Jimbo
Jimbo
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
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April 23rd, 2013 at 8:59:22 AM permalink
Thanks Ahigh (Aaron) for your link to Mensa. I thought it was in that book, among other places, where I read about this. I just didn't take the time to look it up.

I regret that I don't agree with your notion that there is merit to playing systems or your rationalization for playing "Anything But Seven"--such as the edge per roll being lowered (?) or where it is advocated for use with those players who are expected (?) to roll fewer than the average number of sevens.

But I must say you are passionate about that which you write.

Sincerely, when there is time, it is always a pleasure to read your posts.
Jimbo
Jimbo
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April 23rd, 2013 at 9:10:09 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

so you can expect to win $38.50 per win and lose $41 per loss (this is averaged 30 wins vs 6 losses)

so on a $205 bet you can expect to lose (38.50 - 41) $2.50 per throw

-$2.50 / $205 wagered = -1.2195% expected value

I thought the math on determining the house edge for this system was pretty straightforward.

Using your suggested bet amounts, the total wins on 36 rolls of the dice is $1,155. The total losses are $1,230. That being the case, the house edge is 3.1446%

Again, I will be glad if someone corrects my math.
nezbit
nezbit
Joined: Apr 1, 2013
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April 23rd, 2013 at 9:28:17 AM permalink
lets just look at the per throw

3,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 pay $35
2 pays $70
12 pays $105

added up that equals

3/11 - 4 combos ($35*4) = $140
4/10 - 6 combos ($35*6) = $210
5/9 - 8 combos ($35*8) = $280
6/8 - 10 combos ($35*10) =$350
2 - 1 combo ($70*1) = $70
12 - 1 combo ($105*1) = $105

this is a grand total of $1155

7 - 6 combos (-$205*6) = $1230


$1155/36 = $32.08333
$1230/36 = -$34.16667

$-2.08333 per throw (sorry my math in above post was off, i divided by 30 above instead of 36)

can also find this number by $1155-$1230 = -$75, -$75/36 outcomes = -$2.08333

since we have $205 wagered on every roll and can expect to lose $2.08333 the expected value per throw is

-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626%

This is correct. - even better than above mentioned.
nezbit
nezbit
Joined: Apr 1, 2013
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April 23rd, 2013 at 9:42:56 AM permalink
lets look at the field bet

16 winners 20 losers (think we all know this)

$5 wagered on field has expected value of (12 pays triple)



$95 wins - 16 winners
$100 losses - 20 losers

95/36 = 2.63889
100/36 = -2.77778

-$0.13889 per throw

-0.13889/$5 = -2.7778%



12 pays double?

$90 wins - 16 winners
$100 losses - 20 losers

90/36 = 2.5
100/36 = -2.77778

-$0.27778 per throw

-0.27778/$5 = -5.5556%

in conclusion...dont bet field without the triple for the 12
DeMango
DeMango 
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April 23rd, 2013 at 9:46:22 AM permalink
My conclusion: Set the 6's on top and throw a knuckleball.
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Jimbo
Jimbo
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April 23rd, 2013 at 10:18:40 AM permalink
Quote: nezbit

$1155/36 = $32.08333
$1230/36 = -$34.16667

$-2.08333 per throw (sorry my math in above post was off, i divided by 30 above instead of 36)

can also find this number by $1155-$1230 = -$75, -$75/36 outcomes = -$2.08333

since we have $205 wagered on every roll and can expect to lose $2.08333 the expected value per throw is

-$2.08333/$205 = -1.01626%

I am not trying to be argumentative here.

I thought the proper formula for determining the house edge in this situation is:

(Loss) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss) less (Gain) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss).

Again, if someone else who is knowledgeable wants to chime in, they are welcome.

The fallacy of a hedge is the idea that you can combine different bets with different house edges and somehow, magically, come up with an overall lower house edge.

I agree with you that the house edge for the Field is 2.78%. The house edge for placing the 6 and 8 is 1.52%. The house edge for placing the 9 is 4.00%. I don't think there is any way mathematically possible to combine those bets to arrive at a combined lower house edge.

