Biased Dice: The science begins

Quote: tupp

2. They would have to prove that the face counts were false.

Quote: SanchoPanza

No they would not, because the counts are meaningless.

Quote: tupp

That's interesting, because a noted gambling expert and actuary on this site (who is often hired by casinos and gaming manufacturers) has said that the only way to judge bias is by counting rolls/faces at actual casinos.

I respectfully disagree, tupp, though I will admit I was not a party to the conversation with Wizard about his views concerning this thread and the proposed study as designed by Ahigh.

What I thought happened was merely Wizard agreeing to evaluate the data that was collected from a statistical or probability analysis to determine if the recorded faces were inconsistent with what would be expected with random rolls. Indeed, I don't think Wizard said much more than the following:

Quote: Wizard

I promised to participate in this thread if I saw some evidence collected under casino conditions.

That does not necessarily mean that "the only way to judge bias is by counting faces at actual casinos," and I think to take Wizard's remarks to reach that conclusion is way too much of a leap.

There have been a number of studies done utilizing more reliable scientific methods that I would assume Wizard and anyone else would agree are acceptable ways--even more acceptable than this study-- to judge bias in dice.

This whole study is nothing more than a barometer to indicate a possibility for concern.

I think anyone who thinks that damning evidence would be a result of this study fail to understand how similar the most ideally theoretically biased dice would look like fair dice. I think they also fail to understand that we're talking about splitting hairs here in doubling a very low house edge of 1.41% up to 2.82% or in the case of free odds adding a little house edge to the bet that should not be there.

People should learn from this thread, not go nuts and making crazy accusations to one another as a result of it.

Earlier post: "It's not just the casino that I would record but the dice manufacturer as well. The coldest table I witnessed yesterday was at the Wynn and the dice were Midwest dice. Players at this table lost over $50,000 while I watched. It was very very cold. I lost too, and bet equally on every shooter. After I lost, I came back with another buy-in but they changed the table from $25 minimum to $100 and I decided not to play there any more."

In other news, players at a Craps table at Jokers Wild lost $73 yesterday.

People lose $50K all the time at Wynn. That is why the place was built.

Why didnt Aaron or anyone else start betting the Darkside and see if they pulled the dice? Would they have had to call Steve to see what to do. He has to be in on this as well.

Quote: Jimbo

What I thought happened was merely Wizard agreeing to evaluate the data that was collected from a statistical or probability analysis to determine if the recorded faces were inconsistent with what would be expected with random rolls. Indeed, I don't think Wizard said much more than the following:

Quote: Wizard

I promised to participate in this thread if I saw some evidence collected under casino conditions.

That does not necessarily mean that "the only way to judge bias is by counting faces at actual casinos," and I think to take Wizard's remarks to reach that conclusion is way too much of a leap.

Here is the Wizard's post. You are correct that Wizard did not say that face counting is the only way to judge dice bias. I recalled incorrectly.

However, he did insist on "a large sampling of throws under casino conditions," which means that accurately counting rolls/faces at casinos is a proper method of judging bias, according to Wizard.

Quote: Jimbo

There have been a number of studies done utilizing more reliable scientific methods that I would assume Wizard and anyone else would agree are acceptable ways--even more acceptable than this study-- to judge bias in dice.

Please give more info on or links to those studies.

I know of two studies in controlled environments. Both studies counted rolls/faces.

Quote: Boz

Why didnt Aaron or anyone else start betting the Darkside and see if they pulled the dice? Would they have had to call Steve to see what to do. He has to be in on this as well.

I was gambling at the time. Even though I lost money, I still had fun. Not everything that I do is about biased dice, controlled shooting, and this forum.

I was doing huge stakes gambling and I lost. I bet much MUCH more on other shooters than myself. I did not suspect bad dice, I merely reported on what happened. I did jokingly talk about the Midwest dice to the box man, but neither one of us truly thought the brand of dice was to blame.

I also specifically pointed out that Midwest dice across the street were winning and made the conclusion that there was no association with the big wins or the big losses to the dice.

I also pointed out that the bet amounts on the wins across the street were smaller, and implied that the dollar value won or lost had no bearing on the chances of the dice being biased. I appreciate your comments about the Joker's Wild nevertheless; but please don't imply this escaped my attention!

I also pointed out that when I returned after visiting the ATM, the limit went up to $100 and that was too high for me.

Quote: petroglyph

I do believe though that stalking is a crime. Even internet stalking. It doesn't seem that Ahigh can post without being pounced on about his opinions

Got it.

You define "disagreeing with Ahigh" as "internet stalking."

Give me a f*&King break.

Quote: tupp

Just because some think that New Jersey craps rules are stringent, that doesn't mean that a problem doesn't exist. If anything, the existence of such rules reflect the potential of a problem.

Purple means green and green means purple.

Quote: Ahigh

... She talked about a story of a guy who had "special kind of shoes" who had come in and she had seen him lose a very large sum of money. I specifically described Harley when she said this, and she confirmed that it was _NOT_ our boy Harley she was talking about, but it sounded like it at first.

Ahigh, I don't know what you are thinking, if Harley or anybody else that was on your show didn't want to be known by the casinos, why in the world would you go out of your way to described anybody that you know that is a DI to a casino? Even if there was a real guy like "The Madprofessor" and I knew who he was, I would never talk to a casino about him, we don't even use a players handle on the boards when we are talking to anybody in a casino!!!!!
I've heard what I would call a horror story, when someone walked up to the table and ask Heavy how he was shooting! DI's do not rat others out to the casinos!  We don't want to get hassled when we are playing and we all respect the right of others to keep their identities private!!!!

First, Harley wears a mask in your videos and Ahigh Show because he requests privacy and you mention in your videos and even in previous posts that we should respect his privacy by not revealing who he is.  YET, you walk into a casino and describe who he is and even admit that on a public forum with specific details.
  Are you going to reveal everyone's screen name that shows up to Casino Royale from the Wizard's board?  Most players prefer to remain anonymous and don't appreciate other players talking to casinos about us.  We have a common courtesy not to go into casinos and mention other players.

