6

2/5 * 1/6 = 0.06666666666666666

1 - 0.06666666666666666 = 0.9333333333333333

(.0666666666666666666 * 13) - .933333333333333333 = -0.06666666666666665

Pays 13 to 1, House Edge of 6.67%.

6/8: You have your 5/11, mix a little 5/24

5/11 * 5/24 = 0.0946969696969697

1-0.0946969696969697=0.9053030303030303

(9 * 0.0946969696969697) - 0.9053030303030303 = -0.05303030303030298

Pays 9 to 1, House Edge of 5.3%.

Payouts are a bit strange, but you can't do anything with the probabilities, so it is what it is. I guess you could make a Come Out Crap a loser, if you wanted to, Come Out 7/11 does nothing. The 24's become 28's. I'll do it tomorrow, but the method is there if you want to try it yourself before I get to it.

I think it's okay, but the minimum should still only be a buck. The better payouts have a slightly higher House Edge, that much makes sense.

Quote: AceCrAAckers

My 2cents is that Paradigm has nailed all the shortfalls of this bet. The problem is that this bet does not follow craps as craps players understand it. As a pass line bettors, the game ends when a shooter sevens out. There are exceptions like the hardways and the field bets but I wouldn't follow the logic in losing if the roll immediately following a point made was not x and I lose. Also, craps have 30-1 payouts and if players want to parlay a win, they can get greater than this payout. Max payout of 30-1 does not excite a craps player enough to try this bet.

There are many good advice given by other from this forum and I would recommend that you "chew on it" and "digest" it fully. I like the idea of making the point and doing something else to get a bigger reward/payout but I do not think the answer is a hop bet.

Good advice from everyone ... one day of comments has helped me with many issues - expecially my math and HE ideas, which as it was put "sucks", LOL it did. I will "chew on it" and see where I go from here.

I do know one thing - I will be using different payout ratios. I am leaning towards the following now that I realize that I was on the high side with HE in the 7-9 range, plus i want to exceed the existing 30-1 prop bet ratios.

New payout ratios:

Point 4 or 10
Payout 33-1
HE 5.56 - it could go to 34-1 for a HE of 2.78

Point 5 or 9
Payout 20-1
HE 6.67 - it could go to 21-1 for a HE of 2.22

Point 6 or 8
Payout 85-6 (14 1/6-1)
HE 4.25 - it could go to 14.5-1 for a HE of 2.15 but that is a payout of $87 on a $6 bet.

14 1/6 is a weird ratio, but I want to make the payout easy for a dealer ($85).

Does that help regarding some of the concerns about the high HE ?


My whole approach was to make it almost like having another place bet option (the wager location is just above the place bets), that ends up with a higher payout, by having a second step involved. By chips being active in the Stay Bet wager box after the point is made gives the feeling of something going on rather than how the place bets are no longer active on the come out roll. The dealer isn't burdened with much new to do other than to set chips in the wager box, pay out the bet if it wins or remove the bet is it losses. No lammer markers, or "count" markers. They don't have to remember what the point was to know if the bet wins on the second part ... the chips are in the appropriate wager box at that point.

I came up with the idea (remember I am new to craps) while watching what seemed like a lot of points being made with the same point number being re-established again. I am not an analyser of craps as many are here on this site, so I didn't see it a a pass line bet that was parlayed to a hop bet. (Although that combination does not pay as well as my bet, and if you are concerned about HE and options to limit your losses and increase your winnings, use the bet that pays better - see the comparison below). I see craps as simplicity, anticipation and excitement - thus my bet made sense to me to provide those with the higher payout with just one bet that has a second step to keep you anticipating the win - not by moving wagers on and off different types of bets.

COMPARISION OF STAY BET VS PLACE BET PARLAY TO HOP BET FOR THE 4 OR 10:

Stay Bet 4 or 10 $20 wager pays $660 using the 33-1 ratio.

Place Bet 4 or 10 (Buy it with vig only on payout) pays $39. Taking the $39 plus $20 ($59) and splitting it up between the 2-2 hop and the 3-1 hop pays out either $581 or $604. the Stay Bet pays around $60 to $80 more .... (CORRECTED FIGURES)

The short lived issue is a plus in my book ... If I can win $165 in two rolls on a $5 bet, vs waiting for 4 different points to be made to get a $125 fire bet payout on a $5 bet - I like short lived. While the four points are being made for the fire bet, I may have won a couple of stay bets.

Of course with this being my "baby" I am like all parents - my baby is cute and does no wrong.

Enough with the Stay Bet. In the next day or two I will present a bet that may satisfy some of the comments made here ... the SOSI Bet (I developed both these bets around the same time over the past couple months). Gonna get that payout ratio cranked up to 1,000-1 like the fire bet, but in just a handful of rolls of the dice, instead of after 6 different points having to be made. Gonna get the dark side betters thinking about if they have to always bet on the dark side, and also eliminate some of the disapointment of that dreaded seven-out... Coming to a theater craps table near you soon ... the SOSI Bet. (I like anticipation).

Jim

Place $20 on 4 and win, you will have $59. Let us assume you make a $20 2-2 hop and $39 1-3 hop bet. If it comes out 2-2 you will have $620 and if it come out 1-3, you will have $624.

If you made a $19 2-2 hop and $40 1-3 hop bet the payout will be $589 for 2-2 and $640 for 1-3 roll.

Quote: Mission146

Advice

I hope you don't take offense, but I'm going to determine the ....



