tupp
tupp
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
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April 24th, 2013 at 12:19:05 PM permalink
Quote: nezbit

one thing you never ever do and i have seen people do "NEVER PULL YOUR DP LINE BACK DOWN AFTER POINT IS ESTABLISHED"


Never heard that one before. Are you sure?

;-)
nezbit
nezbit
Joined: Apr 1, 2013
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April 24th, 2013 at 12:21:34 PM permalink
Quote: tupp

Never heard that one before. Are you sure?

;-)




dude i have seen it with my eyes just before face palming...
Jimbo
Jimbo
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
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April 24th, 2013 at 1:16:15 PM permalink
Quote: nezbit

one thing you never ever do and i have seen people do "NEVER PULL YOUR DP LINE BACK DOWN AFTER POINT IS ESTABLISHED" I have seen people pull line back when a 6/8 hits. This is never correct as you always have a better chance of rolling a 7.

I, too, have seen players instruct the dealer to take "no action" with their Don't Come bet (meaning don't book the bet) if either the 6 or 8 is rolled.

It is more than simply saying this is never correct due to having a better chance of rolling a 7. You are actually giving up 10.45% to the house.

With a bet on the don't pass (or don't come) and either the 6 or 8 is rolled, the player edge is 9.09%. When the player elects to take "no action," he is effect trading that bet where he has the edge of 9.09% for a bet on the don't come which has a house edge of 1.36%.

So the cost to the player in making this decision is 10.45%.
gts4ever
gts4ever
Joined: Apr 2, 2013
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April 24th, 2013 at 1:53:21 PM permalink
Any of you Economics guys? I tend to evaluate bets in terms of utils as opposed to the HE. The edge is the biggest single factor, but I automatically weigh the price of a bet vs all returns I get from it (possible winnings, fun, ease, whatever).

From that standpoint, The Field player could be facing less of an edge than a 00 roulette player, more of an edge than the pass line bettor next to him, and have the highest (or lowest) expected utils out of all of them.
nycgags
nycgags
Joined: Feb 14, 2017
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February 14th, 2017 at 8:42:33 AM permalink
How about Field Bet to replace an Any Craps bet? Odds are much better, 2x two, 3x twelve, plus a bonus on Yo along with 4, 9, and 10 paying off as well.

So Field could be a pass line hedge with benefits.
DeMango
DeMango
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February 14th, 2017 at 6:05:00 PM permalink
Quote: nycgags

How about Field Bet to replace an Any Craps bet? Odds are much better, 2x two, 3x twelve, plus a bonus on Yo along with 4, 9, and 10 paying off as well.

So Field could be a pass line hedge with benefits.



You spend $1 for every $7 worth of line bet for maximum hedging. Your $5 field bet will not cover a $35 line bet, not even close.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
nycgags
nycgags
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February 15th, 2017 at 5:37:54 AM permalink
Is a $5 bet with 11.11% house edge better for you than a $13 bet with 2.78% house edge?

Here is the EV for each bet:

Summary

EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $5 AC w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.3
EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $13 FB w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.6


Roll . . D1 D2 . 35+5 35+13
2 . . . . 1 1 . . 0 . . -3
3 . . . . 2 1 . . 0 . . -22
4 . . . . 3 1 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 4 1 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 5 1 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 6 1 . . 30 . . 22
3 . . . . 1 2 . . 0 . . -22
4 . . . . 2 2 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 3 2 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 4 2 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 5 2 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 6 2 . . -5 . . -13
4 . . . . 1 3 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 2 3 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 3 3 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 4 3 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 5 3 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 6 3 . . -5 . . 13
5 . . . . 1 4 . . -5 . . -13
6 . . . . 2 4 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 3 4 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 4 4 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 5 4 . . -5 . . 13
10 . . . . 6 4 . . -5 . . 13
6 . . . . 1 5 . . -5 . . -13
7 . . . . 2 5 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 3 5 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 4 5 . . -5 . . 13
10 . . . . 5 5 . . -5 . . 13
11 . . . . 6 5 . . 30 . . 48
7 . . . . 1 6 . . 30 . . 22
8 . . . . 2 6 . . -5 . . -13
9 . . . . 3 6 . . -5 . . 13
10 . . . . 4 6 . . -5 . . 13
11 . . . . 5 6 . . 30 . . 48
12 . . . . 6 6 . . 0 . . 1

. . . . . . . . . 3.3 . . 3.6


PLEASE check my math, I have made mistakes in the past.
nycgags
nycgags
Joined: Feb 14, 2017
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February 15th, 2017 at 5:48:23 AM permalink
I should note ONLY to be used at casinos with either triple 2 or 12, this should be a given...