Second, you keep using Harley's name on this thread even after you protested that he should be kept out of this thread and that you were tired of talking about Harley on this thread.  However, it seems you are the one mentioning his name most often on this thread.

Third, why are you putting this all on Harley and Koganinja as if they are the only 2 that believe in unbalanced dice:

a.  Little Joe Craps school, Dr. Z dice school, Jerry Patterson and Walt Diem all teach their dice students about biased dice.

b.  There are several dice schools that teach charting of the dice (Little Joe Craps, Dice Coach, Dr. Z, Steve Nelli Method, TrendSetter Craps, Jerry Patterson, Leonard Benson, Dr. Robert Antony Craps Pro 2000) and even Heavy in his last Las Vegas trip report posted about the importance of charting.

c.  In 2010, before Koganinja videos and your videos proving that unbalanced dice were being used, DiceSetter.com reported from survey results that there were over a 1,100 dice players that believed casinos were not using Fair Dice.

Harley and Koganimja are just messengers, but there are several thousand dice players that realize unbalanced dice are being used.

Now get this, again I will say that they never said the dice were loaded, like some fiction writers would want everybody to believe. What has been said, is that the casinos are now using cheap dice that are not balanced, just like you have seen by putting them on your balancer. In their quest to make as much profit as possible, the casinos are buying the cheapest dice they can.

Most dice are now being manufactured out of this country and what is the old saying, "You get what you pay for"!

I don't think that anybody on these threads has come out and said X, X, X casinos are all cheating by using these cheap dice, although they have said there is something that doesn't match up to probabilities when we are playing craps now days.
You yourself said there was no way that the casinos where using these cheap dice, but changed your mind when you took the time to track the tables and to look at them on your balancer!

If you want to post your photos all over the internet, that's your prerogative, but I'm sure that Harley wouldn't want you to carry around a photo of him or any other DI's that you have played craps with showing the casino photos of these players!!!
Remember your the one that asked him not to post on this thread, just like he asked you not to show his face when he was on your show! So I'm the one that is responding to what you did, when you described Harley to the casino!!!!

DI's do not want to the casinos to know who they are!

...

Is there any inconsistency here?

Quote: Ahigh

I believe that you have it wrong that I have alleged anything. I have not said anything about any casinos actually having biased dice!

And then you go on to say:

Quote: Ahigh

Furthermore, none of the casinos, even after specific questions about Midwest Brand versus Paulson branded, Tk, or Bud Jones, Bee, or any other brand has made anything other than casual conversation about what branded dice are known to be favorable to the house versus favorable to the casino.

Quote: Ahigh

But if you want to get to claims, I absolutely do in fact claim that the casinos don't care about anything about the fairness of the dice beyond what is legally required for them to care about by law.

And please explain this quote of yours from February 2nd: "I gave the Wynn a heads up that I planned to come and shoot the bones on a high limit table and that I ran a website and everything else, and there were plenty of suits watching as I rolled." Did you phone them, email them, send a courier, or use a carrier pigeon?

Ahigh you have added a possibile motive to your attacks on the casinos and the dice makers: you want to sell them your balancer.

Quote: Ahigh

And as far as allegations go, you're saying that I have allegations against the casinos, and I am unaware of what those allegations are. Your repeating over and over that I am making false allegations is getting a little repetitive.

Every time you mention a casino or brand of dice and question their fairness you are making a statement that can damage a company. It is reckless, because you do it with no regard for the truth. You have alleged a conspiracy as well and claimed that certain dice are inferior and hence have a bias and that casinos use those inferior dice with a bias and you have mentioned casinos and brands by name. And you fail to realize that you are not only causing harm to other companies and other brands, but you overlook that these companies may also be customers of your employer? You amaze me.

Regarding that this is a forum, and a chat room: that doesn't excuse damaging or libelous comments. The law says that clearly. Website owners are obligated to monitor and remove libelous comments when they become aware of them. At the least, a website with moderators should challenge comments that on the surface appear to cause damage to others.

by the way, you've done a lot of craps playing lately even after saying you were going to take a break because you lost that $1,000. I hope you're okay.

Quote: superrick

Quote: Ahigh

... She talked about a story of a guy who had "special kind of shoes" who had come in and she had seen him lose a very large sum of money. I specifically described Harley when she said this, and she confirmed that it was _NOT_ our boy Harley she was talking about, but it sounded like it at first.

Ahigh, I don't know what you are thinking, if Harley or anybody else that was on your show didn't want to be known by the casinos, why in the world would you go out of your way to described anybody that you know that is a DI to a casino? Even if there was a real guy like "The Madprofessor" and I knew who he was, I would never talk to a casino about him, we don't even use a players handle on the boards when we are talking to anybody in a casino!!!!!
I've heard what I would call a horror story, when someone walked up to the table and ask Heavy how he was shooting! DI's do not rat others out to the casinos!  We don't want to get hassled when we are playing and we all respect the right of others to keep their identities private!!!!

First, Harley wears a mask in your videos and Ahigh Show because he requests privacy and you mention in your videos and even in previous posts that we should respect his privacy by not revealing who he is.  YET, you walk into a casino and describe who he is and even admit that on a public forum with specific details.
  Are you going to reveal everyone's screen name that shows up to Casino Royale from the Wizard's board?  Most players prefer to remain anonymous and don't appreciate other players talking to casinos about us.  We have a common courtesy not to go into casinos and mention other players.

Second, you keep using Harley's name on this thread even after you protested that he should be kept out of this thread and that you were tired of talking about Harley on this thread.  However, it seems you are the one mentioning his name most often on this thread.