But as DeMango reminded me, I've only been on the Forum a month, so I am undoubtedly mistaken.
Jimbo
Jimbo
Joined: Mar 11, 2013
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April 23rd, 2013 at 11:10:23 AM permalink
Quote: Jimbo

(Loss) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss) less (Gain) divided by (Total of Gain/Loss).

I just saw where I had a "typo" when I first posted this and I edited/corrected my mistake. Sorry for the initial confusion.
tupp
tupp
Joined: Feb 9, 2012
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April 23rd, 2013 at 11:27:31 AM permalink
Quote: Jimbo

The fallacy of a hedge is the idea that you can combine different bets with different house edges and somehow, magically, come up with an overall lower house edge.


Let's say that one already has a $50 don't pass bet established with 4 as the point.

What is the house edge when one hedges that bet by buying the 4 for $30?
Jimbo
Jimbo
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April 23rd, 2013 at 11:44:22 AM permalink
Quote: tupp

Let's say that one already has a $50 don't pass bet established with 4 as the point.

What is the house edge when one hedges that bet by buying the 4 for $30?

I suppose if the $50 don't pass bet that you have made is a "life altering" amount--in the sense that the loss of $50 is something that you could not sustain--then only in that instance would you even remotely consider hedging the bet.

To begin with, on the don't pass with 4 as the point, you are already a 2 to 1 favorite to win the bet. There is nothing you can do to improve those odds. You can take a better advantage of your favorable position by laying odds against your don't pass bet. You are still the 2 to 1 favorite regardless.

When you buy the 4 for $30, all you've done is create a second, separate bet with its own individual house advantage. In this case 4.76%.

Combining the bet for buying the 4 with your original don't pass bet, all you've done is to take away from your initial advantage over the house.

If you goal is to be paid "something" regardless of the outcome of the resolution of the point number (4 in this case), then this is certainly a way to achieve that goal.

But as a "strategy," this would not make any sense, since the reason you are the 2 to 1 favorite with the 4 as the point is that you succeeded in getting to the point, i.e. you did not lose the don't pass bet on the come out throw when you are at a clear disadvantage.

Once you get pass the come out roll (on a don't bet), enjoy your advantage over the house. Don't diminish it.
superrick
superrick
Joined: Jul 14, 2010
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April 23rd, 2013 at 12:07:48 PM permalink
Quote:


Ahigh

Alright, I give up.

How about this opinion: only stupid people bet the field, DUH!!!!



There are no bad bets on any craps table if the are being rolled!

There are a lot of good bets, that the players will never get paid on!

No system works all the time, but they do work some of the time!

I've showed other players how to profit from the field if their timing is right!
There is nothing wrong with a field bet, if it pays 3 x's on the 12. It has a lower house edge then a lot of placed bets.

My wife loves the field bet and I hate to see her making it because she doesn't know when the time is right, nor does she want to take any advice as to when to place a field bet.

You can't play craps by only the math of the game, you are only there for the short run, not the long run when the math of the game kicks in.

Ahigh the problem with arguing with anybody on one of these boards is, you don't even know if they play the game more then a few times a year. Most live where they don't even have casinos, they have to travel hours just to get to one. They have their minds made up, and their way is the only way to bet the game!

If you live in a town like Vegas, your way of thinking about how you bet the game changes, because you see so many thing happening on the craps tables. If you want to win you have to be open on other ways of betting the game. There is no text book way of betting that will work all of the time.

There is a big difference between winning and surviving at the craps tables. Do you want to be a winner, or are you happy with just being a survivor?
I know good DI's that never make money because of the safe way they bet, sure they survive to play the next day, but they are always going to be losers, because of the way they play it safe. Their wins never cover what they will lose!
Note, all my post start with this is just my opinion...! You do good brada ..! superrick Winning comes from knowledge and skill when your betting and not reading fiction http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/index.php ...

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