Since you explicitly called out a $5 Field Bet (FB) (instead of the $13 I used above) here is the EV comparison between a $5 AC and a $5 FB in conjunction with a $35 Pass Line bet:

EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $5 AC w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.3
EV for COME OUT ROLL ONLY $13 FB w/ $35 pass line bet: +3.75

It's actually better than a $13 FB, go figure!


Roll . . D1 D2 . 35+5 35+5 FB
2 . . . . 1 1 . . 0 . . -25
3 . . . . 2 1 . . 0 . . -30
4 . . . . 3 1 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 4 1 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 5 1 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 6 1 . . 30 . . 30
3 . . . . 1 2 . . 0 . . -30
4 . . . . 2 2 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 3 2 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 4 2 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 5 2 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 6 2 . . -5 . . -5
4 . . . . 1 3 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 2 3 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 3 3 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 4 3 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 5 3 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 6 3 . . -5 . . 5
5 . . . . 1 4 . . -5 . . -5
6 . . . . 2 4 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 3 4 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 4 4 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 5 4 . . -5 . . 5
10 . . . . 6 4 . . -5 . . 5
6 . . . . 1 5 . . -5 . . -5
7 . . . . 2 5 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 3 5 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 4 5 . . -5 . . 5
10 . . . . 5 5 . . -5 . . 5
11 . . . . 6 5 . . 30 . . 40
7 . . . . 1 6 . . 30 . . 30
8 . . . . 2 6 . . -5 . . -5
9 . . . . 3 6 . . -5 . . 5
10 . . . . 4 6 . . -5 . . 5
11 . . . . 5 6 . . 30 . . 40
12 . . . . 6 6 . . 0 . . -20

. . . . . . . . . 3.3 . . 3.75
nycgags
nycgags
Joined: Feb 14, 2017
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February 15th, 2017 at 5:54:34 AM permalink
I guess if I were to sum up my posts comparing Any Craps and Field Bet:

Any Craps is a bad bet to make ever, it appears as a hedge, but in reality it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. You are better off letting your passline bet stand on it's own or if you want more "action" couple it with a Field Bet.
nycgags
nycgags
Joined: Feb 14, 2017
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February 15th, 2017 at 5:59:23 AM permalink
Just to finish off this discussion, the EV of JUST a $35 Pass Line bet with no other gimmicky bets =+3.9


Roll . . D1 D2 . 35 PL
2 . . . . 1 1 . . -35
3 . . . . 2 1 . . -35
4 . . . . 3 1 . . 0
5 . . . . 4 1 . . 0
6 . . . . 5 1 . . 0
7 . . . . 6 1 . . 35
3 . . . . 1 2 . . -35
4 . . . . 2 2 . . 0
5 . . . . 3 2 . . 0
6 . . . . 4 2 . . 0
7 . . . . 5 2 . . 35
8 . . . . 6 2 . . 0
4 . . . . 1 3 . . 0
5 . . . . 2 3 . . 0
6 . . . . 3 3 . . 0
7 . . . . 4 3 . . 35
8 . . . . 5 3 . . 0
9 . . . . 6 3 . . 0
5 . . . . 1 4 . . 0
6 . . . . 2 4 . . 0
7 . . . . 3 4 . . 35
8 . . . . 4 4 . . 0
9 . . . . 5 4 . . 0
10 . . . . 6 4 . . 0
6 . . . . 1 5 . . 0
7 . . . . 2 5 . . 35
8 . . . . 3 5 . . 0
9 . . . . 4 5 . . 0
10 . . . . 5 5 . . 0
11 . . . . 6 5 . . 35
7 . . . . 1 6 . . 35
8 . . . . 2 6 . . 0
9 . . . . 3 6 . . 0
10 . . . . 4 6 . . 0
11 . . . . 5 6 . . 35
12 . . . . 6 6 . . -35

. . . . . . . . . 3.9

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