Third, why are you putting this all on Harley and Koganinja as if they are the only 2 that believe in unbalanced dice:

a.  Little Joe Craps school, Dr. Z dice school, Jerry Patterson and Walt Diem all teach their dice students about biased dice.

b.  There are several dice schools that teach charting of the dice (Little Joe Craps, Dice Coach, Dr. Z, Steve Nelli Method, TrendSetter Craps, Jerry Patterson, Leonard Benson, Dr. Robert Antony Craps Pro 2000) and even Heavy in his last Las Vegas trip report posted about the importance of charting.

c.  In 2010, before Koganinja videos and your videos proving that unbalanced dice were being used, DiceSetter.com reported from survey results that there were over a 1,100 dice players that believed casinos were not using Fair Dice.

Harley and Koganimja are just messengers, but there are several thousand dice players that realize unbalanced dice are being used.

Now get this, again I will say that they never said the dice were loaded, like some fiction writers would want everybody to believe. What has been said, is that the casinos are now using cheap dice that are not balanced, just like you have seen by putting them on your balancer. In their quest to make as much profit as possible, the casinos are buying the cheapest dice they can.

Most dice are now being manufactured out of this country and what is the old saying, "You get what you pay for"!

I don't think that anybody on these threads has come out and said X, X, X casinos are all cheating by using these cheap dice, although they have said there is something that doesn't match up to probabilities when we are playing craps now days.
You yourself said there was no way that the casinos where using these cheap dice, but changed your mind when you took the time to track the tables and to look at them on your balancer!

If you want to post your photos all over the internet, that's your prerogative, but I'm sure that Harley wouldn't want you to carry around a photo of him or any other DI's that you have played craps with showing the casino photos of these players!!!
Remember your the one that asked him not to post on this thread, just like he asked you not to show his face when he was on your show! So I'm the one that is responding to what you did, when you described Harley to the casino!!!!

DI's do not want to the casinos to know who they are!

...

You know, I described only feature of Harley using a singular adjective and it didn't match. I did not provide an elaborate description as my post may have implied. I would explain the exact words I used, but for fear of revealing anything about this particular unique feature please don't confuse "specifically" with "in great detail." I easily eliminated the possibility that she was talking about Harley and very quickly with a single question about the person she was describing with the special shoes by asking about something specific.

But anyway, I can see how you might infer from my post that I am drawing sketches what Harley looks like to every casino in town. But that's not what I'm doing.

Hearing Harley's voice is probably the easiest way to identify him if he's worried about it, and that goes for you too Rick.

FWIW, I think Vegas Dice controller is more underground than either of you as you both have appeared on you tube with you voice. But anyway, we could probably start up a whole thread on the fact that nobody cares about the identities of dice players as they don't fear dice controllers in the slightest.

Quote: AlanMendelson

...please explain this quote of yours from February 2nd: "I gave the Wynn a heads up that I planned to come and shoot the bones on a high limit table and that I ran a website and everything else, and there were plenty of suits watching as I rolled." Did you phone them, email them, send a courier, or use a carrier pigeon?

I talked to the boxman and a few dealers in person on a separate and previous visit at an empty table without even playing. I fully expected they simply dismissed everything that I talked to them about including my website, reference to videos on you tube, and anything else. In one ear and out the other ear just like is typical when talking to the boys.

Generally speaking, I do occasionally drop hints about my website of you tube videos. Not often really. But there has not been a whole lot of follow up from either dealers, boxmen, players, or anyone else. I mean in general, nobody leaves the casino and jumps on the internet except people who are already on this particular forum, or MAYBE the axis pro website.

Even then, there's way more actual play than people wanting to talk about play online. And for dealers and boxmen, it's a job. Why do they want to talk about it in their off time? In general, they don't!

Ahigh, you had over 8,000 views for that one video. So somebody is watching!

Quote: AlanMendelson

Every time you mention a casino or brand of dice and question their fairness you are making a statement that can damage a company. It is reckless, because you do it with no regard for the truth. You have alleged a conspiracy as well and claimed that certain dice are inferior and hence have a bias and that casinos use those inferior dice with a bias and you have mentioned casinos and brands by name. And you fail to realize that you are not only causing harm to other companies and other brands, but you overlook that these companies may also be customers of your employer? You amaze me.

Regarding that this is a forum, and a chat room: that doesn't excuse damaging or libelous comments. The law says that clearly. Website owners are obligated to monitor and remove libelous comments when they become aware of them. At the least, a website with moderators should challenge comments that on the surface appear to cause damage to others.

I really don't think anybody is being damaged by my comments. I do encourage dice manufacturers to make more efforts for symmetry. Aside from that, everything can adequately be described by randomness, and that's what I would assume any observations are: random deviations from what's expected .. no matter how unlikely they are.

Quote: AlanMendelson

by the way, you've done a lot of craps playing lately even after saying you were going to take a break because you lost that $1,000. I hope you're okay.

Yeah, you know what? I doubt you're truly concerned, but thanks for the comment nevertheless. And yes I am still gambling huge with money I don't technically have.

The last throw I made was on a $150 eight with a $5 hard eight for a win with a hard eight. I was rated at $150 average bet for an hour and fifteen minutes at the Mandalay Bay during that session to give you an indicator of my current action. I lost $100 on that session, but I lost four figures betting on other shooters and made up for almost all of it on my own shots. I wanted the rating to go to the pool, and the host just told me I have to be a much higher level of play to get a free comp to the pool. I haven't decided yet if I will continue to play at the Mandalay Bay as it seems really difficult for a local to get good comps there.

It seems like they want $300 bets or higher before they will take any notice at all.

Quote: Beethoven9th

Ahigh, you had over 8,000 views for that one video. So somebody is watching!

That video has been around for a while, so those views are spread out over a year's time. I think it's only about 150 views per week.

Quote: Ahigh

I really don't think anybody is being damaged by my comments.

It might be worthwhile if you reconsider this. You are not talking among your friends over your table at home or over a table at a local bar.

Quote: AlanMendelson

It might be worthwhile if you reconsider this. You are not talking among your friends over your table at home or over a table at a local bar.

No I have considered it.

Here is something that you should consider. It's possible that nobody is being damaged, and I am in fact preventing future damage by giving away ideas for how to make dice more symmetrical.

You can spin anything any way you want, but I will say it again, I don't think anybody is being damaged by my comments.