I think it's okay, but the minimum should still only be a buck. The better payouts have a slightly higher House Edge, that much makes sense.

I don't take offense at all ... you have taught me how to figure HE, where I was way off previously. I really appreciate your comments.

The reason I have it set up as a table minimum is that the wager boxes look similar and are located by the place bet wager boxes. I see it as a "place bet on steroids" type of bet. Also, when dealers ask a player where to move a previous place bet wager once a point is established on that number, why not give them another option to say "move it to the stay bet". I think in terms of place bets either being $5 or $6, so I thought in the same terms for my Stay Bet.

I wish my .jpg would have showed up in the original posting (not sure what I did wrong with formatting code) ... a picture is worth a thousand craps chips.

Thanks again, Jim

Quote: MathExtremist

That's exactly how option (e) behaves, actually. Here's a rules summary:

Hard Pass with Right Back Bonus:
1) Come out roll: establish a hard point (hard 4, 6, 8, or 10) or lose the bet. The bet survives 1 in 9 come outs.
2) First roll after come out: pass the hard way and bet pays Right Back Bonus of 200-1 ($1000 on $5)
3) Any other roll after come out: pass the hard way and the bet pays normal pay of 40-1 ($200 on $5)
4) Pass the easy way or 7-out: bet loses.
House edge is 4.6%. Chance of winning the 200-1 Right Back pay is 1 in 324; chance of winning the 40-1 pay is 1 in 123. Overall is 1 in 89.

Thoughts?

Don't even have to double-check your math, you're infinity times better at it than I am!!!

Okay, so from a pure playing perspective:

The Good

1.) I like the opportunity for a payout greater than 30 to 1 that has a better chance of winning than the Fire Bet. I think any kind of a new Craps side bet should really be all about that, "Jackpot," type win, because that is the only thing a standard Craps layout is missing, in my opinion.

2.) I like the fact that the bet, as the Fire Bet, has multiple stages.

3.) I also like the fact that this bet initially covers all of the Hard Ways, keeps someone from asking, "Well, why don't I just pick one and full press parlay it at a lower House Edge?"

4.) Another thing about the Hard parlay, interestingly, your bet is more likely to succeed (at some point) than a player is to win on two consecutive Hard 6/8 bets, and it's really close to two consecutive Hard 4/10's, anyway.

The Bad

1.) I don't like that the bet gets killed on the Come Out roll eight out of nine times. How many consecutive times would someone see this bet lose on the Come Out roll before saying, "Screw it," my personal answer is five, and that's for a buck, even with a sub-5% House Edge. For $5.00, I'm probably not making this bet, anyway. If I may ask:

A.) What could you do to the smaller payout (leaving the big boy at 200 to 1) if you only had the bet lose on the Come Out to a non-hard point, with Any Crap, Seven and Yo being irrelevant on the Come Out?

or

B.) If you did the same as A, but dropped the payout to 100 to 1 for the big boy, what would you be able to put the smaller payout at?

Advice

That's basically it: How many consecutive times can someone get slapped on the Come Out roll before they get sick of it? That's really the only problem, unless you plan on the Minimum bet being $5.00, then I'd also consider that a problem, but who knows.

Consider the Fire Bet, the only advantage it has over this is that the player MUST be involved for more than one roll. The Fire Bet cannot lose on the opening Come Out roll, or any other, for that matter. The Fire Bet involves the player, though, and your bet could involve the player, too, but not if he isn't getting to the point where he sees the light at the end of the tunnel...or if there isn't at least the occasional build-up (7/11, Any Craps) wondering if he will get to that point.

Think of that 8/9, I don't need to tell you, if the player makes five consecutive Hard Pass bets, they all five fail on the Come Out 55.5% of the time. Ten consecutive fail on the Come Out 30.8% of the time. Twenty fail almost 10% of the time.

My limit is five, and the probability says I should have five in a row fail to reach the next level. And, again, that's for a buck.

Quote: AceCrAAckers

Place $20 on 4 and win, you will have $59. Let us assume you make a $20 2-2 hop and $39 1-3 hop bet. If it comes out 2-2 you will have $620 and if it come out 1-3, you will have $624.

If you made a $19 2-2 hop and $40 1-3 hop bet the payout will be $589 for 2-2 and $640 for 1-3 roll.

Don't you have to subtract the losing bet ... $20 times 30-1 is $600 plus your original $20 minus the $39 is $581 ???

Quote: NewToCraps

New payout ratios:

Point 4 or 10
Payout 33-1
HE 5.56 - it could go to 34-1 for a HE of 2.78

Point 5 or 9
Payout 20-1
HE 6.67 - it could go to 21-1 for a HE of 2.22

Point 6 or 8
Payout 85-6 (14 1/6-1)
HE 4.25 - it could go to 14.5-1 for a HE of 2.15 but that is a payout of $87 on a $6 bet.

14 1/6 is a weird ratio, but I want to make the payout easy for a dealer ($85).

Does that help regarding some of the concerns about the high HE ?

I haven't double-checked those, but, my friend, you want to give me a shot at a big payout against a House Edge the same or better than a Field that Triples Midnight, I've got some red chips for you, let's gamble! Four to Play, Four to Stay, and Four to Pay...One Time!!!

Hey, cool for a sig, that's this month's!

I mean the sub-3% HE's, of course.

We'll go with a Red, besides, my Odds bets are a natural Hedge against an Easy 4/10 and have a HE of 0.00%, anyway.