I also think that some people with open minds are even learning things that they didn't know. Like, for example, that there is no such thing as a 100% perfectly balanced die and also that the ridigity of the materials are different even though the density is the same. Bounce is dependent on coefficients of restitution and generally nobody ever talked about this facet which does in fact have an effect.

I've given solutions to addressing these problems, and nobody cares, just like nobody cares about dice being 100% balanced because none of them are and in fact they can never be 100% balanced.

There isn't even a test for balance in the manufacturing line to come up with what percent the dice are balanced because as far as I know they don't have any equipment that even works as well as my balance.

It's just that nobody cares.

But as far as damage, I am helping, not hurting, people with my comments. I am delivering real data with real basis and real work that I am doing on my own.

Not hurting anyone. And I am in fact completely open to being proven wrong, but nobody can tell me or prove to me that these dice are symmetrical or balanced because they aren't, and everyone should know that.

Instead we just keep talking about how it doesn't matter enough to make a difference.

And that might be true.

But it does have an effect. And when the house edge on the math is a big fat zero, it's the only thing that creates an edge either way. Yet another topic that so far has not truly been addressed by any of the math guys who want to ignore the effects of asymmetric outcomes on the resulting edges. They are there folks!

Conclusion remains: nobody cares!

Quote: Ahigh

I don't think anybody is being damaged by my comments.

In the context of this discussion, it does not matter what you think. That depends on what the law says and how a judge or jury views the facts.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Every time you mention a casino or brand of dice and question their fairness you are making a statement that can damage a company. It is reckless, because you do it with no regard for the truth. You have alleged a conspiracy as well and claimed that certain dice are inferior and hence have a bias and that casinos use those inferior dice with a bias and you have mentioned casinos and brands by name. And you fail to realize that you are not only causing harm to other companies and other brands, but you overlook that these companies may also be customers of your employer? You amaze me.

Look: if ANY of the dice manufacturers are concerned about the quality level of their dice above and beyond the law, they can come on here and talk about it.

I speak equally towards all of them that there are steps that can be made to make the dice more fair.

The only dice that have been singled out as being inferior at all are the dice that are sold at a far lesser price and are known to be of lower quality, and they are the dice being offered on Alibaba.com.

Any casino that uses these dice to save money has got to understand that's a great risk. I would like to think that none are, but any casino using unapproved dice, for which I know for a fact that none are, should be scared, because they could easily be identified.

Somebody is using those Alibaba dice though. You know that, right?

They sell a lot more of these dice than I can account for going off on E-bay and novelty stores.

Where they are going, though, I have no proof and no idea of anything. But somebody should be tracking where these things are going as soon as they leave on the boat from China.

Dude, you really need the X-Files to come back on TV for this one.

Minimum order 10,000 pieces! Where do these go?!

http://www.alibaba.com/product-gs/313041391/Plastic_casino_dice.html

And with and without logo... Who do they puts logos on here for I wonder?

Quote: Ahigh

No I have considered it.

Here is something that you should consider. It's possible that nobody is being damaged,

I really really hate to agree with Ahigh on anything,
but its laughable to think any casino is being damaged
by this talk on a forum. 99.999% of craps players read
nothing about the game, let alone gambling forums.
Casino's have real problems to deal with, whats said
here isn't one of them.

We could have saved 3 months of conversation on this topic. You say it's "nobody cares", but the fact remains that the real answer is "it doesn't exist". Why does it not exist? Because NOBODY, including yourself has been able to prove that it does.

Months and months of back and forth. You probably have the most posts on the forum during this time. And still, there is nothing more gained than "nobody cares".

I know you think it has no effect, but I'm telling you right now, all the hours you are spending on this site, playing craps, gathering statistics, doing shows, etc, etc, will effect your personal life. You are kidding yourself if you don't think so. It's no difference than the guys who play softball too much, bowl too much, go to the bar too much, work too much and anything else that is done too much and not enough time focused at home.

As the kids say these day, you need to check yourself before you wreck yourself. And I'm being very serious.

ZCore13

I agree no one is being damaged, but I also disagree with the premise that the dice are biased because NO ONE is being damaged, including the players.

Quote: EvenBob

I really really hate to agree with Ahigh on anything

LOL

You're forgetting though that Ahigh is somewhat famous in Vegas. The casinos could be watching his YouTube videos and TV show.

Quote: Zcore13

As the kids say these day, you need to check yourself before you wreck yourself. And I'm being very serious.

ZCore13

This doesn't apply to Ahigh, he has a magical personal
life, just ask him. Famous last words..

Quote: Zcore13

Why does it not exist? Because NOBODY, including yourself has been able to prove that it does.

Very informative of your belief system.

So the world was flat until it was proven otherwise, huh?

Nice view on your model of reality.

I don't believe that lack of proof implies lack of existence of anything myself. But interesting to see that you do.

Quote: EvenBob

I really really hate to agree with Ahigh on anything,
but its laughable to think any casino is being damaged
by this talk on a forum. 99.999% of craps players read
nothing about the game, let alone gambling forums.
Casino's have real problems to deal with, whats said
here isn't one of them.

Boy,.. EvenBob did you hit this on the head, 99.999% of craps players read
nothing about the game, let alone gambling forums. They walk into a casino without knowing what they are doing, you don't see hundreds of thousands of players on these forums!

Most guys are playing craps for the fun of it, and I want to thank all of those players that do, without them we wouldn't have a game of craps to play. Just look at how many posters you have on these board on the game of craps, not to many is there!

It's time to take a step back and look at what any forum is. It's a place where like minded people can exchange views on what we are doing and were other opposing views can be shared.

We do know that casinos do read these boards, and threads like this have been going on for years. Just think of the ratifications of what would happen if a casino did decide to take something like this to court. There would be so much bad press that they would come out the losers, if someone that was being sued by the casino could prove that the dice are not even balanced. I think that Ahigh has all ready done that! With that said we also know that Nevada has no rules when it comes to specifications of dice like other states do. When that comes to light they may very well lose players to other states that have rules in place to somewhat protect the players that play craps!

While Alan M doesn't see anything wrong with how Nevada lack of rules pertaining to the game of craps other players may have major problems with the lack of rules!

This thread has turned into a pissing match between Alan M and Ahigh and the same thing goes for any of Ahighs posts. It's just like he said she said. Ahigh stated at the beginning of this thread that he didn't believe there was anything wrong with the dice, but he would try to get to the bottom of it, then he found out that the dice were not balanced and since then he has been digging deeper into the problem. Maybe nothing will ever come of this, but on the other hand it does and the casinos do once again start buying higher quality dice, Alan might have to thank anybody that questioned the dice that the casinos are now using!

Most players just think that they are having bad luck when they are at the tables when they are seeing things that are way out of the norm for the variance when they are playing craps, nobody ever tracks the tables they are playing on, if you ask a dealer what rolled three rolls ago they couldn't tell you nor could anybody else on the table.

So here is a question to you Alan, if you happened to spend a full week in Vegas or any other gambling spot, and you tracked the tables all week what conclusion would you come to if you were seeing things that didn't add up, like way to many craps numbers or sevens? Would you start paying attention to what was happening on the tables every time you played or would you just stick your head in the sand and go on losing?

Is it to much to ask that Nevada has rules in place like NJ does, that is there to protect the players?

Quote: Jimbo

There have been a number of studies done utilizing more reliable scientific methods that I would assume Wizard and anyone else would agree are acceptable ways--even more acceptable than this study-- to judge bias in dice.

Quote: tupp

Please give more info on or links to those studies.

It seems natural to me--considering what is at stake--this question of biased dice has been studied numerous times.

One would assume over the years that many people would have looked into the question of biased dice and what is necessary or required in the manufacturer of dice to insure unbiased dice. Also what is required in casino handling of dice to insure that biased dice cannot be introduced into the game and to insure that biased dice--if it even remotely exist--cannot be exploited.

Certainly, and most likely, the casino industry has looked into this, since their business depends on it and on insuring that the public believes a dice game is fairly presented. Also regulatory agencies, since it is in their interest that the public is protected. (Whether the public perceives that the government is protecting them by regulating casinos or if this is even a proper role for government is another question.) Thirdly, I suspect dice manufacturers have been part of the process and dialogue over the years to insure that their dice are fair and unbiased.

I do not have knowledge as to what extent the casino industry and/or regulatory agencies and/or dice manufacturers have conducted exhaustive testing in establishing the criteria and/or tolerances for acceptable casino dice which are spelled out in some regulations. I would venture to guess that some past studies or scientific data were relied upon in drafting state regulations regarding dice, but without looking into this, I don't know. It is possible to study the legislative process in some of these states to see exactly what was discussed and why certain provisions were adopted about dice tolerances. We may discover if studies or tests were relied upon, and if so, which ones.

In 1849, the Swiss astronomer, Rudolf Wolf counted the results of 100,000 tosses of a single die, to conclude dice were ill-made and biased. (There was a study done in 1979 which calculated the physical shape of Wolf's dice.) Richard Epstein in his book, The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic examined Wolf's data using the chi-squared test. He obtained a value of 748.5. Epstein also determined that using more perfect or modern-day casino dice, rolled 100,000 times, would result less than 1% of the time in a value of chi-squared greater than 15.1. He concluded that Wolf's die "being unbiased is vanishing small."

In 1894, Walter F.R. Weldon rolled a set of 12 dice 26,306 times. He collected the data in part, "to judge whether the differences between a series of group frequencies and a theoretical law, taken as a whole, were or were not more than might be attributed to the chance fluctuations of random sampling." This study has been referenced in several papers and books about dice over the years. Weldon's data was also used by Karl Pearson in his work on chi-squared distribution (and developing the Pearson chi-squared test).

Pearson--and every researcher who has looked at Weldon's data since the data was first presented--has concluded the dice showed a bias that is attributed to the poor construction of the dice such as those manufactured in the 19th century. It's been stated that most inexpensive dice, including dice of the 19th century, have hollowed-out pips, so that the face with six pips is lighter than its opposing face which has only one pip. We all know this is not how casino dice is manufactured today.

A University of Chicago researcher, Zacariah Labby, developed an apparatus which could be utilized to repeat Weldon's experiment. This is explained in great detail in a paper found at: http://galton.uchicago.edu/about/docs/labby09dice.pdf and published in 2009. This automatic process of rolling the dice consists of a physical box that rolls the dice, electronics that control the timing of the dice-rolling, a webcam that captures an image of the dice, and a laptop that coordinates the processes and analyzes the images. This apparatus could repeat Weldon's data of 315,672 die faces (12 dice together thrown 26,306 times) in a matter of days.

You can find many things on YouTube and, sure enough, there is even a video of this apparatus at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=95EErdouO2w

From what I can determine, Labby used inexpensive store-bought white plastic dice with hollowed-out pips and a drop of black paint inside each pip. The focus of Labby's work was to study Weldon's data--not to determine whether bias exist today with casino dice. Considering the effectiveness of the Labby apparatus for "throwing" the dice, I would think his device could be used for further study of casino dice--assuming such a study is even warranted (which I maintain is not warranted).

Again, researchers over the years who have studied the Wolf data and the Weldon data state that the dice used by them (100 to 150 years ago) is not to today's tolerances and manufacturing processes and, therefore, cannot be relied upon. Richard Epstein (in his book cited above) specifically dismisses Weldon's data based on the conclusion the dice was of poor quality. Epstein states that dice employed by casinos today are "generally machined to tolerances of 1/2000 inch, are of hard homogeneous material, and are rolled only a few hundred times on a soft green felt surface before being retired. Thus, the probability of finding an unintentionally biased die--and determining wherein lies the bias--in a casino is quite small." (end of quote)

You need only go to Wikipedia for further information on Wolf, Weldon, and Pearson.

Incidentally, I believe Weldon's data--though dismissed as not representative of today's casino dice--is still used for the purpose of teaching Pearson's chi-squared goodness-of-fit test.

Frederick Mosteller is considered one of the most eminent statisticians of the 20th century and he founded the department of statistics at Harvard. (One of his graduate students was Persi Diaconis.) Mosteller was presented with an opportunity to test the statistical model against the actual behavior of real dice tossed by a person. A man named Willard H. Longcor, who had an obsession with throwing dice, came to Mosteller with an offer to record the results of millions of tosses. Some time later, Mosteller received a large crate of manila envelopes. Each envelope contained the results of 20,000 tosses with a single die and a written summary showing how many runs of different kinds had occurred. Altogether, Longcor had tested 219 dice of four different brands for a total of 4,380,000 throws! (That is not a typo.)

Mosteller checked the runs and compared the results with theory. He concluded that Longcor was very accurate. The results even highlighted some errors in the then-standard theory of the distribution of runs. Mosteller observed, "the main formulas were correct, but the endpoints of the formulas were not quite right," and he found "some aberrant results that suggest that things a little unusual happen more often than the classical theory would suggest."

Interestingly, the data which had been collected by Longcor was the result of using both casino dice from Las Vegas and ordinary, store-bought dice. It was therefore possible to compare their performance not only with theory but also with each other and with a computer that simulated dice tossing.

As it turned out, in this study, the computer proved to have a flawed random-number generator, whereas the Las Vegas dice were very close to perfect in comparison with theory. The results of the Mosteller study (conducted with the help of several additional researchers) was published in 1971 in the Psychometrika journal under the title, "Bias runs in dice throwing and recording: A few million throws." A link to the index is: http://www.psychometrika.org/PDFs/PMjIndex_36_Author.pdf

I found a reference regarding a presentation at a conference in 2001 concerning extensive experimental investigation of dice rolls using an automatic mechanism which repeatedly rolls a die, photographs it, counts the face and records the outcome. One roll of the dice can be done every 2.4 seconds. In a study involving 640,934 rolls, using casino quality dice, there was no evidence of bias. see http://dicephysics.info/0107.htm

I am sure that if I took additional time, I would find references to other studies. Or someone else can. A good place to start would be to Google some of the names of people that I have referred to.

A further question has been answered by Richard Epstein concerning the number of throws of a die necessary to ascertain the existence of a bias--assuming further that the bias is not altered with time, meaning the rolls of the die comprise a stationary statistic. Using a formula given by Bernoulli's rule of the law of large numbers, Epstein concludes that 50,000 throws of a suspected die are sufficient to determine p to an accuracy of 0.01 with a confidence of 0.96. Epstein admits that Bernoulli's rule yields a value that is extremely conservative and a better estimate of the requisite number of throws to ascertain bias may be provided by the Laplace-Gauss theorem, which would indicate only 9,604 throws would be needed. Don't ask me to go through all the math.

One final thought should be noted from reading several of the studies and from the math analysis associated with random outcomes. That is this: unbiased dice, thrown randomly, may appear to be more biased than actual biased dice, due to roll results that a person may perceive to be inconsistent with random probability, but yet is within the rules of probability. (There is an interesting test of this with the tossing of a coin, but that is the subject for a different thread.)

You can perhaps now understand, a little more acutely, why I have been dismissive of this study as proposed by Ahigh and why I further believe biased dice do not exist in today's casinos. And, because the way the dice are handled (requiring a shooter to select two die from a choice of 5 or 6 die and by retiring and canceling the dice after 8 or so hours), it is virtually impossible for either the player or the casino to exploit what may be perceived as bias.

If we were TRULY interested in only the fairest play, the dice outcomes would be tracked every roll on every table in the state of Nevada and uploaded and compiled and made public. This same information could also be used to protect the casinos from unfair dice being used by the players, as well as to document the longest rolls achieved.

I don't personally believe that the longest craps roll in history has been documented. It was probably done on a $3 table with no other action and the player couldn't hit his point for a long time!

But it is the wild west, and that's how it is. And many non-computer-literate players are those that dominate the game.

The craps players on this forum are but a fraction of one percent of the $400 million being earned every year from the game of craps.

I know my losses are a tiny sliver in the grand scheme of things. And I don't expect any winnings will ever make a dent in the big picture either.

Jimbo, I didn't read your post until after I posted, but I wanted to applaud you on that contribution! Wow. I have a lot to follow up on from that. Thanks!!!

Today at Mandalay Bay, I got a quiz in the middle of my game from the boxman. This was very unusual. Basically his question was in the form of a story. He started off by saying,

boxman: "Aaron you're a numbers guy aren't you?"
me: "Yeah, sure."
stick man: pulls dice to the center
boxman: "the other day we had a fellow in here and one of the dice went up into the rail. He was superstitious and he wanted a new pair of dice. So the stickman took all the dice and put them in the bowl and dumped the bowl in front of the player .. all five dice in front of the player."
me: "Alright yeah."
boxman "So I'm not that good with math, but I wanted to know if I figured out what were the chances that the guy got the exact same two dice."
me: "Yeah? That's a classical type of math problem for combinatorial mathematics, and the answer is expressed mathematically as 5 choose 2."
boxman: "Alright."
me: "So the answer is 2 out of 5 for the first dice and 1 out of 4 for the second die."
boxman: "Right, so you have 0.40 for the first one"
me: "And 0.25 for the second one and multiply them together to get 0.10."

The boxman and I agreed that the chances were about 1 in 10. The boxman was really happy with this answer because I think someone else disagreed with him.

But from this conversation, and everyone that's good in math should know that there are 10 possible pairs of dice that can be selected from a stick of 5 dice. With 5 independent dice biases and 10 possible ways to pick two of them, there are up to ten different combined and possible biased dice pairs available in theory that have to be weighted equally to look at the overall bias of the stick.

The whole experiment starts with the assumption that it would be the similarities of casino dice that are possible to pin down as not being random rather than the differences. I can measure imbalance between independent dice in a stick very easily, and I don't think this is going to have any long term effects in this study.

It will counter-balance itself.

But there is still a curiosity to see the outcomes themselves in terms of the face counts in actual casinos as an independent study.

But I don't want to do the work, and I don't know anybody that does.

But it's still of interest and I do think it's relevant to consider it myself if it weren't for the huge amount of work necessary to make it happen.

Quote: Ahigh

If we were TRULY interested in only the fairest play, the dice outcomes would be tracked every roll on every table in the state of Nevada and uploaded and compiled and made public..

In Germany, there are many casinos that upload
the results of their roulette tables every day and
have an archive going back years. But Germany
is the only country I'm aware of that does this. The
US keeps no records of any table game as far as
I know.

Jimbo, appreciate the research you have done but you can throw a lot of those dice studies in the garbage as they do not consider the physics of a Craps Game. Especially the Weldon machine on YouTube and studies that drop the dice straight down 10 inches or so like Keyser's device.

I learned about unbalanced dice in 1 of those dice schools Superrick listed. To look at the pure math of craps without considering the physics is like asking Mike Tyson to fight Evander Holyfield with only one leg, one arm plus a Silence of the Lambs Hannibal Lecter style restraint mask.

Simple physics (and Newton's 3rd law) suggest if an unbalanced object is thrust forward it will react differently if it is allowed to come to a natural rest, even if slightly redirected by the rubber pyramids, instead of dropping straight down only a few inches. If you take an unbalanced die and drop it straight down 10 inches you will get far different average results consistently over 10,000 rolls compared to the same unbalanced die tossed forward 10 feet.

Dropping a die straight down 10 inches will allow more randomness, whereas the unimpeded forward motion of an unbalanced object will have the effects of centrifugal force and gravity play a bigger factor.

Thank you Jimbo for a very informative post and for doing all of that work. Thank you, again.

Brilliant Jimbo. Nicely done.

ZCore13

Quote: Bohemian

....you can throw a lot of those dice studies in the garbage as they do not consider the physics of a Craps Game.....I learned about unbalanced dice in 1 of those dice schools Superrick listed.

Hmmm...Let me think...

On the one hand, we have Little Joe Craps school (or, alternately, Dr. Z dice school, or the Dice Coach, or Jerry Patterson, or you name it) selling their products and services...

and on the other hand we have Frederick Mosteller, who is considered one of the most eminent statisticians of the 20th century, together with a team of researchers at Harvard, utilizing the results of 4,380,000 actual throws of dice (comparing the results, as well, with a computer that simulated dice tossing)...

and on the same hand with Mosteller, we also have Richard Epstein, a brilliant game theorist with a doctorate in physics, who wrote the very highly-regarded The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic and who has served as a consultant to public and private gambling casinos in Greece and in Macao, and who has testified on technical aspects of gambling in several court cases....

According to you, Bohemian, we are to accept Little Joe Craps school and/or the other "dice schools" and we are to reject Mosteller and Epstein!?

This certainly confirms there will always be those who believe what they want to believe regardless of in-depth study and research, sound analysis, reasoning, and common sense to the contrary.

There will be those who are convinced casinos are not using fair dice simply because DiceSetter.com reports the survey results of over 1,100 dice players who believe that is so. Or like a friend of mine who is absolutely convinced that when the high roller comes to the table, the crew changes out the dice to put in the set that will be opposite his play. Or those who believe the crew changes out the dice and brings in the "cold" dice when the table is dumping.

There will be those who think multi-million and multi-billion dollar operations such as today's casinos are utilizing cheap dice from overseas that are not balanced and the casinos, in their quest to make as much profit as possible, are buying the cheapest dice they can. (Quoting you Superrick--you actually believe this??)

There will be those who think the only way to determine biased dice is if we record die faces in relative limited numbers from real-world casino activity in an unscientific method--without regard to such factors (to name a few) as different tables, different manufacturers, different dice that are selected by the shooter, dice that are retired and canceled regularly after only a few hundred rolls, stacks of chips which interfere with the throws, etc.

And there will be those who believe unbalanced dice or biased dice are in use simply because a dice or craps school said it.

Quote: Bohemian

Caesar's is NOW using some of the worst reported biased dice

Bohemian, I am still hoping you will respond to my earlier questions which I have put to you a couple of times--

Where is this reported that Caesar's is now using some of the worst biased dice? Is this still on-going? Is this common knowledge? "Worst" in what respect? If this claim is anecdotal, then why is this reliable and trustworthy?

I should add--is this something you learned at your "dice school" and is this your authority?

Your silence in not responding would indicate there is no proof or foundation to make such a statement, and if so, you should acknowledge this and retract this.

You are not the only member who has done this--make an outrageous claim without any support or source or authority to back it up. But, of course, this is a "chat" room nevertheless.

Jimbo, my authority is my experience in real time, not some computer lab with 1978 data or older.

If you discovered gold, would you get on a public forum and reveal the coordinates? I already tossed you a few nuggets with rolls from the D downtown and mentioned another arena such as Caesar's. Now all you have to do is chart and verify for yourself. Don't take my word or anybody's else word.

Or why don't you reserve a table several days in advance at a Las Vegas casino. Then chart the dice on that high roller reserved table and chart the non-reserved $10 table next to it at the same time. Then mail that data to Frederick Mosteller at Harvard.

Ho ho, "charting," eh?

How Patrickian.

Advanced charting

http://youtu.be/MyZwDcLGknU?t=15s

oh that's sharting.. nevermind.

Just read (on another forum) that somebody got banned from shooting at South Point.

Tell more please: forum, what happened??

hm.. Ahigh's name is red.

he got a vacation from this forum.
anyone know why? and for how long?

Quote: 100xOdds

hm.. Ahigh's name is red.

he got a vacation from this forum.
anyone know why? and for how long?

The Suspension List can always be referred to in cases such as this, with links to the offending post(s):

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info/rules/5288-suspension-list/#post71165

I will say that the first occurrence is mislinked, it's a quote of what he said.

Quote: Bohemian

I learned about unbalanced dice in 1 of those dice schools Superrick listed.

I did not know. This is a very serious problem.
I am unbalanced, lonely and depressed.
The Boston Bombers were unbalanced, lonely and depressed.
This is a terrible situation though perhaps I should now describe it as a Silver Sevens Situation, given Terribles recent name changce.

Let me start by saying the initial focus will be on the "unbalanced" state.
I agree the die's forward motion is critical, no balance being physically relevant unless it relates to some motion the die is likely to undergo in continued play. If someone has already noticed that the die is depressed or lonely and has retired the die from play on a live game then there is no need for further inquiry. If someone is going to drop it vertically there is no need to inquire as to bias because such a throw will never be accepted at a dice game.

So tell me. For how long is a die "unbalanced" during play and can this state of unbalance be determined by crew/players and exploited by them for the benefit of the house/public? It would seem to be that the retirement of dice from a casino is so soon that no such state of being unbalanced could long endure in the poor suffering die.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Tell more please: forum, what happened??

Goodshooter.com

It wont be his shooing that brings him down, it will be his Arrogance. This is a small circle. And once you are on their radar, there is no coming off.. He should take a few months off..

There are too many posts for this thread to go through, but I'm going to chime in and maybe it won't get lost in the vacuum.

I love the scientific method. I think its a great way to standardize research and come up with a systematic approach to researching issues. However, I also believe that all approaches need peer review. It's easy to get lost in the details and miss the forest for the trees and vice versa.

Here's the issue of tracking bias when it comes to craps. First of all, at the end of a shift, I believe casino's swap out and retire dice. That means a new set of dice are put in action. So any bias resulting from a retired pair have no baring on the new set put in action. You many make a wild assumption that the entire batch of dice that a casino receives are loaded or fixed, but this would be really rare. Ocean's 11 and 12 style, if you know what I mean.

Second, you just won't have enough iterations over the life of one set of dice in action to make a statistical significance. Every roll of the dice is like a new hand of blackjack. The odds keep changing. Before everyone here goes nuts on this comment, let me clarify. I don't mean the probabilities of the outcomes. I'm referring to different shooters, different throwing mechanics, wear and tear on the dice etc.

If we are really going to give this bias dice concept a chance, we probably have to equate this to loaded dice, where the distribution manifests itself in such a way that it is immediately statistically significant. For example, a pair of dice that gives you hard eight multiple times in a row for multiple shooters beyond a norm. Or loaded dice that always give you 7s. You get a choice to pick 2 out of 5 dice when you roll. How can you even begin to say that 1 or all are loaded/bias?

So testing this in a real environment, seems a bit out there because you can't control your variables. One of the main premises for scientific testing is being able to control as many external variables as possible. In craps, we're talking about angle, momentum, speed, rotation, etc. As I've said on previous forums, the only way to truly isolate whether the original premise of dice setting can hold any real meaning is building a robotic setup where the iterations are consistent and the variables controlled.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

So testing this in a real environment, seems a bit out there because you can't control your variables.

Ah, but you see, that was my whole point in contributing. For those that claim that there not only is bias but that they can also detect it, they don't get the benefits of scientific equipment and variable control. The way I participated in this admittedly flawed experiement is exactly the way the claimants must conduct theirs. As such, all the scientific stuff everyone clamors for to make this viable is expressly forbidden. And, as we've seen by all the comments, I think the argument that there exists biased dice detectors has been disproven.

I suppose that makes this experiment a success by way of failure.

Has this website been mentioned? http://dicephysics.info/ It has some interesting articles.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

Here's the issue of tracking bias when it comes to craps. First of all, at the end of a shift, I believe casino's swap out and retire dice. That means a new set of dice are put in action.

No doubt that dice are sometimes changed out more often than that, especially if pit management notices damage/wear during a shift.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

So any bias resulting from a retired pair have no baring on the new set put in action.

Probably true, unless one pair in a stick was pressed really hard against the adjacent pair, and one of the pairs replaced the other on the table.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

You many make a wild assumption that the entire batch of dice that a casino receives are loaded or fixed, but this would be really rare.

Actually, there are two assumptions related to this statement: that an entire batch of dice would share a bias; and that an entire batch of dice doesn't have a bias.

We don't know one way or the other -- it hasn't been tested.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

Ocean's 11 and 12 style, if you know what I mean.

Don't know what is meant.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

Second, you just won't have enough iterations over the life of one set of dice in action to make a statistical significance. Every roll of the dice is like a new hand of blackjack. The odds keep changing. Before everyone here goes nuts on this comment, let me clarify. I don't mean the probabilities of the outcomes. I'm referring to different shooters, different throwing mechanics, wear and tear on the dice etc.

Perhaps this paragraph assumes a couple of notions: (1) that, for the statistics to be significant, every variable has to be controlled; and (2) that, for the statistics to be significant, every die has to be thoroughly tested throughout its life.

Such assumed controls could be very helpful, but they are not necessary in finding statistical trends. Consider medical trials and studies on large groups of people. There are zillions of uncontrolled variables within each individual's life, yet by controlling or filtering just a few variables, significant trends can be discerned in large samples.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

You get a choice to pick 2 out of 5 dice when you roll. How can you even begin to say that 1 or all are loaded/bias?

By looking for trends in thousands of samples.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

So testing this in a real environment, seems a bit out there because you can't control your variables. One of the main premises for scientific testing is being able to control as many external variables as possible.

Yes. Generally, the more variables that can be controlled, the better. However, valuable medical studies/trials are continually conducted, even though there are zillions of variables that cannot be controlled.

Such is the basis for the entire discipline of statistics.

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

In craps, we're talking about angle, momentum, speed, rotation, etc. As I've said on previous forums, the only way to truly isolate whether the original premise of dice setting can hold any real meaning is building a robotic setup where the iterations are consistent and the variables controlled.

Actually, in trying to find a bias in dice, random throws are better. A controlled throw could introduce biased results.

So, controlled angle, momentum, speed, rotation, etc. is not needed nor desirable